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How busy have your trains been?

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Ianno87

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Agreed, I'd imagine most of the roles where people are still on furlough are unlikely to be ones associated with commuting. The point I was endeavouring to make was more that furlough could perhaps be providing some leisure journeys, which wouldn't otherwise be being made, simply by such people (as well as other groups) having more time on their hands than would have been the case.

This is why I'm rather sceptical of the idea which seems to float on here that the future of the railway is leisure - once everything settles down I don't think it will be, and in any case I'm not sure that's the most sensible base to build upon. The railway doesn't really do leisure well, look what happens when - for example - half of Nottingham decide they all went to get the 0900 Sprinter to Skegness, for example.

The railway excels with high-density commuter flows, which is what the roads generally don't cope with well. There's still plenty of scope to capture this market, even with stuff like working from home, but the industry (IMO) needs to focus on quality. The era of fleecing people with car park charges, and thinking that base standards of comfort will do, need to end.

I think it is fair to say the railway is likely nearing "peak leisure", at least until events etc get fully going again. It's not reasonable to expect that 100% of pre-Covid demand purely from the leisure market.
 
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bramling

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I think it is fair to say the railway is likely nearing "peak leisure", at least until events etc get fully going again. It's not reasonable to expect that 100% of pre-Covid demand purely from the leisure market.

This is my thoughts. There's been a lot of posts on here along the lines of leisure being the big thing going forward, and I really don't think it is, nor should it be.

I'm sure there's plenty of suppressed commuter demand which could quite happily replace a lot of any permanent losses (with those losses themselves not being a long-term given). The railway simply needs to offer something which attracts them. I could put myself in this sort of box - all things being equal I'd prefer to use the train to travel to/from London, however there's a number of factors currently combining to dissuade me from doing so. This week, for example, 14 single journeys either from or to London, only 3 of them by train, and that's not having to pay. My custom is there for the taking, but it isn't happening.
 

Bald Rick

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As I understand it, it's 55% of ticket sales by volume, i.e. the "hard number" of tickets sold.

One thing which is not clear is if sales of season tickets are being counted as one ticket ( as it's one transaction ) or if they're being counted on the normal assumed number of days of travel during the validity.

It’s based on the same methodology as normal, so is directly comparable. As an aside, season ticket sales are a loooong way down. Probably because commuting into London is in a similar state.


A party of smartly dressed young women were having a pink champagne party

Surely not in Yorkshire. Bet it was pink Cava.
 

Peter Mugridge

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As an aside, season ticket sales are a loooong way down. Probably because commuting into London is in a similar state.
There's quite a few season tickets being used by schoolchildren though - although of course these aren't annual ones but are term dated ones. My son uses one to get to and from school - at my expense, of course!
 

Bald Rick

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There's quite a few season tickets being used by schoolchildren though - although of course these aren't annual ones but are term dated ones. My son uses one to get to and from school - at my expense, of course!

Not many of those will commute into central London, though.
 

Killingworth

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It’s based on the same methodology as normal, so is directly comparable. As an aside, season ticket sales are a loooong way down. Probably because commuting into London is in a similar state.

Surely not in Yorkshire. Bet it was pink Cava.
Probably - but they were having a good time, and the state of the carriage was showing it. We walkers moved to the other end of the carriage.

Commuting from Sheffield to Manchester is may be only about 20%, at best, of the old normal. The people who'd buy first class season tickets to get a seat (but sometimes didn't and ended sitting on the floor) to work are the people who have most quickly adapted to working from home.
 

Killingworth

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There's quite a few season tickets being used by schoolchildren though - although of course these aren't annual ones but are term dated ones. My son uses one to get to and from school - at my expense, of course!
As do both my Essex grandsons. Hopefully that will help to build long term rail travel habits.
 

The Ham

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We’ve done this to death before, but the number of people giving up their cars and switching to rail because of reduced days in th office is going to be close to zero. Much more likely to be the other way round.

A 0.125% shift in the number of miles traveled by car (0.5% of all miles traveled) to rail would result in a 1% increase in miles traveled by rail. Such a shift, when the average distance per person driven is 7,000 miles would be a return trip of 4.5 miles each way a year.

Therefore one person using rail once a week for a 22 mile each way commute would cover 250 people's worth of modal shift, likewise a return trip of 110 numbers each way would be another 25 people's milage.

The other thing to bear in mind is that the number of people with a full driving license (as a percentage of that age group) is getting older. A decade ago it was those in their 40's with the highest percentage, now it's those in their 50's.

Now whilst there's (at least until a certain age) an ongoing increase within each cohort, this is typically fairly small after people reach 30.

Add in the inability to learn to drive and pass your driving test for many over the last 15 months and that's also going to have an impact on the numbers using rail (again fairly small overall).

As such whilst the numbers of each thing may be fairly small in terms of the number of miles traveled overall it could have a noticeable impact on rail use. Even so whilst it's unlikely to be huge, it's all likely to add to that rail use certainly isn't going to see ongoing use fall by 40%.

As such I'll still sick to my personal prediction of a fall in rail use in the 12 months after restrictions are lifted of 20% or less looking fairly likely and 15% or less being a reasonable probability with such a fall being fairly short lived (although still possibly down a little on 2019 figures, but probably still up on 2015 figures, for up to 5 years). Of course even such a prediction could be fairly pessimistic and it could get to within 5% of 2019 levels in that first year and overtake then soon after (bearing in mind that road use has already surpassed 2019 levels, it's just that much more of it is off peak).

Of course I could be overly optimistic and it could be that there's a 25% to 30% fall, however with significant numbers of city office workers still WFH full time (which defiantly isn't going to be the case) the current 55% rail use is most likely to only go one way and probably by quite some way. 1/3 more would get to to within the 25% to 30% fall range, whilst 40% more would take you back out the other side of that range.

Although the really difficult thing to predict is revenue, as if you only need to go in once a week would you bother living in Wimbledon if you could live in Winchester (as an example). As the time saving of living closer to work would be small but the house you could buy would be much bigger and you'd be much closer to countryside and the coast of you lived further out. As such your weekly rail costs could about the same or even actually a little more, but then that's offset by being mortgage free sooner/having a smaller mortgage.

Even if they stay put, by paying turn up and go prices then it doesn't save you 80% (probably closer to 2/3rds) of your session ticket costs if you go into the office 1 day a week (in the same way that driving in 1 day a week doesn't cut your overall car ownership costs by 80%, it's more likely to be less than 1/3, which is likely to alter the number of people getting their first car).

Even flexible season tickets, even if they were to save you some money on 1 day a week travel, wouldn't get you close to the same per trip cost as an annual season ticket.

As such there's the potential that revenue could reach 2019 figures before passenger numbers do.
 

LowLevel

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To illustrate my earlier point, the 0943 Sheffield to Liverpool today has 233 passengers on a 4 car 158.
 

Bald Rick

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All very optimistic. I see the numbers. Revenue is a long way behind passenger numbers. Long distance commuting into London is miles behind average passenger numbers - and it is this which provides the revenue. Rail had a very very high share of that market, there are very few people who used to commute by car on those journeys to swap to rail.

A more likely scenario is for those people who used to (say) spend £5-7k a year on a season ticket, and would more likely than not have driven to the station and paid another £1k a year parking. This was by far the better option compared to driving the whole way 5 days a week. Now, they might instead come into the office twice a week. But 2 x day returns will be not far off the cost of a season ticket (in many cases, more). But compared to the cost of driving twice a week, driving will now seem much more attractive - even if it is only to a suitable outer London station to avoid the worst of the traffic (Hillingdon, Stanmore, Potters Bar, etc).

People simply aren’t going to give up their cars. Not even a few of them.
 
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Jamesrob637

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To illustrate my earlier point, the 0943 Sheffield to Liverpool today has 233 passengers on a 4 car 158.

EMR aren't hourly on the Manchester to Sheffield line for now though so that may not be the fairest test, so to speak.
 

Ianno87

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All very optimistic. I see the numbers. Revenue is a long way behind passenger numbers. Long distance commuting into London is miles behind average passenger numbers - and it is this which provides the revenue. Rail had a very very high share of that market, there are very few people who used to commute by car on those journeys to swap to rail.

A more likely scenario is for those people who used to (say) spend £5-7k a year on a season ticket, and would more likely than not have driven to the station and laid another £1k a year parking. This was by far the better option compared to driving the whole way 5 day’s a week. Now, they might instead come into the office twice a week. But 2 x day returns will be not far off the cost of a season ticket (in many cases, more). But compared to the cost of driving twice a week, driving will now seem much more attractive - even if it is only to a suitable outer London station to avoid the worst of the traffic (Hillingdon, Stanmore, Potters Bar, etc).

People simply aren’t going to give up their cars. Not even a few of them.

Good analysis. And reason why "the railway" probably needs to think further about its long term pricing strategy. If the idea is to get the 2-day-a-week-ers, back on trains, then I fear Flexi Seasons as they stand won't cut the mustard - they are too expensive per day compared to the marginal cost of the same journey by car.
 

jon0844

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Road was very tempting for many during the pandemic because they were both empty and also allowed people to avoid close contact with others.

The roads aren't quite back to normal, but not far off and this will ultimately force a lot of people to give up if their particular route is likely to have a lot of traffic, with limited diversionary routes, and the issue of parking becoming a problem again.

At the start of the pandemic, many councils and other car parks didn't charge for parking. That's now over too.
 

Ianno87

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Road was very tempting for many during the pandemic because they were both empty and also allowed people to avoid close contact with others.

The roads aren't quite back to normal, but not far off and this will ultimately force a lot of people to give up if their particular route is likely to have a lot of traffic, with limited diversionary routes, and the issue of parking becoming a problem again.

At the start of the pandemic, many councils and other car parks didn't charge for parking. That's now over too.

But I guess there's a difference between using the train to avoid traffic every single day (which is tedious), or just tolerating the traffic for the couple of days that you will be going in if it's going to be saving you a reasonable amount of money versus the train.
 

Bald Rick

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Road was very tempting for many during the pandemic because they were both empty and also allowed people to avoid close contact with others.

I agree. It is also true that a not insignificant part of the population is still anxious about ‘the virus’ and will do anything to avoid crowded enclosed spaces, such as the train. And will continue to be so for some time. For them the car will rule.
 

Bald Rick

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But I guess there's a difference between using the train to avoid traffic every single day (which is tedious), or just tolerating the traffic for the couple of days that you will be going in if it's going to be saving you a reasonable amount of money versus the train.

Very true.

Ooh, posts didn’t merge!
 

jon0844

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But I guess there's a difference between using the train to avoid traffic every single day (which is tedious), or just tolerating the traffic for the couple of days that you will be going in if it's going to be saving you a reasonable amount of money versus the train.

It will very much depend on your individual drive, from the route you need to take (and distance) to what parking opportunities there are. Is there no parking after a certain time, or ample parking but at a cost?

To a lesser extent, there's the wear and tear of the vehicle if you start to do lots of mileage again. We've got two cars and the mileage over the last year or so has been so low that besides the cost of a basic service there's been almost no impact on the tyres or brakes. On the one hand, it makes sense to use the cars more, but on the other it has major cost benefits.
 

bramling

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All very optimistic. I see the numbers. Revenue is a long way behind passenger numbers. Long distance commuting into London is miles behind average passenger numbers - and it is this which provides the revenue. Rail had a very very high share of that market, there are very few people who used to commute by car on those journeys to swap to rail.

A more likely scenario is for those people who used to (say) spend £5-7k a year on a season ticket, and would more likely than not have driven to the station and paid another £1k a year parking. This was by far the better option compared to driving the whole way 5 days a week. Now, they might instead come into the office twice a week. But 2 x day returns will be not far off the cost of a season ticket (in many cases, more). But compared to the cost of driving twice a week, driving will now seem much more attractive - even if it is only to a suitable outer London station to avoid the worst of the traffic (Hillingdon, Stanmore, Potters Bar, etc).

People simply aren’t going to give up their cars. Not even a few of them.

I do wonder if we will come to a point where the roads will become sufficiently congested that people may reach the point where they *have* to do that, though - or at least have a big incentive to do it if they want a half bearable journey.

Just local to me, the A1 is now at the point where off-peak Mondays to Fridays it’s busier than it was pre-2019. I’ve no idea how much of this is leisure (I suspect some may be on Fridays), however White Van Man is as prevalent as he ever was, that seems to account for half the traffic at times. It wouldn’t take a massive amount extra to tip the road into “permanently congested through the day”. Add in the fact that some of the railhead stations will run out of parking quite quickly, and in the medium term that Sadiq Khan is proposing to convert many of the LU car parks to flats, and railheading isn’t quite as attractive as it might outwardly seem.
 

bramling

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I agree. It is also true that a not insignificant part of the population is still anxious about ‘the virus’ and will do anything to avoid crowded enclosed spaces, such as the train. And will continue to be so for some time. For them the car will rule.

I think this is overstated. A walk around my town centre shows restaurants and cafes to be invariably full to bursting point, with lip service to social distancing at best. I’m sure there *are* people who are genuinely anxious, but these may well be people who previously thought public transport was dirty, slow and unpleasant.

I’m sure there’s a cohort who are quite happy to pile into a restaurant when there’s a discount on offer, yet the train / office is *far* too dangerous! That’s a different issue though...
 

jon0844

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I think this is overstated. A walk around my town centre shows restaurants and cafes to be invariably full to bursting point, with lip service to social distancing at best. I’m sure there *are* people who are genuinely anxious, but these may well be people who previously thought public transport was dirty, slow and unpleasant.

I’m sure there’s a cohort who are quite happy to pile into a restaurant when there’s a discount on offer, yet the train / office is *far* too dangerous! That’s a different issue though...

The people who are back on the trains are likely the same people happy to go out and do whatever, but it's the ones who aren't in the pubs, shops and restaurants, or the trains that we need to encourage back out.
 

ChiefPlanner

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A factor for consideration to not using the train , is the eye watering costs of station car parking + train fares for 2 days or so a week. The loss of income for the train operators , sorry DfT must be significant and totally unsustainable - if not for commuters.
 

yorksrob

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Well, the Whitby line is certainly back to normal. Every seat taken this morning and people standing in the vestibules.
 

trainophile

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Man Picc to Milford Haven 1431 yesterday three coach 175, and every pair of seats taken, lots sharing with strangers, some preserving their personal space with baggage on the aisle seat. All drop-down seats occupied and probably half a dozen standing in each vestibule area too. Luggage racks full from Manchester. Considering that route is sometimes a two coach 158 it's a mercy that it wasn't worse.

Don't know if it was connected to the West Coast mainline wires problems yesterday, might have been people going Crewe to Shrewsbury to get to Birmingham.
 

Ianno87

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A factor for consideration to not using the train , is the eye watering costs of station car parking + train fares for 2 days or so a week. The loss of income for the train operators , sorry DfT must be significant and totally unsustainable - if not for commuters.

Take Cambridge for example. Anytime Day Return to King's Cross plus Parking is basically not much change out of £60 per day.

Unless employer is paying, that is a hefty chunk of that day's wage, particularly for lower earners.
 

paul1609

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Take Cambridge for example. Anytime Day Return to King's Cross plus Parking is basically not much change out of £60 per day.

Unless employer is paying, that is a hefty chunk of that day's wage, particularly for lower earners.
£60? Bargain. Ashford Kent (same distance) £75 on the all stations to Sevenoaks, £83.50 on high speed one.
 

yorksrob

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Will the Government have to move away from the policy of pricing trips to London for yuppie commuters and towards us normal plebs I wonder
 

ChiefPlanner

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Will the Government have to move away from the policy of pricing trips to London for yuppie commuters and towards us normal plebs I wonder

That comment is so "yesterday" - Yuppies were a feature of the 1980's and plebs not so much different. I shall make a note in my Filofax.

Yes , a good hard think is needed - the days of taken for granted seasons and "price gouging" (someone used that term here) , car parking has gone the way of the Dodo.
 

Killingworth

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To illustrate my earlier point, the 0943 Sheffield to Liverpool today has 233 passengers on a 4 car 158.
If it weren't raining this morning, and possibly as it was, I'd expect the Northern services out of Sheffield at 9.14, 10.14 and 11.14 were busy too. I've organised Saturday morning group walks into the Peak District from Dore in the past but didn't dare start by train as often we'd have had difficulty getting on, crowded out by full route users utilising the cheaper fares.

But isn't this the point? Younger leisure users are not afraid of the virus and are returning. Many older users are too, but some areas are doing better and worse than others, some even better than pre-Covid. Yesterday a large group of Chinese young people got off the 11.58 arrival at Dore from Manchester and took the 218 double deck bus for Chatsworth and Bakewell. The station car park entrance was blocked with backed up traffic as they paid for their tickets (I think they may get £1 off the Chatsworth entry price if they show the ticket - try explaining that to 12+ Chinese, and that half hourly buses alternate, Bakewell- Chatsworth and Chatsworth-Bakewell!)

Medium and longer term commuting and business flows are difficult to predict. Leisure patterns will be changing too. Reviews of all service needs will be necessary over the next few months and years, rolling stock, routes, frequency, timing and pricing. Priorities are changing and it's going to take time to adapt. We won't be going back to where we were in February 2020.
 

yorksrob

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That comment is so "yesterday" - Yuppies were a feature of the 1980's and plebs not so much different. I shall make a note in my Filofax.

Yes , a good hard think is needed - the days of taken for granted seasons and "price gouging" (someone used that term here) , car parking has gone the way of the Dodo.

Ha ha, you're not the first person to notice that about my references :lol:

I think your point is especially true of South Eastern which has had a premium "baked in" across all services for HS1.
 

ChiefPlanner

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Ha ha, you're not the first person to notice that about my references :lol:

I think your point is especially true of South Eastern which has had a premium "baked in" across all services for HS1.

Glad to see your sense of humour is there.

Value for money is going to be increasingly important for the ticket payer - and outwith the Metro area (for those on SE who actually pay on the Metro trains !) , the added in fares to pay for HS1 is going to be important , or a massive disbenefit to travel - but then what about the likes of the Midland Main line commuters paying for electrification to Corby. (and 360's !) , let alone the Gw beyond Didcot towards Parkway and Bath.
 
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