How busy have your trains been?

[yorksrob]

Glad to see your sense of humour is there.

Value for money is going to be increasingly important for the ticket payer - and outwith the Metro area (for those on SE who actually pay on the Metro trains !) , the added in fares to pay for HS1 is going to be important , or a massive disbenefit to travel - but then what about the likes of the Midland Main line commuters paying for electrification to Corby. (and 360's !) , let alone the Gw beyond Didcot towards Parkway and Bath.

And also the ECML, where passengers are paying a premium for an uplift in services two generations of trains ago. There needs to be a re-calibration of fares to the post-covid mix of commuters.

 

[Bald Rick]

I think this is overstated. A walk around my town centre shows restaurants and cafes to be invariably full to bursting point, with lip service to social distancing at best. I’m sure there *are* people who are genuinely anxious, but these may well be people who previously thought public transport was dirty, slow and unpleasant.

Well, by their nature, the people who are anxious wont be those out in restaurants etc.

In a fairly large survey at work, I reckon 10-15% of people are I the anxious category. I know quite a few myself, including one of my family.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

11.49 from Epsom this morning; full and standing ( as in about 90% of seats taken and many more standing than would have filled the remaining 10% ) from Worcester Park onwards.

Numerous IETs noted in and out of Paddington this afternoon ( between about 13.00 and 13.50 ) and evening ( at around 20.20 ) with about 70% to 80% seat occupancy regardless of whether 5 car or 9 car.

 

[Kite159]

Cambrian line today was busy in parts. The coast service having a good turnaround of passengers at a couple stations, plus from Aberystwyth heading back towards Shrewsbury, most seats taken on departure.

And that is with 158s, what will it be like with the new trains which have less seating!

159 on the 17;47 Salisbury to Basingstoke was busy from Andover, maybe a service which could do with being a pair of units if a spare unit is available.

 

[Cricketer8for9]

Friday evening. 20:09 Chelmsford to Stratford about 5 people in rearmost carriage of eight. But I wouldn’t expect in to London to be busy at that time unless it was a really nice day in the school holidays and the train had come from Southend.

At Stratford 20:30 off Liverpool St looked full, certainly not many seats and a few standing. But that might normally be busier.

I was told Chelmsford to London trains am peak were now quite full, but only about half the service was being run.

 

[The Ham]

All very optimistic. I see the numbers. Revenue is a long way behind passenger numbers. Long distance commuting into London is miles behind average passenger numbers - and it is this which provides the revenue. Rail had a very very high share of that market, there are very few people who used to commute by car on those journeys to swap to rail.

A more likely scenario is for those people who used to (say) spend £5-7k a year on a season ticket, and would more likely than not have driven to the station and laid another £1k a year parking. This was by far the better option compared to driving the whole way 5 day’s a week. Now, they might instead come into the office twice a week. But 2 x day returns will be not far off the cost of a season ticket (in many cases, more). But compared to the cost of driving twice a week, driving will now seem much more attractive - even if it is only to a suitable outer London station to avoid the worst of the traffic (Hillingdon, Stanmore, Potters Bar, etc).

People simply aren’t going to give up their cars. Not even a few of them.

I fully agree that currently things are bad, the difference in view appears to be that there's an acceptance that it's going to stay that way vs is going to see some more returning towards what it was like before Covid.

As I've said before there's significant numbers of companies where 75% of staff are WFH full time, with those WFH being the very people who use long distance commuting services (as those working being those living on their own or with inadequate space in their homes, who are much more likely to be those towards the start of there working life or at least less than 45 where they missed buying a house pre 2000) and they've either not been in the office at all or only a few times over the last 18 months (i.e. some going on once or twice a month for the last few months vs once restrictions ending most going on at least once a week).

Once they stay to return their use of rail (where they were those using it before) could add significant numbers and income to the rail network even if they are only working 1 day a week in the office.

As these are those who are the missing people from the rail network (longer distance commuting) their return would add a significant chunk to the rail income.

As I highlighted before they are likely to add 1/3 of the income that they previously paid if they return 1 day a week.

However as they would be going to Central London, they wouldn't drive and (unless they could be sure of a parking space) they are not overly likely to drive and then use the train to go the rest of the way. Especially given that would likely take them longer (unless it removes a change of train), also it could increase their parking costs.

 

[Azuma]

I think a lot of things change if/when a very significant portion of long distance commuters aren't buying annual season tickets. It changes the incentives and decisions people have to make so fundamentally for long-distance commuters that we'll be a in new world for that market. For example this group face the highest costs in time lost by travelling in to work, so they are likely to want to do it only when there's significant benefit to them. They are also likely to try to minimise their costs when they do travel in, as they will become very aware, if they weren't already, that annuals offer a large discount against the daily return. They might consider travelling off-peak, or driving to a nearer station - they can easily work out how much additional lost time/parking fees this would cost compared to savings from a reduced fare. There are also likely to be certain days they'll want to come in more than others (not Monday or Friday). From the TOCs' POV these people will be a lucrative marginal market that needs to be enticed to make marginal decisions to travel (perhaps promotions for peak time Friday trips?), but you also don't want to offer such good value that you encourage those still holding annual season tickets to give them up. You also need to deal with a less predictable revenue stream - what you previously got in a dolloped lump sum you will now get (less of) in drips and drabs across the year.

 

[Grumpy Git]

04.07.2021
08:18 Liv - Eus Avanti, coach B, about 20-25% full.

Piccadilly line to LHR T2, currently at Acton Town and the coach is 50% full, most with luggage.

Most pax removed their face masks for the entire journey!

 

[Jamesrob637]

Very true.

Ooh, posts didn’t merge!

I think the merge function has been dropped as it was causing unnecessary issues.

 

[james60059]

some preserving their personal space with baggage on the aisle seat.

That was the norm even pre-Covid on a lot of services, especially on my local line.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I was told Chelmsford to London trains am peak were now quite full, but only about half the service was being run.

Bingo. You have to ask yourself:

How busy would this particular line be now if we had a pre-COVID timetable?

 

[Bald Rick]

As I highlighted before they are likely to add 1/3 of the income that they previously paid if they return 1 day a week.

I agree with that (and the rest of that post) - but that is the issue. Getting back 1/3 of long distance* commuting revenue just moves the industry revenue position from catastrophic up to very bad.

*typically over 20 miles.

 

[Jamesrob637]

A few anecdotes from leisure travel at the end of June and beginning of this month:

Saturday 26th of June:
The 11:45 from Heaton Chapel to Manchester was the busiest train I've been on since March 2020. However, it's only 3-car and Heaton Chapel has nothing for half an hour afterwards. Had it been 6-car there would've been plenty of empty seats, so I'm talking relatively not absolutely.
The 11:57 6-car TPE around the Ordsall Choke to Victoria wasn't too busy.
The 12:22 5-car TPE to Lea Green had around 20 per carriage, so still way down on pre-COVID levels, however this hasn't been booked 5-car for very long, and only literally weeks prior to the first lockdown.
The 22:00 3-car from Earlestown to Burnage (two late trains to Heaton Chapel were cancelled so I said to myself "sod it: I'm going to Burnage and walking the 25 minutes or so home) had around 20 per carriage until Manchester then was very lightly loaded south of Manchester. Newton area is popular among drinkers.

Sunday 3rd of July:
The 16:16 6-car from Heaton Chapel to Manchester was very lightly-loaded: 10 per carriage. Might've been a bit too early for those just going to see the match in town, but a bit too late for the all-day drinkers, so in a bit of a sweet spot.
A double tram from Piccadilly to Bury at 16:40 was lightly-loaded, as was a double tram back at 22:58 which I thought would make the last train to Heaton Chapel but alas time was tight so I bailed at Market Street and walked to St Peter's Square for the last tram to East Didsbury (I had a day ticket anyway) which wasn't too busy. A little busier than the one from Bury but nowhere near pre-COVID. Prior to COVID, trams ran to East Didsbury as late as past 1am on Friday and Saturday night.

So even leisure travel is quite patchy. England's great performance in the Euros is bringing people out, but had we been knocked out sooner, I reckon most trains would still be pretty quiet.

 

[Kite159]

18:25 Exeter - Waterloo tonight, boarded at Salisbury and it was very busy in the front unit, every set of seats taken, including the pull down seats in the vestibule areas. I ended up on a pull-down seat in the wheelchair space.

Although it seems to be getting back to normal as those trains were always busy before Covid with weekend getaway people returning to London.

 

[squizzler]

Whilst that will not return to 100% office based for most of those we'd still likely see rail commuting get to about 60% (3 days a week average), not because those who did so before all return to working 3 days a week. Rather because there's likely to be some who didn't use rail before (mostly drove), but because of the infrequent nature of using a car could find it hard to justify the cost of a second or third car and so use the train some of the time.

We’ve done this to death before, but the number of people giving up their cars and switching to rail because of reduced days in th office is going to be close to zero. Much more likely to be the other way round.

I follow with interest this long running debate between our resident highway and railway professionals. The funny thing is that both are competing in doing down their respective modes.

As the highways expert I would give more credence to @The Ham's opinions on motoring issues. There are likely to be a lot of people taking advantages of the very high prices commanded by used cars to get rid of their surplus. The high used car prices is partly demand from the transport dodgers Baldrick identifies, but also significantly due to the suppressed manufacture not keeping up replacement levels.

@Bald Rick as our rail industry insider is absolutely the forum's expert on the rail industry and has the data to hand (not to mention ability to interpret it). There is no doubt that the industry has just come out of a torrid situation and the customer receipts evidently to paint a grim picture. However I wonder if wider society's realisation that a green recovery is needed to address the climate emergency and improve public health has blindsided many in their industry silos - such is the dizzying pace of change in this area.

 

[ScotGG]

All very optimistic. I see the numbers. Revenue is a long way behind passenger numbers. Long distance commuting into London is miles behind average passenger numbers - and it is this which provides the revenue. Rail had a very very high share of that market, there are very few people who used to commute by car on those journeys to swap to rail.

A more likely scenario is for those people who used to (say) spend £5-7k a year on a season ticket, and would more likely than not have driven to the station and paid another £1k a year parking. This was by far the better option compared to driving the whole way 5 days a week. Now, they might instead come into the office twice a week. But 2 x day returns will be not far off the cost of a season ticket (in many cases, more). But compared to the cost of driving twice a week, driving will now seem much more attractive - even if it is only to a suitable outer London station to avoid the worst of the traffic (Hillingdon, Stanmore, Potters Bar, etc).

People simply aren’t going to give up their cars. Not even a few of them.

Maybe Network Rail will finally wake up and really push for some unused land around stations and lines in cities to be used to build new, car-free homes.

The amount of brownfield land that lies empty near station that isn't important to infrastructure needs is pretty big in some cities - and demand for homes in the UK isn't going away. Latest population annual increase was near 300k, and that's before demographic changes such as more people living alone.

It's a key area to grow passenger numbers.

 

[ScotGG]

Slowly getting busier - on dropping no 3 off for the 0710 or 0726 fast train , it is now common to see commuters around walking to the station in some numbers. Not so long ago , it was a sight to be commented on.Drop off's also up.

Off peak loadings are very good - to an extent - fast calls at West Hampstead on the down produce maybe 15 or so passengers - about right pre March 2020 , and today's run out to Tunbridge Wells showed how busy the Hastings line is off peak. No one "disgusted" though .......

What is striking is the loadings on North Kent Thameslink Rainham trains - really quite decent ......

This being SE Metro land though, many won't be paying given unstaffed or open stations and no onboard staff.

However given so many new and car-free residential developments along that line it shouldn't be a surprise that usage is high.

 

[paul1609]

This being SE Metro land though, many won't be paying given unstaffed or open stations and no onboard staff.

However given so many new and car-free residential developments along that line it shouldn't be a surprise that usage is high.

I drove past the car parks at both Frant and Etchingham on the Hastings Line last week at times pre covid when theyd have been full and overflowing. Both only contained around 20 cars. About 20 percent of capacity at Frant 10 at Etchingham. A regular from my cricket club who works for London Underground reckons quite a few of those are staff pass holders and that the peak trains are basically running empty until around Tonbridge/Tunbridge Wells on both the Hastings and SEML.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

I drove past the car parks at both Frant and Etchingham on the Hastings Line last week at times pre covid when theyd have been full and overflowing. Both only contained around 20 cars. About 20 percent of capacity at Frant 10 at Etchingham. A regular from my cricket club who works for London Underground reckons quite a few of those are staff pass holders and that the peak trains are basically running empty until around Tonbridge/Tunbridge Wells on both the Hastings and SEML.

I think there is a difference between rural Kent and South East London. Southeastern metro services are much busier and whenever I've Hastings services at the weekend, pretty much all seats have been taken. The morning peak is still very quiet, but I don't think the car parks at Frant and Etchingham give an overall view about how passenger numbers are recovering across the country. The recovery is very patchy, with some areas doing much better than others.

 

[infobleep]

Last weekend I went from Guildford to Winchester and back for the Bar Fair.

I just missed a late-running train from Guildford, which was great as it meant I didn't hang around in Woking for just under 40 minutes.

Yes, the 10 am to Winchester was delayed owing to a track defect.

I don't know if the lines are bidirectional between Micheldever and Winchester but I'm guessing not. If so I got to enjoy some single line working. I don't know if a pilotman was required.

I do know the train had some people on board but not as many as I would have expected.

Some may have got on the 10:34 to Portsmouth which departed first.

However, we overtook that train en route.

Much busier was the 9:49 Guildford to Waterloo. Lots of young people. I wonder where they were going exactly

After a nice day, I headed back during the football. England was playing Germany. I was prepared with my tablet and Bluetooth speaker.

The train wasn't so busy so I was able to put it for myself and a couple of others I was with, without disturbing others. Having a table on a 444 is great, especially the ones behind the loo, where we sat.

I then got stuck in Woking for 30 minutes as I'd missed my connection. Still, I had someone to chat to for a time and I got some money back at the 30-minute rate.

Yesterday, 8 July, I headed to London, with a stop in Surbiton. I wasn't ready to get the 9:35 but I thought no problem I'll get the 9:49 and pick up the 9:59.

Alas, I hadn't realised the 9:35 skips Farncombe and the 9:49 is the 9:61 as it stops at Farncombe. Thus I missed the 9:59. The 9:51 was reasonably busy and I had to walk to get a seat and then it was in between a row before and after me that had someone sat in them.

The 10:03 from Woking was much more sedate. I walked down to coach 4 and maybe 1 other person was in it.

It picked up on route but nothing like a or the first train I'd got from Guildford.

This evening I left where I was and forgot my mask so had to go back. With a wait for a bus from Kingston. I missed the 17:48 service from Hampton Court. A 450 run for the benefit of Wimbledon. Despite not stopping at Earlsfield, it still would have taken 15 minutes to Clapham Junction.

So I waited for the 17:56. It was reasonably busy. I walked down a little to get a seat.

Once at Clapham Junction I rushed round to platform 12 and managed to catch the 18:13 to London Victoria. I was running late and wanted to be near the front so I walked down.

Eventually, I soon reached a point where someone was standing by the internal door. I thought why are you doing that. Turns out it was the front carriage.

The train service from Reigate was only 4 carriages.

So I checked if the train was shirt formed and no it wasn't. Surely that is a waste of fast mainline capacity. The train was reasonably busy but I didn't have far to go.

Later on, I got a tube train from Sloane Square to Embankment.

I tried to get my hold card discount added but the person said they didn't have the right card to operate the ticket vending machines. So I took a chance and got it added at Embankment. They weren't forthcoming with suggestions as to where I could get it added until I asked. I will be checking if the discount gets applied later.

The train was reasonably busy but not rammed. I stood the whole way.

Later on, I ambled over to London Waterloo as I either had plenty of time to make a train or it was extremely touch and go. I decided to take it easy.

The 22:30 was exceptionally busy but busy enough. I decided to go towards the front, where it would be quieter.

This evening I got the 17:49 Guildford to Woking. I was fortunate that Fareham and Cosham stops were cancelled due to signalling issues. However, due to there being a gap between trains of 58 minutes since the last train ran from Guildford to Woking, the platform was busy, as was the train.

Good job this is run by LNER. It was a 444 10 car service I decided to stay in the vestibule of coach 4. I was 2m away from two people sat down I reckon.

However one of the girls started sneezing and as they both had their masks under their chin I decided to go elsewhere. They are probably an age where they haven't been vaccinated or fully vaccinated yet, assuming they are over 18. They weren't eating. It's the job of the British Transport Police to deal with this but of course, by the time they would arrive the train would be at its destination and I don't think such things can be deal with retrospectively so best leave them to it and go elsewhere.

I walked down to coach 3 but that looked busy so I went to coach 5 and actually found 2 seats free.

I was lucky that I was aiming for that train, given the delay. No idea if they proactively offered passengers any alternatives during the 58-minute gap.

A short time ago I got the 20;57 Woking to Guildford, which was also a 444. Only 5 cars this time and it was busy. One person with a bike was sat on the floor. I got a seat in the disabled area. Most pairs of seats in coach 3 had at least 1 person in them.

On this basis, I would say trains are getting busier. I am making more journeys to different places.

 

[yorksrob]

I got the Scotland- Liverpool express today. My goodness, loke the old days - all seats taken, people standing in the vestibules.

 

[Kite159]

Was on the Waterloo - Exeter/Yeovil/Bristol train yesterday evening from Basingstoke, front 3 coaches had no spare pairs of seats from a brief glance, although found a seat in the middle 3 coaches.

Can tell peak time loadings are still down when services which would have been 8 or 9 coaches pre Covid are 5 or 6 coaches.

Although how much of that was simply down to London to Andover/Salisbury being effectively 1tph (as the other train starts from Basingstoke and the connection from London is the Exeter train)

 

[Ianno87]

Yesterday, 1000 Cambridge-Birmingham New Street. Decent load (40-50% of seats taken), with plenty of churn along the way..probably lightened out slightly after Leicester.

Back on the 1722 from New Street (would've been packed pre-Covid) - maybe 50% of seats occupied at New Street, gradually thinning out after Leicester. Dead after Peterborough. Maybe 7 or 8 people alighted with me at Cambridge.

Still some way to go in passenger numbers.

(Side note: XC really need to end their bizarre policy of severely restricting the number of reservable seats - at least increase the number available, especially in 170s. It didn't seem to be particularly discouraging turn up and go passengers, mind)

 

[DanNCL]

I did the following itinerary over two days last week, and these are my observations:
Day 1
06:22 Newcastle - Edinburgh. 5 car 801, fewer than 20 passengers on the entire train, all of whom apart from myself were in standard class. Pre pandemic this service carried enough passengers from Dunbar to fill standard class on a 9 car HST.
09:28 Edinburgh - Montrose. 4 car HST, roughly 75% of seats in standard class taken, didn't see first class.
12:21 Montrose - Dundee. 3 car 170, roughly 75% of seats in standard class taken, didn't see first class.
13:34 Dundee - Leuchars. 3 car 170, roughly 50% of seats in standard class taken, didn't see first class.
(slightly off topic, I did a bus return from Leuchars to St Andrews during this gap, and had both buses to myself)
15:20 Leuchars - Edinburgh. 4 car HST, roughly 90% of seats in standard class taken, didn't see first class.

Day 2
09:44 Haymarket - Bathgate. 6 car 334, roughly 40% of seats taken.
11:41 Bathgate - Glasgow Queen Street. 6 car 334, roughly 40% of seats taken to start with, increasing to near 90% by the time Queen Street was reached.
13:04 Glasgow Central - Ayr. 3 car 380, standing room only between Paisley and Troon, roughly 90% of seats taken for the rest of the journey.
15:25 Ayr - Glasgow Central. 3 car 380, roughly 90% of seats taken
16:40 Glasgow Central - Carlisle. 11 car 390, roughly 70% of seats in standard class taken, didn't see first class.
18:39 Carlisle - Newcastle. 2 car 156, roughly 75% of seats taken, same as was common for this service pre pandemic.

Most of these services, to me at least, seemed to be near pre pandemic levels. The very notable exception to this is the LNER service. I also saw another LNER service during the course of the day at Montrose, where I counted 10 passengers on the entire train, on another service that pre pandemic was normally well loaded. Looks like the general public have started ditching LNER en-masse.

 

[Ianno87]

I did the following itinerary over two days last week, and these are my observations:
Day 1
06:22 Newcastle - Edinburgh. 5 car 801, fewer than 20 passengers on the entire train, all of whom apart from myself were in standard class. Pre pandemic this service carried enough passengers from Dunbar to fill standard class on a 9 car HST.

(Snip)

. Looks like the general public have started ditching LNER en-masse.

Looks simply more like 9-5 Edinburgh commuters haven't returned yet.

 

[DanNCL]

(Snip)



Looks simply more like 9-5 Edinburgh commuters haven't returned yet.

I also saw another LNER service during the course of the day at Montrose, where I counted 10 passengers on the entire train, on another service that pre pandemic was normally well loaded

See what I've just quoted above, that doesn't explain the lack of passengers at Montrose on an Aberdeen bound service, previously dominated by the leasure market, that was previously well loaded and indeed the ScotRail services on the route are back to pre pandemic levels.

 

[Ianno87]

See what I've just quoted above, that doesn't explain the lack of passengers at Montrose on an Aberdeen bound service, previously dominated by the leasure market, that was previously well loaded and indeed the ScotRail services on the route are back to pre pandemic levels.

Surely that is Compulsory Reservations having the intended effect? LNER less weighed down by local passengers, and concentrating on those travelling longer distances.

 

[DanNCL]

Surely that is Compulsory Reservations having the intended effect? LNER less weighed down by local passengers, and concentrating on those travelling longer distances.

The intended effect is surely to stop them being packed, not to have them as fresh air carriers.

 

[Ianno87]

The intended effect is surely to stop them being packed, not to have them as fresh air carriers.

Presumably long distance leisure travel is also suppressed by ongoing travel uncertainty (especially across the England-Scotland border), and restrictions on what you can do when you get there, plus face masks to some extent or other.

 

[DanNCL]

Presumably long distance leisure travel is also suppressed by ongoing travel uncertainty (especially across the England-Scotland border), and restrictions on what you can do when you get there, plus face masks to some extent or other.

If so then why wasn’t the Avanti service I was on from Glasgow to Carlisle similarly empty?