How has India managed to avoid a second wave of infection until now?

[brad465]

There are reports that in India the Government has ordered social media platforms to take down posts criticising the Government's handling of the current situation, which doesn't sound good.

 

[102 fan]

What is the percentage of deaths in India? It's just the news is great at telling the deaths, but omit that there's 1.3 billion of a population.

 

[kristiang85]

What is the percentage of deaths in India? It's just the news is great at telling the deaths, but omit that there's 1.3 billion of a population.

This graph illustrates it well...

 

[35B]

Heathrow isn't the only international port of entry. And reading some of the reports it seems that a lack of staffing is as much an issue as enhanced checks.

It is - because the staffing is being dictated by the distances required around each person doing the checks.

Two thoughts...

1. The group of people currently likely to want to travel between India and the U.K. are more likely than average to be dual passport holders — the passport with the India stamp need never be seen.
2. If it were so easy to identify those fraudulently completing a passenger locator form, we wouldn’t need to be issuing “deterrent” threats (such as 10 years in prison) for doing so.

Noted and understood, though I believe the airlines advise which passport a passenger is travelling on, so making it harder for people to play that trick successfully. But as the time per person is moving from a couple of minutes with all paperwork completed to 30-40 if it isn’t, that suggests quite close examination of papers where there is room for doubt.

 

[nlogax]

This graph illustrates it well...

This graph only illustrates what's documented but in reality that gulf is likely to be much wider. It could be argued the UK has overstated deaths due to Covid. Not the case in India where there has been widespread underreporting of cases and deaths going back to the first wave in the subcontinent.

 

[Bantamzen]

It is - because the staffing is being dictated by the distances required around each person doing the checks.

Don't the immigration officers sit in booths? And frankly "social distancing" would be the worst excuse, if staff at supermarkets can sit in the middle of queues and amongst colleagues, there's really no excuse.

 

[35B]

Don't the immigration officers sit in booths? And frankly "social distancing" would be the worst excuse, if staff at supermarkets can sit in the middle of queues and amongst colleagues, there's really no excuse.

I'm not saying it's an excuse - I'm saying that the airports are complaining about the physical layout used by Border Force staff fundamentally limits the number who can be on duty at any one time. IMHO a classic example of an organisation working in terms of it's own interests, and failing to consider the broader implications of it's approach; in this case protecting (reasonably) it's own staff but at the cost of making spread among customers more likely by imposing close proximity on them for longer.

 

[kristiang85]

This graph only illustrates what's documented but in reality that gulf is likely to be much wider. It could be argued the UK has overstated deaths due to Covid. Not the case in India where there has been widespread underreporting of cases and deaths going back to the first wave in the subcontinent.

Sorry, I meant it illustrates how raw numbers don't give much information without the context of the denominator (the population).

But even if India was reporting properly, I still think the numbers wouldn't reach the UK's per 100,000 at the moment. For what it's worth, I think the UK figures might have been underreported last spring (as testing really wasn't up to scratch at that point) and overreported this winter. So I'm not sure it makes too much difference, but then again comparing the two is apples and oranges.

It seems in Europe and the US, figures are mostly diverging - I expect India to do the same, so overall we would expect maybe a million COVID deaths, which is a grim number. However, in the context of 10m deaths a year in that country, it isn't extraordinary in the context of this pandemic.

 

[35B]

Sorry, I meant it illustrates how raw numbers don't give much information without the context of the denominator (the population).

But even if India was reporting properly, I still think the numbers wouldn't reach the UK's per 100,000 at the moment. For what it's worth, I think the UK figures might have been underreported last spring (as testing really wasn't up to scratch at that point) and overreported this winter. So I'm not sure it makes too much difference, but then again comparing the two is apples and oranges.

It seems in Europe and the US, figures are mostly diverging - I expect India to do the same, so overall we would expect maybe a million COVID deaths, which is a grim number. However, in the context of 10m deaths a year in that country, it isn't extraordinary in the context of this pandemic.

India might or might not. But the impact of the current wave of Covid cases in those places affected is dramatic, and having a real impact on the people who live there.

 

[Bantamzen]

India might or might not. But the impact of the current wave of Covid cases in those places affected is dramatic, and having a real impact on the people who live there.

Covid is far from the most dramatic thing that happens there. A nation of over 1.3 billion people, in a semi-permanent state of war with Pakistan, incredible poverty, huge slums, many people living on the streets relying on handouts, a medical system incapable of even basic support for many, and to add to all their woes, countries like us have reduced aid.

Don't get me wrong, I love India and its people. I've worked and lived amongst many and had some wonderful times with people whose histories come from there. But please don't for one moment join the sickening virtue signalling that has erupted in the last few days. I am totally fed up with people who search the globe for reasons to make us feel guilty. If you want to lay guilt, ask our government why they are reducing International aid at this time!

 

[kristiang85]

India might or might not. But the impact of the current wave of Covid cases in those places affected is dramatic, and having a real impact on the people who live there.

It is indeed a bad situation right now, but it is in addition to an already poor health background in India, which deserves more attention. I'm pretty sure if you sent cameras into a hospital on any given day in an Indian city, you will find heartwrenching stories of people losing loved ones from what should be avoidable causes of death. For example, look at the annual toll from these conditions in India:
- Diarrhoea - 720,000 (1,973 per day)
- Tuberculosis - 450,000 (1,232 per day)
- Neonatal disorders - 430,000 (1,178 per day)

And then you consider the 1.7m people who die a year from respiratory problems related to pollution (which probably doesn't help with COVID health either) Hell, around 17,000 people die a year being hit by trains (46 per day). Again, completely avoidable deaths.

When you look at the population density, the inequality and poverty, and that I doubt the Indian government are doing much to help those who can't work whilst locking down (happy to be wrong on that though?), it is quite surprising it's taken this long for the pandemic to hit India this hard. But in the context of what goes on there all the time, this is but a blip on an already poorly maintained health system (well, for certain sections of society anyway).

The good news is that India does, given its chaotic reputation, have a fairly good infrastructure with the tech and people-power that can quickly get the vaccines out (it produces 60% of the world's vaccines) that will combat this wave, and they do not seem hesitant in offering cheap and effective treatments (unlike in Europe). I really don't think it's going to completely spiral out of control beyond the kind of proportions we've seen in parts of the West, although the media are going out of their way to find the worst spots and most heartbreaking images to make it look like it will. They did the same with Brazil, which is now on the way down and has proportional numbers down on many European countries. It doesn't help that traditionally in India many do prefer the open cremations of their dead for religious reasons, and this provides many a dramatic photo opportunity to splash on the front pages.

However, once this surge is over, the media will move on somewhere else, and Indians will keep dying of TB, diarrhorea, in childbirth, etc. and hardly anybody will give a toss. But those numbers keep getting posted consistently every year, which will dwarf what COVID will kill in this short period.

I will also say this highlights the utter selfishness of the West's obsession with COVID, hyping up its dangers to parts of the population who really won't be badly affected by it, and the mass buying up of vaccines that should be prioritised to the world's vulnerable. Once the UK has vaccinated the over 50s twice, that should be it - many more lives can be saved if the doses going to the likes of me in my mid 30s could be sent over to the countries that need it. It feels quite wrong, to be honest. I've banged on here many times about how COVID is sucking up funds and attention from much more serious health concerns worldwide and transferring the money from the poor to the richer West again, and the vaccinations are just one manifestation of this.

Covid is far from the most dramatic thing that happens there. A nation of over 1.3 billion people, in a semi-permanent state of war with Pakistan, incredible poverty, huge slums, many people living on the streets relying on handouts, a medical system incapable of even basic support for many, and to add to all their woes, countries like us have reduced aid.

Don't get me wrong, I love India and its people. I've worked and lived amongst many and had some wonderful times with people whose histories come from there. But please don't for one moment join the sickening virtue signalling that has erupted in the last few days. I am totally fed up with people who search the globe for reasons to make us feel guilty. If you want to lay guilt, ask our government why they are reducing International aid at this time!

Edit: Ah this is a much more succinct version of what I posted above; I very much agree.

 

[yorksrob]

I will also say this highlights the utter selfishness of the West's obsession with COVID, hyping up its dangers to parts of the population who really won't be badly affected by it, and the mass buying up of vaccines that should be prioritised to the world's vulnerable. Once the UK has vaccinated the over 50s twice, that should be it - many more lives can be saved if the doses going to the likes of me in my mid 30s could be sent over to the countries that need it. It feels quite wrong, to be honest. I've banged on here many times about how COVID is sucking up funds and attention from much more serious health concerns worldwide and transferring the money from the poor to the richer West again, and the vaccinations are just one manifestation of this.

Whilst I agree with a lot of what you're saying, I don't really agree with this sentiment.

I'd rather wealthy countries went down the route of manufacturing vaccines for their own populations, whilst at the same time funding manufacture elsewhere for lower income countries, rather than ignoring the benefits of a more widespread vaccination programme within their own populations. Realistically, there should be more overall capacity for the manufacture of vaccines in the developing world and in the longer term and this needs to be addressed, however given that India already has 60% of vaccine manufacturing capability and still finds itself in this situation anyway, there's a limit to what could be achieved at this stage by halting our vaccine roll out here. "Wealthy countries" also needs to include wealthy countries in the far and middle East, not just "The West" as well.

 

[35B]

Covid is far from the most dramatic thing that happens there. A nation of over 1.3 billion people, in a semi-permanent state of war with Pakistan, incredible poverty, huge slums, many people living on the streets relying on handouts, a medical system incapable of even basic support for many, and to add to all their woes, countries like us have reduced aid.

Don't get me wrong, I love India and its people. I've worked and lived amongst many and had some wonderful times with people whose histories come from there. But please don't for one moment join the sickening virtue signalling that has erupted in the last few days. I am totally fed up with people who search the globe for reasons to make us feel guilty. If you want to lay guilt, ask our government why they are reducing International aid at this time!

How about I’m commenting because colleagues and, yes, friends are struggling right now.

It is indeed a bad situation right now, but it is in addition to an already poor health background in India, which deserves more attention. I'm pretty sure if you sent cameras into a hospital on any given day in an Indian city, you will find heartwrenching stories of people losing loved ones from what should be avoidable causes of death. For example, look at the annual toll from these conditions in India:
- Diarrhoea - 720,000 (1,973 per day)
- Tuberculosis - 450,000 (1,232 per day)
- Neonatal disorders - 430,000 (1,178 per day)

And then you consider the 1.7m people who die a year from respiratory problems related to pollution (which probably doesn't help with COVID health either) Hell, around 17,000 people die a year being hit by trains (46 per day). Again, completely avoidable deaths.

When you look at the population density, the inequality and poverty, and that I doubt the Indian government are doing much to help those who can't work whilst locking down (happy to be wrong on that though?), it is quite surprising it's taken this long for the pandemic to hit India this hard. But in the context of what goes on there all the time, this is but a blip on an already poorly maintained health system (well, for certain sections of society anyway).

The good news is that India does, given its chaotic reputation, have a fairly good infrastructure with the tech and people-power that can quickly get the vaccines out (it produces 60% of the world's vaccines) that will combat this wave, and they do not seem hesitant in offering cheap and effective treatments (unlike in Europe). I really don't think it's going to completely spiral out of control beyond the kind of proportions we've seen in parts of the West, although the media are going out of their way to find the worst spots and most heartbreaking images to make it look like it will. They did the same with Brazil, which is now on the way down and has proportional numbers down on many European countries. It doesn't help that traditionally in India many do prefer the open cremations of their dead for religious reasons, and this provides many a dramatic photo opportunity to splash on the front pages.

However, once this surge is over, the media will move on somewhere else, and Indians will keep dying of TB, diarrhorea, in childbirth, etc. and hardly anybody will give a toss. But those numbers keep getting posted consistently every year, which will dwarf what COVID will kill in this short period.

I will also say this highlights the utter selfishness of the West's obsession with COVID, hyping up its dangers to parts of the population who really won't be badly affected by it, and the mass buying up of vaccines that should be prioritised to the world's vulnerable. Once the UK has vaccinated the over 50s twice, that should be it - many more lives can be saved if the doses going to the likes of me in my mid 30s could be sent over to the countries that need it. It feels quite wrong, to be honest. I've banged on here many times about how COVID is sucking up funds and attention from much more serious health concerns worldwide and transferring the money from the poor to the richer West again, and the vaccinations are just one manifestation of this.



Edit: Ah this is a much more succinct version of what I posted above; I very much agree.

The poverty there does deserve more attention. But the feedback I’m getting today is about how colleagues are struggling today, in a way that is completely different in scale to what they’re used to, and at all levels.

 

[HSTEd]

It appears that the Government has now diverted steel plant oxygen tonnage to hospitals.

I do wonder why this took so long.

Indeed if I had been doing inexpensive resilience planning over the last year, that is definitely something I would have made arrangements for by now.

 

[Bantamzen]

How about I’m commenting because colleagues and, yes, friends are struggling right now.

Then I'm sure you are appalled at the UK government's decision to cut overseas aid right around the time poor countries are struggling, aid which could and should be helping the people of countries like India, especially those in the lower castes who will be suffering the most. I have friends and colleagues whose families live in India, and the plight there is tragic but it is far from the first, nor will it be the last crisis they will . What I disapprove of (and this is not aimed at you BTW) is people using what is happening there to guilt people here into pushing back on easements, or feeling guilty for wanting to get back to normal here. There is a definite feeling that some people want us to stop we are doing "because India".

 

[35B]

Then I'm sure you are appalled at the UK government's decision to cut overseas aid right around the time poor countries are struggling, aid which could and should be helping the people of countries like India, especially those in the lower castes who will be suffering the most. I have friends and colleagues whose families live in India, and the plight there is tragic but it is far from the first, nor will it be the last crisis they will . What I disapprove of (and this is not aimed at you BTW) is people using what is happening there to guilt people here into pushing back on easements, or feeling guilty for wanting to get back to normal here. There is a definite feeling that some people want us to stop we are doing "because India".

I'm not sure I see the causal connection with aid budgets, especially in the complexity of a country like India which has both extreme poverty but also the wealth to make massive investments in projects like space travel.

As for the impact of events in India right now on how the UK relaxes restrictions, I largely agree with you that the detail of what's happening in India has limited relevance to what happens here. However, I do regard it as a serious cautionary tale on the dangers of complacency.

 

[londiscape]

Hope this puts the current situation in India in a bit of context. There is a massive scale difference between India and the UK, as a country with a population of over 1.4 billion people any absolute numbers need to be divided by 20 to get statistical equivalence with UK. Also keep in mind the state of poverty and general healthcare in India - which renders any comparison ultimately futile in any case.

India’s Current ‘COVID Crisis’ in Context - Real Left

The mainstream media’s reporting on the ‘COVID crisis’ in India has clearly been governed by a global approach to messaging that appears to aim at ramping up fear of ‘new variants’ and coerce compliance to vaccination during a period of increasing resistance, both in India and abroad. However...

leftlockdownsceptics.com

The mainstream media’s reporting on the ‘COVID crisis’ in India has clearly been governed by a global approach to messaging that appears to aim at ramping up fear of ‘new variants’ and coerce compliance to vaccination during a period of increasing resistance, both in India and abroad. However, as somebody who lived in India for 8 years in total until December 2019, and as the fundraiser for a food bank in Bihar that has been alleviating the hunger caused by lockdowns [1], I have daily contact with people in India as well as some context for the figures being presented amidst the ongoing alarm.

Firstly, the media are presenting cases and deaths in whole numbers that sound horrendous until you convert them to percentages of India’s huge population of 1.4 billion people. The current daily death rate in India of 2,600 is equivalent to 126 deaths per day in the UK, way below our peak rate and closer to what we are experiencing now. See the graph produced by JHU below to understand the context [2].

Secondly, even as the alleged COVID deaths reach their peak more people die of diarrhoea every day in India and have done for years, mostly due to a lack of clean water and sanitation creating a terrain ripe for the flourishing of communicable disease [3].

Thirdly, Delhi, the focus of the media’s messaging, and the source of many of the media’s horrifying scenes of suffering, has the most toxic air in the world which often leads to the city having to close down due to the widespread effects on respiratory health [4, 5, 6]. This even led to Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul having to flee the city in November 2020 until the air quality improved [7].

Fourth, high stake assembly elections are going on in some of India’s biggest states at present [8]. Delhi’s toxic air has been a political football for years that neither dominant party addresses directly, preferring to call on individuals’ collective efforts to tackle the problem. Therefore, blaming the soaring respiratory problems that require oxygen on a COVID surge skilfully diverts attention from the ongoing political neglect of this urgent public health issue.

Fifth, respiratory diseases including COPD, TB, and respiratory tract infections like bronchitis leading to pneumonia are always among the top ten killers in India [3]. These conditions are severely aggravated by air pollution and often require oxygen which can be in short supply during air pollution crises. Delhi even saw its first oxygen bar open in 2019, where wealthier residents can pay for a 15-minute blast of oxygen during toxic periods [9].

Finally, the Indian government’s focus on vaccine procurement risks diverting resources from tackling urgent public health issues including access to clean water, sanitation, clean air, and treatments for other communicable diseases. An article in the British Medical Journal reported on disrupted access to TB vaccinations due to lockdowns [10], with TB known to cause around 1.4 million deaths in the country annually.

According to my contacts on the ground, people in Delhi are suffering from untreated respiratory and lung conditions that are now becoming serious. I’ve also had breathing problems there when perfectly healthy and started to mask up to keep the particulate matter out of my lungs. I used to suffer from serious chest infections twice yearly during the big changes in weather in India, usually November/December and April/May. When I reluctantly masked up that stopped. My contacts have reported that the usual seasonal bronchial infections have not been properly treated by doctors afraid of getting COVID, and due to people’s avoidance of government hospitals out of fear of getting COVID. Undoubtedly, these fears will have been fuelled by the media’s alarmist coverage of the situation. Consequently, the lack of early intervention means many respiratory conditions have developed life-threatening complications. Also, people from surrounding rural areas often travel to Delhi for treatment as it has the best healthcare facilities and people can go there for a few rupees by train. This puts pressure on Dehli’s healthcare system during respiratory virus seasons.

Until now, my contacts report that vaccine take-up among the working classes and other minority groups has been low due to widespread mistrust of government-funded vaccination camps. In the context of successive governments’ neglect of other longstanding public health problems that disproportionately affect India’s working class, the rolling news coverage of COVID and lockdowns are perceived as attempts to coerce vaccination compliance. Also, many perceive COVID as a disease more likely to affect the wealthy living in gated urban environments with air conditioning; therefore, a reluctance to comply endures. Vaccination is now being promoted over cheap early treatments that were previously widely available, and while vaccine take-up has increased, so have deaths concordantly as displayed in the graphic from John Hopkins University below [11]. While correlation does not equal causation, most people I have spoken to do not believe this is merely a coincidence. Given the widespread availability of the data online, and anecdotal reports of adverse reactions and deaths, suspicions of the vaccination campaign remain.

When we consider the current media coverage of India’s alleged COVID crisis in the context of the multiple factors presented above, clearly people’s concerns are not unfounded, and all is not what it seems.

 

[ExRes]

Then I'm sure you are appalled at the UK government's decision to cut overseas aid right around the time poor countries are struggling, aid which could and should be helping the people of countries like India, especially those in the lower castes who will be suffering the most. I have friends and colleagues whose families live in India, and the plight there is tragic but it is far from the first, nor will it be the last crisis they will . What I disapprove of (and this is not aimed at you BTW) is people using what is happening there to guilt people here into pushing back on easements, or feeling guilty for wanting to get back to normal here. There is a definite feeling that some people want us to stop we are doing "because India".

As this thread is about India I think it only fair to point out that UK aid to India ended quite some time ago, long before Covid ever reared its head, and mainly at the request of India itself, I believe that at the time aid was ended India were actually giving out more in aid themselves than they were receiving from the likes of the UK and USA

 

[Western Lord]

As this thread is about India I think it only fair to point out that UK aid to India ended quite some time ago, long before Covid ever reared its head, and mainly at the request of India itself, I believe that at the time aid was ended India were actually giving out more in aid themselves than they were receiving from the likes of the UK and USA

Hard to justify giving aid to a country with an active space programme.

 

[Ediswan]

Hope this puts the current situation in India in a bit of context.

It does, to start with. But at the end it jumps to suggesting that the vaccination programme is the cause of the recent rise in deaths, complete with scary graphic. Ending with the cryptic "all is not what it seems".

 

[35B]

Hope this puts the current situation in India in a bit of context. There is a massive scale difference between India and the UK, as a country with a population of over 1.4 billion people any absolute numbers need to be divided by 20 to get statistical equivalence with UK. Also keep in mind the state of poverty and general healthcare in India - which renders any comparison ultimately futile in any case.

India’s Current ‘COVID Crisis’ in Context - Real Left

The mainstream media’s reporting on the ‘COVID crisis’ in India has clearly been governed by a global approach to messaging that appears to aim at ramping up fear of ‘new variants’ and coerce compliance to vaccination during a period of increasing resistance, both in India and abroad. However...

leftlockdownsceptics.com

Some interesting commentary in that piece, and a useful reminder that healthcare in India is about a great deal more than just Covid. But what this careful presentation of statistics does not mention is the concentration of the current outbreak in major cities (notably Delhi and Mumbai), the sudden impact on an already brittle healthcare system, and the cost to the poor of a new respiratory disease both in itself and in the effect it would have on their ability to earn. That's without comment on the way it tries to focus on cures that have been disproven, like Ivermectin, as it builds towards what looks very like a conspiracy theory.

 

[MikeWM]

That's without comment on the way it tries to focus on cures that have been disproven, like Ivermectin

I haven't read the article yet, but I'm interested as to what you think has been 'disproven' about Ivermectin?

https://c19ivermectin.com/ contains links to a large number of studies, which on the whole show excellent results for ivermectin when used properly (prophylactically or as an early treatment).

 

[35B]

I haven't read the article yet, but I'm interested as to what you think has been 'disproven' about Ivermectin?

https://c19ivermectin.com/ contains links to a large number of studies, which on the whole show excellent results for ivermectin when used properly (prophylactically or as an early treatment).

I would ask who are behind that site. It has been investigated extensively, including through randomised control trials, and found to be of little or no therapeutic value, including prophylactically or as early treatment.

 

[MikeWM]

I would ask who are behind that site. It has been investigated extensively, including through randomised control trials, and found to be of little or no therapeutic value, including prophylactically or as early treatment.

That sounds rather like blaming the messenger when you don't like the message.

I've just linked to a large number of studies that say the exact opposite from your statement. I look forward to seeing a similar number of studies that support your position - so far I haven't encountered such.

 

[ainsworth74]

If you wish to haggle over who has the better scientific study or other source for their claim I would ask that you do so on a different thread. (indeed I'm sure there's one floating around about the effectiveness of alternative treatments). This one is about the situation in India and so I would ask that comments remain relevant to that please.

 

[35B]

Some interesting commentary in that piece, and a useful reminder that healthcare in India is about a great deal more than just Covid. But what this careful presentation of statistics does not mention is the concentration of the current outbreak in major cities (notably Delhi and Mumbai), the sudden impact on an already brittle healthcare system, and the cost to the poor of a new respiratory disease both in itself and in the effect it would have on their ability to earn. That's without comment on the way it tries to focus on cures that have been disproven, like Ivermectin, as it builds towards what looks very like a conspiracy theory.

Quoting myself, I found an interesting comment article by Roger Boyes in today’s Times - Modi’s posturing hides India’s real death toll. It strongly suggests that the reporting relied upon by leftwinglockdownsceptics is deeply flawed.

India’s populist and vainglorious prime minister Narendra Modi should stop counting votes and count the bodies instead. Modi presides over what’s known as the world’s biggest democracy and is so proud of his country’s medicine production that he calls it the world’s biggest pharmacy. Now he has hit another global record: the world’s highest daily number of Covid cases.

The surging virus and its developing variants have ambushed many leaders and Modi is not the only one to have prematurely declared victory. Last year he put India under lockdown and faced popular outrage from the business community and workers. This year he declared that the pandemic had been beaten and applauded unmasked thousands at an election rally in West Bengal. With hindsight, that seems like an act of hubris.
What might finish him off politically is not so much his over-promising demagoguery, which has never hurt his standing in the polls, but the masking of the true death toll. The funeral pyres across the country tell their own story and it’s not the version being peddled by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

For six days now the number of new Covid cases reported has been higher than 300,000 a day. On Monday the figure slipped from more than 350,000 to 323,144, but that was largely down to the weekend drop in testing. These extraordinarily high numbers are offset, according to government accounts, by a relatively small death rate: 2,800 or so a day.

Indian reporters have been getting to the bottom of this. The broadcaster NDTV has been looking into the books of the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD), which runs 26 crematoriums in the capital. These show 3,096 cremations of Covid victims between April 18 and April 24. The government reports only 1,938 for the same period. Both are an underestimate. The government statistics refer only to those registered as Covid victims in the mortuary. The MCD numbers take in only those bodies brought to the crematoriums by ambulance; they don’t take into account those people who have died from coronavirus at home.
Some relatives do not divulge the cause of death for fear that a Covid label will slow down the cremation bureaucracy (there are already day-long queues at the funeral pyres; they are running out of kindling and space). Others feel shame they weren’t able to find the oxygen needed to keep a relative alive. These deaths are documented as “normal” rather than down to Covid.

Apart from the crematorium figures there are also many fast burials. Across India, it’s a similar story. In Bhopal, site of a horrific gas leak in 1984, officials reported 41 Covid deaths in a fortnight in April but cremation and burial ground records revealed more than a thousand victims of the virus over the same period. A local doctor says officials are afraid of causing panic.

“It’s a complete massacre of data,” says Bhramar Mukherjee, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan. “From all the modelling we’ve done, we believe the true number of deaths is two to five times what is being reported.”

Since the total Indian pandemic death toll is already nudging 200,000 that could leave the country with a million dead, even on the basis of the more conservative modelling. India’s newspapers are on to it: “Covid-19 deaths in Gujarat far exceed government figures,” says the front page of The Hindu. The virus is now present not just in crowded cities but also remote villages.

 

[Yew]

Those numbers don't seem unreasonable. 2800/350,000 would be a death rate of just under 1%. Whilst this is perhaps higher than expected for Indias demographic vulnerability profile. That's easily accounted for by the fact that they won't be picking up all cases with tests.

Overall, that article is a load of hot air, trying to dress up the holes in the death reporting technology in a developing country as some sort of grand conspiracy.

 

[kristiang85]

"A million dead" is a horrific number, but still half the rate we are seeing in Western Europe when adjusted for the population. And still a tenth of expected annual deaths in India.

 

[35B]

Those numbers don't seem unreasonable. 2800/350,000 would be a death rate of just under 1%. Whilst this is perhaps higher than expected for Indias demographic vulnerability profile. That's easily accounted for by the fact that they won't be picking up all cases with tests.

Overall, that article is a load of hot air, trying to dress up the holes in the death reporting technology in a developing country as some sort of grand conspiracy.

I think you mean the death rate is a little low, not high.

There's rather more to it than just holes in the technology, though. And ultimately it's not a question of whether this or that number is correct that counts, but the fact that Modi's government has done very little to prepare for a second wave and that it appears more concerned with managing presentation than actually dealing with the issue, up to and including trying to threaten reporting of the pandemic - one of the BJP's more aggressive state premiers has been threatening prosecution of people posting stories online, while the government have been using their legal powers to censor critical social media posts.

Finally, whether or Boyes is right, it's worth considering what he writes - which is sourced - against the article quoted earlier from leftlockdownsceptics, and their presentation of everything as rosy, nothing to look at and that Covid is a distraction.

 

[brad465]

Then I'm sure you are appalled at the UK government's decision to cut overseas aid right around the time poor countries are struggling, aid which could and should be helping the people of countries like India, especially those in the lower castes who will be suffering the most. I have friends and colleagues whose families live in India, and the plight there is tragic but it is far from the first, nor will it be the last crisis they will . What I disapprove of (and this is not aimed at you BTW) is people using what is happening there to guilt people here into pushing back on easements, or feeling guilty for wanting to get back to normal here. There is a definite feeling that some people want us to stop we are doing "because India".

I regret to inform you that the Chief Executive of Oxfam, Dhananjayan Sriskandarajah, is appearing on Question Time today/tonight, which almost certainly suggests the situation in India will be getting discussed (not sure how many watch it these days though) on the programme.