Is China's 'Zero Covid' strategy coming to an end

[yorkie]

A rare good news story from the BBC, which actually acknowledges the negative effects of lockdowns:

China: How Delta threatens a prized zero Covid strategy

China's battling its widest outbreak since Wuhan - how long can it keep Covid out?

www.bbc.co.uk

...a long-term zero Covid strategy also has its risks. Mass lockdowns affect poorer people much more than others, and also affect a population's mental health over the long run, pointed out Nancy Jecker, a professor of bioethics at the University of Washington School of Medicine."

Prof Huang also warned of a long-term image problem for China as other countries move to reopen. Fellow zero Covid countries Australia and Singapore recently announced plans pegged to 80% vaccination rates.
Eventually the world would be split into two types of countries, said Prof Jecker: those who continue to pursue a zero Covid strategy, and those who have switched to mitigation

I always felt 'Zero Covid' was unsustainable and now the virus has mutated to improve fitness in humans, it's inevitable the virus is going to become endemic throughout the world.

The question is surely when, not if, China recognises this.

 

[Eyersey468]

I agree zero Covid is unsustainable as a strategy.

 

[brad465]

Given how untrustworthy anything controlled by the CCP is, it's amazing we actually know about this latest outbreak there and apparent concerns it's causing.

I recall reading that the R0 for Delta is now around 5-8 (at least 2x as infectious as the original Wuhan strain). Even though it can't spread at that rate due to building immunity, I think this shows that we could apply all the caution in the world, have 100% compliance with any restrictions and whatnot, the end reality is it will still spread because human's can only do so much (i.e. we think we're exceptional, but we're not).

 

[Merseysider]

I agree @brad465 - I’m sure I recall reading somewhere that it’d somehow managed to spread within a quarantine hotel under gaps in the door, and through vents, and some such. And ‘zero covid’ still doesn’t account for people who are positive but simply don’t get tested - they won’t show up in statistics.

 

[eastdyke]

I always felt 'Zero Covid' was unsustainable and now the virus has mutated to improve fitness in humans, it's inevitable the virus is going to become endemic throughout the world.

The question is surely when, not if, China recognises this.

Policy/strategy failure will not be easily admitted by The CCP.
When/if ever 'they' recognise it not may not become apparent on these shores for some time!

I see that they plan on testing the whole population of Wuhan once more [reported to be as a result of 8 cases of the Delta variant].
https://www.npr.org/2021/08/03/1024221743/wuhan-orders-testing-for-all-10-million-residents-as-the-delta-variant-hits-chin?t=1628265736806

Wuhan Orders Testing For All 10 Million Residents As The Delta Variant Hits China​

The fast-spreading delta variant of the coronavirus has been found in China.

Over the past week, more than 500 cases of COVID-19 have been identified across the country after the first delta cases were found in the port city of Nanjing. On Tuesday, authorities said they had discovered 90 new cases, concentrated in Jiangsu, Henan and Hubei provinces.

The city of Wuhan said it would mass test all 10 million of its residents after discovering eight cases of the virus this week.

I think that admission of failure will be (quite) a long time coming.

 

[Merseysider]

The city of Wuhan said it would mass test all 10 million of its residents after discovering eight cases of the virus this week.

Entirely proportional, of course.