Life after the end of "lockdown" 2.0

[C J Snarzell]

Matt Hancock and Boris Johnson have implied the restrictions will largely be removed by the start of April and instead replaced with personal responsibility. This I interpret as letting individuals assess their own or family’s level of risk and behaving accordingly.

That to me does sound fairly encouraging. However I do have my suspicions that come April, the lockdown lobby will come up with new reasons as to why the restrictions should continue such as saying we can‘t be certain the vaccine is reducing transmission.

I totally agree. Even if things do improve between now and March 2021 with the roll out of the vaccines and the toughened Tier system there is no way the government will simply open up the floodgates.

I'm predicting that by March, none of the Tiers will be in Tier 3 and that there will be gradual 'loosening' of restrictions.

I suspect there will be a very cautious approach to begin with. I can't see the face mask policy being removed until at least mid summer but even then I reckon sterile environments like hospitals and GP surgeries will maintain strong discipline for a long time to come.

Another good point I over heard someone mention is about whether the government will implement vaccine cards. So if you get a jab - you get a card to confirm you have been vaccinated.

This might be a useful tool for booking things like dental appointments or back massages where if you can present evidence of being vaccinated, you can get your treatment without any issues.

CJ

 

[DB]

I’m just as intrigued to know why there’s so much traffic on the roads. Last Sunday lunchtime was unbelievably busy just to the north of Nottingham. If no one can visit other households, no one going to a pub or restaurant for Sunday lunch, supposedly non essential shops closed, where were they all going. It was far busier than a normal Sunday with traffic almost at the level of one of the Sundays immediately before Christmas. Having said that, when I got back to my village, I had never seen so many cars parked everywhere and people setting off walking. Perhaps huge numbers form the City of Nottingham were out in the countryside walking. It was like a bank holiday in a national park. The traffic has also been extremely busy between 3 and 5 pm in the afternoons on weekdays and it’s not all school traffic. Where are everyone going if so many places are closed and people working from home.

Even in my small town I've noticed similar - quite a lot of shops are open still, so that partly explains it during the day, but out for a wander in the evenings (particularly Friday/Saturday) shows that there are still quite a few cars out and about - not at normal levels, but not negligible either.

 

[Yew]

I’m just as intrigued to know why there’s so much traffic on the roads. Last Sunday lunchtime was unbelievably busy just to the north of Nottingham. If no one can visit other households, no one going to a pub or restaurant for Sunday lunch, supposedly non essential shops closed, where were they all going. It was far busier than a normal Sunday with traffic almost at the level of one of the Sundays immediately before Christmas. Having said that, when I got back to my village, I had never seen so many cars parked everywhere and people setting off walking. Perhaps huge numbers form the City of Nottingham were out in the countryside walking. It was like a bank holiday in a national park. The traffic has also been extremely busy between 3 and 5 pm in the afternoons on weekdays and it’s not all school traffic. Where are everyone going if so many places are closed and people working from home.

The Bridge being out has caused lots of additonal traffic issues. With how long it's taking, I'm glad i'm not commuting over it every day!

I totally agree. Even if things do improve between now and March 2021 with the roll out of the vaccines and the toughened Tier system there is no way the government will simply open up the floodgates.

I'm predicting that by March, none of the Tiers will be in Tier 3 and that there will be gradual 'loosening' of restrictions.

I suspect there will be a very cautious approach to begin with. I can't see the face mask policy being removed until at least mid summer but even then I reckon sterile environments like hospitals and GP surgeries will maintain strong discipline for a long time to come.

Another good point I over heard someone mention is about whether the government will implement vaccine cards. So if you get a jab - you get a card to confirm you have been vaccinated.

This might be a useful tool for booking things like dental appointments or back massages where if you can present evidence of being vaccinated, you can get your treatment without any issues.

CJ

Surely as soon as the vulnerable are vaccinated in suficient numbers, we can leave this authoritarian dystopia...

 

[Bantamzen]

Well we're on the highest naughty step here in Bradford, R.I.P. the hospitality industry in this part of the world, they are losing most of their best business now.

You can check which internment camp you are going to Here.

 

[Trackman]

Well we're on the highest naughty step here in Bradford, R.I.P. the hospitality industry in this part of the world, they are losing most of their best business now.

You can check which internment camp you are going to Here.

Thanks for the link, but...

Postcode checker goes live on gov.uk - but has crashed​

Ahead of Matt Hancock’s announcement this morning, a postcode checker which tells you which tier your area is under went live on the government website.

It appears to have crashed already.

Edit: Hancock is on in very shortly, I suppose he’ll mention them then.

 

[Bantamzen]

Thanks for the link, but...

Edit: Hancock is on in very shortly, I suppose he’ll mention them then.

Yeah, I was just chuckling about that.

"Go to gov.uk to find your tier"
<Error>

 

[Class 33]

Bristol put into Tier 3! What an absolute joke! People tested positive in this city has fallen 64% over the past 7 days! Infection rate per 100,000 reached a peak of 506 on 8th November, and it's fallen to currently 354. Absolute joke! Feel sorry for those in the hospitality industry, many of them won't be able to survive having to still remain closed!

 

[johntea]

West Yorkshire in Tier 3 but North Yorkshire in Tier 2...plenty of overpriced Leeds to York rail tickets being sold this christmas then!

 

[Bantamzen]

West Yorkshire in Tier 3 but North Yorkshire in Tier 2...plenty of overpriced Leeds to York rail tickets being sold this christmas then!

The tiers are with a couple of exceptions are very much North = T3, South = T2:

[Withdrawn] Full list of local restriction tiers by area

This page sets out the full list of local restriction tiers by area from 31 December.

www.gov.uk

 

[ohgoditsjames]

How on earth can London be in tier 1?!?!

 

[Bantamzen]

How on earth can London be in tier 1?!?!

They aren't, only Cornwall and a couple of islands are T1.

 

[trebor79]

Absolutely ridiculous. Norfolk in Tier 2 despite being among the lowest infection rates. So it's still illegal to pop round to my folks for a cup of tea, but now I can go to the cinema and other indoor and outdoor events with loads of random people. How does that make any sense at all? I will not be complying with this at all. I will not be prevented from spending time with my own close family, and I suspect many millions will feel likewise. Enough now.
I have a slight hope that this is a deliberate ploy so that the Tiers can be revised to something more sensible early next week "in light of the latest science" or some such mumbo-jumbo so that the government can be seen to have responded to the inevitable backlash before the vote is put to parliament.

 

[MikeWM]

Hmm, I rather liked living in a country with pubs, restaurants, cinemas and hotels. I don't think there will be many left by the spring.

 

[Philip]

The fact that Liverpool and North Yorkshire are both in the medium tier suggests it's not a north vs south thing.

Greater Manchester in tier 3 isn't too surprising. Cases are falling rapidly and the average rate isn't much higher than the national average, but it's overloaded with bars and restaurants in a crowded city centre and they probably think it will get out of control again in the run up to and over Christmas if these reopen next week. The region was consistently amongst the highest in rates across the country between late July and the second lockdown, not many other areas were so high and for so long.

 

[Bantamzen]

Absolutely ridiculous. Norfolk in Tier 2 despite being among the lowest infection rates. So it's still illegal to pop round to my folks for a cup of tea, but now I can go to the cinema and other indoor and outdoor events with loads of random people. How does that make any sense at all? I will not be complying with this at all. I will not be prevented from spending time with my own close family, and I suspect many millions will feel likewise. Enough now.
I have a slight hope that this is a deliberate ploy so that the Tiers can be revised to something more sensible early next week "in light of the latest science" or some such mumbo-jumbo so that the government can be seen to have responded to the inevitable backlash before the vote is put to parliament.

Just be thankful you are only T2. In this corner of West Yorkshire we've pretty much had greater restrictions pretty much since the end of Lockdown v1.0.

Hmm, I rather liked living in a country with pubs, restaurants, cinemas and hotels. I don't think there will be many left by the spring.

Sadly this may well be the the case, the hospitality industry is going to be in serious trouble.

The fact that Liverpool and North Yorkshire are both in the medium tier suggests it's not a north vs south thing.

Greater Manchester in tier 3 isn't too surprising. Cases are falling rapidly and the average rate isn't much higher than the national average, but it's overloaded with bars and restaurants in a crowded city centre and they probably think it will get out of control again in the run up to and over Christmas if these reopen next week. The region was consistently amongst the highest in rates across the country between late July and the second lockdown, not many other areas were so high and for so long.

Liverpool is in T2 only because they were forced into T3 previously.

As for the pubs and restaurants being a primary source, the stats drawn up by PHE Track & Trace did not point to this with only 4.6% of contacts coming from the hospitality industry. But they are a convenient scapegoat.

 

[trebor79]

Just be thankful you are only T2. In this corner of West Yorkshire we've pretty much had greater restrictions pretty much since the end of Lockdown v1.0.

T3 wouldn't make any difference to me personally. My wife is a coronaphobe so no chance we'll be going out for a meal or anything nice like that anyway.
I couldn't understand in what way these Tiers were "tougher" that the old ones, given that the allow MORE things to be open , even in Tier 3. Should have realised what they actually meant was that almost everywhere was going to be bumped up a tier, with more families facing the choice of either stay apart or break the law.
I fell like crying.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

The fact that Liverpool and North Yorkshire are both in the medium tier suggests it's not a north vs south thing.

Greater Manchester in tier 3 isn't too surprising. Cases are falling rapidly and the average rate isn't much higher than the national average, but it's overloaded with bars and restaurants in a crowded city centre and they probably think it will get out of control again in the run up to and over Christmas if these reopen next week. The region was consistently amongst the highest in rates across the country between late July and the second lockdown, not many other areas were so high and for so long.

Except the evidence shows that there's hardly any transmission of Covid in pubs and restaurants, it's places like supermarkets and schools where the virus is most likely to be passed on.

 

[52290]

Hmm, I rather liked living in a country with pubs, restaurants, cinemas and hotels. I don't think there will be many left by the spring.

Breweries, ah I remember them.

 

[Philip]

Just be thankful you are only T2. In this corner of West Yorkshire we've pretty much had greater restrictions pretty much since the end of Lockdown v1.0.


Sadly this may well be the the case, the hospitality industry is going to be in serious trouble.


Liverpool is in T2 only because they were forced into T3 previously.

As for the pubs and restaurants being a primary source, the stats drawn up by PHE Track & Trace did not point to this with only 4.6% of contacts coming from the hospitality industry. But they are a convenient scapegoat.

Liverpool is in tier 2 because the infection rates and cases there are now amongst the lowest of all the cities.

Greater Manchester and Liverpool rates started to decrease substantially after they had the tier 3 restrictions imposed, not after the start of this lockdown. The big aspect of original tier 3 was the closure of pubs/bars that weren't eateries, so I think we can say that this did have a big effect.

Except the evidence shows that there's hardly any transmission of Covid in pubs and restaurants, it's places like supermarkets and schools where the virus is most likely to be passed on.

I think that evidence is flawed to put it mildly.

 

[MikeWM]

Liverpool is in T2 only because they were forced into T3 previously.

Liverpool looks like naked politics to me. 'Good boy, you did what you were told, here's your 'reward''.

I understand that if you're going for this approach, the areas can't be *too* granular, but putting the rural parts of Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambs in with the city parts doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. Eg. East Cambs retains one of the lowest rates in the country, and yet is going to be in Tier 2.

 

[DB]

The fact that Liverpool and North Yorkshire are both in the medium tier suggests it's not a north vs south thing.

Possibly they think there might be trouble if they shaft Liverpool yet again, after last time?

North Yorkshire - do many MPs have second homes in the Dales, I wonder? North Yorkshire has few towns of any size - Harrogate at about 75k and Scarborough at about 50k are the only ones of any size. The others are all less than 20k, so inevitably fewer opportunities for spreading to lots of people.

 

[Tomp94]

Absolutely ridiculous. Norfolk in Tier 2 despite being among the lowest infection rates. So it's still illegal to pop round to my folks for a cup of tea, but now I can go to the cinema and other indoor and outdoor events with loads of random people. How does that make any sense at all? I will not be complying with this at all. I will not be prevented from spending time with my own close family, and I suspect many millions will feel likewise. Enough now.
I have a slight hope that this is a deliberate ploy so that the Tiers can be revised to something more sensible early next week "in light of the latest science" or some such mumbo-jumbo so that the government can be seen to have responded to the inevitable backlash before the vote is put to parliament.

It’s my understanding that you can only go to the cinema, a restaurant, or a pub, with people you live with or who are in your support bubble

 

[DB]

Except the evidence shows that there's hardly any transmission of Covid in pubs and restaurants, it's places like supermarkets and schools where the virus is most likely to be passed on.

Is there actually any evidence for supermarkets? I've not seen any.

 

[Domh245]

In this corner of West Yorkshire we've pretty much had greater restrictions pretty much since the end of Lockdown v1.0.

I feel for Leicester, which IIRC has had the most stringent restrictions in the country throughout, yet case rates continue to be towards the highest in the country. It's almost as if the restrictions have materially little effect and the virus will do what it does regardless.

 

[DB]

I feel for Leicester, which IIRC has had the most stringent restrictions in the country throughout, yet case rates continue to be towards the highest in the country. It's almost as if the restrictions have materially little effect and the virus will do what it does regardless.

You'll be claiming next that countries with strong lockdowns and mask laws have some of the highest case rates in the world despite these restrictions!

Oh...

 

[CaptainHaddock]

Is there actually any evidence for supermarkets? I've not seen any.

Supermarkets revealed as place visitors are most likely to be exposed to Covid | ITV News

Supermarkets were the most common location reported by people testing positive for Covid-19, new data shows. | ITV National News

www.itv.com

Supermarkets are the most frequent common exposure setting for those catching coronavirus in England, new data reveals. Figures collated by Public Health England (PHE) using the NHS Test and Trace app showed that supermarkets were the most common location reported by people testing positive for Covid-19.

Of those who tested positive for Covid-19 between November 9 and 15, 1,796 (18.3%) of them said they had visited a supermarket.

Secondary schools were second with 1,240 people testing positive between November 9 and 15 after having visited.

Proportion of all common locations reported in PHE data:

Supermarket - 18.3%

Secondary school - 12.7%

Primary school - 10.1%

Hospital - 3.6%

Care home - 2.8%

College - 2.4%

Warehouse - 2.2%

Nursery preschool - 1.8%

Pub or bar - 1.6%

Hospitality - 1.5%

University - 1.4%

Manufacture engineering - 1.4%

Household fewer than five - 1.2%

General practice - 1.1%

Gym - 1.1%

Restaurant or cafe - 1.0%

So the best way to stop the virus spreading would be to shut the supermarkets and schools and keep the pubs open!

 

[Bantamzen]

This really riles me from the Health minister:

Hancock said the community testing programme was now being expanded even further - focusing on the areas with the greatest rate of infections.
The programme will be open to all local authorities under tier three restrictions.
It will offer help to get out of the toughest restrictions "as fast as possible".
The government will work with local authorities to get tests to where they are most needed and also to get people to come forward.
The more who get tested, the quicker an area can come out of those toughest restrictions, he says.

We've been testing en masse here in Bradford for months. There's been a walk-in site in the very centre of the city & mobile sites for ages, we've even had door-to-door tests being offered in areas for some time. How much more sodding testing do we need?

 

[trebor79]

Except the evidence shows that there's hardly any transmission of Covid in pubs and restaurants, it's places like supermarkets and schools where the virus is most likely to be passed on.

That's not really the case. There was a survey that said a lot of covid infected people had been to a supermarket, but that's hardly suprising! To draw any conclusions, you'd have to survey some non-infected people and see if less of them had been to the supermarket to buy food.
More than 50% of cases are passed on in care homes and hospitals. Those people don't tend to be frequenting pubs and restaurants.

Liverpool looks like naked politics to me. 'Good boy, you did what you were told, here's your 'reward''.

I understand that if you're going for this approach, the areas can't be *too* granular, but putting the rural parts of Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambs in with the city parts doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. Eg. East Cambs retains one of the lowest rates in the country, and yet is going to be in Tier 2.

It's totally ridiculous. Today is the day my compliance with this nonsense stops.

It’s my understanding that you can only go to the cinema, a restaurant, or a pub, with people you live with or who are in your support bubble

Errm, except that cinema screen will have loads of other people in there. Or does the virus magically respect "bubbles" in some settings?

 

[DB]

Supermarkets revealed as place visitors are most likely to be exposed to Covid | ITV News

Supermarkets were the most common location reported by people testing positive for Covid-19, new data shows. | ITV National News

www.itv.com

So the best way to stop the virus spreading would be to shut the supermarkets and schools and keep the pubs open!

But that doesn't say that they caught it in supermarkets - merely that they had been to a supermarket. Well, so what? A large proportion of the population goes to a supermarket at least once a week.

Unless there is any actual evidence of outbreaks being traced to supermarkets, this appears to be another of those unsupported correlation-causation claims.

 

[MikeWM]

It's totally ridiculous. Today is the day my compliance with this nonsense stops.

Other than Liverpool (which we all know has been coming down for almost two months) is there anywhere that has gone 'down'? Certainly vast swathes of the country have gone 'up'. Doesn't say much for the 'success' of 'Lockdown 2', does it, if most of us are apparently the same or worse than we were before it started?

Utter nonsense indeed.