Life after the end of "lockdown" 2.0

[DelW]

In tier 2, pubs can stay open if they serve "substantial meals".

Genuine question, to which I haven't seen an answer: does that mean every customer has to buy a substantial meal? I assume it must, otherwise the pub could say that serving Fred in the corner with steak and chips allows everyone else to come in just for a beer.

But if so, there are as usual awkward edge cases. Say a husband and wife go in, he wants a big meal but she just wants a drink and maybe a snack - is the pub expected to throw her out? If someone orders a meal and eats it, how long after are they allowed to sit and have more drinks? If someone orders a meal and doesn't eat it, are they expected to abandon their drinks and leave straight away? "If you don't eat your dinner, you can't have your drinks!"

Good luck to the unfortunate bar staff who have to navigate this minefield.

I wonder if our MPs will arrange a nice little exemption for their bars, like they have previously. "Do as we say not as we do" as per Johnson, Jenrick, Cummings and Ferrier, just to mention the ones who got caught out.

 

[Yew]

I overloaded the word 'down' in my previous post to mean both 'down in positive test results' and 'down in tier', apologies

If most places are the same or higher tier than they were before 'lockdown 2', then it doesn't appear that lockdown 2 was highly successful (of course we know that anyway...)

Indeed, our cases are lower than when we went in, below the national average in fact; yet we're still in Tier 3.

There's no logic to it, so sense at all, only a desire to be seen as being "tough on the virus"; yet completely ignoring the human suffering this causes.

 

[fishquinn]

Some areas of North Warwickshire have high rates of infections, you can see it on the gov.uk interactive map.

Yay, problems in Atherstone and Nuneaton have major impacts on me, a rural village over 20 miles away (South Warwickshire)

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Perhaps the only glimmer of hope is that these measures will be reviewed in 14 days and every week thereafter. With infection rates falling significantly in most Northern cities, it must be hoped that we can all be down to tier 2 before Christmas and tier 1 as we go into the new year.

Spot on all conveniently lowered by Father Boris Christmas just in time for him to celebrated as the Great Leader who saved our Christmas

Hail the Chief

 

[C J Snarzell]

In tier 2, pubs can stay open if they serve "substantial meals".

Genuine question, to which I haven't seen an answer: does that mean every customer has to buy a substantial meal? I assume it must, otherwise the pub could say that serving Fred in the corner with steak and chips allows everyone else to come in just for a beer.

But if so, there are as usual awkward edge cases. Say a husband and wife go in, he wants a big meal but she just wants a drink and maybe a snack - is the pub expected to throw her out? If someone orders a meal and eats it, how long after are they allowed to sit and have more drinks? If someone orders a meal and doesn't eat it, are they expected to abandon their drinks and leave straight away? "If you don't eat your dinner, you can't have your drinks!"

Good luck to the unfortunate bar staff who have to navigate this minefield.

I wonder if our MPs will arrange a nice little exemption for their bars, like they have previously. "Do as we say not as we do" as per Johnson, Jenrick, Cummings and Ferrier, just to mention the ones who got caught out.

From what I know - pubs/restaurants have been coming down really strictly on the substantial meal policy in my neck of the woods.

For example, a group of lads having a few pints and then ordering a bowl of onion rings between them wouldn't happen.

At least two pubs I know of insist you purchase meals at the same time as your first drink - so sadly you cannot order a pint and sit there scouting the menu. I suspect a few characters have gone into pubs - ordered drinks pretending they are going to get food off the menu and then left without the intention of buying food in the first place.

The other issue with substantial meals is that the two pubs I referred to have stated things like a bowl of soup or a plated sandwich & salad is not classed as a substantial meal. I'm sorry - but as far as I'm concerned, soup & a crusty roll for my lunch is a substantial meal as far as I'm concerned.

CJ

 

[DustyBin]

Except the evidence shows that there's hardly any transmission of Covid in pubs and restaurants, it's places like supermarkets and schools where the virus is most likely to be passed on.

You're certainly correct in regards to pubs, restaurants and schools. I'm not sure about supermarkets, most people visit them so it's easy to create a link to cases. Realistically you don't spend any length of time close to other people in the supermarket, except maybe if there are long queues.

Liverpool is in tier 2 because the infection rates and cases there are now amongst the lowest of all the cities.

Greater Manchester and Liverpool rates started to decrease substantially after they had the tier 3 restrictions imposed, not after the start of this lockdown. The big aspect of original tier 3 was the closure of pubs/bars that weren't eateries, so I think we can say that this did have a big effect.



I think that evidence is flawed to put it mildly.

Across our pubs, bars and restaurants there have been next to no cases of transmission linked to our premises. You can count them on one hand and these haven't been mass spreading events, just individuals contacted by T&T. To put that into perspective I'm talking about over a thousand sites here. Transmission within properly run and well managed venues is extremely low.

 

[peters]

The craziest of all this is when you get a village like Billinge - half of it falls under Wigan Borough (Greater Manchester therefore Tier 3) and the other half falls under St Helens (Merseyside therefore Tier 2).

Do these politicians not realise the villagers living under Tier 3 are simply going to venture half a mile into Tier 2 and enjoy a pint & a meal at a pub/restaurant that can open?

CJ

That happened in Little Bollington (in Cheshire East but close to the borders of both Warrington and Trafford) pre-lockdown 2. Although, the pub owners reported that they were getting phone calls from people asking if they were still open, as people didn't know exactly where the council boundaries were!

I can't remember exactly where but driving up towards St Helens from Cheshire you end up on a road which has a Cheshire bus stop on one side of the road and a Merseytravel one on the other side.

 

[Philip]

You're certainly correct in regards to pubs, restaurants and schools. I'm not sure about supermarkets, most people visit them so it's easy to create a link to cases. Realistically you don't spend any length of time close to other people in the supermarket, except maybe if there are long queues.



Across our pubs, bars and restaurants there have been next to no cases of transmission linked to our premises. You can count them on one hand and these haven't been mass spreading events, just individuals contacted by T&T. To put that into perspective I'm talking about over a thousand sites here. Transmission within properly run and well managed venues is extremely low.

You don't really know that though, you're relying on the track and trace thing to make that assumption. Not everyone uses the track and trace as it puts numerous people into self-isolation for 2 weeks. Quite possible or likely that there are many cases stemming from bars and pubs, just not been reported.

Yes there are many pubs and cafes which have done and are doing very well with the social distancing, meaning transmission risk in these places is minimal. Cafes especially and well-run eating pubs and restaurants should be allowed to open in tier 3, but there are unfortunately many pubs and bars which are letting the side down by not following the social distancing measures and couple that with people who have a carefree approach about it all...it means transmission risk is much more likely.

 

[duncanp]

The craziest of all this is when you get a village like Billinge - half of it falls under Wigan Borough (Greater Manchester therefore Tier 3) and the other half falls under St Helens (Merseyside therefore Tier 2).

Do these politicians not realise the villagers living under Tier 3 are simply going to venture half a mile into Tier 2 and enjoy a pint & a meal at a pub/restaurant that can open?

CJ

The people of Billinge are not the only one who are going to be making such journeys.

I predict that large numbers of people from Portsmouth and Southampton will just "happen" to fancy a day trip to the Isle of Wight come December 5th, as will the people of Plymouth who will fancy a day trip to Cornwall.

Here in the West Midlands, Christmas shopping in Shrewsbury or Worcester, or perhaps a walk amongst the Malvern Hills or the Shropshire Hills will suddenly become more attractive, as will a day trip to London for "urgent business reasons".

I hope lots of people do make such trips, as it will convince the government to move several areas down the tiers at the next review.

If the government think that people in Tier 3 are going to sit at home under house arrest for an indeterminate period, they've got another think coming.

 

[bramling]

T3 wouldn't make any difference to me personally. My wife is a coronaphobe so no chance we'll be going out for a meal or anything nice like that anyway.
I couldn't understand in what way these Tiers were "tougher" that the old ones, given that the allow MORE things to be open , even in Tier 3. Should have realised what they actually meant was that almost everywhere was going to be bumped up a tier, with more families facing the choice of either stay apart or break the law.
I fell like crying.

It makes me laugh that my area went into “lockdown” in tier 1, and we come out of “lockdown” into tier 2. Does that not imply the “lockdown” has failed?

Of course unless you happen to be unfortunate enough to be a stakeholder in a hospitality business, these tiers essentially make no difference to people at all, most people are just doing their own thing now.

Do we presume people on tiers 2 and 3 cannot travel to Wales still?

 

[trebor79]

You don't really know that though, you're relying on the track and trace thing to make that assumption. Quite possible or likely that there are many cases stemming from bars and pubs, just not been reported.

Hmmm. No doubt that is true, but the same could be said for cases transmitted in other settings, and I don't see why cases transmitted in pubs etc would be less likely to be picked up and reported than cases transmitted in other settings.

 

[bramling]

You don't really know that though, you're relying on the track and trace thing to make that assumption. Not everyone uses the track and trace as it puts numerous people into self-isolation for 2 weeks. Quite possible or likely that there are many cases stemming from bars and pubs, just not been reported.

Realistically what is happening is people are going to Tesco and buying a few six packs, then meeting up in homes. People aren’t doing it in gardens now because it’s cold and damp. There’s no enforcement unless it turns into a full-on rave.

So in all honesty we might as well have the pubs open and avoid the damage this is causing to the industry. I don’t mind the 11pm curfew, to be honest personally I always thought the 24-hour drinking should never have happened as overnight it caused a terrible culture in our towns and cities, but that’s a different discussion.

But that doesn't say that they caught it in supermarkets - merely that they had been to a supermarket. Well, so what? A large proportion of the population goes to a supermarket at least once a week.

Unless there is any actual evidence of outbreaks being traced to supermarkets, this appears to be another of those unsupported correlation-causation claims.

Of course it is. It’s patently clear that many people will have been to a supermarket. That absolutely doesn’t mean that’s where they got Covid.

I can’t see how one could easily get it in a supermarket unless the place is completely packed out, though of course this “lockdown” will likely have made some of them a bit busier at certain times.

 

[Philip]

Why have cases been dropping rapidly since the pubs closed then? Schools have long since returned, supermarkets are open and are just as busy. It points the finger towards the pubs. As I said in the post above,I don't agree with keeping all hospitality closed in the upper tier.

 

[bramling]

Why have cases been dropping rapidly since the pubs closed then? Schools have long since returned, supermarkets are open and are just as busy. It points the finger towards the pubs. As I said in the post above,I don't agree with keeping all hospitality closed in the upper tier.

Pubs reopened in July and there wasn’t a massive spike then. Yes there may be a case to say this was partly down to summer weather I suppose.

 

[birchesgreen]

Yay, problems in Atherstone and Nuneaton have major impacts on me, a rural village over 20 miles away (South Warwickshire)

I agree that taking all of Warwickshire as one is a bit daft but this blunt approach seems to be common to many areas.

 

[trebor79]

Why have cases been dropping rapidly since the pubs closed then? S

Something something lockdown something no meeting indoors in any setting something.

 

[Mag_seven]

Does that not imply the “lockdown” has failed?

Indeed - I'd like to know why no journalists are asking this question (although one might in the 17.00 Press Conference)

 

[Bantamzen]

Pubs reopened in July and there wasn’t a massive spike then. Yes there may be a case to say this was partly down to summer weather I suppose.

The end of summer could easily be attributed to more spread in people's homes, schools, workplaces etc. Pubs and restaurants are just an easy target to give the impression of doing something.

 

[greyman42]

Why have cases been dropping rapidly since the pubs closed then? Schools have long since returned, supermarkets are open and are just as busy. It points the finger towards the pubs. As I said in the post above,I don't agree with keeping all hospitality closed in the upper tier.

Cases were dropping before the lockdown when the pubs were still open. I put it down to the universities which was the governments decision but they would not admit this and instead have scapegoated hospitality.

 

[DustyBin]

You don't really know that though, you're relying on the track and trace thing to make that assumption. Not everyone uses the track and trace as it puts numerous people into self-isolation for 2 weeks. Quite possible or likely that there are many cases stemming from bars and pubs, just not been reported.

Yes there are many pubs and cafes which have done and are doing very well with the social distancing, meaning transmission risk in these places is minimal. Cafes especially and well-run eating pubs and restaurants should be allowed to open in tier 3, but there are unfortunately many pubs and bars which are letting the side down by not following the social distancing measures and couple that with people who have a carefree approach about it all...it means transmission risk is much more likely.

I agree to an extent, but we can only use the data available. 'Quite possible or likely' isn't good enough when you're threatening the livlihoods of over a million people, and if there was any evidence I'm sure the government would be presenting it given the backlash they're facing from the hospitality industry (we have asked!). There are plenty of well run wet only pubs out there, they don't need to serve food although I agree that there are a small number letting the side down and they should be dealt with; why punish the innocent majority?

 

[BrumKev]

I cant say I'm surprised at all with my area (Birmingham) being placed into tier 3. The numbers were rising when we were in Tier 2 prior to the lockdown and they haven't dropped below 300. Ive seen some areas in the city its at 600+ per 100,000. Its going to be a long winter and I genuinely don't see us anywhere but Tier 3 until a vaccine has an effect. If anything I feel there's more of a chance of another lockdown.

Boris keeps on talking about normality by Easter but does anyone have any confidence in any promise he makes?.

 

[alex397]

This must be worrying for those traditional pubs which don’t really serve food. There are still traditional pubs remaining, but how many will survive this?
it would be very boring if the only pubs about are gastropubs and Wetherspoons.
In my opinion, if restaurants, some pubs and other things are allowed to open, then so should ALL pubs.

(Of course, there are more important things to be worrying about right now, but pubs are one of the few places I get to socialise).

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Yes there are many pubs and cafes which have done and are doing very well with the social distancing, meaning transmission risk in these places is minimal. Cafes especially and well-run eating pubs and restaurants should be allowed to open in tier 3, but there are unfortunately many pubs and bars which are letting the side down by not following the social distancing measures and couple that with people who have a carefree approach about it all...it means transmission risk is much more likely.

Enforcement or the total lack of it is allowing perfectly good businesses and law abiding citizens to carry the burden for the minority who flout the rules. Its clear govt know they can't enforce so they take the easy option and sacrifice us all.

Disgraceful.

 

[duncanp]

Why have cases been dropping rapidly since the pubs closed then? Schools have long since returned, supermarkets are open and are just as busy. It points the finger towards the pubs. As I said in the post above,I don't agree with keeping all hospitality closed in the upper tier.

Cases have been dropping in England since the end of October, when the pubs were still open.

If pubs were a major cause of the increase in cases we would have seen a large rise in cases when pubs re-opened in July.

Perhaps the government should publsih details of how many hospitality venues have been identified as sources of infection, and then compare that with the corresponding figures for schools, hospitals and universities.

But then maybe these figures don't show what the government wants them to show, which is why they haven't been published.

The government took a political decision to keep schools open at all costs, and it is the hospitality sector which is paying the price.

 

[DB]

Enforcement or the total lack of it is allowing perfectly good businesses and law abiding citizens to carry the burden for the minority who flout the rules. Its clear govt know they can't enforce so they take the easy option and sacrifice us all.

Disgraceful.

It's a case of being seen to be doing something, and the government obviously decided that the hospitality industry were to be the chosen scapegoats.

 

[brad465]

Indeed - I'd like to know why no journalists are asking this question (although one might in the 17.00 Press Conference)

Probably because our Government are so intent on controlling the narrative that if someone strongly criticises them they won't be coming back to question them further.

 

[C J Snarzell]

That happened in Little Bollington (in Cheshire East but close to the borders of both Warrington and Trafford) pre-lockdown 2. Although, the pub owners reported that they were getting phone calls from people asking if they were still open, as people didn't know exactly where the council boundaries were!

I can't remember exactly where but driving up towards St Helens from Cheshire you end up on a road which has a Cheshire bus stop on one side of the road and a Merseytravel one on the other side.

I don't know if it's the same location your thinking of, but there used to be a pub called the Bulls Head which is situated on a cross roads just outside Newton-Le-Willows (Merseyside).

The pub has long gone but it is situated on a junction (on Newton Road) - the opposite side of the road is the Greater Manchester border. If you cross the junction and venture just a few yards down Parkside Road, you are in Cheshire!

CJ

 

[yorksrob]

Why have cases been dropping rapidly since the pubs closed then? Schools have long since returned, supermarkets are open and are just as busy. It points the finger towards the pubs. As I said in the post above,I don't agree with keeping all hospitality closed in the upper tier.

One might as easily ask why there was no large spike in cases when the pubs reopened, but there was when the Universities opened ?

Pubs have been a comparatively small source of transmission, as the low proportion of outbreaks identified in such settings suggests.

 

[duncanp]

I cant say I'm surprised at all with my area (Birmingham) being placed into tier 3. The numbers were rising when we were in Tier 2 prior to the lockdown and they haven't dropped below 300. Ive seen some areas in the city its at 600+ per 100,000. Its going to be a long winter and I genuinely don't see us anywhere but Tier 3 until a vaccine has an effect. If anything I feel there's more of a chance of another lockdown.

Boris keeps on talking about normality by Easter but does anyone have any confidence in any promise he makes?.

The infection rate in Birmingham, when using the more accurate measure of specimen date rather than date reported, peaked at 388.7 on 13th November, and is now below 300. (In the seven days to 24th November, there were 3,290 cases, which equates to an infection rate of 288.1.

This is a 25% fall in 11 days, and if things continue at this rate, the infection rate will be well under 200 by the time the government next reviews the tier allocations on 16th December.

Today's figures also show a drop of over 30% in the numbers of people testing positive in Birmingham compared with this time last week.

I live just over the border in Sandwell, and the pattern is very similar there, although the peak infection rate was over 500.

I don't have any confidence in anything the government says, but it will be increasingly difficult to justify keeping somewhere in Tier 3 when its' infection rate drops below other areas that are in Tier 2, particularly London.

You can be sure that MPs, business leaders and local authorities will be watching the infection rates like a hawk from now on.

Meanwhile, I shall look forward to a walk in the Lickey Hills after 3rd December. The fact that they are just over the border in Bromsgrove (Tier 2) may have influenced my decision to go there.

Who knows, I may even bump into the local MP there in the pub, and I could ask him what he thinks of the government?

 

[Horizon22]

This really riles me from the Health minister:



We've been testing en masse here in Bradford for months. There's been a walk-in site in the very centre of the city & mobile sites for ages, we've even had door-to-door tests being offered in areas for some time. How much more sodding testing do we need?

Testing is a vital part of test, track, trace etc. Helps understand how the virus spreads of course. If rates aren't going down despite this, that to me suggests a lack of social distancing although Bradford does have a particularly high number of inter-generational households.

I do find it strange that some places, like Kent have been put into stronger Tier restrictions than they were pre-lockdown 2.

I live in Greater Manchester unfortunately which is Tier 3. Not only are we in the strongest Tier - we'll have to put up with that snake Andy Burnham having his two pen'ith on the news over the next few days!

CJ

Medway & Sheppey seems to have shot up during lockdown, one of the only areas in the country to dramatically do so. Perhaps that's due to low compliance with Lockdown 2.0 or some other reasons.