Furthermore, the "Roadmap" section of the TfN paper contains hints that the Task Force is still considering rerouting the TfW N Wales service via Northwich and Knutsford, per Option C, as a further step after Option B+, for possible introduction in 2023:
5.5 As the Transport for Wales driver training programme for its new train fleet reaches completion (May 2023), there is an opportunity to work with relevant stakeholders on the right solution for the North Wales service to Manchester given its importance to union connectivity between UK nations. It is recommended that further work be undertaken to assess demand, cost and performance implications of any changes to the routeing of North Wales services, as well as alternative uses of paths on the Castlefield Corridor. Required level crossing interventions to reduce risk levels are currently being developed, with two locations requiring increased barrier down time and only one likely to require changes to infrastructure.
The "required level crossing interventions" is clearly a reference to the Mid Cheshire line, where Network Rail is known to have expressed concern about Option C because of level crossing risk. The rerouting of the N Wales service would result in multiple stations in both the Cheshire West and Chester and the Warrington council areas losing their direct Airport service, which was the concern Cllr Browne voiced in the meeting.
Given
"its importance to union connectivity", it is rather concerning that
"the right solution for the North Wales service to Manchester" is implied to be increasing journey times by re-routing it via Altrincham. If the direct line through Sale and into Manchester Central was still available (and it was a limited-stop service) then that might well be the faster route, but the detour via Stockport may make maintaining the current journey time into Piccadilly unacheivable, even if the service only calls at Northwich, Knutsford, Altrincham and Stockport. In my opinion, the right solution for the North Wales service to Manchester is Holyhead* to Stalybridge calling at Bangor*, Llandudno Junction*, Rhyl*, Flint*, Chester, Warrington Bank Quay, either Earlestown
or Newton-Le-Willows and Manchester Victoria using something similar to class 175s.
* I think there should be 1tph between Holyhead and Chester with this calling pattern, with 3 trains per day in each direction (breakfast, lunch and dinner) being the Holyhead-Cardiff fasts, but I'm undecided as to whether the rest of the day would be the Manchesters since I know some are calling for more London services and it might make more sense for the Londons to use this fast Holyhead path in which case I would instead have the Manchesters be a semi-fast (add Prestatyn and Colwyn Bay stops) to one of Llandudno (with Deganwy), Bangor (with Conwy served every two hours) or Caernarfon (with Conwy served every two hours and Y Felinheli every hour).
The current option B+
- retains hourly train services to the Airport (via the Castlefield corridor) from here, there (including NE England/Scotland/Wales) and everywhere
- abandons the principle in the original consultation (particularly option C) of regular 30 minute interval local services, e.g. by splitting the Southport service between Oxford Road and Victoria, so a second stopping service on the CLC line can't be accommodated
- maintains use of the Ordsall curve for trains from the Standedge line to Manchester, which could be diverted via Guide Bridge to Piccadilly (or linked through Victoria with other long-distance fast services, such as the North Wales - Manchester or WCML Manchester-Scotland trains, to avoid the problem of finding somewhere to terminate these given the lack of suitable bay platforms at Victoria), further relieving pressure on the Castlefield line
- makes little use of platforms 1 and 2 at Victoria, which could accommodate 4 coach stopping trains from the Standedge line (or lengthen the bays to accomodate the TPE services to avoid the choice in the point above). I suppose you could swap the Manchester Piccadilly to Huddersfield (assuming these are currently 3-car 185s and not too long for platforms 1 and 2 at Victoria) with either the Newcastle or Redcar TPE service so that the Newcastle/Redcar goes into PICC (and terminates, instead of going to the airport) and the Huddersfield goes into Victoria. But then, the train at Victoria would be a relatively short distance stopping service with wide doors at thirds and suitable for operating via the Ordsall Chord, so really the bays being on the south side at Victoria (as is the Ordsall Chord) but too short for long-distance services makes them not very useful
IMO, it won't solve the Castlefield line problems. These won't go away until a radical decision is made to remove long-distance services from the Castlefield line and confine its use to local Northern-run services from within historic Lancashire, plus the Sheffield-Liverpool through service that has no practicable alternative route.
Comments added to quote above... I agree with your concluding paragraph however (except perhaps the 'from within historic Lancashire bit' since I'm not sure what 'historic Lancashire' encompases), the Castlefield corridor (as it stands, the upgrade plan that included two additional through platforms at Piccadilly might address this) is not really suitable for long-distance passenger services but there is no realistic alternative for the Sheffield-Liverpool so that one has to stay.
It does seem strange to have two existing east-facing bay platforms at Manchester Victoria station that could be used to better effect. Currently Northern seem happy with 3-car Class 195 units and the TPE Class 185 units are also 3-car units, as the lack of cross-Pennine electrification means that currently only diesel traction can be used, either on the old Lancashire and Yorkshire Railway line via Rochdale or the Manchester Victoria to Stalybridge via Ashton-under-Lyne route.
As noted above, those bays are not ideal. To avoid crossing the path of other services, trains to/from the Rochdale direction would be restricted to platforms 5 and 6 and thence to Salford Crescent and beyond, so having these use the bays (or the Ordsall Chord) is not ideal. Since the WCML Manchester-Scotland services come in via Bolton, it would therefore seem to make sense for these to terminate at Rochdale but unfortunately I doubt the south-facing bay there is long enough for a 397.
Meanwhile, platforms 3 and 4 at Victoria are the optimum ones to use for anything coming in through the Chat Moss route and the Ordsall Chord, and possibly some from the Salford Crescent direction as well. That's a very wide pool of origins/destinations, there's no west-facing bays at Victoria to terminate those trains and platforms 1-4 are all better suited to Stalybridge services than Rochdale ones. So, while services from the Stalybridge direction could in theory use the bays at Manchester Victoria, in practice there are likely to be so many services from the west needing to head towards Stalybridge that there is no need for any more services between Manchester Victoria and Stalybridge.
Of course, you may decide that the lines through Victoria station aren't so busy that crossing over between the Rochdale line and the bays and/or the Ordsall Chord / Chat Moss would be a concern.
Can I ask a question here, not being fully conversant with specific rail matters. Has there ever been any officially sanctioned discussions on the future electrification on the line in the Miles Platting area to the area near to Ashburys station? Many years ago, I recall Saturday summer holiday trains from Nottingham to Blackpool using that route.
Is there much using the line in question currently, or was it last used many years ago?