Network Rail draws up list of ‘no regret’ electrification schemes - New Civil Engineer

[AM9]

Which is where alternative instant-charge "batteries" like hydrogen, or other alt fuel systems come in, so perhaps the focus shouldn't be 100% on EV but more about not-an-ICE.

60% of the parking here is on-street & there's no infrastructure for public charging ( I'm not even sure our local grid can stand mass car charging, to be honest ). Quite some way to go yet. Cash-strapped local councils have rather higher priorities right now too :/

Just as it takes time for local supplies to be upgraded, so will the proportion of EVs be a gradual process over the next thirty years. The early adopters will be those who have off-street parking and can make charging provisions themselves. Concurrent with that transition, there will be the mandated move away from gas for domestic purposes in new builds (which is more likely to occur on the periphery of smaller towns and villages) so any current lack of perceived power capacity isn't any reason to doubt the increase in EV use.
Hydrogen is not really a priority for private vehicle use on grounds of lack of charging infrastructure and especially not the 'convenience' of not having to wait a few minutes rapid charging time. Driving habits will change to accommodate such minor factors. Fortunately, approved vehicle designs for general consumer use are probably some way into the future when most of the EV issues will have been resolved.

 

[JamesT]

Indeed, however the other thing to note is that we need to get to net zero, as such we don't really have a choice of either/or. Especially given that currently the rail network emissions per km per person isn't that adrift from EV (especially when you consider the maintenance of the infrastructure).

As such the more electrification of the railways the note likely it's going to surpass EV emissions. It may even be that even with EV's there's still a push to get people to use rail as it would result in yet lower emissions.

That's before you consider that rail users are more likely to walk/cycle for local trips and so their milage emissions are likely to be lower still.

Though an important part of the goal is that it’s _Net_ Zero. We don’t have to remove every single source of emissions, or completely decarbonise a sector. As long as across the country emissions are balanced by schemes that remove carbon from the atmosphere, the goal will have been reached.

Just as it takes time for local supplies to be upgraded, so will the proportion of EVs be a gradual process over the next thirty years. The early adopters will be those who have off-street parking and can make charging provisions themselves. Concurrent with that transition, there will be the mandated move away from gas for domestic purposes in new builds (which is more likely to occur on the periphery of smaller towns and villages) so any current lack of perceived power capacity isn't any reason to doubt the increase in EV use.
Hydrogen is not really a priority for private vehicle use on grounds of lack of charging infrastructure and especially not the 'convenience' of not having to wait a few minutes rapid charging time. Driving habits will change to accommodate such minor factors. Fortunately, approved vehicle designs for general consumer use are probably some way into the future when most of the EV issues will have been resolved.

I suspect it will get rather less gradual come 2030. When people can no longer buy pure ICE cars there will be an expectation that there will be infrastructure to support buying a shiny new EV. This will grow then in 2035 when the Hybrids are banned too.

 

[Bald Rick]

If we do less miles then only charging overnight or at a long stop will work, but for high mileage drivesr I can see electric charging times as a barrier unless one charge would cover a daily mileage for someone reliant on their car for employment.

There won’t be that many people driving more than 300 miles a day, let alone doing more than 300 miles and not wanting to stop for 30 mins for a break en route.

 

[Alex McKenna]

Unless the infrastructure improves and charging is faster surely petrol still wins over Electric cars. Of course it assumes that we do as many miles post pandemic as we did pre-pandemic. If we do less miles then only charging overnight or at a long stop will work, but for high mileage drivesr I can see electric charging times as a barrier unless one charge would cover a daily mileage for someone reliant on their car for employment.

The infrastructure is proving more than adequate, accoring to EV users in Britain. The more you look into EVs, the more they "tick all the boxes". Quite apart from being much better than filthy petrol cars in every way, you only have to get over the idea of "filling up" at a petrol station. That's not the optimal way of going electric. If you can't charge at home, you can charge while you're shopping, dining, working or parked-up for any other reason. Tesla especially has an amazing network of fast chargers, which is growing every day. EV take-up is accelerating fast - much like the cars do.

I’ve just written a short guidebook about upgrading to an EV: “Your Next Car Will Be Electric”. It doesn’t go into detailed explanations, but answers many of the questions about the advantages of going electric, and demolishes all those anti-EV lies and half-truths. Just the sort of handy little paperback book you could give to your doubtful neighbour or partner. It includes contacts for further information on EVs, including relevant You-Tube EV channels and various web-sites where EVs can be discovered. There are even a few silly jokes about gas cars. I’ve given myself a suitable pen-name - Sparky McWheels. @SparkyMcWheels

Your Next Car Will Be Electric: A Quick Guide to the EV Revolution: Amazon.co.uk: McKenna, Mr Alexander John, McWheels, Mr Sparky: 9798578997150: Books

Buy Your Next Car Will Be Electric: A Quick Guide to the EV Revolution by McKenna, Mr Alexander John, McWheels, Mr Sparky (ISBN: 9798578997150) from Amazon's Book Store. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders.

www.amazon.co.uk

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I’ve just written a short guidebook about upgrading to an EV: “Your Next Car Will Be Electric”. It doesn’t go into detailed explanations, but answers many of the questions about the advantages of going electric, and demolishes all those anti-EV lies and half-truths. Just the sort of handy little paperback book you could give to your doubtful neighbour or partner. It includes contacts for further information on EVs, including relevant You-Tube EV channels and various web-sites where EVs can be discovered. There are even a few silly jokes about gas cars. I’ve given myself a suitable pen-name - Sparky McWheels. @SparkyMcWheels

Your Next Car Will Be Electric: A Quick Guide to the EV Revolution: Amazon.co.uk: McKenna, Mr Alexander John, McWheels, Mr Sparky: 9798578997150: Books

Buy Your Next Car Will Be Electric: A Quick Guide to the EV Revolution by McKenna, Mr Alexander John, McWheels, Mr Sparky (ISBN: 9798578997150) from Amazon's Book Store. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders.

www.amazon.co.uk

Thanks for that. At the low price quoted I will order a copy today.

EDIt - I think I will wait!

 

[JonathanH]

Though an important part of the goal is that it’s _Net_ Zero. We don’t have to remove every single source of emissions, or completely decarbonise a sector. As long as across the country emissions are balanced by schemes that remove carbon from the atmosphere, the goal will have been reached.

There is no harm in exceeding a goal though and maybe we will in time need to offset the carbon our actions are producing elsewhere in the world.

 

[Mordac]

There is no harm in exceeding a goal though and maybe we will in time need to offset the carbon our actions are producing elsewhere in the world.

The goal is economically illiterate to begin with, exceeding is just doubling down on folly. Fortunately, it's the kind of far off target that politicians know they won't be charged with implementing, and I don't have much doubt that it will be dropped when its implications begin to really set in.

 

[The Ham]

Though an important part of the goal is that it’s _Net_ Zero. We don’t have to remove every single source of emissions, or completely decarbonise a sector. As long as across the country emissions are balanced by schemes that remove carbon from the atmosphere, the goal will have been reached

Indeed we don't need to not produce any carbon, however what carbon we do produce would need to dealt with (chances are by carbon capture) which comes at a cost.

Therefore if we can reduce the emissions we create it reduces the costs in dealing with it.

 

[Mordac]

Indeed we don't need to not produce any carbon, however what carbon we do produce would need to dealt with (chances are by carbon capture) which comes at a cost.

Therefore if we can reduce the emissions we create it reduces the costs in dealing with it.

Human life produces carbon. Would you suggest reducing those emissions to reduce the costs in dealing with it too?

 

[The Ham]

Human life produces carbon. Would you suggest reducing those emissions to reduce the costs in dealing with it too?

If you think that you can sell it to the public then it could be beneficial in doing so.

In reality even if we were to try to reduce the carbon created by humans themselves it would be done by reducing the number of children being born. If that were to be tried it would providing birth control rather than any other measures.

 

[Class 170101]

There won’t be that many people driving more than 300 miles a day, let alone doing more than 300 miles and not wanting to stop for 30 mins for a break en route.

But you are assuming that these breaks are near EV infrastructure. Expectations will probably be around charging times being the same as that of filling up a petrol / diesel car today and I'm not aware that EV charging is of that speed. It requires more planning currently than a petrol car.

The infrastructure is proving more than adequate, accoring to EV users in Britain. The more you look into EVs, the more they "tick all the boxes". Quite apart from being much better than filthy petrol cars in every way, you only have to get over the idea of "filling up" at a petrol station. That's not the optimal way of going electric. If you can't charge at home, you can charge while you're shopping, dining, working or parked-up for any other reason. Tesla especially has an amazing network of fast chargers, which is growing every day. EV take-up is accelerating fast - much like the cars do.

But again there is your problem, its not the EV users you need to convince - they already are. Its the fossil fuel car users you need to convince as well as future car users (like 17yr olds) to change and if they don't think they can operate their vehicles in the same way they won't change now and might leave it until the last minute.

 

[edwin_m]

Human life produces carbon. Would you suggest reducing those emissions to reduce the costs in dealing with it too?

If you think that you can sell it to the public then it could be beneficial in doing so.

In reality even if we were to try to reduce the carbon created by humans themselves it would be done by reducing the number of children being born. If that were to be tried it would providing birth control rather than any other measures.

I assume you're referring to CO2 produced by breathing, but that is largely carbon neutral because it is derived from food, and ultimately from plants that take the CO2 out of the air. More people do produce more CO2 indirectly, because they generate agricultural (production of that food) and industrial activity, but if the entire economy became carbon neutral then so would those activities.

 

[HSTEd]

I assume you're referring to CO2 produced by breathing, but that is largely carbon neutral because it is derived from food, and ultimately from plants that take the CO2 out of the air.

Pedant alarm but food calories are not necessarily derived from photosynthetic carbon.
Especially if cattle or other ruminants are involved, although most petroleum derived SCP production has ceased I believe. (It was heavily pursued by the Soviet Union to make use of their enormous petroleum reserves)

 

[The Ham]

I assume you're referring to CO2 produced by breathing, but that is largely carbon neutral because it is derived from food, and ultimately from plants that take the CO2 out of the air. More people do produce more CO2 indirectly, because they generate agricultural (production of that food) and industrial activity, but if the entire economy became carbon neutral then so would those activities.

However it depends on how we get to carbon neutral, if we use a lot of carbon capture than those activities may not be carbon neutral.

However we come back to the point, which is to get to carbon neutral there's likely to be activities (such as the use of EV's) which are likely to require more energy than others (use of rail) and so until we are truly carbon neutral then there's an argument that some modal shift from road to rail would be a good thing and therefore (bringing the tread back on topic) electrification of the railways will be required, even if they are broadly comparable to EV's (not least that we can't afford to allow the railways to carry on using oil when nothing else is as we're not aiming for a figure of a given amount, other than as close to zero as possible).

 

[jfowkes]

I would love to have an EV, but (apart from the cost), the problem is I rent a house. There's little to no incentive for the landlord to have a disruptive, expensive alteration to the house done just for my benefit.

 

[Bald Rick]

But you are assuming that these breaks are near EV infrastructure. Expectations will probably be around charging times being the same as that of filling up a petrol / diesel car today and I'm not aware that EV charging is of that speed. It requires more planning currently than a petrol car.

Almost everywhere is near EV charging infrastructure, particularly if you are driving 300 miles a day. Yes, it might require a little more planning, but if you are doing 300 miles a day, then you’ll be saving about £200 a week in fuel, which makes it worth spending the extra 10 seconds on that planning (almost every EV tells you where charging points are, and plans accordingly).

EV charging isn’t at the same speed as filling a tank of fuel - but it doesn’t need to be. It’s a different mindset. Indeed you save time as you don’t need to go to a petrol station. You charge the car when it’s stationary for other reasons. Popping into the services for the loo and a sandwich? Charging. Parked up in the supermarket whilst shopping? Charging. At home overnight? Charging. In the car park at or near your clients? Charging.

I would love to have an EV, but (apart from the cost), the problem is I rent a house. There's little to no incentive for the landlord to have a disruptive, expensive alteration to the house done just for my benefit.

There will be soon. I know someone who has recently rented a house and specifically looked for somewhere with an EV charger. I believe the owner installed one specially as part of the deal. Fairly soon it will be as common as when you go on holiday when you check if the rental has WiFi.

 

[AM9]

... But again there is your problem, its not the EV users you need to convince - they already are. Its the fossil fuel car users you need to convince as well as future car users (like 17yr olds) to change and if they don't think they can operate their vehicles in the same way they won't change now and might leave it until the last minute.

"Convince" may be the wrong thing to do, think more 'persuade':

1) from 2030 the total number of pure IC road vehicles will start declining, from 2035, the number of carbon burning engines in road vehicles (including plug-in hybrids) will start a steady decline.​

2)However those refusing to accept the loss of petrol/diesel burning cars feel about it they will either move over to EVs or change their lifestyles once the stock of usable IC engines falls sufficiently by not having personal transport. With the decline in demand, there will be no commercial incentive in selling fuel so that supply line will dry up, suitably accelerated by duty increases to raise the cost of creating CO2 from road transport and local restrictions on where those vehicles can be driven, - especially in built-up areas.​

3)Once the sales level of fuels go down, there will be 'pump anxiety' so the residual IC vehicle drivers will need to plan their journeys far more than EV drivers do now.​

 

[HSTEd]

3)Once the sales level of fuels go down, there will be 'pump anxiety' so the residual IC vehicle drivers will need to plan their journeys far more than EV drivers do now.

Or people will just retrofit their cars with larger tanks?
The volume you must surrender for an enormous range with liquid fuels is nothing compared to the volumes battery electric cars surrender as a matter of course.

I think in the end it will be simple attrition that does for the bulk of the IC car fleet, but I see no point try to force the last few percent to switch.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I think in the end it will be simple attrition that does for the bulk of the IC car fleet, but I see no point try to force the last few percent to switch.

Agreed - but what would happen? Pay to pollute possibly?

 

[HSTEd]

Agreed - but what would happen? Pay to pollute possibly?

More likely they end up having to buy relatively expensive synthetic hydrocarbons derived from atmospheric carbon dioxide.

 

[The Ham]

I would love to have an EV, but (apart from the cost), the problem is I rent a house. There's little to no incentive for the landlord to have a disruptive, expensive alteration to the house done just for my benefit.

I suspect that over time this would become less of an issue, new builds are required to provide charging points (mostly in visitor spaces) and the capability to retrofit more chargers easily.

As a home owner you'd have to pay for a charger, and whilst as a renter you'd have no guarantee that you'd be there for very long, I suspect that most landlords would give permission to have a charger installed with quite a few willing to pay something towards it (as people who EV's are only going to get more frequent and as a landlord having something which gives you the edge in getting more renters is likely to help and if you can get it installed for less than full price that's an extra bonus).

Or people will just retrofit their cars with larger tanks?
The volume you must surrender for an enormous range with liquid fuels is nothing compared to the volumes battery electric cars surrender as a matter of course.

I think in the end it will be simple attrition that does for the bulk of the IC car fleet, but I see no point try to force the last few percent to switch.

Once ICE use falls below 50% then it's likely that taxes would start to get increased year on year as the government find it hurts less and less of their voting base.

 

[quantinghome]

The goal is economically illiterate to begin with, exceeding is just doubling down on folly. Fortunately, it's the kind of far off target that politicians know they won't be charged with implementing, and I don't have much doubt that it will be dropped when its implications begin to really set in.

It really isn't. Avoiding the impacts of global warming is the best investment anyone can make from a purely economic standpoint. And the technical solutions are falling into place at a price which will not significantly impact our economy. Low carbon electricity production has rocketed; costs for wind and solar have plummeted. Transport and heating need to switch over to electricity; again the solutions are falling into place. The UK's carbon emissions have already halved from their peak. It's happening.

 

[SECR263]

What happens re lorry batteries. How do these perform? How much longer will a journey take from say Poland to the UK and how much extra will the journey cost paying for a drivers down time or would taco limits mean that enough charge could be taken at a taco break to go to next staging point some 4.5 hours later.

Will current petrol station sites be big enough to cope with cars needing to charge? An 8 pump station can deal with dozens of cars an hour how many in an electric station? 8?

Motorway stations would not be a problem hopefully as all the parking could be "electrified" but if you are down to the red mark on a motorway and you cannot access a motorway station "Sorry all charging points full please proceed to next station" what do you do?

In a tower block area how do all the residents access battery power as there will not be enough curb space to accommodate there cars etc.

I watch a website called Gridwatch http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ Yesterday or the day before the UK was burning about 2.5GW of coal as wind was minimal when demand was nearly up to 42GW. How much more infrastructure (windmills?) is needed to actually generate the extra 2.5GW on a minimal wind day in winter when coal is no longer burnt? Incidentally the interconnectors were running at peak as well.

Can the existing underground street electric infrastructure/substations cope with the extra loads bearing in mind that most of it in London, in residential streets, dates back to the 1920's?

We have many stories promoting electric cars which must come but not much on confirming the infrastructure will all be in place when needed? Similar to the Oven ready deal. Don't worry it will all alright on the night?
I think I have veered off forum Apols.

 

[mr_jrt]

One of the arguments for decentralised power storage (i.e. Tesla powerwalls) was to reduce the loads on the grid. Perhaps we just see things moving that way, even if it ends up that substation sites end up with some storage facilities rather than individual homes.

 

[Bald Rick]

I watch a website called Gridwatch http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ Yesterday or the day before the UK was burning about 2.5GW of coal as wind was minimal when demand was nearly up to 42GW. How much more infrastructure (windmills?) is needed to actually generate the extra 2.5GW on a minimal wind day in winter when coal is no longer burnt? Incidentally the interconnectors were running at peak as well.

None. Coal will be offline in a couple of years, and the extra power needed will come from the interconnectors being built now, and the expansion of energy storage / variable tariffs to help smooth demand.

As it happens, there is 6GW of additional wind coming on line in the next few years too, along with another 6GW by 2026. Even on calm days it will generate 1GW or so, as most of it is in the middle of the North Sea.

Right now the country is burning coal for power, even though it’s a windy day (and a bit sunny!) - but not because it has too. We could comfortably burn more gas now, or import more (we are actually exporting 1GW to France).

One of the arguments for decentralised power storage (i.e. Tesla powerwalls) was to reduce the loads on the grid. Perhaps we just see things moving that way, even if it ends up that substation sites end up with some storage facilities rather than individual homes.

Energy storage is going to be key to decarbonising the Grid, by enabling net demand smoothing over the days and weeks (but not seasons). Battery EVs will be part of that storage solution solution.

 

[AM9]

Or people will just retrofit their cars with larger tanks?
The volume you must surrender for an enormous range with liquid fuels is nothing compared to the volumes battery electric cars surrender as a matter of course.

I think in the end it will be simple attrition that does for the bulk of the IC car fleet, but I see no point try to force the last few percent to switch.

The "last few percent" won't be enough to support a readily available network of fuel dispensing pumps across the country. It will be far more faff than those holding out will endure for general use. There will probably be a skeleton service for those that run (specially licensed) classic vehicles, but the fuel itself will be far too expensive for all but millionaires to use them all the time. Everything to do with polluting engines will get more and more negative in terms of convenience, maximum emissions allowed and cost, meaning that they will then become museum pieces.

Or people will just retrofit their cars with larger tanks?
The volume you must surrender for an enormous range with liquid fuels is nothing compared to the volumes battery electric cars surrender as a matter of course.

That would require re-certification of the vehicle, - after 2033, all pure IC vehicles will have annual visits to MoT centres.

What happens re lorry batteries. How do these perform? How much longer will a journey take from say Poland to the UK and how much extra will the journey cost paying for a drivers down time or would taco limits mean that enough charge could be taken at a taco break to go to next staging point some 4.5 hours later.

That would be up to the supply chain to establish new working practices. They won't have an option.

Will current petrol station sites be big enough to cope with cars needing to charge? An 8 pump station can deal with dozens of cars an hour how many in an electric station? 8?

You are ignoring the point that not every vehicle will be doing a full charge so the average charge time might be less than 10 minutes.

Motorway stations would not be a problem hopefully as all the parking could be "electrified" but if you are down to the red mark on a motorway and you cannot access a motorway Motorists that are daft enough to ignore repeated warnings of the remaining energy level will just have to wait until a space/charger becomes available. That's exactly the same as pulling into a service area when there is a queue at the pumps (not unknown when there is a congestion issue on a motorway), or even the pumps are closed (happens occasionally).

In a tower block area how do all the residents access battery power as there will not be enough curb space to accommodate there cars etc.

Where they have undeground or off-road parking, those places will be fitted with chargers.

I watch a website called Gridwatch http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ Yesterday or the day before the UK was burning about 2.5GW of coal as wind was minimal when demand was nearly up to 42GW. How much more infrastructure (windmills?) is needed to actually generate the extra 2.5GW on a minimal wind day in winter when coal is no longer burnt? Incidentally the interconnectors were running at peak as well.

Can the existing underground street electric infrastructure/substations cope with the extra loads bearing in mind that most of it in London, in residential streets, dates back to the 1920's?

The current infrastructure will need to be upgraded to deliver electric heating to homes, - the capacity to charge EVs would be less than that requirement, and as a lower priority, car charging will be scheduled for off-peak times.

We have many stories promoting electric cars which must come but not much on confirming the infrastructure will all be in place when needed? Similar to the Oven ready deal. Don't worry it will all alright on the night? ...

There will be changes everywhere, but every adult has the vote with which to express their opinion, (i.e. not just motorists).

 

[Bald Rick]

The "last few percent" won't be enough to support a readily available network of fuel dispensing pumps across the country.

I’m going to have disagree with you there. There will still be a network for the foreseeable future (next 30 years at least). I agree it won’t be anywhere near as comprehensive as it is today - which itself is rather less comprehensive than it was 30 years ago (since 1990 the number of petrol stations has more than halved, but the number of cars has almost doubled).

You can draw a parallel with domestic coal merchants - there’s still a network of them (three near us!), despite domestic coal consumption being about 1% of what it was 70 years ago.

 

[AM9]

I’m going to have disagree with you there. There will still be a network for the foreseeable future (next 30 years at least). I agree it won’t be anywhere near as comprehensive as it is today - which itself is rather less comprehensive than it was 30 years ago (since 1990 the number of petrol stations has more than halved, but the number of cars has almost doubled).

You can draw a parallel with domestic coal merchants - there’s still a network of them, despite domestic coal consumption being about 1% of what it was 70 years ago.

I see your argument, but the additional hassle and cost of driving IC vehicles for everyday journeys is likely to drive away (sorry about the pun) all but the most determined users. Then there's the prohibition of creating some particulate/NOx and other harmful pollutants in residential/pedestrian areas likely to be enforced much more rigidly. With the recent landmark coroner's court case, public opinion is likely to be almost unanimously behind any such move.

 

[mcmad]

While for urban and city centres I can see a complete move to non ICE wheeled transport, I suspect it will be a long time before Farmer John's tractor is non ICE and the large areas of the rural countryside away from tourist hotspots is likely to similarly trail behind due to lack of EV charge point and wider electricity network issues.

 

[matacaster]

I wonder if relatively short range electric lorries could provide the spoke (to the business) for a hub and spoke haulage model where electrified rail provided the core inter-hub provision? It would require a change of thinking which I believe focuses on door to door, but it would save a lot of foul diesel emissions and reduce motorway traffic no end. If course capacity and loading gauge would need providing, but perhaps the drop in projected passenger use might be a blessing.