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New 4-tier system for England

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kristiang85

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@SebastianEPayne

New YouGov polling suggests a whopping 79% of Brits support another national lockdown. Up 8pts from late December.

62% also think it was wrong to open some schools this week.

It gets ever more unbelievable.
 
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SS4

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It doesn't matter what the tiers are if nobody is enforcing them.

I wouldn't be surprised if Boris was loving this - look at all the attention he's getting. He's even said he'll brief at 8pm like it's some sort of sporting event so all eyes can be on him. I wonder what time the governmental night rate starts?

It gets ever more unbelievable.

It's not at all unbelievable. All push media (i.e. where the news is broadcast to you) has been in favour of a lockdown and the more exposure the more people start to believe it. If you want to find something that's against government advice you have to go online and find it - it requires active effort to do so.
 

Skimpot flyer

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With half an hour to go until the big announcement, shall we have a game of Boris Briefing Bingo?

There are 24 words and phrases on this card, so perhaps everyone could pick 6, and we can see who wins.
To be absolutely clear
No-one wants
Our amazing NHS
usque in statione erat
It brings me great pain
As we’ve seen this weekend
 

DB

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That makes as much sense as saying that anyone campaigning for an end to a war is not activitist, because not being at war is the "natural state of affairs".

The "natural state of affairs"(as conveniently defined by you to be the exactly the thing you are advocating) is a not what matters, it is the current state of affairs.

The natural state of affairs is the norm in whatever society is being looked at - and given that 'lockdowns' have never before been used it is perfectly reasonable to describe lack of a lockdown as the natural state of affairs - and even more so now that it's been demonstrated that they don't work. Your comparison with wars is simply irrelevant.

As regards me 'conveniently' defining non-lockdown as being the natural state of affairs, are you disputing that this is true? Or are you going to claim that, throughout history, the natural response to a respiratory virus has been to impose damaging restrictions which don't achieve their stated aim?
 

SS4

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It doesn’t surprise me that so many people claim to support lockdown. What they really mean of course is that they support *other people* being locked down.

Nah, I'd say they've been scared into suppressing the rational part of their brain. Fear and Anger both cloud rational judgement and guess which two emotions the news love to incite
 

Kite159

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It doesn’t surprise me that so many people claim to support lockdown. What they really mean of course is that they support *other people* being locked down.

They support lockdown as they get paid to sit at home having been furloughed from their jobs, end of lockdown means they might have to start doing work again.
 

3141

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... a virus with a survival rate of at least 99.7%, and which has already demonstrates that it can happily bypass any restrictions and carry on spreading.
You're good at quoting figures to suit your views, but what's the basis of that one? Nobody knows how many cases there have been against which to calculate the survival rate. But as you know, the severity of the symptoms ranges from nothing at all to death, and once we reach age 50 the chances of not surviving start going up. So far over 75,000 people in Britain have died as a result of Covid and there are currently 26000+ in hospital with it, with the numbers rising rapidly. Do you really think we shouldn't bother?
Trying to eliminate this virus is as futile as attempting to nail a jelly to a wall

Tiers and lockdown are not aiming to eliminate the virus. They are trying to reduce the rate it is spreading and the numbers being infected.

Not being locked down is the natural state of affairs - someone who is advoating that cannot be an activist.

Plenty of counter-arguments using facts have been offered - it simply doesn't work and just receives simplistic answers like "but people are dying" and "so you think we should just let old people die?". No matter how much it is pointed out that the statistics, worldwide, show little or no benefit from restrictions they won't take any notice - in their view, something must be done, and restrictions are something, so they must be done.

The current situation isn't a natural state of affairs - there's a virus with over 85 million known cases worldwide and approaching 2 million deaths. In that situation, playing with words about whether or not your stance against restrictions is some form of activism is frivolous.

In what ways do lockdowns and lesser restrictions like the tier system not work? They have reduced the rate at which the virus is spreading, the number of cases and the number of deaths. Their effectiveness varies in different countries, because the circumstances vary from one country to another. Effectiveness also varies within a country according to the circumstances at different times. When restrictions are lifted and people start behaving as if the problem has gone away the virus spreads more widely again, of course. That's their mistake, not a failure of lockdown.
 

DB

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It doesn’t surprise me that so many people claim to support lockdown. What they really mean of course is that they support *other people* being locked down.

And/or being able to sit at home in front of the television while still getting paid.
 

dgl

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and we are back in full lockdown, most pupils to learn from home until (at the moment) the end of February half term and only go to work if you can't work from home.
Going out is limited to exercise and essential shopping only, vulnerable being people asked to shield.
 

DB

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You're good at quoting figures to suit your views, but what's the basis of that one? Nobody knows how many cases there have been against which to calculate the survival rate.

You're right - nobody does know exactly - but the general view among those who comile the data seems to be that it's somewhere in this region (and yes, it might be a bit either way, but there is enough evidence now to suggest that it is in this region).

In what ways do lockdowns and lesser restrictions like the tier system not work? They have reduced the rate at which the virus is spreading, the number of cases and the number of deaths.

What evidence have you got for that? A look at restrictions versus infection/death stats for countries with widely differing levels of restrictions shows no such correlation (e.g. Sweden has done a lot better than Italy or Spain), and in individual countries there is no evidence to show a correlation. Since the autumn we have seen assorted restrictions, but the number of cases has continued to rise - and please don't use the 'it would have been worse otherwise' as there is no evidence for that either.
 

JonathanP

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So there's a poll, which like all the other poll say that most people think lockdowns are the correct decision currently.

Yet more evidence that YouGov polls aren't at all indicative of the general population.

Oh... but it couldn't possibly be a genuine result, could it, because you don't like it... so they sampled the "wrong people" did they? How convenient.

And/or being able to sit at home in front of the television while still getting paid.

Or people only do it because of ulterior motives. Do you have any evidence for that at all?
 

_toommm_

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I notice he didn’t mention universities when he was talking about schools and colleges. Did anyone hear anything I missed?
 

DB

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So there's a poll, which like all the other poll say that most people think lockdowns are the correct decision currently.

Even if you think Yougov polls are reliable (which I don't - they are geared towards people who have plenty of time on their hands), the information which people are getting to base their views on is hardly balanced, is it? A relentless diet of doom and gloom from the politicians and all of the media. They are simply told that lockdowns 'work', when an acutal look at the data shows that they achieve little or nothing, but the media rarely reports any alternative view - the Daily Mail and Telegraph were improving a bit int he autumn, but with the exception of a few columnists now seem to be back following the government line.
 

Class 33

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A full national lockdown until at least 15th February!!!! Jesus christ. This is just too much to cope with this is. Words can not express how angry I feel towards Boris Johnson, and the likes of Keir Starmer and lots of the media who pushed for this.
 

HSTEd

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A full national lockdown until at least 15th February!!!! Jesus christ. This is just too much to cope with this is. Words can not express how angry I feel towards Boris Johnson, and the likes of Keir Starmer and lots of the media who pushed for this.

After half term holiday (in Manchester) puts it on 22nd Feb.
 

kristiang85

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So there's a poll, which like all the other poll say that most people think lockdowns are the correct decision currently.



Oh... but it couldn't possibly be a genuine result, could it, because you don't like it... so they sampled the "wrong people" did they? How convenient.



Or people only do it because of ulterior motives. Do you have any evidence for that at all?

I'm interested to know if the view amongst your friends / family / colleagues is overwhelmingly pro lockdowns?

Because in my circles it isn't at all, and everybody else I speak to says the same. And this is amongst people in mostly safe, WAH jobs.
 

bramling

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And/or being able to sit at home in front of the television while still getting paid.

Yep. Just waiting for the announcement of furlough being extended to something like September now.

Last one out of Britain turn off the lights, we’re going to have a battered empty shell of a country left by the end of this.
 

philosopher

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A full national lockdown until at least 15th February!!!! Jesus christ. This is just too much to cope with this is. Words can not express how angry I feel towards Boris Johnson, and the likes of Keir Starmer and lots of the media who pushed for this.
Personally I think Boris should resign if he fails to lift the lockdown by mid February as promised.
 

bramling

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I'm interested to know if the view amongst your friends / family / colleagues is overwhelmingly pro lockdowns?

Because in my circles it isn't at all, and everybody else I speak to says the same. And this is amongst people in mostly safe, WAH jobs.

This is the big thing. At my work, the general view has shifted to being very much anti-lockdown, people having generally supported the March one for a variety of reasons (one of which was because everyone thought this was buying time to get things in order, which doesn’t seem to have been achieved to the maximum value possible). I’d struggle to find many pro-lockdown people at my work now, even some of those who have genuine medical vulnerabilities are at the point of being past caring.

By contrast, in my street where there’s a lot of WFH (not so much furlough I don’t think) people want more. They’ll want even more come the spring when they can make proper use of their spacious gardens again.
 
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