Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Bungle73]

If it would genuinely save a lot of lives, I would actually be in favour. Solutions would be found, in terms of heating outdoor spaces, charging more during winter, etc.

The problem is there does not appear to be any correlation between “mild measures” and cases/deaths. And a full lockdown is totally unacceptable.

And what "solutions" do you suggest for cinemas or theatres or music or event venues?

Edit: Or public transport for that matter.

 

[Eyersey468]

If it would genuinely save a lot of lives, I would actually be in favour. Solutions would be found, in terms of heating outdoor spaces, charging more during winter, etc.

The problem is there does not appear to be any correlation between “mild measures” and cases/deaths. And a full lockdown is totally unacceptable.

And what "solutions" do you suggest for cinemas or theatres or music or event venues?

Edit: Or public transport for that matter.

I was just going to ask that. I work on the buses and simply putting extra buses on won't work, we don't have the vehicles or the drivers to start with plus it would mean potentially twice the costs for no increase in revenue.

 

[Cdd89]

And what "solutions" do you suggest for cinemas or theatres or music or event venues? Or public transept for that matter.

This is a moot point, since half-measures plainly don’t work anyway. But in a fantasy world where they did, you’d socially distance cinemas, and accept the spread from theatres and public transport…

 

[takno]

This is a moot point, since half-measures plainly don’t work anyway. But in a fantasy world where they did, you’d socially distance cinemas, and accept the spread from theatres and public transport…

Ultimately you're talking about a situation where overnight we'd have to make a hundred years of changes to our economy, our cities and towns, our roads and railways, our schools and every other aspect of our built environment. Even if the measures did work, it simply wouldn't be worthwhile or viable even if Covid was 50 times as deadly as it is.

 

[DustyBin]

Even if the measures did work, it simply wouldn't be worthwhile or viable even if Covid was 50 times as deadly as it is.

On that, let’s just remind ourselves of what it is we’re actually dealing with here.

The current IFR in England is believed to be 0.096%.

Written questions and answers - Written questions, answers and statements - UK Parliament

Information from UK Parliament on written questions & answers, written statements and daily reports.

questions-statements.parliament.uk

As of 15 July, Public Health England’s modelling group, with the MRC Biostats Unit, estimated that overall infection mortality rate is approximately 0.096%.

Incredible!

 

[Markdvdman]

Watch out for Wales bringing restrictions back due to one case found! It is a joke - they are NOT following REAL science just the agenda for more cash end of!

 

[Jonny]

Watch out for Wales bringing restrictions back due to one case found! It is a joke - they are NOT following REAL science just the agenda for more cash end of!

I would not put it past them. Did restrictions truly go away in Wales? hint hint....

 

[quantinghome]

Thalidomide.

A morning sickness drug - not a vaccine. The Thalidomide scandal shows that new treatments should be properly tested. It bears repeating that C-19 vaccines have been through all the standard trials required - there have been no short cuts.

There were also problems with batches of the Polio vaccine. One of the Witness History programmes on Radio 4 last year covered it. Here's an extract from a CNN article - first I found with an internet search.
CNN article - polio vaccine


In more recent news
The Guardian - Polio Vaccine spreads Polio

The polio vaccine was based on the actual polio virus, inactivated to make it safe, but sometimes this process failed and live polio virus was included in some batches, which caused the problem. C-19 vaccines don't contain the virus so it's impossible for this to happen.

 

[yorkie]

I'm not sure how the Polio vaccine got into this thread but the problem that occurred with Salk's polio vaccine, was due to the live Polio virus being included in some of the vaccine doses made by unscrupulous companies (Cutter and Wyeth). This would be completely impossible to happen with any of the Sars-CoV-2 vaccines, thus any comparisons are not valid.

Different viruses have been around for centuries for example those behind the common cold and possibly the 1890 flu. ...

It's now deemed likely that the pandemic of around 1889/1890 was probably caused by HCoV-OC43; at the time people just assumed all respiratory viruses were 'influenza'. However it was much less harmful to younger people than any other influenza pandemic, so it does seem much more likely that it was a Coronavirus.

 

[Ediswan]

A morning sickness drug - not a vaccine. The Thalidomide scandal shows that new treatments should be properly tested. It bears repeating that C-19 vaccines have been through all the standard trials required - there have been no short cuts.

Morning sickness was not the original use of Thalidomide. The shortcut (not acknowledged at the time) was assuming that because it was virtually impossible to kill lab animals with it, that it can't be toxic to humans. Hence the current phases of clinical trials. 50 years in the future, 'proper testing' may look very different again.

Thalidomide remains useful for leprosy and some cancers.

 

[greyman42]

The Tory on question time now is priceless can’t explain why you can sit in a crowed pub.for hours without a mask but not pop in a shop for five min without a mask also says Downing st party was a meeting in a work place

No one has to go into a pub if they are terrified of catching Covid but you could argue that people have to use shops and public transport.
Regarding Question Time; it appeared to me that the BBC had just arranged 45 minutes of Tory bashing starting of with the boring Xmas party story.

 

[brad465]

No one has to go into a pub if they are terrified of catching Covid but you could argue that people have to use shops and public transport.
Regarding Question Time; it appeared to me that the BBC had just arranged 45 minutes of Tory bashing starting of with the boring Xmas party story.

They need bashing, but not where the bashing has been and still is taking place. It's amazing how so many people have a common enemy in the Government at the moment, but the two main factions with this common enemy attack each other as much as the Government.

 

[Yew]

They need bashing, but not where the bashing has been and still is taking place. It's amazing how so many people have a common enemy in the Government at the moment, but the two main factions with this common enemy attack each other as much as the Government.

I think the issue is that rather than bashing them for knee jerk restrictions with no evidence of effectiveness, they've been going on about this irrelevant party story. No discussion of cost benefit analysis, instead they just want to talk about Cake, Beaujolais and Armagnac.

 

[Eyersey468]

I think the issue is that rather than bashing them for knee jerk restrictions with no evidence of effectiveness, they've been going on about this irrelevant party story. No discussion of cost benefit analysis, instead they just want to talk about Cake, Beaujolais and Armagnac.

I agree there should have been a cost benefit analysis to all the restrictions at the various times they were brought in, this has always been one of my main criticisms with the governments reaction to Covid.

 

[greyman42]

I agree there should have been a cost benefit analysis to all the restrictions at the various times they were brought in, this has always been one of my main criticisms with the governments reaction to Covid.

This is the last thing Labour would of wanted as they were desperate for more lockdowns and restrictions.

 

[Eyersey468]

This is the last thing Labour would of wanted as they were desperate for more lockdowns and restrictions.

Why were Labour so desperate for more lockdowns and restrictions?

 

[adc82140]

Why were Labour so desperate for more lockdowns and restrictions?

Because Labour, which used to be the party of the workers, has somehow morphed in to the party of doing as little work as possible whilst spending other people's money. They need to get back to their roots of representing the interests if the working man and woman, and stop getting bogged down in identity politics.

 

[takno]

This is the last thing Labour would of wanted as they were desperate for more lockdowns and restrictions.

I think labour have knee-jerked into a pretty stupid position on the whole thing. The lack of any credible cost benefit analysis was one of the things that encouraged them to do that though. If there had been any credible attempts to measure the benefits, and any form of measurement of the costs at all, then the political debate would have looked very different.

It's one of the issues of the simplistic two party state and majority government system, that the government are the only people resourced and able to carry out this kind of analysis, but it's completely against their political interests to do so.

 

[yorkie]

Why were Labour so desperate for more lockdowns and restrictions?

Because the vocal far left call for them and Labour erroneously think that its core voters want these sorts of restrictions, purely because of those who shout the loudest.

I think labour have knee-jerked into a pretty stupid position on the whole thing. ...

Indeed. I see the Labour party as traitors pandering to far-left authoritarians.

But back to Omicron:

https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features

..For now, the death rates over the last two weeks.as well as over the past 18 months at the SBAH/TDH complex are lower than the overall in-hospital death rate of 23% for the country over all previous waves, as reported by the NICD....

In summary, the first impression on examination of the 166 patients admitted since the Omicron variant made an appearance, together with the snapshot of the clinical profile of 42 patients currently in the COVID wards at the SBAH/TDH complex, is that the majority of hospital admissions are for diagnoses unrelated to COVID-19. The SARS-CoV-2 positivity is an incidental finding in these patients and is largely driven by hospital policy requiring testing of all patients requiring admission to the hospital...

The relatively low number of COVID-19 pneumonia hospitalizations in the general, high care and ICU wards constitutes a very different picture compared to the beginning of previous waves....

Dr John Campbell has released a video here:

So far, the evidence appears to suggest that the Omicron variant is likely to have increased fitness ("increased transmissibility") but is not likely to lead to more severe symptoms; indeed if anything it appears to be linked to milder symptoms.

Of course it is not confirmed yet and we need another couple of weeks to be more confident, but it is looking promising.

This is of course absolutely in line with predictions and expectations as to how Sars-CoV-2 would evolve and adapt as it becomes an endemic human coronavirus, which we will leave with indefinitely in a state of endemic equilibrium.

If anyone is reading this who is in doubt about whether to get a first or second or third vaccine dose, I would recommend you do so: the vaccines do continue to work against all variants, including Omicron and the increased fitness of Omicron means that anyone who has not yet been exposed to Sars-CoV-2 can be sure that they will be in due course. This virus is very much here to stay and we should not fear it: we need to live with it in the same way we live with other HCoVs.


Also if anyone wants to hear the views of experienced virologists on Omicron, there is this podcast released a few days ago:

TWiV reveals all that we know so far about the variant of concern B.1.1.529, also called Omicron, and describes a study on the ability of the alpha, beta, and delta variants to reproduce in cells in culture and induce membrane fusion.

It is very heavy going as the target audience is people who already know a bit about virology; it's nearly 2 hours long (what I tend to do is listen to these while looking out of the window on train journeys) but in summary they are critical of those who have made bold and alarmist claims about the virus without sufficient evidence. They remain confident that vaccines will continue to be effective.

Twitter users many be familiar with Chise (twitter.com/sailorooscout) who works in vaccine development and has spent countless hours throughout the last year debunking bogus claims which cast doubt on the longevity of immunity and the effectiveness of vaccines.

She has tweeted a thread, containing links to numerous sources:

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1466843201201975302

If you are wondering what is going on in South Africa in regards to Omicron, doctors describe what they are seeing thus far. https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-03/omicron-up-close-south-africa-s-experts-tell-their-stories

In regards to the rise in cases, this isn’t exactly surprising based on the study I highlighted yesterday on Omicron’s ability to reinfect. Per in article in this thread, hospitalizations seem to be lower proportion of cases than previous waves. https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.11.21266068v2

Update from Steve Biko Hospital in Tshwane. While numbers of hospitalized patients with Omicron in South Africa have been high, rates of COVID pneumonia are low. Most cases are incidentally diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 (pediatric cases as well). https://samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features

Omicron very well may have picked up a snippet of the same genetic sequence that appears many times in one of the coronaviruses that causes colds in people - known as HCoV-229E. Study link can be found here: https://reuters.com/business/healt

 

[Yew]

indeed if anything it appears to be linked to milder symptoms.

Of course it is not confirmed yet and we need another couple of weeks to be more confident, but it is looking promising.

I'm not sure if they have successfully disambiguated between it being milder, or if it is just the effect of the vaccines; but either one is good!

 

[yorkie]

I'm not sure if they have successfully disambiguated between it being milder, or if it is just the effect of the vaccines; but either one is good!

In South Africa the vaccination rate is very low. But it is a younger population.

It could, in part, be having milder effects due to population immunity from previous waves; without knowing the seroprevalence in SA it is difficult to comment.

The situation should be a lot clearer in a couple of weeks time.

 

[philosopher]

In South Africa the vaccination rate is very low. But it is a younger population.

It could, in part, be having milder effects due to population immunity from previous waves; without knowing the seroprevalence in SA it is difficult to comment.

The situation should be a lot clearer in a couple of weeks time.

South Africa has a very high HIV positive population, with many of them being undiagnosed. Those with HIV, particularly if untreated will have weakened immune systems so could be more prone to reinfection. Countries with lower HIV rates therefore should hopefully see lower impacts from Omicron.

 

[yorkie]

I wonder why the fact that new viruses can appear seems strange to people. Evolution is not just confined to certain species.

I recommend listening to this podcast:

TWiV 619: Recombination led to emergence of SARS-CoV-2​

Raul Rabadan joins TWiV to explain the use of computational biology to demonstrate how recombination and mutation led to emergence of SARS-CoV-2.

The most relevant part of the podcast to current events, is at around 42 minutes, where, where the possibility of Sars-CoV-2 undergoing recombination in humans is considered and at 42 min 45 seconds Raul Rabadan says "...it would be interesting to see recombination in Sars-CoV-2 with one of the existing betacoronaviruses in humans"; it sounds like there is now a strong possibility that this has actually happened...

South Africa has a very high HIV positive population, with many of them being undiagnosed. Those with HIV, particularly if untreated will have weakened immune systems so could be more prone to reinfection. Countries with lower HIV rates therefore should hopefully see lower impacts from Omicron.

That's a good point; it will be very interesting to compare the data from other places, in due course.

It's also worth bearing in mind that a reinfection of this latest variant in someone who is unvaccinated but has had a prior infection with an earlier variant would not be unexpected (this is what coronaviruses do) and indeed the latest infection will act as a booster from an immunological point of view.

 

[Mojo]

A lot of people are sharing stories about increased numbers of young people being hospitalised. Is there any truth in this?

 

[yorkie]

A lot of people are sharing stories about increased numbers of young people being hospitalised. Is there any truth in this?

Based on the sources I've read, SARS-CoV-2 positivity is an incidental finding, largely driven by hospital policy requiring testing of all patients. Also young people who are in hospital are mild cases and not in hospital for very long. It sounds like there is a lot of fear-mongering by people who are keen to call for restrictions.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

I'm afraid the issue has moved beyond choice, certainly in some places globally if not yet entirely at a national level. Although many would suggest that the Scots and Welsh have already arrived there with the passport scheme, that of course is one for perpetual debate.

Placing your trust entirely in what scientists who have been put in front of the cameras by government tell you, is indeed one way of approaching this. However, it is clear that there are sizeable gaps in their own knowledge, and the current approach regarding boosters is by their own admission a bit of a "best shot" panic effort; that much was very clear from the Omicron briefing. You suggest that healthy people in their 40s have died as a direct result of not being vaccinated - how many people do you think are in that category? People of a similar age have died as a direct result of bloodclots caused by the vaccine; here are a few of them:

51, from Wales:

Woman, 51, died after Covid vaccine triggered blood clots

“The deceased died as the consequences of the unrecognised, rare complications of a recently administered elective and necessary Covid-19 vaccination.”

www.google.com

35, from London:

'Wonderful and loving' mum died from complications of AstraZeneca Covid vaccine

Healthy Alpa Tailor, 35, who took the vaccine to 'protect her family', fell ill just over a week after getting her first dose in March this year after complaining of a headache

www.google.com

34, from New S Wales:

NSW woman, 34, becomes Australia's seventh AstraZeneca-related death

The Therapeutic Goods Administration says the woman died on Wednesday from a confirmed case of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome.

www.abc.net.au

44, From Newcastle:

BBC presenter Lisa Shaw died of Covid vaccine complications, coroner finds

Shaw died of a brain haemorrhage caused by a blood clot three weeks after her first AstraZeneca dose

www.theguardian.com

51, "probable" says pathologist, from Portsmouth:

Inquest told former Portsmouth woman died after AstraZeneca vaccine probably led to blood clots

A PATHOLOGIST has told an inquest that the AstraZeneca vaccine probably led to blood clots that killed a woman who had taken the jab.

www.google.com

My intention was to post one link, the BBC presenter from Newcaste, which I was aware of. I'm actually pretty shocked to have found that many examples, on the first page of a Google search for "woman dies from astrazeneca". How many unreported deaths do you think there have been globally? That's in addition to the recognised issues with clot risk in youngsters. Maybe they were all just amazing coincidence and the Coroners all got it wrong - after all, they're not scientists.

As I said, placing your faith entirely in the government scientists is entirely your choice, and no doubt that makes you a very good citizen indeed, but it would be wise to refrain from professing at this relatively early stage that those who have their doubts are unequivocally wrong.

To clarify, I am not an anti vaxxer! I've had both of my initial doses, and suffered no ill effects of any sort. However, I do have concerns over what appears to have turned into a policy of merrily jabbing endlessly away until a better idea comes along.

Only unusual and rare occurrences make news stories. The reason such deaths are on the news is because they’re so unusual…

 

[Yew]

Based on the sources I've read, SARS-CoV-2 positivity is an incidental finding, largely driven by hospital policy requiring testing of all patients. Also young people who are in hospital are mild cases and not in hospital for very long. It sounds like there is a lot of fear-mongering by people who are keen to call for restrictions.

That seems consistent with the reports from SA that I've seen, lots of incidental cases, and hospital stays at around 3 days, down from 8.

 

[Bikeman78]

Because Labour, which used to be the party of the workers, has somehow morphed in to the party of doing as little work as possible whilst spending other people's money. They need to get back to their roots of representing the interests if the working man and woman, and stop getting bogged down in identity politics.

Talking of Labour, it looks like more bad news for Wales. Even Drakeford admits that vaccine passports make little difference be he's keen to press on anyway.

MSN

www.msn.com

As the Omicron variant finds its way to Wales, the Welsh Government are monitoring the situation ahead of making any further decision on extending the Covid Pass system to pubs, restaurants and cafes.


Ministers are to consider whether they need to expand the scheme ahead of Christmas, reports Business Live.

With the next review of regulations taking place on Friday, December 10, time will tell if more parts of normal life will require a Covid Pass.

READ MORE: Ex-Prestatyn Town manager who led double life as drug dealer is locked up

Covid passes are needed in Wales for nightclubs, cinemas, concerts, theatres and some events, although First Minister Mark Drakeford told Politics Wales that at best he could only claim "it makes that extra marginal difference alongside everything else you do".

He said he did not think they would be considering extending passes to hospitality if they had only been dealing with the dominant Delta variant.

 

[Towers]

Talking of Labour, it looks like more bad news for Wales. Even Drakeford admits that vaccine passports make little difference be he's keen to press on anyway.

Absolutely bonkers, the damage being done to businesses, the economy and people's livelihoods would surely (if isn't already) outweigh any clear benefit against what looks increasingly like a mild strain.

Only unusual and rare occurrences make news stories. The reason such deaths are on the news is because they’re so unusual…

Rather like Covid deaths (as in "from", not "with" or "they had it three weeks ago and have just been hit by a number 38 bus") in healthy 30 and 40 year olds, then. Also rather rare...

 

[brad465]

Javid speaking in the Commons confirms that community transmission of Omicron is going on. Doesn't look like any new restrictions/measures are coming alongside at this stage, but one wonders how much pressure he'll receive and cave into in the run-up to Christmas?

Interestingly ex-PM May seems to be the sane one here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-59545557

Former Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May says Omicron appears to be more transmissible than past variants but also appears to lead to less serious disease.

She says "variants will continue to appear year after year" and argues: "We cannot respond to each new variants by stopping and starting our economy which leads to businesses and jobs being lost".

Sajid Javid warns that MPs "shouldn't jump to conclusions on the severity of Omicron" before more data is available.