Whatever the justifications for boosting/third jabs etc. the fact that, despite the vaccines, we are still a lot further from normality than many would have expected by now is posing a credibility problem....
I completely agree, and as someone who is pro-vaccination I find this infuriating. The messaging has been wrong on so many levels.
There seems to be a worrying tendency in some quarters to lump measures such as vaccines, masks, hand washing etc. together as if they’re equivalents. This also weakens the case for seeing vaccines as the pathway out as people might (reasonably!) conclude that the reason they are still required to wear masks when virtually everyone is vaccinated is because masks are effective, or (worse) because vaccines are ineffective.
Without wishing to get too much into the mask debate here, as I've said before, the pro-maskers do seem to be denying the effectiveness of vaccines (as well as missing the point of vaccines) in order to further their agenda.
To me the booster thing now boils down to a simple question : do the vaccines give long-lasting immunity or not, in the way one would expect a vaccine to do - in the same way a natural infection would?
There is every reason to believe that two doses of the vaccine, when properly spaced out, will give a long lasting response. Unfortunately the media focus on detectable antibody levels which completely misses the point; what matters is that we have memory B & T cells and the B cells create antibodies when required. There is no reason to believe vaccines will be anything other than long-lasting where it matters, i.e. preventing serious illness.
If they do, then boosters are unnecessary for everyone other than the immunocompromised and/or very elderly.
If they do not, we need to be asking serious questions as to why not.
Pretty much everything else is dancing around that question, and there seems to be an awful lot of avoiding answering that question going on right now.
I don't think it's a binary thing; as I said above two doses, one mRNA and one viral vector, spaced over a lengthy period, would almost certainly be absolutely sufficient for the vast majority of people and render boosters obsolete but we can't turn back the clock.
The epidemic will be over once we reach a high level of immunity; we will reach this through a combination of vaccinations and infections. People who choose not to get vaccinated will need to be exposed to the virus on multiple occasions to gain the same level of immunity as someone who has had three doses of the vaccine.
It does seem odd that some people are against boosters but also against restrictions.
Putin appears to have hit the nail squarely on the head.
"Omicron variant may be a 'live Covid vaccine', claims Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin has compared omicron to a “live vaccine”.
On Tuesday the Russian President suggested fears about omicron, a highly mutated coronavirus strain which is designated a variant of concern by the World Health Organization, may turn out to be “premature”.
“Let’s not get ahead of ourselves,” Mr Putin said. “They say it’s not that virulent. Some specialists even call it a live vaccine.”
For someone who is already vaccinated, an Omricon infection will act as a booster. The more prior immunity the individual has at the time of infection, the more likely they are to have mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. Virologists I listen to have been predicting this for a year or so.
Astrazenica which is a "proper" vaccine, using doctored viruses that resemble covid, appears to be very effective long term and also against new variants as it triggera the T Cells.
Novel mRNA spike vaccines, not so much.
There is some evidence the mRNA vaccines are better for rapidly building up immunity but viral vector vaccines may be better for longer term immunity, but it's early days yet. Of course, the best thing we can do is get some of each; those of us who were lucky enough to get AZ first time round are able to achieve that with boosters. I think it's unfortunate that AZ boosters are not available for those who had mRNA vaccines.
It was and is a novel virus, so no one can know at any time exactly what the "path out" is going to be; knowledge about the best way to combat it is continuously developing. Certainly vaccines are part of the path out, but no medical experts have ever advised that we just need to all get two jabs and it'll be fine. If anyone's conveyed that message it's been politicians or the media telling people what they want to hear.
Immunity, through vaccinations and infections
is the way out. No ifs, no buts. We will reach a state of endemic equilibrium.
The "let it rip" approach just doesn't work even if you are happy to accept the deaths that would result directly.
I don't understand what you mean by this? I see you are talking in the future tense, which I find particularly puzzling.
The limiting factor is, and always has been, what the health service can cope with. In fact it's only the threat of the health service being overwhelmed that has actually prompted our current government to introduce restrictions.
The number of people in hospital with Sars-CoV-2 is at very low levels compared to last Winter; it can cope.
We are now seeing a tsunami of patients who are suffering due to the effects of measures which people such as yourself are lauding.
This is what seems to be missing from much of the Omicron discussion here - it doesn't matter if it's somewhat milder than Delta, if it's significantly more transmissible. If it's much more transmissible, and there seems to be enough evidence of this to be worried about it, then a very large number of people can get it in a very short time, and even if it's only a small fraction of those who need hospital treatment, that's a huge number of people suddenly needing care.
The virus is running out of immunologically naive people to infect; most of those who refuse to get vaccinated have been exposed to the virus already and another infection is necessary to give them a natural booster. Yes a small proportion of people will become seriously ill but the health system can cope and we cannot force people to be vaccinated; we have to get back to normal life. There is no other viable option. We will not be locked down or restricted. I will not listen to anyone who tries to restrict what I can or can't do and I know many others feel the same way. Restrict yourself if you want; that is your choice.
The suggestion at present is that case numbers under Omicron might double in two or three days rather than two or three weeks. You just have to do the maths to see how quickly a thousand cases turns into a few million.
I note that people with no symptoms count as a 'case'; cases are increasingly irrelevant and will become even more irrelevant as time goes on.
At the moment we have 40,000 odd positive tests a day and about 700 people admitted to hospital a day. Make that 4 million positive tests a day - then you're talking about 70,000 people admitted to hospital per day, going by the current rate of hospitalisations per positive test, with Delta predominant and a largely vaccinated population.
This is pure fantasy on your part.
But what if Omicron turns out to be much milder, and the number of people testing positive who end up needing hospital treatment reduces tenfold? Then we're "only" looking at 7,000 hospitalisations per day - but that's still well above the peak (about 4,500) we saw in either of the previous waves. And if it turns out to be true that cases could double every three days? Then do the maths to see how many people are showing up at hospital a week later.
This can't be a serious post...
As vaccinations start to take effect, and/or new mutations prove to be less severe, then sure, the risk to you or I individually, of needing hospital treatment or becoming badly ill, becomes pretty small.
The risk to me is absolutely miniscule; it will not "become small". The risks to society of imposing restrictions are far greater; the obsession with Covid over all else needs to stop.
Yeah it's a mild thing for the vast majority who catch it. But that's not the point, the point is about what the healthcare system can cope with, even if you're happy to accept that some people will just die of covid and life's never risk free, etc etc etc.
We coped last winter with exponentially more people in hospital than we have right now and there is no way we would ever reach those levels again; anyone who claims otherwise would have to be an extreme disbeliever in the vaccines
I do also wonder what sort of sized Tory rebellion will exist for any future imposition: we know the CRG are largely opposed, and with Theresa May proving a broken clock is right twice a day with her statement on Omicron on Monday, it's possible more backbenchers are moving that way.
I certainly hope so; the Government need to stop listening to deluded Labour and the Grauniad journalists and start listening to Theresa May instead.
