Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Jonny]

That's the next one on the list.

We'll see if they have the balls.

I think we'll be at beta-sigma (not to be mistaken for bravo sierra) long before they use the Xi variant. That and the Omicron being an anagram of...

By the way, I've just seen that "Omicron" is an anagram of "moronic", which pretty much describes the fuss over it

Especially since, last time around, most demographic groups had very low mortality rates. The whole pandemic-situation farce is getting that way. We never did any of this for flu.

So this announcement comes on a day where there are 39567 cases - 10.5K lower than yesterday. Hospital figures also still falling. I had been concerned the recent rise above 50k was this variant already spreading. Lets hope the 3 week is just to monitor figures, and measures are relaxed again if there's no exponential rise.

I am also concerned that 3 weeks takes us to a week before Christmas and its starting to feel like last year repeating itself.

Are they trying to push vaccines again (this time mostly boosters and children).

3 weeks to flatten the curve.

... over 18 months ago. Heading to three jabs to keep your job.

 

[big_rig]

So this announcement comes on a day where there are 39567 cases - 10.5K lower than yesterday. Hospital figures also still falling. I had been concerned the recent rise above 50k was this variant already spreading. Lets hope the 3 week is just to monitor figures, and measures are relaxed again if there's no exponential rise.

I am also concerned that 3 weeks takes us to a week before Christmas and its starting to feel like last year repeating itself.

History is certainly repeating itself it seems like. The new measures being taken look like an absolute waste of time and I would be surprised if they are not strengthened in the next ten days.

Does anybody believe that wearing masks in shops and taking a few more tests would have stopped the introduction of the Delta variant? Of course not, yet we’re being told these are prudent steps and all that’s required. This new one will, if it is more transmissible than Delta, become dominant in every country on earth before too long. If vaccines are less effective on it, and nobody knows anything at all about this, literally nothing, then it is what it is. There’s nothing anybody can do to stop it, and trying to slow it merely delays the inevitable (especially when undertaking absolutely useless measures). Or, the vaccines work fine, but there is the threat of whatever stupid name is thought up for the ‘next’ variant that might or might not be worse. ‘Cautious and irreversible’ indeed.

 

[abn444]

Comparing case numbers between consecutive days is meaningless because of weekly fluctuations in testing, you should be comparing to the same day last week.

Down 3% on last week I believe

 

[Jonny]

The vaccine companies are already pushing their wares. A little too quickly in my opinion...

COVID-19: New vaccines 'ready in 100 days' if Omicron variant is resistant to current jabs, Pfizer says

Novavax added it has already started creating a COVID-19 vaccine based on the known genetic sequence of B.1.1.529 "and will have it ready to begin testing and manufacturing within the next few weeks".

news.sky.com

Article extract:

COVID-19: New vaccines 'ready in 100 days' if Omicron variant is resistant to current jabs, Pfizer says
Novavax added it has already started creating a COVID-19 vaccine based on the known genetic sequence of B.1.1.529 "and will have it ready to begin testing and manufacturing within the next few weeks".
Connor Sephton

Vaccine manufacturers have expressed confidence that they will be able to rapidly adapt their jabs if the Omicron variant spreads.

The new strain - previously known as B.1.1.529 - features some "concerning" mutations, and early evidence suggests it brings an increased risk of reinfection.

There are also fears that the variant could be more resistant to the vaccines that have now been rolled out to billions of people around the world.

If this is the case, Pfizer and BioNTech expects "to be able to develop and produce a tailor-made vaccine against that variant in approximately 100 days, subject to regulatory approval".

Moderna said it has advanced a "comprehensive strategy to anticipate new variants of concern" since early 2021 - including three levels of response if the immunity offered by its jabs wanes.

Novavax added it has already started creating a COVID-19 vaccine based on the known genetic sequence of B.1.1.529 "and will have it ready to begin testing and manufacturing within the next few weeks".

(article continues)

Is it just me or does it seem to be too quick?

 

[MikeWM]

3 weeks to flatten the curve.

Indeed. Incredible they've gone for '3 weeks until review' now too. Do they think we've forgotten how this started? They just don't care.

In any event, they've certainly managed to flatten the morale of the people and completely flatten international travel, perhaps forever.

Are they trying to push vaccines again (this time mostly boosters and children).

Yes. We need to panic because there's a risk this variant might evade the vaccines - so very important get your booster vaccine (that the variant might evade). They're just mocking us with this nonsense - they think they can get away with treating us like total fools.

... over 18 months ago. Heading to three jabs to keep your job.

Only three? No-one still thinks it will end with a single 'booster', surely?

 

[nw1]

Indeed. Incredible they've gone for '3 weeks until review' now too. Do they think we've forgotten how this started? They just don't care.

In any event, they've certainly managed to flatten the morale of the people and completely flatten international travel, perhaps forever.

That's the thing, and it's not just international travel but all areas of the economy. For example, are people going to be scared off shops, pubs and restaurants now? We're going, presumably, to get one of these mutations every few months - it'll be Pi in March, Rho in July, Sigma this time next year... are we going to react the same way every time for the next, what, 5-10 years? Questions need to be asked of the politicians about when this will ever end, and no-one from the media, certainly, is doing this. I'm beginning to wonder whether it will only end when pretty dire economic consequences, such as a global crash, occur as a result.

 

[yorksrob]

That's the thing, and it's not just international travel but all areas of the economy. For example, are people going to be scared off shops, pubs and restaurants now? We're going, presumably, to get one of these mutations every few months - it'll be Pi in March, Rho in July, Sigma this time next year... are we going to react the same way every time for the next, what, 5-10 years? Questions need to be asked of the politicians about when this will ever end, and no-one from the media, certainly, is doing this. I'm beginning to wonder whether it will only end when pretty dire economic consequences, such as a global crash, occur as a result.

So long as they don't actually start closing things forcibly, I think that the majority of the public will continue using them.

 

[Ediswan]

The vaccine companies are already pushing their wares. A little too quickly in my opinion...

COVID-19: New vaccines 'ready in 100 days' if Omicron variant is resistant to current jabs, Pfizer says

Novavax added it has already started creating a COVID-19 vaccine based on the known genetic sequence of B.1.1.529 "and will have it ready to begin testing and manufacturing within the next few weeks".

news.sky.com

Is it just me or does it seem to be too quick?

To quick as in 'why start so soon' or too quick as in 'only 100 days' ?

 

[MikeWM]

That's the thing, and it's not just international travel but all areas of the economy. For example, are people going to be scared off shops, pubs and restaurants now? We're going, presumably, to get one of these mutations every few months - it'll be Pi in March, Rho in July, Sigma this time next year... are we going to react the same way every time for the next, what, 5-10 years? Questions need to be asked of the politicians about when this will ever end, and no-one from the media, certainly, is doing this.

Of course that's the key difference from last year. When all these measures were piled on last autumn/winter, there was the promise of an end and indeed an end soon (via vaccination).

There's no such promise now, we're in a pattern that quite literally could continue for the rest of time. I don't think we're prepared to accept that, at least I very much hope not.

Equally though, how does a business cope with that? Perhaps more importantly, how does any new business ever get off the ground in such circumstances, even if a financial institution decides to lend to them given the massive risk?

I'm beginning to wonder whether it will only end when pretty dire economic consequences, such as a global crash, occur as a result.

Some of the 'conspiracy theorists' have posited that the whole thing is effectively a cover for a financial crash that was already about to happen. I honestly don't know enough about economics to evaluate that theory, and it isn't top of my personal ideas about what is really going on, but it is clear that for whatever reason the economy is no longer the priority for governments, which is a change totally unprecedented in our lifetimes. Only in times of existential warfare has that been the case previously.

 

[nw1]

Of course that's the key difference from last year. When all these measures were piled on last autumn/winter, there was the promise of an end and indeed an end soon (via vaccination).

There's no such promise now, we're in a pattern that quite literally could continue for the rest of time. I don't think we're prepared to accept that, at least I very much hope not.

That's why I think a lot of people are now getting seriously frightened about the long term consequences. I've said this elsewhere; I don't have a problem with mask measures but I do have concern about the 'what next' - further lockdowns? Even if there are no lockdowns, the very threat of more severe restrictions may impact on the way businesses are run I suspect; they will not be willing to spend money they end up losing. I also think the restrictions on international travel to nearby countries like continental Europe (PCR mandates again) are futile. We have it, they will have it very soon, so why restrict travel? Politicians do seem to be very fond of travel restrictions, yet the only valid reason IMO for travel restrictions between two given countries is where one country has a lot of it, and the other, barely any.

Whatever happens, politicians need to be presenting a long term plan for dealing with the situation which does not leave us in a constant state of fear.

 

[brad465]

Has anyone asked how ill are the people with this new variant ?

This was surprisingly absent from the news conference. I suppose, to be fair, it’s early days still.

If we had proper journalism, we'd have long ago got demands to break down positive tests into categories like: number of people with symptoms, number of people with no symptoms at time but go onto develop them, number of people who never get symptoms, and, as is already done, number who go to hospital and number who die with covid, among other possibilities.

Is it just me or does it seem to be too quick?

If restrictions/a lockdown had to be reintroduced until that updated vaccine was ready and being rolled out, 100 days + amount of time to roll it out widely enough is far far too long, such that I wouldn't be surprised if any number of the following things happen: the economy completely collapses, the virus is so infectious even total lockdown doesn't stop it (see Australia in response to Delta), and/or there is widespread revolt.

 

[nw1]

If we had proper journalism, we'd have long ago got demands to break down positive tests into categories like: number of people with symptoms, number of people with no symptoms at time but go onto develop them, number of people who never get symptoms, and, as is already done, number who go to hospital and number who die with covid, among other possibilities.

I certainly think focusing on the number seriously ill is more valuable than the number of cases.

 

[bramling]

That's why I think a lot of people are now getting seriously frightened about the long term consequences. I've said this elsewhere; I don't have a problem with mask measures but I do have concern about the 'what next' - further lockdowns? Even if there are no lockdowns, the very threat of more severe restrictions may impact on the way businesses are run I suspect; they will not be willing to spend money they end up losing. I also think the restrictions on international travel to nearby countries like continental Europe (PCR mandates again) are futile. We have it, they will have it very soon, so why restrict travel? Politicians do seem to be very fond of travel restrictions, yet the only valid reason IMO for travel restrictions between two given countries is where one country has a lot of it, and the other, barely any.

Whatever happens, politicians need to be presenting a long term plan for dealing with the situation which does not leave us in a constant state of fear.

Even today’s missive is quite damaging. Surely a lot of business owners must at this moment be wondering whether it is worth taking the risk when planning for the next few weeks, especially as any reassurances or promised from Boris are utterly meaningless given what a sick history of u-turns he has.

 

[Pete_uk]

Assuming there will be no furlough scheme there is no way any kind of lockdown can take place.

 

[bramling]

Assuming there will be no furlough scheme there is no way any kind of lockdown can take place.

Boris will announce it, and “Rish will set out more over the next few days or so”.

 

[brad465]

Even today’s missive is quite damaging. Surely a lot of business owners must at this moment be wondering whether it is worth taking the risk when planning for the next few weeks, especially as any reassurances or promised from Boris are utterly meaningless given what a sick history of u-turns he has.

There was a notable sell off in the stock markets on Friday. I'm expecting Monday will see an even more significant one, which will highlight the situation we are in. What we need are key business groups and airline/travel industry groups to come out with very serious ultimatums about the future, or lack of, for their businesses and the economic impacts of disappearing for good, and in particular highlight the role their taxes play in supporting the NHS and the jobs they provide. It's easy to say "lives before the economy", but there comes a point where they become very well entwined.

 

[317 forever]

Not sure what "Omicron" means.

Sounds like the name of a Mike Oldfield album to me.

Also the name of the French President

 

[yorksrob]

Also the name of the French President

Absolutely

 

[317 forever]

3 weeks to flatten the curve.

So this announcement comes on a day where there are 39567 cases - 10.5K lower than yesterday. Hospital figures also still falling. I had been concerned the recent rise above 50k was this variant already spreading. Lets hope the 3 week is just to monitor figures, and measures are relaxed again if there's no exponential rise.

I am also concerned that 3 weeks takes us to a week before Christmas and its starting to feel like last year repeating itself.

If they really decide to flatten the curve now, they could actually reduce the likelihood of cases coming down

 

[Jonny]

To quick as in 'why start so soon' or too quick as in 'only 100 days' ?

Mostly the starting, but the 100 days does seem a little on the too good to be true side.

 

[Ediswan]

Mostly the starting, but the 100 days does seem a little on the too good to be true side.

Would you prefer that the vaccine manufaturers wait until Omicron is deemed to need a new vaccine, which (hopefully) may never happen ? Strikes me that they are taking a commercial risk in starting the development and testing now, without knowing whether there will ever be any customers.

Can't comment on the development time. Others may have more knowledge.

 

[Yew]

Would you prefer that the vaccine manufaturers wait until Omicron is deemed to need a new vaccine, which (hopefully) may never happen ? Strikes me that they are taking a commercial risk in starting the development and testing now, without knowing whether there will ever be any customers.

Can't comment on the development time. Others may have more knowledge.

The wonderful thing with some of our vaccine platforms is that we can probably have a suitable candidate ready for trials in a matter of weeks.

 

[Domh245]

Mostly the starting, but the 100 days does seem a little on the too good to be true side.

The original Pfizer/BioNTech began development in early January as soon as the genetic sequence of 'wild-type' SARS-CoV-2 was published, and entered stage I/II trials 104 days later. It strikes me as entirely feasible to therefore have a suitably modified vaccine starting production in 100 days, given "all" they need to do is change the RNA sequence they currently use to the latest one. The article (and wider talk) don't make clear whether it is 100 days to first batch being produced (easily done on this evidence, but rather useless to society at that point), or 100 days before it's being administered to patients at scale

 

[Yew]

The article (and wider talk) don't make clear whether it is 100 days to first batch being produced (easily done on this evidence, but rather useless to society at that point), or 100 days before it's being administered to patients at scale

Indeed, I don't have a clear picture how, if it is needed, the approval process works for small changes to vaccines like this...

 

[asw22]

I wonder if there is enough money to support another 10 months of furlough with the recent increase in national insurance, reduction in universal credit, scaling down of HS2 etc.
Dec 2020: alpha variant found
July 2021: restrictions lifted
Sept 2021: end of furlough
Nov 2021: omicron variant
July 2022: restrictions lifted?
Sep 2022: end of furlough?

Unfortunately the opinion polls seem to support restrictions just after the govt popularity has fallen, while the good news of a vaccine against the variant boosts the polls back up in March / April 2022.

Fortunately, according to the media, all other diseases no longer exist so you'll live forever if you are vaccinated.

 

[WestRiding]

Well. Arrived in Krakow this evening to learn that the rules changed while at 37000 foot. Annoyed doesn't do how I feel justice. Hotel booked at East Midlands for return that we cannot now use, and we have 2 lateral flow test that cost 40 quid, now useless too.

 

[Mag_seven]

Unfortunately the opinion polls seem to support restrictions just after the govt popularity has fallen

Ah the opinion polls almost exclusively filled in by retired people in big houses who hardly ever go out anyway.

 

[Bikeman78]

Well. Arrived in Krakow this evening to learn that the rules changed while at 37000 foot. Annoyed doesn't do how I feel justice. Hotel booked at East Midlands for return that we cannot now use, and we have 2 lateral flow test that cost 40 quid, now useless too.

At the risk of being thick, why can't you use the hotel? If the plane lands too late for you to get home the same day, what other option do you have?

 

[Cdd89]

Hotel booked at East Midlands for return that we cannot now use

I would check the legislation once published before you write off the hotel. Under the existing isolation requirements for unvaccinated people, you’re permitted to change your isolation address whilst isolating with a genuine reason, eg a stopover to reach home. You simply list both addresses on the locator form (it’s designed to allow this).

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Ah the opinion polls almost exclusively filled in by retired people in big houses who hardly ever go out anyway.

I wondered when someone would track me down.....