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Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

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yorkie

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Have I understood this correctly? If there is this inevitability, then is there any point in vaccinations
The inevitability makes vaccination even more important!

Vaccines train your immune system for a pathogen, so that when you encounter the real virus, your adaptive immune system is already primed and ready to mount an immune response.

Anyone not vaccinated is relying initially on their innate immune system and has no prior knowledge of the virus; it's like choosing to go into a battle without all the armour and intel you could potentially have.

Two (or more) doses of vaccine, with a suitable gap* between them offers excellent protection against severe symptoms.

However, while the vaccines do a stellar job, they cannot completely prevent infections and the only way to get absolutely optimal levels of immunity is to be exposed to the full virus, not just the spike protein.

So we an only truly reach full endemic equilibrium once the majority of the population has been exposed to the actual virus.

(* some virologists/immunologists suggest a gap of around 6 months between first and last dose for optimal protection; 3rd/'booster' doses can make up for the first two doses being a shorter gap than is optimal. There is more detail on this in other threads)


or mask wearing?
See the effectiveness of masks thread (which I've linked to a few times) but FFP3 masks will prevent nearly all infections (if properly worn, stored and replaced) but standard masks don't prevent infection; it's all detailed in previous threads.

Is the only point to prevent the NHS from getting overwhelmed all in one go?
Right now there are concerns that the NHS might be overwhelmed if too many people are exposed to the virus in one go.

There were similar fears in South Africa but it didn't happen there. The signs are looking promising here but it's too early to be certain.

In the longer term, everyone is going to get it, and it is probably better that it happens this Spring and Summer than leaving it until next Winter when the NHS will be under the usual winter pressures.

That was the argument behind "three weeks to flatten the curve" way back in March 2020. Since then I feel some people have lost sight of that, due to Johnsons counterfeit-churchillian rhetoric about "defeating the virus"
Yes we then seemed to change to an elimination strategy and then it was realised that was not possible and we were in a strange limbo for a while, but there is now a growing acceptance that the epidemic will end by reaching endemic equilibrium.
 
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Cdd89

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If everyone in the world was prepared to stock up with provisions and then isolate for 3 weeks, with the only interactions being for life saving purposes whilst fully masked and protected, would Covid then vanish?

No, for all the reasons that have been discussed before (household transmission chains, asymptomatic transmission, animal reservoirs, international prevalence, some people are infectious for 28 days, surface transmission, etc).

This is a notable study:
Six of 12 men wintering at an isolated Antarctic base sequentially developed symptoms and signs of a common cold after 17 weeks of complete isolation. Examination of specimens taken from the men in relation to the outbreak has not revealed a causative agent.
 

Shrop

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No, for all the reasons that have been discussed before (household transmission chains, asymptomatic transmission, animal reservoirs, international prevalence, some people are infectious for 28 days, surface transmission, etc).

This is a notable study:
Interesting and thanks - I'll take a look when I get chance.
 

hst43102

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Couldn't agree more. If anything, these past two years have taught me one thing more than anything else. Life and freedom is such a precious thing. My biggest fear/regret is not that I catch COVID and end up seriously ill, but rather that I don't make the absolute most of the time I have here at the moment to enjoy life, have as many fulfilling experiences as possible, spend time with family and friends and travel the world, taking in as much culture and variety as I
can. The thing that angers me so much about our response to COVID is that the argument seems to be:

We must take away almost all quality of life from the entire population to increase the quantity of (the poor quality) life currently here by a much lesser amount.

This stems from our societal view that death is the worst possible outcome/factor in any decision-making, and everything, including ruining the experience of life itself, must be viewed as a lesser priority than the prevention of death, regardless of how marginal the difference/perceived gain in any situation would be (how many times have you heard 'even one is too many'?)

In theory, we could force everyone to eat 5 a day, do their 2 hours of vigorous activity a week, stick below 14 units of alcohol, give up smoking, isolate at the first sign of any illness no matter how mild, stay at home and not take part in any 'risky' activities, but do we? Of course not! As a species, the things we treasure most in life (making memories, being with family, enjoying new experiences, feeling the rush of adrenaline in a perceived 'risky' situation) are all associated with a certain level of risk. We have, through our very long history, managed to find a mostly effective balance which prioritises both our ability to enjoy a fulfilling, varied life (with a sensible level of risk associated with this) and our ability to live a long, healthy life due to advances in our understanding of health and science/technology.

This whole COVID response has been, in my opinion, one of the greatest overreactions in human history, fuelled by sensationalist media-reporting, the political climate we have created across the world, and the theoretical field of epidemiology being out of touch with the real world. At the beginning of the pandemic, I admittedly was generally supportive of the response, as I felt that it was my civil responsibility to do my bit to prevent what (at the time) was going to be a catastrophic level of mortality across the country. As time went on, and we learned more about the virus, it should have become clear that the initial lockdown was unnecessarily stringent. In an ideal world, politicians across the world would have sensibly addressed the public, using the latest evidence and data, to provide an insight into the true level of risk associated with this virus. Whilst the vaccine rollout was taking place, I can see the merit in imposing some (mild/moderate) population restrictions to ensure that spread is reasonably well contained whilst immunity is built up on a national level. At the stage we are now at, however, it is clear that the risks of removing all (and I mean all) restrictions (at least domestically) would be miniscule.

What we are now seeing is the impact of:

Politicians who care more about their own career and reputation than honesty and integrity. They are so afraid to admit that the initial response was too heavy-handed that they instead continue the narrative as it was before (this keeps their careers, reputations, and wages, secure)

A sensationalist media combined with a public who have been taught since birth that death is the worst possible outcome in any situation. As soon as death is mentioned in the media and there is an alternative provided to avoid this, it seems only natural that a significant number of people will demand this action is taken. This is just basic evolution.

Experts and Scientists who are finally, after waiting for years, able to apply their knowledge in the public eye, and are aiming to outdo each other and ensure their professional reputation isn't tarnished (hence the scary models (can you imagine being labelled as the 'scientist who stopped the lockdown and killed thousands') and heavy restrictions (Scientists by nature are biased towards their own field. Someone who specialises in preventing the spread of disease will always think up of the most effective way to do this (ie, preventing human contact). It is the job of politicians to balance this advice against the advice of experts across a wide range of fields to make proportionate and balance decisions, which I don't think many (if any) countries have managed to do in this pandemic).

I remain confident that the wider public is now realising that the level of government intervention is disproportionate to the threat posed by this particular situation. I can see we are nearing the end of this pandemic. I remain hopeful that brighter days lie ahead. I sincerely hope that we are able to take what we have learned in the past few years forward, and that any national response to a particular threat (of any kind) will now take into account the wider risks from all angles.

I am less confident that our society will start to view death as an aspect of life and something which. I believe that death should not be feared, but accepted to allow us to make the most of the time we have here.

I am not confident at all that our politicians will ever prioritise integrity above their own interests, but that’s just how it goes these days.

Rant over!
Bravo. That has to be one of the best posts I have seen on this subforum.
 

greyman42

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To put it another way, how many times in recent weeks have you been close to someone else, in a pub, restaurant, concert, football match, darts game (there are appalling scenes at televised matches),
I have not witnessed or experienced any appalling scenes at football matches so perhaps you can explain what these appalling scenes were?
 

DerekC

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However, while the vaccines do a stellar job, they cannot completely prevent infections and the only way to get absolutely optimal levels of immunity is to be exposed to the full virus, not just the spike protein.
Would you like to make clear that you are not advocating Covid parties to catch the virus?
 

Nicholas Lewis

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NHS England report 1751 admissions today (data date is 27/12 due to waiting for tests from people admitted over last 48hrs) with total hospitalised standing at 10462 up +916 on previous day which is less than +1072 reported yesterday. My crude analysis, as NHS only publish discharges at end of month, suggests 50% of admissions have a stay less than 24hrs and that's commensurate with the latest CO-SIN data that was uploaded to SAGE on 24/12 for December admissions. However, positive though this is, the level of staff absence from self isolation is eroding how many occupied beds individual trusts can support. So this still has the potential to lead to hospitals being unable to absorb patients needing treatment and it only takes one or two to get into that situation and have a film crew outside to spook Javid and BoJo into further action albeit the cases are seeded now for at least two weeks ahead.
 

43066

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Ah yes, here's a pointer to your views, it seems you don't think it's worth trying to contain it. Let me just say that I'm not here to argue, I'll just reiterate my earlier comment that I know a number of people who are in pain awaiting operations etc, but they keep getting their hospital places taken by people with Covid.

So because the NHS isn’t doing it’s job properly, we should all be changing the way we live out lives? Sorry but that isn’t feasible. The NHS is supposed to be there to protect us, not the other way around. + NHS waiting lists aren’t anything new - every flaming winter we are told it’s on the verge of collapse. :rolleyes:


Have I understood this correctly? If there is this inevitability, then is there any point in vaccinations or mask wearing? Is the only point to prevent the NHS from getting overwhelmed all in one go?

Of course it’s an inevitability that everyone is going to be exposed to an endemic virus - surely that’s so obvious as to go without saying? The point of vaccines is that they do a good job at reducing the risk of serious illness or death, especially in the case of the elderly and/or clinically vulnerable who are at greatest risk.

The high efficacy of vaccines is in stark contrast to many other measures we have taken over the last two years, which have little to no discernible benefit, and are largely theatre. Examples of such ineffective, theatrical measures would be non FFP masks, plastic screens in supermarkets, one way systems etc

Would you like to make clear that you are not advocating Covid parties to catch the virus?

What an odd question when the only person on the thread who has mentioned “Covid parties” is you.
 

duncanp

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NHS England report 1751 admissions today (data date is 27/12 due to waiting for tests from people admitted over last 48hrs) with total hospitalised standing at 10462 up +916 on previous day which is less than +1072 reported yesterday. My crude analysis, as NHS only publish discharges at end of month, suggests 50% of admissions have a stay less than 24hrs and that's commensurate with the latest CO-SIN data that was uploaded to SAGE on 24/12 for December admissions. However, positive though this is, the level of staff absence from self isolation is eroding how many occupied beds individual trusts can support. So this still has the potential to lead to hospitals being unable to absorb patients needing treatment and it only takes one or two to get into that situation and have a film crew outside to spook Javid and BoJo into further action albeit the cases are seeded now for at least two weeks ahead.

I think Boris Johnson may cut the self isolation period to 5 days early in the new year, despite what he has said today.

This is because it is the one measure that will have an immediate impact on staff availability in the NHS, thus easing pressure throughout the system.

Any new restrictions will take at least a couple of weeks before they affect infections, and then another couple of weeks until they affect hospitalisations, which is really too late.

The government is aware of the need to work out the average length of stay for hospital admissions. If your analysis is correct, then it should be the cases that hospitals, whilst busy, will not be "overwhelmed".

Even the Daily Mail has a headline

Number of English Covid patients ending up in hospital is now SEVEN TIMES lower than during devastating second wave as data shows Omicron now makes up 90% of new cases in EVERY region​


This figure, together with the average length of stay in hospital, will enable the government to predict the total number of patients in hospital over the next month or so, which will determine the level of pressure on the NHS, and whether any new restrictions are needed.

I have a feeling that Boris Johnson may issue updated guidance in the new year, without imposing any new legal restrictions.
 
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Shrop

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I have not witnessed or experienced any appalling scenes at football matches so perhaps you can explain what these appalling scenes were?
My use of the word "appalling" was in the context of breaching the 2 metre social distancing rule. Here are two scenes from 2021 on a very quick Google search.
Many of these people actually did pass Covid on to others before they realised that they had it themselves, which is why the Scottish Covid figures spiked soon after the match vs England, for example
1,300 Scotland fans who travelled to London later tested positive for Covid | Scotland | The Guardian



Cardiff-City.jpg

0_England-v-Denmark-UEFA-Euro-2020-Semi-Final-Wembley-Stadium.jpg
 

43066

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My use of the word "appalling" was in the context of breaching the 2 metre social distancing rule.

It isn’t a “rule”, how could it be? It’s guidance, which is completely unfeasible if everyday life is to continue as normal.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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I think Boris Johnson may cut the self isolation period to 5 days early in the new year, despite what he has said today.

This is because it is the one measure that will have an immediate impact on staff availability in the NHS, thus easing pressure throughout the system.

Any new restrictions will take at least a couple of weeks before they affect infections, and then another couple of weeks until they affect hospitalisations, which is really too late.

The government is aware of the need to work out the average length of stay for hospital admissions. If your analysis is correct, then it should be the cases that hospitals, whilst busy, will not be "overwhelmed".
Given the current rapidity of virus transmission there is potentially a scenario where readily available uninfected hosts will be naturally reducing before any changes to measures would have an influence now anyhow. Good or bad the die is cast here now and they know that so crossed fingers is all he can rely upon now.
 

Aaron1

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My use of the word "appalling" was in the context of breaching the 2 metre social distancing rule. Here are two scenes from 2021 on a very quick Google search.
Many of these people actually did pass Covid on to others before they realised that they had it themselves, which is why the Scottish Covid figures spiked soon after the match vs England, for example
1,300 Scotland fans who travelled to London later tested positive for Covid | Scotland | The Guardian



View attachment 107963

View attachment 107964
I assume you are aware that venues are allowed full capacity now and social distancing is effectively no longer strongly encouraged so i don't agree that it is "appalling" I have been to double figure football games since "freedom day" with varied attendances, I have also attended concerts and been in pubs and been on trains where mask wearing or social distancing were non existent (myself included in not wearing masks or social distancing) does that mean I find my behaviour and others behaviour appalling? No simply because we were advised these were no longer mandatory.
 

bramling

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Would you like to make clear that you are not advocating Covid parties to catch the virus?

I think the point being made is that being vaccinated is as good as things are realistically going to get. So once in that position attempting to dodge Covid is simply going to prolong the pandemic, but ultimately lead to the same outcome.

On that basis the only real argument for a strategy which dodges Covid (i.e. restrictions) is
(1) to buy time whilst awaiting a breakthrough - which we did whilst awaiting the vaccine, but what would buying time achieve now?
(2) for any groups for whom the vaccine is ineffective
(3) to avoid too many hospitalisations at any one time
and perhaps
(4) if there's a serious risk of too many essential workers being off work at the same time

All of the above would, of course, need to be seriously weighed up against the negative consequences of restrictions. Essentially all of the above are "buy time" reasons, none of them are long-term sustainable strategies.
 

Class 33

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I assume you are aware that venues are allowed full capacity now and social distancing is effectively no longer strongly encouraged so i don't agree that it is "appalling" I have been to double figure football games since "freedom day" with varied attendances, I have also attended concerts and been in pubs and been on trains where mask wearing or social distancing were non existent (myself included in not wearing masks or social distancing) does that mean I find my behaviour and others behaviour appalling? No simply because we were advised these were no longer mandatory.

Indeed. Social distancing(or social nuisancing as I call it) was finally scrapped over 5 months ago. And not before time too, should have been scrapped months and months before that! The vast vast majority of people have quite rightly moved on from this nonsense now.
 

Shrop

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I assume you are aware that venues are allowed full capacity now and social distancing is effectively no longer strongly encouraged so i don't agree that it is "appalling" I have been to double figure football games since "freedom day" with varied attendances, I have also attended concerts and been in pubs and been on trains where mask wearing or social distancing were non existent (myself included in not wearing masks or social distancing) does that mean I find my behaviour and others behaviour appalling? No simply because we were advised these were no longer mandatory.
Just my opinion. I enjoy the pleasures of life as much as anyone, but I enjoy them less if I think they may come at the expense of the health of someone else.
 

Yew

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Just my opinion. I enjoy the pleasures of life as much as anyone, but I enjoy them less if I think they may come at the expense of the health of someone else.
So are we supposed to completely change our way of life until all infectious diseases are eradicated?
 

Shrop

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Indeed. Social distancing(or social nuisancing as I call it) was finally scrapped over 5 months ago. And not before time too, should have been scrapped months and months before that! The vast vast majority of people have quite rightly moved on from this nonsense now.
To deliberately digress (perhaps I'd also like to move on from this nonsense ;)), should speed limits on roads be scrapped too? After all, almost every driver on the road exceeds them regularly, despite that fact that speeding kills many, many people every year.

I'll happily start a new thread on this if anyone is interested. As a starter for ten (aside from the point I've already just made), why should train drivers have to stick to speed limits under threat of disciplinary action or worse for even small transgressions (and they're closely monitored too), while car drivers can exceed them almost at will, with very little chance of being caught?

So are we supposed to completely change our way of life until all infectious diseases are eradicated?
I just suggested that people take care, wherever practical, not to breathe on other people. I didn't advocate changing your way of life. Unless of course your life involves breathing on people a lot?
 

Nicholas Lewis

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To deliberately digress (perhaps I'd also like to move on from this nonsense ;)), should speed limits on roads be scrapped too? After all, almost every driver on the road exceeds them regularly, despite that fact that speeding kills many, many people every year.

I'll happily start a new thread on this if anyone is interested. As a starter for ten (aside from the point I've already just made), why should train drivers have to stick to speed limits under threat of disciplinary action or worse for even small transgressions (and they're closely monitored too), while car drivers can exceed them almost at will, with very little chance of being caught?


I just suggested that people take care, wherever practical, not to breathe on other people. I didn't advocate changing your way of life. Unless of course your life involves breathing on people a lot?
Its theoretically possible to equip cars with a system that stops you from speeding by using GPS location linked to the nav systems in cars of <10 years old. Not sure that would go down well with people though.

Train driver monitoring is the result of the various accidents the industry had in the late 90's and the polar change to safety culture that came from that. Personally I would set a threshold and monitor for repeat offenders rather than odd minor transgressions as all it does is create a very cautionary behaviour which means schedules can't be achieved and they just get slackened off more.
 

Shrop

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Its theoretically possible to equip cars with a system that stops you from speeding by using GPS location linked to the nav systems in cars of <10 years old. Not sure that would go down well with people though.
Some people would see it as an infringement of their freedom, which others might interpret as an unreasonable freedom to break the law.
Train driver monitoring is the result of the various accidents the industry had in the late 90's and the polar change to safety culture that came from that. Personally I would set a threshold and monitor for repeat offenders rather than odd minor transgressions as all it does is create a very cautionary behaviour which means schedules can't be achieved and they just get slackened off more.
How many people have died as a result of accidents in the rail industry? Nothing like as many as the 2000 or so every single year on the roads, even pro rata for travel distances by mode. Minor speeding transgressions are (often justifiably) seen as ways to make money, or law enforcement ticking boxes for their quota of fines. The whole system needs a radical overhaul.

Would anyone be interested to see this as a new thread?
 

DustyBin

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To deliberately digress (perhaps I'd also like to move on from this nonsense ;)), should speed limits on roads be scrapped too? After all, almost every driver on the road exceeds them regularly, despite that fact that speeding kills many, many people every year.

I'll happily start a new thread on this if anyone is interested. As a starter for ten (aside from the point I've already just made), why should train drivers have to stick to speed limits under threat of disciplinary action or worse for even small transgressions (and they're closely monitored too), while car drivers can exceed them almost at will, with very little chance of being caught?

These things really aren’t comparable are they?

Most people prefer to have a little personal space when practicable; do you honestly think that normal people deliberately cough/sneeze/breathe on each other absent government advice to the contrary?

I just suggested that people take care, wherever practical, not to breathe on other people. I didn't advocate changing your way of life. Unless of course your life involves breathing on people a lot?

What do you mean by “breathe on other people”? As above I don’t believe many people do this as a matter of course, it’s not really socially acceptable. If what you actually mean is breathe the same air as other people, I have some bad news for you……
 

Lampshade

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My use of the word "appalling" was in the context of breaching the 2 metre social distancing rule. Here are two scenes from 2021 on a very quick Google search.
Many of these people actually did pass Covid on to others before they realised that they had it themselves, which is why the Scottish Covid figures spiked soon after the match vs England, for example
1,300 Scotland fans who travelled to London later tested positive for Covid | Scotland | The Guardian



View attachment 107963

View attachment 107964
1. You either needed to be fully vaccinated or show a negative test to get in.
2. The second picture is photoshopped.
 

yorksrob

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I disagree

The NHS website explicitly says people should not be using LFT if they have symptoms
If you have symptoms of COVID-19, you need a different test called a PCR test

So in the early stages a lateral flow test will pick out your affliction.

But as soon as you show a symptom, the LFT becomes completely useless ?

This sounds like claptrap to me I'm afraid.
 

TPO

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The OH has omicron symptoms and is currently unable to get a PCR test (either home delivery or walk in).

She works in a face to face role within justice, She has been told to stay off work until she has a PCR result back which will no doubt be a little wait when she eventually can get one. Luckily her employer (the Civil Service) are fairly laid back and she'll get full pay to sit at home and wait (albeit she's a bit off colour). I really feel for those who don't get sick pay or those self employed who are stuck in this testing loop.
I suspect that many self employed or those without sick lay will decide "it's just a cold, no need to test" and crack on.

TPO
 

21C101

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I suspect that many self employed or those without sick lay will decide "it's just a cold, no need to test" and crack on.

TPO
Given that the NHS website still says the following, I don't think it at all unreasonable for them to do so:

The main symptoms of coronavirus (COVID-19) are:
  • a high temperature – this means you feel hot to touch on your chest or back (you do not need to measure your temperature)
  • a new, continuous cough – this means coughing a lot for more than an hour, or 3 or more coughing episodes in 24 hours (if you usually have a cough, it may be worse than usual)
  • a loss or change to your sense of smell or taste – this means you've noticed you cannot smell or taste anything, or things smell or taste different to normal

 

johnnychips

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So in the early stages a lateral flow test will pick out your affliction.

But as soon as you show a symptom, the LFT becomes completely useless ?

This sounds like claptrap to me I'm afraid.
I don’t think @jumble meant it quite like that. If you have symptoms, you should get a PCR, but I don’t see any harm in taking a LFT first to confirm or question your suspicions.

At the moment the ‘official’ symptoms are still fever; a continuous cough; loss of senses. However, many omicron covid cases have not reported these, but in fact sore throat, runny nose and sneezing. So a lot of people I know are taking LFTs if they can get them to see if their ‘cold’ is in fact COVID.

This happened to me. I did an LFT test on Thursday before visiting an old auntie and it was negative; I had a runny nose and a bit of a cough over Xmas, so I thought I’d do an LFT when I could get one, and it was positive although I feel fine.

I think if the government changed the symptoms of when to take a PCR test to what they actually are for omicron, they would be overwhelmed, which is why I suspect they haven’t.

edit: @21C101 I think our posts overlapped, though effectively made the same point.
 
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Kite159

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I suspect that many self employed or those without sick lay will decide "it's just a cold, no need to test" and crack on.

TPO

Agreed, as knowing if they test and get a positive result will mean 7 days isolating and a week's lost wages.


----------


As for restrictions for next year, I live in hope that nothing major changes but fear another soul destroying lockdown.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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I think if the government changed the symptoms of when to take a PCR test to what they actually are for omicron, they would be overwhelmed, which is why I suspect they haven’t.
Seeing as getting LFT kits or booking a PCR test is becoming a struggle I would suggest the system is already overwhelmed. I guess it will limit records continuing to broken daily.
 
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