Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Simon11]

Great to see that the numbers of people being admitted to hospital in London with covid has been reducing over the last two days (first graph). On 31st December, only 319 patients admitted, which is below the 400 threshold the NHS consider manageable.

Still slight increases in overall numbers of patients (second graph) however it does look positive!

 

[NorthKent1989]

I have not been asked for my vaccine passport for anything yet.

They’re mainly for large events like gigs and clubs for the moment.

Those days are behind me, but what else would i be asked to produce it for in "normal life"?

Well I’m France you need it for shops, pubs, bars, restaurants etc, and in Quebec you even need them to get access for transportation, so you can see why people over here are wary of them

 

[duncanp]

Great to see that the numbers of people being admitted to hospital in London with covid has been reducing over the last two days (first graph). On 31st December, only 319 patients admitted, which is below the 400 threshold the NHS consider manageable.

Still slight increases in overall numbers of patients (second graph) however it does look positive!


View attachment 108147



View attachment 108148

Yes, it is worth noting that, whilst 319 patients were admitted to hospital in London on 31st December, the number of patients in hospital at 08:00 on 1st January (3,666) is only 30 higher than the number of patients in hospital at 08:00 on 31st December.

The conclusion is that 289 patients must have been discharged from hospital on 31st December.

Eventually, the discharges on a given day will exceed the admissions on a given day, and the number of patients in hospital will fall.

The daily increase in patients in hospital in London has never exceeded 384 (on 28th December), but I think it is a bit too early to see whether this is part of a long term trend, as admissions and discharges are disrupted over Christmas and the New Year.

Indeed I read somewhere today that part of the problem is that there are quite a number of patients who are ready to be discharged, but can't be because there is nowhere to send them (such as to a care home, or supported living accommodation, or to their own home with appropriate care and support)

So all in all, the data is encouraging, and I just hope that the government realises this and can hold its nerver for the next couple of weeks until a long term downward trend in all the appropriate metrics is established.

 

[MikeWM]

Those days are behind me, but what else would i be asked to produce it for in "normal life"?

The Prince Charles cinema in London is now requiring them for entry. Rather a shame - it was previously one of my favourite cinemas, but they've been resolutely on the 'panicy' side of this debate, and never stopped requiring masks, for example.

I'm actually a life member - I need to get around to writing them a stiff protest letter and return my membership card. I categorically refuse to support anywhere that implements this where it isn't legally required.

For now, fortunately, they are an outlier.

 

[43066]

If you look at the quote from 43066, "evil" was certainly mentioned. And yes, things in China might not be going well, but then they might argue that our death and rate is massively worse than theirs is ...

That’s a strawman. I didn’t say everyone in China is evil, I said China is an evil dictatorship.

China is a country which executes more people than the rest of the world combined, with organs of executed criminals sold off on the black market. China has an appalling human rights record, and a recent habit of putting ethnic and religious minorities into concentration camps. Their approach to Covid has, true to form, been one of complete and utter totalitarianism and extremism. Including forcibly mass testing and effectively moving Covid positive individuals into what are effectively internment camps!

Clearly the measures adopted in the U.K. aren’t anywhere near on this level, jr we have perhaps moved further towards that kind of approach than any of us would have thought possible in 2019. Perhaps you aren’t someone who thinks deeply about these things, or simply aren’t bothered, but I can assure you many others are. If we have to make a choice I’d much rather see a higher number of covid deaths than see our freedoms and way of life, which many people have laid down their lives for, being dismantled by those with an agenda, using Covid as a convenient excuse.

Oh believe me I do, I just think that some people play on them a bit

Which people and why? Is that based on any evidence or personal experience?

I think you're absolutely right, but they would probably still be correct if they said our death rate is worse than theirs.

You can’t trust a thing the Chinese government say (just ask Hong Kong democracy activists), so that’s a bit like saying “at least Mussolini made the trains run on time”. At some point the ends simply don’t justify the means.

Minimising deaths from one particular cause, regardless of the cost or ineffectiveness of many strategies employed, has always been a morally bankrupt strategy when we still don’t even know whether the true cost of restrictions in terms of late diagnosed cancers and other untreated illnesses will be greater than the numbers saved.

 

[21C101]

Thanks for this, it confirms more or less what I'd already heard about their methods. It does make one wonder though, about people in the UK who complain about mental health concerns due to lockdowns - compared to China a lot of Brits just don't know when they're well off.

I expect to get slated by some for this comment, but when you know people who work in hospitals and what they have to go through to protect (and save) others, and you also hear people complaining about how stressful it is for them to wear a facemask, it does make me think of this ...

View attachment 108099
(Image shows person in scrubs, scrub gown, plastic apron, ffp3 mask, visor, hood and 2 pairs of gloves, and says people should stop moaning about only having to wear a mask to the shops)
(and yes, I know there are some with genuine reasons not to etc.)

I wear top to toe orange with hard hat, goggles and gloves if out on the track. I am paid to do. As are surgeons (rather well).

If someone insisted I had to do so to get my local shopping I would not be happy.

 

[Jamiescott1]

They’re mainly for large events like gigs and clubs for the moment.




Well I’m France you need it for shops, pubs, bars, restaurants etc, and in Quebec you even need them to get access for transportation, so you can see why people over here are wary of them

Its canada wide you need them for ships, trains and boats. No need for them on other transport in quebec.
You do need them in shopping centre food courts and have the strange situation of food courts in shopping centres being roped off and having to enter through a gap in the rope which is manned by a security guard

 

[D1537]

Isolation if you have no symptoms needs to end, being off work when you’re perfectly healthy is pure nonsensical.

If you've got COVID you're not perfectly healthy. Fairly obviously.

 

[43066]

If you've got COVID you're not perfectly healthy. Fairly obviously.

If you’ve got minor cold like symptoms you don’t need to be off work. Fairly obviously.

 

[takno]

If you've got COVID you're not perfectly healthy. Fairly obviously.

Why not? Most people have a bunch of bacteria and viruses kicking around then that aren't doing them any significant harm. Just having a virus doesn't make you unhealthy if it's having no ill effects

 

[43066]

Ultimately we need to move to a situation whereby unless you’re actually ill (mild symptoms therefore don’t count!) you are expected to carry on largely as normal. Obviously if you have symptoms you may choose to avoid visiting elderly relatives for example, but you should do that with any illness.

I appreciate that sounds unthinkable to some people but I can’t see any alternative in the long(er) term.

Absolutely. And until that point arrives we will continue to see many industries, including the railway, being unable to function properly due to daft levels of sickness absence.

 

[greyman42]

They’re mainly for large events like gigs and clubs for the moment.




Well I’m France you need it for shops, pubs, bars, restaurants etc, and in Quebec you even need them to get access for transportation, so you can see why people over here are wary of them

So it is fair to say that they have not been introduced in the UK.

 

[D1537]

If you’ve got minor cold like symptoms you don’t need to be off work. Fairly obviously.

Why not? Most people have a bunch of bacteria and viruses kicking around then that aren't doing them any significant harm. Just having a virus doesn't make you unhealthy if it's having no ill effects

If you two think that you should go to work (or even out of the house) when COVID positive because *you* don't feel unwell I don't know what to say.

It's one of the most half-witted things I've ever seen. Even the complete tinfoil-hatted anti-vaxxers don't go that far.

 

[Lampshade]

I have not been asked for my vaccine passport for anything yet.

Me neither, went to the theatre on Boxing Day and wasn’t asked, I even offered.

 

[NorthKent1989]

So it is fair to say that they have not been introduced in the UK.

They have, that’s what Plan B is about, larger venues already require them

 

[Berliner]

If you've got COVID you're not perfectly healthy. Fairly obviously.

It would depend on your definition of healthy.

Many people receive terminal diagnoses of various cancers, for example, but then go on to live much longer than they were expected to, and indeed some live full, active lives and only start to slow down in their very final weeks in some cases. I Would class them as healthy, personally, until they start to succumb to what's happening inside anyway. The same could be said for many, many illnesses or conditions. I have a long-term issue for which I have had surgery, I am still living a perfectly healthy, active, life even though I take medication and require annual hospital checkups.

If you two think that you should go to work (or even out of the house) when COVID positive because *you* don't feel unwell I don't know what to say.

It's one of the most half-witted things I've ever seen. Even the complete tinfoil-hatted anti-vaxxers don't go that far.

This is the problem though and, with all due respect, mindsets such as this mean we will literally never get away from the current state of affairs. Not being ill should mean you go about your life. Only if you are sick enough to actually need rest should you be off work. this is how society functioned up until March 2020 and now it's seen as the most bizarre thing ever. This is why I hope covid is normalised and treated like any other disease/virus etc. Only those who genuinely cannot work should be off sick. Why on earth is covid any different, especially now it's become nothing more than a cold for the overwhelming majority, we have the treatments and the population is massively vaccinated against it? Just what are the criteria for genuinely living with covid and moving on from this silliness we've seen over the last 2 years? When will we just accept it' here and we simply can not stop the spread? Some people are still acting like a covid positive person is an instant death sentence for everyone they come within 2m of.

 

[yorkie]

If you two think that you should go to work (or even out of the house) when COVID positive because *you* don't feel unwell I don't know what to say.

It's one of the most half-witted things I've ever seen. Even the complete tinfoil-hatted anti-vaxxers don't go that far.

We are going to reach a stage where people no longer need to isolate, and asymptomatic people are not routinely tested, in the coming months.

If you've got COVID you're not perfectly healthy. Fairly obviously.

I must get exposed to, and fight off viruses regularly; am I not healthy?

 

[21C101]

At risk of being controversial, at this time of year it must be particularly tempting for people to claim to have failed a lateral flow test and consequently have several days off work until receiving a negative PCR.

 

[MikeWM]

So it is fair to say that they have not been introduced in the UK.

Clearly they have, because as I mentioned above there is a cinema in London that I attended regularly pre-2020 and am a life member of, that I now can't go to without presenting proof of covid-status.

Indeed in Wales and Northern Ireland it is a legal requirement to do so for cinemas and theatres.

Yes, they aren't as widely rolled-out here as in many places, thank goodness, but they certainly exist, in some cases are legally required, and in some cases venues are taking it upon themselves to require them.

 

[philosopher]

If you two think that you should go to work (or even out of the house) when COVID positive because *you* don't feel unwell I don't know what to say.

It's one of the most half-witted things I've ever seen. Even the complete tinfoil-hatted anti-vaxxers don't go that far.

At some point Covid should just be treated like a cold, as for the vast majority of people who have been vaccinated, Covid is in effect just a cold. If you have cold like symptons, people should not be encouraged to take a test, except perhaps if they are vulnerable. If you can work from home and have cold like symptoms, then you should work from home. However if you have to be on site for work, and your symptoms are very mild then I think people should continue to go to work as the social disruption from too many sick days would outweigh any benefits from reduced virus transmission.

However, I don’t think we are quite at this point yet, though perhaps we will be there by the summer. Until it is clear that Covid has reached endemic equilibrium, those with symptoms should continue to be tested and stay away from work if positive.

 

[D1537]

Right, I'm off out of this thread and back to the trains. Having been on the railway scene for 40 years or more I was aware that there are plenty of enthusiasts with "unconventional" views, but I wasn't aware that those included a wish to actively infect other people with a disease that could actually be pretty serious for them. I thought we'd reached a new low with those people who tried to stop the lifeboat launching in Sussex because it was going to help refugees. Clearly, I was wrong.

 

[Dent]

Right, I'm off out of this thread and back to the trains. Having been on the railway scene for 40 years or more I was aware that there are plenty of enthusiasts with "unconventional" views, but I wasn't aware that those included a wish to actively infect other people with a disease that could actually be pretty serious for them. I thought we'd reached a new low with those people who tried to stop the lifeboat launching in Sussex because it was going to help refugees. Clearly, I was wrong.

Where did anyone say that they had "a wish to actively infect other people with a disease that could actually be pretty serious for them"?

 

[43066]

If you two think that you should go to work (or even out of the house) when COVID positive because *you* don't feel unwell I don't know what to say.

It's one of the most half-witted things I've ever seen. Even the complete tinfoil-hatted anti-vaxxers don't go that far.

It’s easy enough to avoid that scenario if you simply don’t take a test.

What’s half witted is imagining it’s still sensible to isolate people, paralysing the healthcare and transport sectors (amongst others), in order to reduce the spread of a mild disease against which the vast majority of the population are vaccinated.

 

[Berliner]

Right, I'm off out of this thread and back to the trains. Having been on the railway scene for 40 years or more I was aware that there are plenty of enthusiasts with "unconventional" views, but I wasn't aware that those included a wish to actively infect other people with a disease that could actually be pretty serious for them. I thought we'd reached a new low with those people who tried to stop the lifeboat launching in Sussex because it was going to help refugees. Clearly, I was wrong.

But when does it end? For how long do we try and stop the spread? Why is covid any different from any other virus/infection out there that causes very little suffering for most and possibly death for a tiny few? If anything covid is now the most researched, most funded, and most likely to be cured infection out there as so much attention has been given to it and so many very effective vaccines and treatments are available, helping to protect us and helping those who get it. Is a virus which even at its worst, when we knew nothing about it, had an extremely low mortality rate, really deserving of all of this? Especially now, 2 years on, when we have so much to combat it with?

 

[yorkie]

Right, I'm off out of this thread and back to the trains. Having been on the railway scene for 40 years or more I was aware that there are plenty of enthusiasts with "unconventional" views, but I wasn't aware that those included a wish to actively infect other people with a disease that could actually be pretty serious for them. I thought we'd reached a new low with those people who tried to stop the lifeboat launching in Sussex because it was going to help refugees. Clearly, I was wrong.

Is it really unconventional to say that we are heading for endemic equilibrium?

Is your argument that Sars-Cov-2 can be eliminated or is your argument that we should always treat it is as a virus to avoid and be in a perpetual state of controls to avoid catching the virus and aim never to reach a natural state of equilibrium?

But when does it end?

This is the question which those who seek to impose controls seem to want to avoid answering.

In effect there are 3 potential outcomes / exit strategies:
1) Elimination - this was perhaps possible with the original 'wildtype' virus, but became very difficult once the D614G mutation made it spread more easily in Europe; Delta made it impossible and Omicron was the final nail in the Zero Covid coffin.
2) Perpetual controls - An acceptance it will always be endemic but that we can reduce the number of infections by constantly imposing restrictions and control methods, so that we never reach a natural level of equilibrium
3) Endemic equilibrium - Reach a state where the virus naturally rises in prevalence each autumn/winter season and then naturally reduces. This is the state we have reached with the 4 pre-existing HCoVs; Sars-CoV-2 would become the 5th.

 

[yorksrob]

Right, I'm off out of this thread and back to the trains. Having been on the railway scene for 40 years or more I was aware that there are plenty of enthusiasts with "unconventional" views, but I wasn't aware that those included a wish to actively infect other people with a disease that could actually be pretty serious for them. I thought we'd reached a new low with those people who tried to stop the lifeboat launching in Sussex because it was going to help refugees. Clearly, I was wrong.

Out of interest, how do you think all the other pandemics in human history have ended ?

There is always a time when society gets back to normal.

 

[bramling]

If you two think that you should go to work (or even out of the house) when COVID positive because *you* don't feel unwell I don't know what to say.

It's one of the most half-witted things I've ever seen. Even the complete tinfoil-hatted anti-vaxxers don't go that far.

I’d say there’s two issues here.

Firstly in reality not everyone is isolating at home, indeed it wouldn’t surprise me to find a majority aren’t. So it’s quite probable that someone who isn’t going round infecting others in one setting (work) will simply be doing it in others instead.

Secondly with the number of cases now in circulation I’m not sure this is going to make much difference in practice anyway. There’s plenty of Omicron about, and there’s little we can do about that reality.

On top of that there’s the issue that the current setup is an open invitation for people to pull a fast one - it’s very easy to allege symptoms / positive LFT and then have time off work awaiting a PCR which turns out to be negative. Plenty of examples of this at my place.

I don’t have a perfect solution to all this because there isn’t one, however if Omicron is as mild as it’s said to be, and with anyone wanting a full course of vaccine now having had one, I’d say we should certainly be giving serious consideration at least to not having people isolate. Perhaps now is too early, but there’s going to come a time when it’s the only viable option. Or else the whole test/isolate system is going to have to be made much more robust - to prevent it being a source of free leave at times of year when many people would prefer not to be at work.

 

[43066]

We are going to reach a stage where people no longer need to isolate, and asymptomatic people are not routinely tested, in the coming months.

We must now be close to (if not already beyond) the point where isolation of NHS staff is of greater disbenefit than slightly increased numbers of Covid patients who might result from abandoning mass testing and isolation of asymptomatic individuals altogether.

 

[Simon11]

I’d say there’s two issues here.

Firstly in reality not everyone is isolating at home, indeed it wouldn’t surprise me to find a majority aren’t. So it’s quite probable that someone who isn’t going round infecting others in one setting (work) will simply be doing it in others instead.

Secondly with the number of cases now in circulation I’m not sure this is going to make much difference in practice anyway. There’s plenty of Omicron about, and there’s little we can do about that reality.

On top of that there’s the issue that the current setup is an open invitation for people to pull a fast one - it’s very easy to allege symptoms / positive LFT and then have time off work awaiting a PCR which turns out to be negative. Plenty of examples of this at my place.

I don’t have a perfect solution to all this because there isn’t one, however if Omicron is as mild as it’s said to be, and with anyone wanting a full course of vaccine now having had one, I’d say we should certainly be giving serious consideration at least to not having people isolate. Perhaps now is too early, but there’s going to come a time when it’s the only viable option. Or else the whole test/isolate system is going to have to be made much more robust - to prevent it being a source of free leave at times of year when many people would prefer not to be at work.

Plus there are likely to be hundred of thousands in the Uk who have covid and are showing no symptoms as they go about their daily business.

Covid is here to stay and testing/ isolating has to stop now that covid is now mild plus huge benefits of vaccines and treatments now available.

 

[seagull]

I know several people who are isolating at home and therefore not at work. Not a single one meets the criteria that would have seen them staying at home before Covid - they are not ill. At worst some minor snuffles.