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Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

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brad465

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I can't believe this had to be said, but I'm glad it's not only been said, but by Prof Andrew Pollard, who helped make the AZ vaccine; we cannot jab the world ever 4-6 months as it's unaffordable and unsustainable:


It is not affordable or sustainable to keep vaccinating everyone against Covid-19 on the planet regularly, a UK vaccine scientist says.
Prof Sir Andrew Pollard, who helped develop the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, says the most at risk should be identified and prioritised instead.
He said the vaccine rollout had gone "extremely well" in the UK but was "falling way behind" globally.
Booster jabs have been offered to all eligible adults in the UK.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said the country is in a much better position than this time last year because of vaccinations - but there would be considerable pressure on hospitals in coming weeks due to the spread of the Omicron variant.

Prof Pollard's comments come after Israel said it was planning to give fourth doses of the Covid vaccine to over-60s.
"It really is not affordable, sustainable or probably even needed to vaccinate everyone on the planet every four to six months," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
"We haven't even managed to vaccinate everyone in Africa with one dose so we're certainly not going to get to a point where fourth doses for everyone is manageable."
There is not "full certainty" on whether another booster might be needed in the UK, he added.
"We may well need to have boosters for the vulnerable in the population but I think it's highly unlikely that we'll have programmes going forwards regularly of boosting everyone over the age of 12," he said.
"But identifying those who remain at risk, despite having now had three doses, is critical so they can be protected - either through vaccination or improved treatments over the course of the years ahead."
For people who are clinically vulnerable to Covid, a third dose of a vaccine is considered their full course - with a fourth jab being given as their booster.
 
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Horizon22

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The BBC has a positive spin on things - suggesting that hospitalisations for/with Covid are different, ICU rates have barely changed and that really the only issue is staff absence due to the higher infection rates of Omicron


It even ends with this:

Even then the argument in favour of tougher action was unclear as infections and hospitalisations would rebound once restrictions were lifted.
Largely all it would have achieved is delaying and spreading out illness.
That may have helped the NHS, but would have had to be balanced against wider costs of restrictions to society, the economy and mental health from another lockdown.
What does seem likely is the wave will come and go pretty quickly - even in other parts of the UK the restrictions in place are expected to only have a limited impact.
And once it does, experts believe the extra immunity acquired will mean the population will be even better protected for the future.
 

Simon11

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I can't believe this had to be said, but I'm glad it's not only been said, but by Prof Andrew Pollard, who helped make the AZ vaccine; we cannot jab the world ever 4-6 months as it's unaffordable and unsustainable:



Good to see Andrew coming out with this view, however I am slightly confused by this sentence which appears to contradict himself?
He said the vaccine rollout had gone "extremely well" in the UK but was "falling way behind" globally.

What are we falling way behind on? We have done well with vaccines take-up? His whole article is about there not being a huge need to have everyone jabbed every 6 months, but then states we are falling behind on jabbing?

We have either done very well with giving out vaccines, or we haven't?

The BBC has a positive spin on things - suggesting that hospitalisations for/with Covid are different, ICU rates have barely changed and that really the only issue is staff absence due to the higher infection rates of Omicron


It even ends with this:

Maybe now is the time to embarrassed the BBC with their poor and scare mongering articles back in early December!
 

Domh245

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We have either done very well with giving out vaccines, or we haven't?

The sentence reads better with a comma:

He said the vaccine rollout had gone "extremely well" in the UK, but was "falling way behind" globally.

ie, globally the vaccine rollout has been lacking. See the many other criticisms around not getting enough people in less developed countries vaccinated (and the counter-arguments that the issues are much deeper than a lack of vials of vaccine being sent to those countries!)
 

NorthOxonian

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The BBC has a positive spin on things - suggesting that hospitalisations for/with Covid are different, ICU rates have barely changed and that really the only issue is staff absence due to the higher infection rates of Omicron


It even ends with this:
Not at all surprised to see that Nick Triggle is the author - he has written a lot of good stuff.
 

Simon11

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The sentence reads better with a comma:



ie, globally the vaccine rollout has been lacking. See the many other criticisms around not getting enough people in less developed countries vaccinated (and the counter-arguments that the issues are much deeper than a lack of vials of vaccine being sent to those countries!)
Ahh, that makes sense!
 

kristiang85

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The ventilator bed data is looking good in London, especially when compared to this time last year.

Also we are in traditional 'peak' coronavirus territory, based on the history of the other coronaviruses in circulation, so I would expect a decline to gather pace very soon (as in 2021).
 

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duncanp

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The BBC has a positive spin on things - suggesting that hospitalisations for/with Covid are different, ICU rates have barely changed and that really the only issue is staff absence due to the higher infection rates of Omicron


It even ends with this:

"...Even in the other parts of the UK, the restrictions in place are expected to only have a limited impact...."

Are you listening, Nicola Sturgeon, Mark Drakeford, and whoever is in charge of Northern Ireland?

Even Professor Pantsdown thinks that cases in the UK will start to fall in the next few weeks, as they already are in London. (and they also appear to be doing so in Birmingham as well, although delays in reporting test results over the holidays means that the long term trend is still not clear)

The Telegraph is reporting that a government minister (the vaccines minister, Maggie Throup) has said that "Plan B is working", which bodes well for not having any further restrictions in England at the moment.

And a "multivariant" COVID vaccine shows quite promising results in early clinical trials.

This is important in case a new variant comes along in the future, like that one from the South of France that has 46 mutations.

So all in all, the news is fairly positive at the moment, although you would never realise it from reading the newspapers.

Multivariant Covid-19 vaccine booster shows promise, early trial data suggests​

A Covid vaccine booster aimed at tackling multiple variants shows promise in inducing a comprehensive immune response, early data suggests.
The first results of a phase one trial, launched in Manchester in September 2021, reveal the jab has strong levels of neutralising antibodies.
They are similar to approved mRNA vaccines (like Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna), but at up to a 10-fold lower dose in the first 10 individuals, the research indicates.
According to the data the vaccine was generally safe and well-tolerated.
The jab is being trialled with the anticipated involvement of 20 people aged 60 and over, who were in good health and previously received two doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab.
The findings are published by US-based biotechnology company Gritstone bio, Inc. in collaboration with the University of Manchester and Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust.
 

martin2345uk

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My boyfriend had covid over new year and basically had a moderate cold. I would support moving it into a more flu like category with annual vaccinations for at risk people but letting the rest of the population just get on with it.
 

duncanp

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My boyfriend had covid over new year and basically had a moderate cold. I would support moving it into a more flu like category with annual vaccinations for at risk people but letting the rest of the population just get on with it.

Treating COVID like we treated flu before March 2020 is the only sustainable strategy for the long term.

As you say, annual vaccinations for the most vulnerable groups should be provided free on the NHS, and other people should be able to have them done privately at a reasonable cost, or perhaps their employers would be willing to pay.

But above all we need to have an honest conversation about the future of the NHS, in terms of what services can be provided for free, and how do we increase capacity to cope with the usual winter pressures, or another similar pandemic in the future. There is no one easy answer, and everyone will have different opinions.

Take the example as reported today in some papers that the age at which people are eligible for free prescriptions in England is going to be raised to the state pension age (66) from April this year, which means that some people who currently get them for free will have to start paying. Reducing eligibility for free prescriptions will, however, bring in extra money for the NHS, and people have to ask themselves where do they think the extra money to pay for improvements to the NHS that we all want to see is going to come from.
 

Domh245

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The Telegraph is reporting that a government minister (the vaccines minister, Maggie Throup) has said that "Plan B is working", which bodes well for not having any further restrictions in England at the moment.

It bodes well for no additional restrictions being imposed, sure, but I'd quite like to see the evidence that additional (but not universal) face coverings, a request to "Work from home if you can", and covid-passes are behind the 'good' trajectory we're seeing, rather than this just being the natural way things would play out! I'd quite like in future for any other NPIs they bring in to be actually grounded in science rather than feels.
 

duncanp

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It bodes well for no additional restrictions being imposed, sure, but I'd quite like to see the evidence that additional (but not universal) face coverings, a request to "Work from home if you can", and covid-passes are behind the 'good' trajectory we're seeing, rather than this just being the natural way things would play out! I'd quite like in future for any other NPIs they bring in to be actually grounded in science rather than feels.

I think there is more chance of you winning the lottery than seeing any "evidence" that face coverings, work from home and vaccine passports are behind the current trajectory of cases.

You have only got to compare England with Scotland and Wales to see that the additional measures in Scotland and Wales have made very little difference to the spread of the Omicron variant.
 

westv

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My boyfriend had covid over new year and basically had a moderate cold. I would support moving it into a more flu like category with annual vaccinations for at risk people but letting the rest of the population just get on with it.
I wonder who would be classed as "at risk".
 

brad465

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There's a Press Conference planned this afternoon with the classic trio of Johnson, Whitty and Vallance. What for isn't clear, but No.10 has said today as well that there's no data to suggest the need for further restrictions.
 

takno

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It bodes well for no additional restrictions being imposed, sure, but I'd quite like to see the evidence that additional (but not universal) face coverings, a request to "Work from home if you can", and covid-passes are behind the 'good' trajectory we're seeing, rather than this just being the natural way things would play out! I'd quite like in future for any other NPIs they bring in to be actually grounded in science rather than feels.
Annoyingly yesterday the schools minister was mentioning, but not citing, a mysterious study of 123 schools where the masks "had made a difference to transmission" (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59854920), and Boris was back to mentioning the imaginary "growing weight of scientific evidence" in support of them.

It's perhaps necessary to mandate the use of real science, rather than science which only exists in either ministerial imaginations, or is invented by leaders of Health Security Agencies in the course of phone calls with ministers.
 

Dent

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There's a Press Conference planned this afternoon with the classic trio of Johnson, Whitty and Vallance. What for isn't clear, but No.10 has said today as well that there's no data to suggest the need for further restrictions.

When is the mid-pont review of Plan B due?
 

kristiang85

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It bodes well for no additional restrictions being imposed, sure, but I'd quite like to see the evidence that additional (but not universal) face coverings, a request to "Work from home if you can", and covid-passes are behind the 'good' trajectory we're seeing, rather than this just being the natural way things would play out! I'd quite like in future for any other NPIs they bring in to be actually grounded in science rather than feels.

Well, if you look at how the pre-SARS-COV-2 coronaviruses have circulated, then beginning of January is when you expect them to fall. So I'm very much in the camp that restrictions make no difference.
 

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duncanp

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The Telegraph is laying into the modellers, and about time too.

This article shows how Professor Pantsdown and the team at Imperious College got it seriously wrong.

They (Imperious College) said that, without additional restrictions beyond Plan B, there would be 3,000 deaths per day, even in the best case scenario.

The most recent figure for UK deaths, on 30th December, was, er 118.

Excuse me whilst I go out a buy a chocolate teapot, as this would be of more use than one of Professor Pantsdown's "models".


Modellers are heading for a showdown​

To make models actually useful for guiding policy the modellers urgently need to include economists or other experts in behaviour

he number of omicron cases generated over the Christmas period is enormous by any standards. On December 29th, some 220 thousand people tested positive for covid across the UK – a record figure by some considerable margin. Given the lags between people becoming infected and testing positive, the vast majority of those infections were probably acquired between Christmas Eve and Boxing Day. Furthermore, a large number of those infections were amongst the elderly. The number of cases in England amongst those over 65 was more than 17 times as high on December 29th as it was on December 5th, just over three weeks earlier.

The latter part of December also saw an increase in the number of people hospitalised, as the rapid growth in cases over the earlier part of the month eventually translated into additional hospital admissions. On December 29th there were 2,370 people in England admitted with covid. Given that those admitted at that point were infected a week or more earlier and the large increase in case numbers over the intervening period, we should expect hospitalisations to increase much further. Indeed, it is possible that, over the next week or two, daily admissions could reach or exceed their January 2021 peak of 4,134.


This will of course create pressure for the NHS. But it should be less than last year (and we should note that, even then, although the NHS came under pressure it was not swamped to the extent of being unable to treat covid patients at all – as happened, for example, in Delhi in April/May 2021). There are several reasons why pressures should be less. First, although daily admissions have accelerated, the number of people in hospital is still far below January 2020 levels – currently 14,210 compared with 34,336 at last January’s peak (or indeed about 25,000 precisely a year ago). According to the South African data, stays of omicron patients in hospital tend to be shorter and those hospitalised with omicron require oxygen far less often. So the challenges of managing patients are much less. And as yet, although numbers hospitalized have risen, there has been no corresponding rise in numbers requiring mechanical ventilation.

The widespread view is that, although the NHS may yet come under pressure, it should be able to cope. Could matters deteriorate to change that? It is possible that with people being less cautious now that Christmas is out of the way, and with the return to work and school, overall case numbers start to grow again (having plateaued in the latter part of December, especially in London). However, that may not translate into much further growth in hospital admissions unless there is material further growth in cases amongst older people. It seems likely that the peak in infections amongst older people has already passed with the high intergenerational mixing at Christmas, so even if we are short, still, of the overall peak in cases it is quite likely that the peak in cases generating hospitalisations has already now passed.

If that is right, it is something of an embarrassment for the modelling teams. Imperial, in particular, was widely reported in mid-December as warning that, without additional restrictions, even in the best-case scenario there would be 3,000 deaths per day. The recent peak, on December 28th, was 119. That may rise a bit with additional hospitalisations, but it currently seems very unlikely to reach even 500 per day let alone a best case of 3,000.

Modelling is hard, especially for something as fast-moving as omicron. But there are some important lessons for modellers to learn here. It has become clear that models do not anticipate behavioural changes. Indeed, even seasonally-driven behaviours around Christmas were not well-reflected in the most recent batch of models, let alone automatic (non-restrictions-driven) behaviour changes in response to the spread of the virus. Models that do not include an assessment of how behaviour will change without new restrictions being imposed can tell us next to nothing useful for guiding policy decisions over whether to impose restrictions. To make models actually useful for guiding policy the modelling teams urgently need to include economists or other similar experts in behaviour.

In the meantime, it appears there is little basis for additional restrictions at this point. Hospitalisations may grow a bit from here, but it is plausible that the peak hospitalisations we will see are already implied in the infections already contracted. Further restrictions now might cut the spread of the disease, slightly, but probably not in a way that would be useful in limiting pressures on the NHS – which seems likely to be able to cope in any event.
 

Bikeman78

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I think there is more chance of you winning the lottery than seeing any "evidence" that face coverings, work from home and vaccine passports are behind the current trajectory of cases.

You have only got to compare England with Scotland and Wales to see that the additional measures in Scotland and Wales have made very little difference to the spread of the Omicron variant.
Plan B in England was plan A in Wales throughout summer and autumn (I can't remember when vaccine passports started). It made no difference. Almost everywhere that required a passport in Wales is now shut.
 

Dent

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A rather odd article from the i:

The peak of the Omicron wave of infections sweeping across the UK is likely to be “long and drawn out” prompting fears of months of sustained pressure on the NHS, government advisers have warned.

Ministers had been hoping for infections caused by the Omicron variant to follow that witnessed in South Africa, with a rapid rise followed by an equally sharp fall in people contracting the disease.

First of all, if you actually look at the figures it doesn't look "long and drawn out" at all.

Secondly, if ministers were hoping for a rapid rise followed by an equally sharp fall, why did then introduce measures to try to slow the spread and draw the peak out for longer?
 

Simon11

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A rather odd article from the i:



First of all, if you actually look at the figures it doesn't look "long and drawn out" at all.

Secondly, if ministers were hoping for a rapid rise followed by an equally sharp fall, why did then introduce measures to try to slow the spread and draw the peak out for longer?

Definitely, its like they wrote it in mid-December and only just now published it [plus it's funny that they call it 'Exclusive'.....] ?

BBC presenting a completely different view at the moment which is more realistic.


Never heard of these guys, but I was slightly amused at their stupidity (although sorry for their families)

Grichka and Igor Bogdanoff became France's most famous twins, hosting a TV science and science-fiction show in the 1980s on a spaceship set.
They died of coronavirus within days of each other in hospital, Grichka on 28 December and his brother on Monday.
Aged 72, the brothers had not been vaccinated against Covid-19.
Their friends said they were convinced their healthy lifestyle would protect them and they were admitted to hospital in mid-December.
 
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Dent

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Never heard of these guys, but I was slightly amused (although sorry for their families)

I haven't read the whole article, but the first few paragraphs look like an attempt to weaponize these two unfortunate deaths for vaccine propaganda, rather poor taste.
 

DustyBin

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I haven't read the whole article, but the first few paragraphs look like an attempt to weaponize these two unfortunate deaths for vaccine propaganda, rather poor taste.

Most of these stories are the same. The relatives of the victim are always keen to say how they thought it wouldn’t happen to them, and how they begged for the vaccine in their dying moments. Would you really run to the press and say that? Poor taste as you say.
 

MikeWM

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Most of these stories are the same. The relatives of the victim are always keen to say how they thought it wouldn’t happen to them, and how they begged for the vaccine in their dying moments. Would you really run to the press and say that? Poor taste as you say.

Of course any relatives that said something else wouldn't have their view published, because it wouldn't fit the narrative.

In any event, it doesn't match up with my experiences. Most of those choosing not to be vaccinated appear to be fully aware that they will probably catch Covid at some point, and tend to have a much better understanding of the risk of dying from it than most (ie. non-zero, but much lower than most people think).
 

Horizon22

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Of course any relatives that said something else wouldn't have their view published, because it wouldn't fit the narrative.

In any event, it doesn't match up with my experiences. Most of those choosing not to be vaccinated appear to be fully aware that they will probably catch Covid at some point, and tend to have a much better understanding of the risk of dying from it than most (ie. non-zero, but much lower than most people think).

I know a number of colleagues utterly frustrated with close relatives who have gone down the anti-vax /Covid-denial route, so perhaps it is an honest assessment of their feelings.
 

MikeWM

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I know a number of colleagues utterly frustrated with close relatives who have gone down the anti-vax /Covid-denial route, so perhaps it is an honest assessment of their feelings.

Whatever they say or think in private, which is entirely their business, it doesn't strike me as the right or respectful thing to do to express those frustrations to the media about someone who has just died.
 

Horizon22

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Whatever they say or think in private, which is entirely their business, it doesn't strike me as the right or respectful thing to do to express those frustrations to the media about someone who has just died.

Perhaps not - and I certainly wouldn't - but people do odd stuff with a media spotlight.
 
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