Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Dent]

As if more proof were needed that we are now starting to see the downside of lockdowns/restrictions, have just seen this article from The Guardian:

"Parents are being warned to look out for signs of a non-Covid virus that is “rife” in the UK amid a surge in reports of children struggling to breathe.
The British Lung Foundation (BLF) said Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is staging a comeback this winter after lockdown last year meant there were fewer infections than would normally occur.
It is concerned that this year children will have “much lower immunity” at a time when the NHS is already under extreme pressure."
https://www.theguardian.com/society...ection-uk-rise-children-struggling-to-breathe

Another virus in the news, I hope no one starts calling for a similar response to this one.

 

[Huntergreed]

Another virus in the news, I hope no one starts calling for a similar response to this one.

Particularly as the response to covid is entirely to blame for this.

 

[BRX]

Particularly as the response to covid is entirely to blame for this.

Got any examples of countries whose response to Covid avoided these problems? So I can get an idea of the kind of response you think would have worked?

 

[seagull]

Why so defensive and confrontational? He didn't say there should have been a different response, only that the response has (fact) caused knock-on issues such as that mentioned. And that certainly does beg the question as to why that response should still be considered an appropriate one, at least by some, two years later, now that we know the virus is not as severe as once thought possible, and the price being paid due to diverting an excess of resources to it.

 

[BRX]

Why the word "blame" then?

 

[DustyBin]

Why the word "blame" then?

If it saves an argument over semantics perhaps you’d prefer “responsible”?

 

[43066]

Why the word "blame" then?

The “lockdown” response to Covid is what has caused the resurgence of the lung virus in the article quoted. That seems perfectly clear?

Got any examples of countries whose response to Covid avoided these problems? So I can get an idea of the kind of response you think would have worked?

What exactly do you mean by “worked” in this context?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Why so defensive and confrontational? He didn't say there should have been a different response, only that the response has (fact) caused knock-on issues such as that mentioned. And that certainly does beg the question as to why that response should still be considered an appropriate one, at least by some, two years later, now that we know the virus is not as severe as once thought possible, and the price being paid due to diverting an excess of resources to it.

It wasn't initially obvious that Omicron wasn't as severe as previous variants so it was right to be cautious initially but once there was hard evidence it was right to dial back the response. Reality here is had BoJo not been backed into corner by the rebels he would have gone with Whitty/Valence but he wasn't and as i said at the time a Rubicon was passed then and there would be no looking back by him. There will be no extension of regulations on 26th Jan and WFH guidance will be dialled back or scrapped as well.

 

[island]

Why so defensive and confrontational? .

You must be new here

 

[yorksrob]

Another virus in the news, I hope no one starts calling for a similar response to this one.

Those benefits of lockdown just keep on piling up don't they !

 

[DustyBin]

Right, I'm off out of this thread and back to the trains. Having been on the railway scene for 40 years or more I was aware that there are plenty of enthusiasts with "unconventional" views, but I wasn't aware that those included a wish to actively infect other people with a disease that could actually be pretty serious for them. I thought we'd reached a new low with those people who tried to stop the lifeboat launching in Sussex because it was going to help refugees. Clearly, I was wrong.

Even ignoring the “wish to actively infect other people” which is an obvious strawman, this has aged well hasn’t it?!

 

[brad465]

Van Tam has announced he is stepping down in March. I'm wondering if he sees the end and wants to go out then, thinking his job is done, and/or he's had enough:

Jonathan Van-Tam to leave role as deputy chief medical officer

The professor's colourful analogies helped explain coronavirus during Downing Street news briefings.

www.bbc.co.uk

Prof Sir Jonathan Van-Tam is leaving his role as England's deputy chief medical officer.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid said it had been "an honour" to work with the scientist and he was "hugely grateful for his advice".
Prof Van-Tam will continue to work for the government until the end of March.
He said it had been the "greatest privilege" of his professional career "to have served the people of the UK during this time".
The professor, who is leaving to take up a new role at the University of Nottingham, also said it had been the most challenging time of his professional career, especially the Covid response.
"We all wish Covid had never happened," he added, thanking all those he worked with during the pandemic.
Mr Javid paid tribute to the professor for the "vital role he has played in our vaccination programme" and wished him the best for the future.
"JVT's one-of-a-kind approach to communicating science over the past two years has no doubt played a vital role in protecting and reassuring the nation, and made him a national treasure," he said.
Prof Van-Tam was knighted in the most recent New Year Honours list, alongside Prof Sir Chris Whitty, chief medical officer for England and the UK government's chief medical adviser.

He has been the deputy chief medical officer for England since 2017 and became well-known for his colourful analogies during the government's coronavirus briefings, often appearing alongside the prime minister.
In late 2020 - while describing the early stages of the pandemic - he said "it's clear the away team gave us an absolute battering".
A year later, in November 2021, he warned "the final whistle hasn't blown" in the pandemic, but instead predicted we were in "half time of extra time".
"I love metaphors," he told the BBC in 2020. "I think they bring complex stories to life for people."
Prof Van-Tam had been on secondment to the Department of Health from the University of Nottingham. In his new role, he will be pro-vice-chancellor at the university's faculty of medicine and health sciences.
The 57-year-old lives with his wife and two teenage sons near Boston, Lincolnshire. He also has an older daughter. He is an avid fan of Boston United - perhaps explaining his choice of football-related metaphors.

 

[Bantamzen]

Van Tam has announced he is stepping down in March. I'm wondering if he sees the end and wants to go out then, thinking his job is done, and/or he's had enough:

Jonathan Van-Tam to leave role as deputy chief medical officer

The professor's colourful analogies helped explain coronavirus during Downing Street news briefings.

www.bbc.co.uk

I think the March date is significant, that's when all restrictions may be lifted if rumours are to be believed.

 

[westv]

I think the March date is significant, that's when all restrictions may be lifted if rumours are to be believed.

Don't the restrictions end 26th of this month?

 

[Lampshade]

Don't the restrictions end 26th of this month?

March is when the Coronavirus Act expires, or is renewed.

 

[yorkie]

Don't the restrictions end 26th of this month?

The "plan B" measures (masks, work from home and proof of vaccination for large events) end on 26 January but other measures such as isolation if positive won't expire for another couple of months after that.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

I think the March date is significant, that's when all restrictions may be lifted if rumours are to be believed.

Please tell me the March date also includes UK entry requirement (from other countries) Covid restrictions such as the Passanger Locator Form.

 

[P Binnersley]

Please tell me the March date also includes UK entry requirement (from other countries) Covid restrictions such as the Passanger Locator Form.

Currently due to expire on 16th May 2022.
This can be brought forward or extended if a Minister so desires.

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, International Travel and Operator Liability) (England) Regulations 2021 (revoked)

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

www.legislation.gov.uk

 

[duncanp]

Currently due to expire on 16th May 2022.
This can be brought forward or extended if a Minster so desires.

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, International Travel and Operator Liability) (England) Regulations 2021 (revoked)

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

www.legislation.gov.uk

I think there is every chance the Passenger Locator Form will be abolished sooner than 16th May.

Other countries such as France and the United States don't require it, and no-one looks at the details anyway.

Not only that, but I am not aware of any evidence that these stupid forms do anything to slow the transmission of COVID-19, or protect the UK against new variants imported from abroad.

When I actually filled in a PLF last year coming back from France, the only people who looked at it were the Eurostar staff, and that was only to make sure that I had one. Neither the French or UK immigration officers took the slightest notice of it.

 

[nw1]

The "plan B" measures (masks, work from home and proof of vaccination for large events) end on 26 January but other measures such as isolation if positive won't expire for another couple of months after that.

I'm sure the paranoia about returning from overseas could be lifted sooner than 16 May, in fact probably right now, given that the UK is amongst the 'leading' countries for Omicron so it serves no purpose whatsoever.

 

[90sWereBetter]

If Plan B does end on the 26th January, would we expect the mask mandate on public transport to be lifted as well, or would that continue a bit longer given it was brought in several days before Plan B?

Hoping it's the former, I'm in London on the 27th and 28th, would be nice to do a trip without masks every five minutes.

 

[westv]

If Plan B does end on the 26th January, would we expect the mask mandate on public transport to be lifted as well, or would that continue a bit longer given it was brought in several days before Plan B?

Hoping it's the former, I'm in London on the 27th and 28th, would be nice to do a trip without masks every five minutes.

Maybe it would revert back to being advisory?

 

[Dent]

If Plan B does end on the 26th January, would we expect the mask mandate on public transport to be lifted as well, or would that continue a bit longer given it was brought in several days before Plan B?

Hoping it's the former, I'm in London on the 27th and 28th, would be nice to do a trip without masks every five minutes.

The legal requirement expires on the 26th, no idea what TfL will try to impose through their conditions of travel.

 

[greyman42]

Maybe it would revert back to being advisory?

Hopefully it will but if not just claim an exemption.

 

[brad465]

Today's dashboard update reveals 99,652 reported cases, so we have a day now back under 100k since Omicron first surged, and hospital admissions nationally for the last 7 days have declined as well. Deaths within 28 days of a positive test are still surging, but the trend of the other 2 main metrics suggests this won't last much longer.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Today's dashboard update reveals 99,652 reported cases, so we have a day now back under 100k since Omicron first surged, and hospital admissions nationally for the last 7 days have declined as well. Deaths within 28 days of a positive test are still surging, but the trend of the other 2 main metrics suggests this won't last much longer.

Even more dramatic is the continuing daily decline of mechanically ventilated patients according to NHS England data down to 637 this morning was last this low on 11th October 2021. Total hospitalised has been declining in NHS England across London, SE Regions and has plateaued across other remaining regions despite high levels of case in first week of January.

 

[brad465]

This is a surprising BBC analysis given their track record, they've done an article about what's going on with covid deaths, and, even if the proportions are not correct, they seem to be acknowledging that not all the deaths reported as covid deaths were actually caused by covid:

What’s really going on with Covid deaths data?

A bigger proportion of deaths recorded in the daily data are people who died with Covid, rather than from it.

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid deaths are rising sharply in the UK, but an increasing proportion of these are actually due to something else, BBC analysis suggests.
That's because some people die with Covid rather than from it.
The Omicron wave is driving rising infections, which means more people will catch it and some will get sick.
Deaths will inevitably increase too, but not all will be "true" Covid ones. Others will be people who happened to test positive.
There are a number of ways we monitor the number of deaths connected to Covid. The most prominent is the daily count of anyone who has died within 28 days of testing positive.
For the vast majority of those people, Covid has been the primary cause of their death.
But there has always been a minority who died from another cause. And with Omicron infecting so many people, there is a higher likelihood of people dying from an unrelated reason in the month after testing positive than there has been in the past.
Doctors registering a death record what may have contributed to it, and what most likely caused it.
If Covid contributed in some way, that's a death "involving Covid". The number of these deaths has tracked the daily death count closely throughout most of the pandemic.
During autumn and the run-up to Christmas, only about 15% of deaths involving Covid in England and Wales did not list Covid as the cause.
In the week after Christmas, that rose to 22%.
And in the coming weeks "we might expect that to rise further" says Cambridge statistician Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter "reflecting the very high levels of people with coronavirus".

Also of note, The Telegraph tomorrow are reporting that Plan B is set to end on the 26th as Johnson tries to fightback:

Tomorrow's Papers Today - UK Front Pages - Latest Newspaper Headlines

All of UK's Tomorrow's Front Pages ✅ Updated Daily between 7PM - 11pm ✅ The Mail, Express, Times, Guardian and many more Proudly supporting #buyapaper

www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk

 

[duncanp]

The Telegraph does say that "..some rules on face masks may remain..",but even if they do, I wouldn't worry because compliance and enforcement is going to drop off a cliff, especially after the latest revelations about "wine Fridays" at Downing street right throughout the pandemic.

Restrictions are over in all but name.

 

[Bantamzen]

This is a surprising BBC analysis given their track record, they've done an article about what's going on with covid deaths, and, even if the proportions are not correct, they seem to be acknowledging that not all the deaths reported as covid deaths were actually caused by covid:

What’s really going on with Covid deaths data?

A bigger proportion of deaths recorded in the daily data are people who died with Covid, rather than from it.

www.bbc.co.uk

Also of note, The Telegraph tomorrow are reporting that Plan B is set to end on the 26th as Johnson tries to fightback:

Tomorrow's Papers Today - UK Front Pages - Latest Newspaper Headlines

All of UK's Tomorrow's Front Pages ✅ Updated Daily between 7PM - 11pm ✅ The Mail, Express, Times, Guardian and many more Proudly supporting #buyapaper

www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk

View attachment 108779

Clearly Auntie Beeb has started to realise that they need to dial back some credibility after 2 years of hysteria.

 

[duncanp]

Clearly Auntie Beeb has started to realise that they need to dial back some credibility after 2 years of hysteria.

But the "...SAGE scientists..." haven't yet realised the same thing, nor have Locktivist Sky News.

They are now warning of an "..Omicron Exit Wave.." in the summer once all restrictions are scrapped, with between 1,000 and 2,000 hospitalisations every day.

Put a <expletive deleted> sock in it will you.

Over the past two years we have had just about as much as we can take of your scaremongering, inaccurate so called "modelling" and your downright lies.

No-one is listening to you any more.

COVID-19: Omicron 'exit wave' possible in the summer, scientists say

Early data has shown Omicron to be a milder form of COVID-19, but that does not mean everyone can relax as hospital admissions are yet to peak, the scientists say.

news.sky.com

COVID-19: Omicron 'exit wave' possible in the summer, scientists say​

Early data has shown Omicron to be a milder form of COVID-19, but that does not mean everyone can relax as hospital admissions are yet to peak, the scientists say.

A wave of Omicron cases is possible over the summer as people resume social activities and the effect of the vaccines wanes, according to scientists advising the government.

Experts from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the precise timing and magnitude of the "exit wave" is "highly dependent on both population behaviour and the scale of the current wave, and cannot be predicted with any certainty".


According to modelling, the projection is for between fewer than 1,000 admissions each day in the next wave to about 2,000 each day, if plan B restrictions remain in place until the end of January and are followed by a gradual return to socialising.

Omicron has shown itself to be a milder form of COVID-19, with those admitted to hospital less likely to need oxygen and less likely to require intensive care, early data suggests.

Instead, there have generally been better outcomes and shorter stays for patients, and one analysis showed a reduction in risk of hospitalisation of between 35% and 65% for Omicron when compared with Delta.

The growth advantage of Omicron over Delta may also have been over-estimated, the documents suggest, due to Omicron having a shorter generation time (the average time between a person getting infected and then infecting others).

But that does not mean everyone can relax, as hospital admissions are expected to peak later this month, according to the group.

The group said: "It remains likely based on the scenarios that hospital admissions in England will remain high for some time as a result of the very high number of infections and the continued risk of hospitalisation for the elderly and unvaccinated adults in particular."

On Friday, the UK Health Security Agency updated England's COVID R number to between 1.1 and 1.5 - a slightly wider range than last week's estimate of 1.2 to 1.5.

This means that every 10 people infected with coronavirus will on average pass the disease to between 11 and 15 other people.

The UK reported 99,652 new cases on Friday - down from 109,133 on Thursday. This means that the seven-day tally fell by 29.5% compared to the previous week.

On Tuesday, rules came into force meaning that people in England who get a positive result from a lateral flow test will no longer need a follow-up PCR to begin their isolation period if they do not have symptoms.

There were 270 deaths reported in the same 24-hour period to Friday - down from 335 deaths reported on Thursday and 398 deaths reported on Wednesday.

Friday's figures showed that the seven-day total for deaths was up 67% on the previous week.

This brings the total number of COVID-related deaths to more than 151,000.

However, separate figures published by the Office for National Statistics show there have been more than 174,000 deaths registered in the UK where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.