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Oxford Vaccine phase three trial suggests it's highly effective with up to 90% protection

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hwl

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Importantly it has been reported that of those vaccinated in the trial, none who contracted Covid-19 developed serious symptoms and none were hospitalised.
Which is better than Pfizer or Moderna and possible a more interesting/useful metric to base things on. We probably should be judging effectiveness on a single measure!

Looking at the average age and general health of those who die from (or is it with, nobody knows!) Covid-19, what will vaccinating them achieve? Have the vaccines even been tested on the most vulnerable (and I don’t mean healthy 60 year olds who aren’t actually vulnerable)? It was something my GF said this morning that got me thinking about this, but should we expect to see a huge reduction in excess deaths next year?
None of the vaccines have been tested on those with comorbidities (I.e. those with another illness pre existing condition). While they may have been tested on older people (70-85 in the "Oxford" case) they haven't been tested on the more vulnerable older people where a large number of the deaths and hospitalisations have been occurring and we have no idea how much the vaccine will be effective in that group. Hence lots of people might be being more optimistic than they should.
The net result is that there will probably need to be a phase 2 vaccination programme where the 16/18-60 age group are targeted to reduce the general case rate so the chance of the vulnerable coming into contact with an infected person is lower.
The effectiveness is measuring the reduction in infection rate of those vaccinated, there isn't any data on transmission apart from a sub-set of the oxford trial (not published).
 
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DustyBin

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None of the vaccines have been tested on those with comorbidities (I.e. those with another illness pre existing condition). While they may have been tested on older people (70-85 in the "Oxford" case) they haven't been tested on the more vulnerable older people where a large number of the deaths and hospitalisations have been occurring and we have no idea how much the vaccine will be effective in that group. Hence lots of people might be being more optimistic than they should.
The net result is that there will probably need to be a phase 2 vaccination programme where the 16/18-60 age group are targeted to reduce the general case rate so the chance of the vulnerable coming into contact with an infected person is lower.
The effectiveness is measuring the reduction in infection rate of those vaccinated, there isn't any data on transmission apart from a sub-set of the oxford trial (not published).

Thanks, that answers my question. Everything is riding on these vaccines now so I do hope they're effective!
 

Skimpot flyer

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It was something my GF said this morning that got me thinking about this, but should we expect to see a huge reduction in excess deaths next year?
I would suggest probably not, due to large numbers of deaths from undiagnosed / untreated other conditions outstripping deaths with coronavirus.
An unexplained 30,000 extra deaths of people in their homes since the first lockdown is just the tip of that iceberg, I feel
 

DB

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I would suggest probably not, due to large numbers of deaths from undiagnosed / untreated other conditions outstripping deaths with coronavirus.
An unexplained 30,000 extra deaths of people in their homes since the first lockdown is just the tip of that iceberg, I feel

What's the suicide rate looking like this year compared to the five year average?
 

bramling

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I would suggest probably not, due to large numbers of deaths from undiagnosed / untreated other conditions outstripping deaths with coronavirus.
An unexplained 30,000 extra deaths of people in their homes since the first lockdown is just the tip of that iceberg, I feel

Yes, very sadly the cancer death rate will be one to keep an eye on over the next few years. The tragic thing with that is this will likely be a much lower typical age than Covid.
 

Skimpot flyer

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Yes, very sadly the cancer death rate will be one to keep an eye on over the next few years. The tragic thing with that is this will likely be a much lower typical age than Covid.
and those excess deaths from suicide and untreated other conditions will likely far exceed the deaths with coronavirus (a figure that itself is inflated, by including deaths from any cause within 28 days of a positive test)
 

brad465

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What's the suicide rate looking like this year compared to the five year average?
I don't know exactly, but do though the data from the ONS for 2019 showed it was the highest since 2000 then, so no doubt this year will be worse. In terms of more recent I remember just before lockdown the London Ambulance service tweeting stats on responding to suicides/attempted suicides was up to 37 per day from 22 the same time last year (this is just London remember), which sounds concerning indeed.
 

matt

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Just a reminder that this thread is for discusdion of the Oxford Vaccine rather than other Covid issues.
 

Pete_uk

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Hold your horses, the vaccine has had a manufacturing problem and somw more trials will be needed
 

158756

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There's been a lot of criticism of the trials this week. The "90% effective" dose error was apparently only given to people under 55, and there are questions about how they calculated the results.

From https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/26/ast...cine-trials-after-questions-raised-in-us.html
Particularly harsh criticism came from U.S.-based health care and biotech investment bank SVB Leerink, whose analysts wrote Monday: “We believe that this product will never be licensed in the U.S.”

“This belief is based on the design of the company’s pivotal trials which does not appear to match the FDA’s requirements for representation of minorities, severe cases, previously infected individuals and elderly and other increase risk populations,” the analysis said.

When the vaccine was given as intended, it was only 62% effective. There are other vaccines at 90 or 95% which will be fit for use in the US. If it wasn't British would anyone want this one?
 

adc82140

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There is no manufacturing problem. Don't know where you got that from. There was a bit of a dosage cock up during the trials. It won't affect the roll out, as even at the lower effectiveness value of 62% it's still over the 50% threshold that is deemed to be acceptable, and way above the annual flu jab. With the proper dosage it's nearer 90%. BBC article is here:


But after the jubilation, some negative press has followed.
On Thursday, multiple news outlets in the UK and US reported that there were questions over the data. They weren't about safety, but rather how effective the jab is.
The questions centre around efficacy levels.
Three were reported from the trial - an overall efficacy of 70%, a lower one of 62% and a high of 90%.
That's because different doses of the vaccine were mistakenly used in the trial. Some volunteers were given shots half the planned strength, in error. Yet that "wrong" dose turned out to be a winner.
 

birchesgreen

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What a surprise the Americans don't like a foreign made vaccine, especially one which will be sold at cost!
 

philosopher

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What a surprise the Americans don't like a foreign made vaccine, especially one which will be sold at cost!
I am not sure what to make of this. It does clearly like look Oxford / AstraZeneca screwed up with the dosing, however could this have something to do with US protectionism too.

I suspect it is a bit of both.
 

Yew

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Weren't the testing regimes different, Pfizer et al only tested those with symptoms, whereas AZ tested everyone regulalry.
 

adc82140

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A vaccine that's cheap, safe, 62% effective and keeps 100% out of hospital is good enough for me. We have GOT to get out of this mindset that no one should be a bit unwell ever again.
 

yorkie

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Let's hope they dont!

They will see it as a threat because it's so much cheaper than theirs; it's not just the cost of production but storage/transport costs. A £15+ vaccine that also requires storing at -70 degrees isn't suitable for most of the world.
 

The Ham

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A vaccine that's cheap, safe, 62% effective and keeps 100% out of hospital is good enough for me. We have GOT to get out of this mindset that no one should be a bit unwell ever again.

Even if it's only 99.9% effective at keeping people out of hospital then under the current 1,575,000 cases then that's only 1,575 people who would be needing treatment. That compares with the 57,000 deaths we've seen.

It would put the risk of being hospitalised by Covid-19 at about the same risk as dieing on the roads due to a collision, and so life would be able to return to normal.

That is unless we're going to do something equally drastic about road safety.
 

yorksrob

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I suspect that concerns about the Oxford vaccine are overblown. The best way to put such concerns to bed would be to undertake a more comprehensive trial of the apparently 90% effective 1/2 + 1 dose, to evaluate its effectiveness across a more representative range of age groups. I'd be surprised if this wasn't already taking place.
 

adc82140

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News this morning is that it has been submitted to the MHRA for approval. That's a big step, and proof that yesterday some elements of the media wanted to make a mountain out of a molehill
 

hwl

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Let's hope they dont!

They will see it as a threat because it's so much cheaper than theirs; it's not just the cost of production but storage/transport costs. A £15+ vaccine that also requires storing at -70 degrees isn't suitable for most of the world.
That boutique US investment bank /advisory firm is probably miffed because the Oxford / AstraZenaca vaccine is being sold initially on not for profit basis and is far far cheaper then the Pfizer / Moderna ones and can be produced in far large quantities. The "No hospitalisated cases" is the same as Moderna and better than Pfizer.
As @Yew points out the more inclusive definition of a case by Oxford / AstraZenaca will raise some question on what the 95% number really means for Pfizer / Moderna. Most of the UK participants in the Oxford/AZ trial had weekly tests which picked up asymptomatic cases which will have lowered the measured effectiveness as it picked up more infections in both groups, as the ratio between the two matters.

Another issues with both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine trials failed to ask participants who didn't show symptoms or have a +ve test result about what risk mitigation measures they were taking or having to take, hence the 95% reduction includes elements the effect of mask, distancing, working from home, government (or state in US) mandated restrictions or voluntary risk mitigation measures that changed during the trials and may not be in place for the medium of long term.

The local weather /climate is likely to have an effect on the results too, with higher transmission rates in winter.

This points to the vaccines being less effective in general use than the 90%+ figures suggest especially when other measures are relaxed hence it looks like we will need more vaccination overall to have a big impact (e.g. a phase 2 "rest of adult population" vaccination programme.)

The Oxford / AZ trial analysis should appear in the Lancet this weekend which should be interesting.
 
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I heard somewhere (can't remember where, but I think it was BBC) that the Pfizer vaccine could be out of cold storage for the last 5 days before use and still not lose its effectiveness. This was presented as that it could be transported and kept at the GP surgery for a few days at standard refrigerated temperatures, reducing the storage cost massively.

Yes - outside of deep-cold freezers it can store in dry ice packs for 10 days and then 5 further days in a standard fridge once thawed

this was probably this article - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54889084
 

brad465

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If there was one story that sums up British exceptionalism/jingoism, it's this one about putting Union jacks on Oxford vaccine doses:


Downing Street has attempted to get doses of the Oxford University coronavirus vaccine labelled with Union Jacks.

HuffPost UK understands No.10′s newly-formed “Union unit”, tasked with fighting calls for Scottish independence and other campaigns to break up the UK, wanted injection kits to bear the flag.


It asked the government’s vaccine task force to insist manufacturers of the vaccine – developed by Britain’s top university alongside pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca – use the UK flag.

No.10 said there were no plans for the Union Jack to be on doses, but did not deny that the request – said by insiders to have strong backing from health secretary Matt Hancock and business secretary Alok Sharma – had been made.

A government spokesperson said: “Manufacturing for some of the leading potential vaccines is already underway so they can be rolled out quickly if approved.
Not to mention that if this is true it's extra cost and time wasting we could seriously do without.
 

yorksrob

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Countries all over the world will be trying to gain comparative advantage through this crisis. Given how hard this country has been hit by the virus, both medically and economically, I don't have a problem with the Government using branding to highlight the role that British academia/industry may have had in bringing it to market, although there are probably more subtle ways of doing this than shoving the flag on everything.
 

Yew

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I've started a thread to discuss the rollout of vaccines, apparently the NHS are hoping to vaccinate a million people a week.}}

 

brad465

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Countries all over the world will be trying to gain comparative advantage through this crisis. Given how hard this country has been hit by the virus, both medically and economically, I don't have a problem with the Government using branding to highlight the role that British academia/industry may have had in bringing it to market, although there are probably more subtle ways of doing this than shoving the flag on everything.
I would imagine a "made in xxx" inscription akin to that of most products one buys is good enough, but full blown flags on every vile seems excessive.
 

yorksrob

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I would imagine a "made in xxx" inscription akin to that of most products one buys is good enough, but full blown flags on every vile seems excessive.

Perhaps some logo based on the dreaming spires of Oxford. I think it would also be worth trumpeting how the innovation and technical expertise of the democratic western world has resulted in the development of such vaccines, at this juncture in history.
 

Chester1

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A vaccine that's cheap, safe, 62% effective and keeps 100% out of hospital is good enough for me. We have GOT to get out of this mindset that no one should be a bit unwell ever again.

Nail on the head. I would rather have the Oxford vaccine, not because its British but because its based on tried and tested technology and has a 100% efficacy for the thing that it really needs to do. I am not bothered about a small chance of flu like symptoms.

Nothing wrong with the government trying to get good PR for the country out of it. Its what I expect every government of a country with a vaccine will do.
 
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