Passenger Journeys increase by 4.4%

[Chris125]

ORR Passenger Usage Report

"In 2014-15 Q2, franchised passenger journeys reached 407.7 million, a 4.4% increase on the same quarter in 2013-14."

Not only have passenger journeys increased but as Roger Ford pointed out "after a couple of years flatlining passenger km are rising again in all three sectors":

"In 2014-15 Q2 there were 15.8 billion franchised passenger kilometres, an increase of 4.4% compared to the same quarter last year."

London & South East passenger kilometres increased by 2.8%, Long Distance was up 5.5% and Regional up 6.1% over the same period the year before.

Chris

 

[WatcherZero]

Wasn't Roger Ford claiming a couple of years ago there was no point investing in regional rail as passenger numbers had peaked and would never grow again, or was that Wolmar, or actually both?

I think the Pundits pessimism has been proven wrong.

 

[NSEFAN]

How do these figures compare with other modes of transport? IIRC rail typically has had the same proportion of all travellers for many years (including before privatisation, dare I drag this into yet another debate )

 

[Chris125]

Wasn't Roger Ford claiming a couple of years ago there was no point investing in regional rail as passenger numbers had peaked and would never grow again, or was that Wolmar, or actually both?

I think the Pundits pessimism has been proven wrong.

I'm pretty sure Roger Ford had been pointing to the flatlining of passenger km to suggest the railway industry shouldn't assume the massive growth will continue, but that's looking a little shaky now.

Chris

 

[WatcherZero]

Yowzers, London SE and Intercity revenue both rose 6.8%, regional revenue rose 9% year on year, open access operators revenue rose 16.7%.
Passengers LSE 4.3%, Long Distance 3.5%, Regional 5.1%

combined with your earlier passenger km increase
LSE 2.8%, Long Distance was up 5.5% and Regional up 6.1%


So that continues the trend of the last couple of years of people in LSE region averaging shorter and shorter journeys.

 

[21C101]

Yowzers, London SE and Intercity revenue both rose 6.8%, regional revenue rose 9% year on year, open access operators revenue rose 16.7%.
Passengers LSE 4.3%, Long Distance 3.5%, Regional 5.1%

combined with your earlier passenger km increase
LSE 2.8%, Long Distance was up 5.5% and Regional up 6.1%


So that continues the trend of the last couple of years of people in LSE region averaging shorter and shorter journeys.

Its getting towards the point where within a few years, with fares rising the way they have been that the majority of lines will be commercially viable.

 

[30907]

Yowzers, London SE and Intercity revenue both rose 6.8%, regional revenue rose 9% year on# year, open access operators revenue rose 16.7%.
Passengers LSE 4.3%, Long Distance 3.5%, Regional 5.1%

combined with your earlier passenger km increase
LSE 2.8%, Long Distance was up 5.5% and Regional up 6.1%


So that continues the trend of the last couple of years of people in LSE region averaging shorter and shorter journeys.

Possibly because the major growth in LSE service provision has been Overground which lends itself to shorter journeys?

 

[Bald Rick]

Possibly because the major growth in LSE service provision has been Overground which lends itself to shorter journeys?

That's part of it. But it is similar across much of zone 2-4 London. Look at the growth at Lewisham in the last 5 years for example.

 

[Starmill]

Look how it notes where the Open Access revenue comes from:

Revenue generated by non-franchised operators increased substantially by 16.7%,
recording total revenue of £15.7 million. This may be seen as a direct result of the
increasing passenger journeys and kilometres the non-franchised sector has been
enjoying over the past few years with the highest revenue coming in from the sale
of Ordinary Advance tickets.

I remain very skeptical that selling loads of Advance tickets is an optimal or desirable market and revenue structure for non-franchised operators.

 

[SF-02]

That's part of it. But it is similar across much of zone 2-4 London. Look at the growth at Lewisham in the last 5 years for example.

Yes there has been large growth but also Lewisham has been helped as it has been gated almost all day over the past few years, which has helped stop ticketless travel. It's a rare exception with southeastern stations - if many were staffed like the LO or underground other stations would see numbers jump. Probably not as much as LO but still more than even these healthy numbers show.

 

[21C101]

Yes there has been large growth but also Lewisham has been helped as it has been gated almost all day over the past few years, which has helped stop ticketless travel. It's a rare exception with southeastern stations - if many were staffed like the LO or underground other stations would see numbers jump. Probably not as much as LO but still more than even these healthy numbers show.

With the growth in gatelines in recent years it does make you wonder how much of the growth was already there but not paying their fares before.

 

[yorksrob]

I remain very skeptical that selling loads of Advance tickets is an optimal or desirable market and revenue structure for non-franchised operators.

Perhaps a fair point, but at the same time, as a single person without access to any sort of railcard, advanced purchase on open access operators is often a bit of a godsend, particularly if you aren't able to book three months in advance, and the franchise operator isn't offering anything particularly spectacular in terms of value.


That said, I found it profoundly disappointing when GC discontinued their highly innovative and very handy experiment with walk on offer tickets. for once this was something genuinely different.

 

[Olaf]

How do these figures compare with other modes of transport? IIRC rail typically has had the same proportion of all travellers for many years (including before privatisation, dare I drag this into yet another debate )

There has been a gradual modal-shift in the UK to rail, bringing it back into line with what appears to be an EU average of about 8% of journeys being by rail. However as the growth continues, the UK is likely to rise above the EU average, where growth tends to be fairly stagnant or negative (based on 2010/12 figures).

 

[TheKnightWho]

Look how it notes where the Open Access revenue comes from:



I remain very skeptical that selling loads of Advance tickets is an optimal or desirable market and revenue structure for non-franchised operators.

Why? Good luck filling those HSTs from Sunderland to London without advance tickets...

 

[Olaf]

I'm pretty sure Roger Ford had been pointing to the flatlining of passenger km to suggest the railway industry shouldn't assume the massive growth will continue, but that's looking a little shaky now.

Chris

There will be an upper bound on each of the figures of some kind, but predicting what those bounds are is non-trivial. Add to that, the existing models do not adequately predict growth in the provinces so there is still a away to go before anyone can make those predictions.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

 

[yorksrob]

In spite of the growth, which is to be welcomed, I believe Roger Ford has a point that we should be wary of assuming that growth will continue forever. Particularly if this infernal Google car makes any headway.

 

[DarloRich]

I remain very skeptical that selling loads of Advance tickets is an optimal or desirable market and revenue structure for non-franchised operators.

You have to build market share and attract passengers somehow. How will you do that other than on price, if the franchised operator provides much more frequent and potentially quicker services often at more attractive times?

Perhaps a fair point, but at the same time, as a single person without access to any sort of railcard, advanced purchase on open access operators is often a bit of a godsend, particularly if you aren't able to book three months in advance, and the franchise operator isn't offering anything particularly spectacular in terms of value.

Exatly! This is something the railcard wonders never ever seem to grasp. The real world will be a shock to them.

 

[WatcherZero]

Accompanying regional usage profile for 13/14 now released by ORR

Region/usage to and from/Usage within region/ year on year change in total usage/ over last decade
North West 32m, 89m, +7%, 119%
West Midlands 27m, 51m, +6%, 135%
Wales 9m, 20m, +2%, 48%
South West 24m, 23m, +2%, 58%
Scotland 8m, 83m, +1%, 55%
North East 9m, 6m, +4%, 47%
Yorkshire and Humber 24m, 42m, +3%, 75%
East Midlands 23m, 8m, +1%, 34%
East 135m, 31m , +4%, 36%
London 370m, 464m, +6%, 66%
South East 208m, 81m, +3%, 44%

(ORR has rounded the figures)

http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/16667/regional-usage-profiles-2013-14.pdf

 

[RichmondCommu]

Look how it notes where the Open Access revenue comes from:



I remain very skeptical that selling loads of Advance tickets is an optimal or desirable market and revenue structure for non-franchised operators.

Well that's their problem! If they want to sell tickets they have to make travel affordable.

 

[HSTEd]

Accompanying regional usage profile for 13/14 now released by ORR

Region/usage to and from/Usage within region/ year on year change in total usage/ over last decade
North West 32m, 89m, +7%, 119%
West Midlands 27m, 51m, +6%, 135%
Wales 9m, 20m, +2%, 48%
South West 24m, 23m, +2%, 58%
Scotland 8m, 83m, +1%, 55%
North East 9m, 6m, +4%, 47%
Yorkshire and Humber 24m, 42m, +3%, 75%
East Midlands 23m, 8m, +1%, 34%
East 135m, 31m , +4%, 36%
London 370m, 464m, +6%, 66%
South East 208m, 81m, +3%, 44%

(ORR has rounded the figures)

http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/16667/regional-usage-profiles-2013-14.pdf

That really shows the magic of compound interest.

 

[Steveo77]

if passenger numbers keep rising then I think there are going to be some serious problems.

already I think SWT are running at full capacity on their lines into Waterloo and people are struggling to board at stops coming into London.

I would be very wary of living near to any small station in the future.

 

[HSTEd]

You will need high speed lines in all the directions.
Ironically I think this makes me a visionary (for proposing Shinkansen all over the place)

 

[muddythefish]

Accompanying regional usage profile for 13/14 now released by ORR

Region/usage to and from/Usage within region/ year on year change in total usage/ over last decade
North West 32m, 89m, +7%, 119%
West Midlands 27m, 51m, +6%, 135%
Wales 9m, 20m, +2%, 48%
South West 24m, 23m, +2%, 58%
Scotland 8m, 83m, +1%, 55%
North East 9m, 6m, +4%, 47%
Yorkshire and Humber 24m, 42m, +3%, 75%
East Midlands 23m, 8m, +1%, 34%
East 135m, 31m , +4%, 36%
London 370m, 464m, +6%, 66%
South East 208m, 81m, +3%, 44%

(ORR has rounded the figures)

http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/16667/regional-usage-profiles-2013-14.pdf

North West and West Midlands obviously the stand-out figures and where most new investment should be concentrated.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

North West and West Midlands obviously the stand-out figures and where most new investment should be concentrated.

Concur - and that is why (despite issues on "delivery" of projects) why the Northern schemes and electrification of the Chase line / New Street station have been pushed through (when other spending areas have seen cuts) - not perfect by any means , but you follow the drift.

 

[455driver]

Just goes to show how off putting the nasty, spiteful railway is doesnt it!

 

[Clarence Yard]

The ORR statement on Open Access Advance is slightly misleading. The growth in Advance is also there on franchised Intercity services, so much so that inter-available walk up on primary flows is now very much a minority product on most lines.

It is getting to the stage where, on some services, the majority of IA punters are those connecting in or out and even these are now being whittled away with "and connections" dedicated products.

 

[WatcherZero]

What I find fascinating is some of the regional disparities, First the extremes East for example, over four times as many journeys start or end outside the region than wholly within the region similarly Scotland where ten times as many journeys within than in or out. Then you have more reasonable multiples Yorkshire, Wales, West Midlands and North West more than twice as many journeys are wholly within the region than to or from. London, South West and North East its almost equally balanced.

 

[clc]

Accompanying regional usage profile for 13/14 now released by ORR

Region/usage to and from/Usage within region/ year on year change in total usage/ over last decade
North West 32m, 89m, +7%, 119%
West Midlands 27m, 51m, +6%, 135%
Wales 9m, 20m, +2%, 48%
South West 24m, 23m, +2%, 58%
Scotland 8m, 83m, +1%, 55%
North East 9m, 6m, +4%, 47%
Yorkshire and Humber 24m, 42m, +3%, 75%
East Midlands 23m, 8m, +1%, 34%
East 135m, 31m , +4%, 36%
London 370m, 464m, +6%, 66%
South East 208m, 81m, +3%, 44%

(ORR has rounded the figures)

http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/16667/regional-usage-profiles-2013-14.pdf

I note 83m within Scotland. The 2003 Scottish Strategic Rail Study projected 98m by 2020 under a high resource scenario, which entailed building major infrastructure schemes such as EARL, GARL, Aberdeen Crossrail, both versions of Glasgow Crossrail (tunnel and City Union line); re-opening St Andrews, Peterhead, Banchory, Bridge of Weir, Penicuik and Edinburgh Suburban lines; and a long list of other capacity enhancing infrastructure improvements.

Actual investment has been much lower than that but it looks like we're on course to hit the high resource projection anyway. Makes you wonder what growth would have been like had the high resource level of investments been implemented though.