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Petrol panic buying

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asw22

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Fuel duty has had its duty frozen for 10 years. Needs to be doubled!

Since 2003 inflation has been 162% so a basket of goods costing £100 in 2003 would now cost £162
In 2003 my bus and train pass cost £65 per month - it now costs £145 per month

Petrol costs in 2003 were around £1.10 per litre so
if they tracked inflation it would be £1.78 per litre
if they tracked bus and train fare costs then petrol would now cost £2.45 per litre.

So bus and train fares have increased in real terms while petrol costs have actually fallen in real terms
 
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Dai Corner

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Fuel has multiple different taxes. They just froze that particular one to please the general public, who don't know any better.
VAT has been the same rate for over ten years as well as fuel duty. Which fuel taxes haven't been frozen did you have in mind?
 

MotCO

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The Daily Telegraph is reporting that the shortage of petrol resulted from garages running down their stocks of old E95 petrol for the introduction of E10 petrol from 1st September. Someone then speculated that there were lower level of petrol stocks than normal at garages, and the panic started. It does not explain why diesel stocks were depleted, but it is an interesting theory.


The Government’s switch to greener petrol last month was a “major factor” behind the fuel crisis that saw forecourts across the country run dry, industry chiefs have revealed.
Retailers said they had already been “emptying their tanks as fast as we could” for the switchover to E10 petrol when a sudden surge in panic buying quickly drained their remaining stocks.
According to official figures released on Thursday, fuel deliveries to petrol stations remained steady over the summer and throughout most of September despite warnings of a slowdown caused by a shortage of HGV drivers.
Yet the amount of spare fuel stored at forecourts fell sharply by up to a quarter after Sept 1, when the Government introduced greener E10 fuel as the standard unleaded petrol.
When motorists began panic buying on Sept 24, garages across the country found they did not have enough in their storage tanks to keep up with demand.



Brian Madderson, the chairman of the Petrol Retailers Association, said the data showed that the fuel crisis had been an “unintended consequence” of the Government’s switch to greener petrol.
“For weeks we had been emptying our tanks of E5, the old fuel, as fast as we could to get ready for E10. We had all run our petrol stocks down,” Mr Madderson said.
“So when the panic buying started, many of our members ran out pretty quickly. Then the shortage of HGV drivers meant we couldn’t get supplies quickly enough.
“I don’t blame the Government particularly but the E10 switchover clearly had an unintended consequence: we couldn’t cope with the surge in demand.”



Ministers rolled out E10, which is blended with a minimum of 5.5 per cent biofuel, as the standard unleaded petrol from Sept 1. Previously the regular unleaded was E5, although E10 has been on sale for some time in the UK and many European countries. The move was an interim step to help the UK reach its target of net zero emissions by 2030.
Mr Madderson said some smaller petrol stations had been in the process of switching their storage facilities when the crisis hit because E10’s higher ethanol content can burn through rubber.
“That can take time,” he said.
Many fuel retailers including Asda have opted to sell only E10 at their sites. BP has said only some sites will be selling E5, while 200 of Esso’s 1,200 petrol stations are no longer selling the old grade.
According to the figures released on Thursday by the Department for Business, Enterprise and Industrial Strategy, deliveries for road fuel remained steady throughout the summer, averaging around 16,000 litres of petrol and diesel per station each day from mid-June to the end of August.



This constant supply meant that pump stock levels hovered at 40 per cent full, at most rising or falling by one or two percentage points in the same period.
Yet from Sept 1 onwards, forecourts across the UK began to see a steady and pronounced decline in fuel stocks, even before the shortages burst into public attention.
By Sept 16 – a week before panic-buying began – average stock levels had fallen from 40 per cent to 34 per cent. By Thursday Sept 23 – the day of a notorious leaked BP warning that supplies were running low due to a lack of HGV drivers – stock levels were already at 32 per cent.
London and the East of England in particular saw the sharpest pre-panic-buying declines, with stock levels falling by more more than a quarter between Sept 1 and Sept 23.



It was not until Friday, Sept 24 that the stock crisis snowballed, with demand more than doubling. Having remained constant throughout the summer, daily road fuel sales lept from around 15,000 litres per station in the week prior to Sept 24 to more than 35,000 on the Friday.
By Saturday, Sept 25, pumps across the country were empty, with average road fuel stocks reaching a daily low of 15 per cent full.
“Whilst average sales for the last four weeks as a whole were in line with a typical week before the first lockdown (which started March 23 2020), there was a significant change to sales for the five days starting from Friday 24 Sept,” the BEIS document said. “Sales within the sample were up 80 per cent on the Friday and remained substantially above average volumes until the middle of the following week when they began to trend back to normal levels.”

 

MattRat

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The Daily Telegraph is reporting that the shortage of petrol resulted from garages running down their stocks of old E95 petrol for the introduction of E10 petrol from 1st September. Someone then speculated that there were lower level of petrol stocks than normal at garages, and the panic started. It does not explain why diesel stocks were depleted, but it is an interesting theory.

Well, Diesel only started depleting after the panic buying started. Never underestimate humanity's ability to overreact....
 

Sm5

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Still very little fuel in Zone 5/6 of Surrey.


if its not green.. its running short of something..
if anything its getting worse around here, between Croydon,Epsom and Reigate theres virtually nothing, last week there was at least a handful.
 

Simon11

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Tonight, in west London between 7-8pm, it took driving to seven petrol stations to finally find one with petrol.

Definitely not over here, the fuel shortage…
 

MotCO

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Still very little fuel in Zone 5/6 of Surrey.


if its not green.. its running short of something..
if anything its getting worse around here, between Croydon,Epsom and Reigate theres virtually nothing, last week there was at least a handful.

I actually managed to fill up at Oxshott last Sunday; in Bromley, only 2 out of 6 garages had any petrol, but they did have queues!
 

david1212

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At my local Tesco tonight both diesel and standard E10 95RON unleaded but no Momentum 99 E5. For me my normal 3 / 4 week fill up.

I have not seen any queues out onto a road over the last week. The ASDA I pass going to work has had vehicles at the pumps so must have had at least one fuel.
 

swt_passenger

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Since 2003 inflation has been 162% so a basket of goods costing £100 in 2003 would now cost £162
In 2003 my bus and train pass cost £65 per month - it now costs £145 per month

Petrol costs in 2003 were around £1.10 per litre so
if they tracked inflation it would be £1.78 per litre
if they tracked bus and train fare costs then petrol would now cost £2.45 per litre.

So bus and train fares have increased in real terms while petrol costs have actually fallen in real terms
That initial statement should actually be “Since 2003 inflation has been 62%”
 

Dai Corner

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Somebody has produced the following interesting analysis and commentary on historic petrol prices.

Petrol Prices​

Since March 1983, I have kept a detailed record of fuel prices and fuel consumption, spanning eighteen different cars, both privately-owned and company. This table records the movement in fuel prices over that period, taking in each year the first fuel purchase in March. Prices are for leaded 4-star up to 1988, and unleaded thereafter. This roughly corresponds to the point when unleaded took over from 4-star as the standard fuel.

During the period covered by the table, "real" fuel prices fell between 1983 and 1992, encouraging a boom in road traffic, but then rose sharply due to the "fuel duty escalator", resulting in the fuel protest of 2000. At this time, fuel prices had risen by over 50% in five years, which undoubtedly caused much hardship.

The table also does not show peak prices in my local area, which were 224.6p/gallon (49.4p/litre) in October 1990, following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and 390.5p/gallon (85.9p/litre) in June 2000, just before the fuel protest. Around this time I even paid 404.1p/gallon (88.9p/litre) in the Scottish Highlands. It seems that peak prices tend to occur in the autumn, and March, just as winter demand is tailing off, is often a low point in the year.

Even though fuel duty was cut by 1p/litre in March 2011 and has been frozen since, the continued high level of the international oil price led to the March 2013 price being the highest ever in absolute terms, and equalling the record in "real" terms. In the second half of 2014 the oil price effectively halved, although obviously the effect on pump prices was limited by the high fixed element of duty. It fell further during 2015, resulting in the lowest pump prices for some years in the early part of 2016, although it subsequently rallied a little. The March 2016 figure was 10% below that of 1983 in real terms, and showed a 20% fall over the past five years. The cheapest I paid personally was 458.7p/gallon (100.9p per litre), and some prices were reported of 454.1p/gallon (99.9p/litre), with diesel often a little lower still.

The rise in the oil price and fall in sterling following the Brexit referendum result reversed that trend somewhat. Since then, the price has fluctuated, but in real terms remains below its historic highs. Fuel duty has remained frozen since 2011. Due to the coronavirus crisis, the international oil price collapsed after the March 2020 figure, resuting in a low of 103.9p/litre in my local area (April 22, 2020). Since then, it has recovered along with the rest of the world economy, and the March 2021 price was higher than 2020, with it rising further since.

Of the March 2021 price of 123.9p/litre, 82.7p or 67% went to the government (57.95p fuel duty and 24.78p VAT).

For information about current fuel prices in your local area, take a look at PetrolPrices.com.



Petrol Prices 1983-2021
Year
Price per Litre (p)
Price per Gallon (£)
Retail
Prices
Index
Petrol Price
in constant terms
(1983=100)
5-year
% increase *
1983
36.7​
1.670​
83.1​
100.0​
-​
1984
38.7​
1.759​
87.5​
100.0​
-​
1985
42.8​
1.946​
92.8​
104.3​
-​
1986
38.2​
1.737​
96.7​
89.4​
-​
1987
37.8​
1.719​
100.6​
85.0​
-​
1988
34.7​
1.578​
104.1​
75.4​
-5.5​
1989
38.4​
1.746​
112.3​
77.4​
-0.7​
1990
40.2​
1.828​
121.4​
74.9​
-6.1​
1991
39.5​
1.796​
131.4​
68.0​
3.4​
1992
40.3​
1.832​
136.7​
66.7​
6.6​
1993
45.9​
2.087​
139.3​
74.6​
32.3​
1994
48.9​
2.223​
133.1​
77.6​
27.3​
1995
50.9​
2.314​
147.5​
78.1​
26.6​
1996
52.9​
2.405​
151.5​
79.0​
33.9​
1997
57.9​
2.632​
155.4​
84.3​
43.7​
1998
60.9​
2.769​
160.8​
85.7​
32.7​
1999
61.9​
2.814​
164.1​
85.3​
26.6​
2000
76.9​
3.496​
168.4​
103.3​
51.1​
2001
77.9​
3.541​
173.1​
101.8​
47.2​
2002
69.9​
3.178​
174.5​
90.6​
20.7​
2003
77.9​
3.541​
179.9​
98.0​
27.9​
2004
77.9​
3.541​
184.6​
95.5​
25.8​
2005
79.9​
3.632​
190.5​
95.0​
3.9​
2006
88.9​
4.041​
195.0​
103.2​
14.1​
2007
87.9​
3.996​
204.4​
97.4​
25.6​
2008
103.9​
4.723​
212.1​
110.9​
33.4​
2009
89.9​
4.087​
211.3​
96.2​
15.4​
2010
111.9​
5.087​
220.7​
114.8​
40.1​
2011
129.9​
5.905​
232.5​
126.5​
46.1​
2012
134.1​
6.096​
240.8​
126.1​
52.6​
2013
138.9​
6.314​
248.7​
126.5​
33.7​
2014
130.9​
5.951​
254.8​
116.3​
45.6​
2015
109.9​
4.996​
257.1​
96.8​
-1.8​
2016
103.9​
4.723​
261.1​
90.0​
-20.0​
2017
117.9​
5.360​
269.3​
99.1​
-12.1​
2018
115.9​
5.269​
278.3​
94.3​
-16.6​
2019
119.9​
5.451​
285.1​
95.1​
-8.4​
2020
119.9​
5.451​
292.6​
92.7​
9.1​
2021
123.9​
5.632​
296.9​
94.4​
19.2​


* Note: this column represents the % increase over 5 years in the non inflation adjusted petrol price.

(Last updated May 2021)
 

gswindale

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I'd like to know where the price of £1.239 per litre for 2021 has come from - I don't recall seeing any prices below £1.30 for quite sometime now.

Finally got some Diesel this morning at the 3rd garage I tried, and even then it was only the expensive Shell VPower they had £1.609 per litre. Needed to fill up for next week though.

Thankfully not as expensive as the garage in London I read about today £2.93 I think was the quoted price for unleaded - apparently to discourage queuing!
 

Mcr Warrior

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I'd like to know where the price of £1.239 per litre for 2021 has come from - I don't recall seeing any prices below £1.30 for quite sometime now.
Paid £1.189 per litre for unleaded at a Sainsbury's site in Greater Manchester in early March 2021 and it was broadly similar at a Morrison's a full month later at £1.187. It's now (in October 2021) at least £0.15 per litre more expensive.
 

TPO

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Messages
346
I believe there are multiple tanks, yes, and I would expect there to be a guage to show the level of fuel in the tanks, particularly in moderm stations. Taking a reading is referred to as a "tank dip" and would be important not just for knowing how much fuel is in, but also making sure the delivery amount was what was on the documentation (make sure there is no short changing!)

In a previous job, I did a little work with a small number of fuel stations on the motorway network, and they didn't tend to "brim" the tanks on delivery, as it is just "money sitting underground" but would be based from expected demand (at least, that's what the then forecourts manager told me!)

Yeah, with fuel you pay on delivery (or before). You say how much you need and that is what is delivered.

In the past I spent some time at a rail depot with a fueling system, same deal there. We had weekly fuel deliveries and always trying to balance fuel in vs fuel out. It's a lot of cash to outlay if it takes a week to sell then another week (or more) before you are paid for the fuel (unlike other maintenance/services, fuel is usually on 7-day payment terms unless it's ad-hoc in which case someone has to get their credit card out there and then).

That's actually what the issue was which sparked the whole manufactured "crisis"- with fuel deliveries being weekly vice every couple of days, some small forecourt retailers were getting their predictions wrong and running out before the end of the week as they'd erred on the side of buying less.

TPO
 

DelW

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I'd like to know where the price of £1.239 per litre for 2021 has come from - I don't recall seeing any prices below £1.30 for quite sometime now.

Paid £1.189 per litre for unleaded at a Sainsbury's site in Greater Manchester in early March 2021 and it was broadly similar at a Morrison's a full month later at £1.187. It's now (in October 2021) at least £0.15 per litre more expensive.
I didn't pay more than £1.239 until 12th June (first fill up post spring lockdown) or more than £1.30 until 20th July.

Prices charged per litre for each of my fills this year:
16-Jan-21 £1.149
21-Jan-21 £1.169
01-Apr-21 £1.229
12-Jun-21 £1.279
24-Jun-21 £1.299
04-Jul-21 £1.299
20-Jul-21 £1.319
26-Jul-21 £1.329
23-Aug-21 £1.329
12-Sep-21 £1.329
17-Sep-21 £1.369
 

bspahh

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I didn't pay more than £1.239 until 12th June (first fill up post spring lockdown) or more than £1.30 until 20th July.

Prices charged per litre for each of my fills this year:
16-Jan-21 £1.149
21-Jan-21 £1.169
01-Apr-21 £1.229
12-Jun-21 £1.279
24-Jun-21 £1.299
04-Jul-21 £1.299
20-Jul-21 £1.319
26-Jul-21 £1.329
23-Aug-21 £1.329
12-Sep-21 £1.329
17-Sep-21 £1.369

For many years, Ely had expensive petrol when the petrol stations were Tesco, BP and a few independents. Then Sainsburys opened a petrol station, and now its cheaper than most places. The difference is particularly big if you take off the tax and the cost of the fuel itself.
This is what I've paid this year ~ 4 or 5p/litre less than you. Most of these will have been in Ely. A few will have been elsewhere (often the ones where the price doesn't end with a 9).

23-Jan-21 £1.129
07-Mar-21 £1.169
28-Mar-21 £1.209
12-Apr-21 £1.209
19-Apr-21 £1.220
24-Apr-21 £1.209
30-Apr-21 £1.248
05-May-21 £1.225
21-May-21 £1.209
17-Jun-21 £1.249
19-Jun-21 £1.277
23-Jun-21 £1.239
11-Jul-21 £1.249
22-Jul-21 £1.269
04-Aug-21 £1.279
20-Aug-21 £1.279
 
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nlogax

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Still very little fuel in Zone 5/6 of Surrey.


if its not green.. its running short of something..
if anything its getting worse around here, between Croydon,Epsom and Reigate theres virtually nothing, last week there was at least a handful.

Good link, thank you @Sm5 . Have a feeling I'll be needing to use that in coming days.
 

Cowley

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OK once more, can we keep the electric car discussions in the following thread please:


This thread is about the current petrol/diesel shortages. Thanks.
 
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Mojo

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Been past 5 petrol stations this morning. One completely closed, 3 Diesel only, and one functioning fine with a bigger queue than normal but not that bad.
 

birchesgreen

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Well bought 30 quid of E10 just now, i last went just before the chaos started. No queues though there was no diesel v-power.
 

reddragon

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Apparently, petrol stations were emptying their tanks of E5 petrol so they could fill them with the new E10 and this is now considered the main cause of the 'crisis'

What a mess!
 

Darandio

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What a great sales tactic though. Got loads of the older fuel to shift as they need to switchover, get someone prominent in the industry (BP spokesman perhaps?) to exaggerate mention of shortages and incite panic buying to get all of the older fuel removed from the tanks.

But i'm sure nothing like that ever crossed their minds.
 

Trackman

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Well, things could be worse if you're in Lebanon. The power if now off today, plus last week there's been a fighting at petrol stations tanker explosion and someone has died syphoning petrol.
From Sky:
Lebanon's electricity grid has shut down entirely after the country's two main power stations ran out of fuel, according to reports.

The al Zahrani and the Deir Ammar power stations stopped working after supplies of diesel were apparently exhausted, and energy production dropped to below 200 megawatts.



The outage will continue for a few days, at least, Reuters news agency has said, quoting an official source.

At one petrol station near Tripoli, a gunfight broke out with reports of a grenade being thrown. Pic AP

Image: Violence has broken out at petrol stations in the country. Pic AP

"The Lebanese power network completely stopped working at noon today, and it is unlikely that it will work until next Monday, or for several days," the official said.

The thermoelectric plant stopped at Zahrani power station just one day after the Deir Ammar plant stopped on Friday due to a fuel shortage.




The state electric company will try to use the army's fuel oil reserve to operate the power plants temporarily but this will not happen anytime soon, the official said.


It comes as Lebanon struggles with a fuel shortage that has forced many businesses to close and left people relying on the black market.
 

Busaholic

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I'd like to know where the price of £1.239 per litre for 2021 has come from - I don't recall seeing any prices below £1.30 for quite sometime now.
I filled my tank at the local Sainsbury's with unleaded for £1.299 per litre three days ago - double Nectar points too!
 

PeterC

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Filled on Thursday with minimal queueing after passing one garage closed and one diesel only.

Today drove tfrom Bucks to Romford. Passed 4 garages, all with petrol and no queues. Most still had yellow clips on some hoses. Warnings on motorway that Birchanger Services was out if diesel.
 
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