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Poor weather this weekend (02/10)

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londonmidland

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Just a heads up for anyone travelling on the network this weekend; there is the potential for there to be some disruption, subsequently caused by strong gusty winds and heavy rain. All places will receive their fare share of heavy rain.

Currently, the South East will bare the worse of it, with gusts of up to 65mph in exposed spots. Widely 45-55mph inland. Up to 40mm of rain will fall too, with the possibility of flooding in places. See more here

I shall update this thread accordingly as the weather models continue to update.
 
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_toommm_

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I’m guessing there’ll be blanket speed restrictions put in place as we’d usually come to expect?
 

al78

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I’m guessing there’ll be blanket speed restrictions put in place as we’d usually come to expect?
Quite possibly. The trees are still in leaf and the soil is wet from the rain we've had over the last few days with 12 hours of continuous rain forecast to fall tomorrow. so are more vulnerable to being blown down in strong winds.

The summer was notable for weekends of poor weather in the SE, typical this latest storm has to arrive on the weekend as well.
 
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On Saturday night, there's an overnight possession to allow the trees in my garden (not my personal garden but the communal garden of the flats where I live) to be felled since they are close to the boundary and have grown to a size they are in danger of falling onto the tracks/OHLE. It would be ironic (and expensive) if the rain or strong winds meant that the work couldn't go ahead.
 

bramling

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Just a heads up for anyone travelling on the network this weekend; there is the potential for there to be some disruption, subsequently caused by strong gusty winds and heavy rain. All places will receive their fare share of heavy rain.

Currently, the South East will bare the worse of it, with gusts of up to 65mph in exposed spots. Widely 45-55mph inland. Up to 40mm of rain will fall too, with the possibility of flooding in places. See more here

I shall update this thread accordingly as the weather models continue to update.

The weather forecasts seem rather contradictory. BBC and Met Office not alluding to much at all, but I see Netweather is suggesting there could be damaging winds for a time.

My weather station at home hasn’t started flashing yet!
 

brad465

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On Saturday night, there's an overnight possession to allow the trees in my garden (not my personal garden but the communal garden of the flats where I live) to be felled since they are close to the boundary and have grown to a size they are in danger of falling onto the tracks/OHLE. It would be ironic (and expensive) if the rain or strong winds meant that the work couldn't go ahead.
Back in August 2019 this was meant to happen for a section of cutting between Maidstone East and Bearstead, where a landslip risk was highly likely, but high winds postponed the work. After a very wet winter 2019/20, a 20mph speed restriction existed for a very long time for most of the distance between the two stations, although it was longer in distance on the down line, until finally in August this year a 9 day possession, plus some other work during and outside normal line operation, saw foliage cutting widespread with further reinforcement work.
 

yorkie

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The weather forecasts seem rather contradictory. BBC and Met Office not alluding to much at all, but I see Netweather is suggesting there could be damaging winds for a time.

My weather station at home hasn’t started flashing yet!
BBC and Met Office seem to be completely at odds with each other.

I was hoping to go for a walk in the Peak District; for Chesterfield the BBC says "light rain showers and a moderate breeze" with around 34% chance of rain at 1300, while the Met Office for the same time and place says heavy rain with a 90% certainty of precipitation.
 

bramling

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BBC and Met Office seem to be completely at odds with each other.

I was hoping to go for a walk in the Peak District; for Chesterfield the BBC says "light rain showers and a moderate breeze" with around 34% chance of rain at 1300, while the Met Office for the same time and place says heavy rain with a 90% certainty of precipitation.

I’ve noticed with storms BBC has a habit of changing at the last minute, so I wouldn’t be surprised to wake up tomorrow and find the wind forecast is stronger than they’re currently forecasting.

To be fair all three are predicting heavy rain for my area, though the Netweather prediction is considerably less than the other two.

The various “is it going to rain?” phone apps are wonderful - it’s made life a lot easier when doing local walks, but they’re only really viable for the next couple of hours ahead, as they’re based very much on what’s happening *now*.
 

Wyrleybart

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I’m guessing there’ll be blanket speed restrictions put in place as we’d usually come to expect?
Someone at work mentioned this week that Network Rail are devising a major new system of imposing blanket speed restrictions after the unfortunate Carmont incident. Watch this space.
 

Mcr Warrior

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BBC and Met Office seem to be completely at odds with each other.

I was hoping to go for a walk in the Peak District; for Chesterfield the BBC says "light rain showers and a moderate breeze" with around 34% chance of rain at 1300, while the Met Office for the same time and place says heavy rain with a 90% certainty of precipitation.
To be fair, the BBC are predicting quite heavy rain in the Peak District area tomorrow, but maybe just a little later in the afternoon, 93% chance of precipitation by sunset, so probably all depends on how quickly the forecast heavy belt of rain sweeps across the country. :|
 

Aictos

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BBC and Met Office seem to be completely at odds with each other.

I was hoping to go for a walk in the Peak District; for Chesterfield the BBC says "light rain showers and a moderate breeze" with around 34% chance of rain at 1300, while the Met Office for the same time and place says heavy rain with a 90% certainty of precipitation.
As the Met Office specialise in weather forecasts and as the BBC is a TV broadcaster, I rather trust the Met Office then the BBC in much the same way I rather trust the BBC to provide unbiased news then tell me in great detail about the weather.

You could always take a shower proof jacket that is light to carry and a small umbrella in your rucksack least then you be covered either way.
 

Dave W

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The BBC’s weather services are provided by MeteoGroup - a private organisation - so that they don’t match is not a surprise.

My experience is the Met Office tend to provide a pessimistic outlook compared to private providers. As with all of these things I suspect the answer is somewhere in the middle.

DarkSky was the best at predicting precipitation but they were unfortunately purchased by Apple, and I don’t use an iPhone so that was the end of that. I’m sure imitations have popped up since.
 

bramling

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The BBC’s weather services are provided by MeteoGroup - a private organisation - so that they don’t match is not a surprise.

My experience is the Met Office tend to provide a pessimistic outlook compared to private providers. As with all of these things I suspect the answer is somewhere in the middle.

DarkSky was the best at predicting precipitation but they were unfortunately purchased by Apple, and I don’t use an iPhone so that was the end of that. I’m sure imitations have popped up since.

I tend to find the BBC’s forecasts aren’t that accurate, and haven’t been for some while (did they change to Meteo at some point?). I can certainly point to a number of UK holidays where we’ve gone ahead based on a BBC forecast of plenty of sunny days, and the Met Office’s more pessimistic one has been on the money when we actually got cloud or even rain.

We generally look at several forecasts, but it isn’t that easy to make predictions when they all say different things. So we tend to go more off the text, but even that isn’t always terribly accurate.
 

JamesT

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I tend to find the BBC’s forecasts aren’t that accurate, and haven’t been for some while (did they change to Meteo at some point?). I can certainly point to a number of UK holidays where we’ve gone ahead based on a BBC forecast of plenty of sunny days, and the Met Office’s more pessimistic one has been on the money when we actually got cloud or even rain.

February 2018 the BBC switched to Meteo after a tender exercise.
 

800001

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Someone at work mentioned this week that Network Rail are devising a major new system of imposing blanket speed restrictions after the unfortunate Carmont incident. Watch this space.
They already use it
 

Snow1964

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Not sure 30-40mm rain in a day really justifies warnings, it will only cause problems when drains have been left unmaintained and blocked. Good drains should be able to cope with that in one hour, not all day.

Wind could cause more problems with blowing twigs and leaves, but looking like it will only really affect the southern coastal areas, and some of the exposed areas see gales few times a year, so not that unusual.

Of more interest is the high pressure retrogression this year, which could make for a very cold December, one to keep an eye on, will be a problem for those who drive on summer tyres, rather than 3PMSF (3 peak mountain snowflake symbol) all season or winter tyres.
 

Bald Rick

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I tend to find the BBC’s forecasts aren’t that accurate, and haven’t been for some while (did they change to Meteo at some point?)

Agreed. More than once I have been promised a 0% chance of rain in a given hour, and been rained on.

It seems that MeteoGroup’s use of weather radar is a little sketchy. Right now the whole of Southern England is under heavy rain cloud, it’s belting down here, but the chance of rain for the next hour is only 85%...
 

bramling

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Agreed. More than once I have been promised a 0% chance of rain in a given hour, and been rained on.

It seems that MeteoGroup’s use of weather radar is a little sketchy. Right now the whole of Southern England is under heavy rain cloud, it’s belting down here, but the chance of rain for the next hour is only 85%...

Same here. The current rain radar shows pretty much the whole of GB covered in rain (quite rare to see actually). At this moment essentially only the northern tip of Scotland is avoiding it. It’s rained non-stop here since about 1100. Yet the BBC forecast it for light showers, 81% chance of rain in the next two hours.

Not much wind thusfar though - no rattling from my window frames so far today!

One thing though, studying the aforementioned rain radar it doesn’t generally seem massively heavy. So any flooding I’d say would result from the rain sticking around in one place.

EDIT: as of 1530 3.2mm rain showing on my weather station so far today. Looks like Hertfordshire might have avoided the worst of it, but the next couple of hours look to be heavier. Not massive compared to the 28mm one day earlier this week.
 
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Taunton

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Someone at work mentioned this week that Network Rail are devising a major new system of imposing blanket speed restrictions after the unfortunate Carmont incident. Watch this space.
The Carmont slip was due to having nobody on the maintenance team who appeared to understand civil engineering, plus some decidedly dubious operating principles, so if this follows it looks like some HQ backside covering. The railway ought to be the greatest centre of earthworks stability understanding in the country, they have so much of it.
 

Puppetfinger

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Windy.com is very good with an animated map. You can choose multiple layers, and also select the forecast model you want to use for certain weather phonemena.
 

pitdiver

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Where I am it's been persistently raining since about 1100hrs. Not torrential but persistent. However looking at a Weymouth webcam the weather down there seems pretty atrocious.
 

bramling

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Where I am it's been persistently raining since about 1100hrs. Not torrential but persistent. However looking at a Weymouth webcam the weather down there seems pretty atrocious.

Yes the worst bit seems to be working its way gradually north-eastwards, and looks to be reaching the London area … about now.

I’m expecting that 3.2mm on my weather station to climb considerably in the next couple of hours. Still doesn’t seem to be *that* bad though, and it’s coming very much as a downpour which does confirm there’s little wind at the moment.

I must say this year has been one of the most depressing years in terms of weather I can remember. The south in particular has seen a lot of grey sky, and there’s been a big trend for “locked in” weather patterns where we have seen the same weather for weeks at a time, and generally poor weather at that. Even when we’ve had high pressure something seems to have conspired to spoil it. What with the Covid restrictions it’s been pretty depressing. I’m sure I’m not the only one who can’t wait for this rancid year to end! I think it’s fair to say it’s actually been worse than 2020 for many.
 
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philosopher

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Yes the worst bit seems to be working its way gradually north-eastwards, and looks to be reaching the London area … about now.

I’m expecting that 3.2mm on my weather station to climb considerably in the next couple of hours. Still doesn’t seem to be *that* bad though, and it’s coming very much as a downpour which does confirm there’s little wind at the moment.

I must say this year has been one of the most depressing years in terms of weather I can remember. The south in particular has seen a lot of grey sky, and there’s been a big trend for “locked in” weather patterns where we have seen the same weather for weeks at a time, and generally poor weather at that. Even when we’ve had high pressure something seems to have conspired to spoil it. What with the Covid restrictions it’s been pretty depressing. I’m sure I’m not the only one who can’t wait for this rancid year to end! I think it’s fair to say it’s actually been worse than 2020 for many.
What has been so frustrating for us of those in the south this year is the knowledge that much of the UK has had a good or least decent summer.

I guess the Scots and those in northern England must feel like this in most years though!

That said the weather today does not seem that bad, just a typically wet day that you expect to occur a few times in October.
 

Ianno87

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Been steady rain in Cambridge most of the day, but basically no wind. Easy enough cycling my kid in the cargo bike to his friends birthday party!
 

londonbridge

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Been to Portsmouth for football, had an advance on the Southern 17:19 to Croydon which was cancelled. Spoke to a Southwestern lady who put me on a Waterloo train which has got as far as Havant and has now been diverted due to flooding, so it’s going non-stop to Woking then Clapham and Waterloo, instead of stopping at Rowlands Castle, Petersfield, Liss, et al.
 

Mcr Warrior

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What has been so frustrating for us of those in the south this year is the knowledge that much of the UK has had a good or least decent summer.

I guess the Scots and those in northern England must feel like this in most years though!
Yep. Been "Manchester Sunshine" most of the day, up here, today. In other words, grey and drizzly. Back to normal and certainly nothing all that unusual. :|
 
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