Potential hot weather disruption 11th-14th August

[MikeWM]

There's an amber warning for (more!) hot weather for much of England from Thursday through to Sunday.

BBC Weather has mid-30s each day; this is for London:



and there are various 36s dotted around across central/southern England.

Seems likely this is going to cause various travel disruption - it is less extreme than the 40C we got in July but is going to last rather longer. Obviously we have various strikes on Saturday too, which may complicate matters.

I don't see any warnings out yet on NR etc. though, which seems to be leaving it rather bit late to point out there may be issues.

 

[800001]

There's an amber warning for (more!) hot weather for much of England from Thursday through to Sunday.

BBC Weather has mid-30s each day; this is for London:

View attachment 119020

and there are various 36s dotted around across central/southern England.

Seems likely this is going to cause various travel disruption - it is less extreme than the 40C we got in July but is going to last rather longer. Obviously we have various strikes on Saturday too, which may complicate matters.

I don't see any warnings out yet on NR etc. though, which seems to be leaving it rather bit late to point out there may be issues.

Based on the current forecast, there are no speed limits planned to be implemented.

 

[Snow1964]

Unlike the previous heatwave temperatures are only expected to reach low 30s with a few local areas hitting mid 30s. However is expected to be 4 days Thursday-Sunday

Previous heatwave was high 30s (locally nearer 40c) but only 2 days long.

So although longer, mid 30s is fairly common (happens few days, in many years) in SE England so not exceptional

For those who think in Fahrenheit nearer 90 max than 100 max

 

[Magdalia]

Unlike the previous heatwave temperatures are only expected to reach low 30s with a few local areas hitting mid 30s. However is expected to be 4 days Thursday-Sunday

Previous heatwave was high 30s (locally nearer 40c) but only 2 days long.

So although longer, mid 30s is fairly common (happens few days, in many years) in SE England so not exceptional

For those who think in Fahrenheit nearer 90 max than 100 max

32C is 90F.
35C is 95F.

Here in the Fens the current forecast is for 33C tomorrow, 34C on Friday and 35C on both Saturday and Sunday.

In my long experience anything over 32C/90F in East Anglia is exceptional, and 4 consecutive days very exceptional.

Also, in my recent experience there is a bias in the forecasts of very high temperatures, so I'm expecting the peak to be higher than 35C.

 

[GordonT]

Unlikely that the network will be totally unscathed so flagging up the possibility of disruption would seem to be a sensible course.

 

[Snow1964]

There are 2 elements, the air temperature and amount of sun.

The lower air temperature than before means cables won’t sag as much, and fewer items should melt.

We are now approaching mid August, so sun is lower than July thus weaker, and the sunlight hours are bit less. This should mean items in direct sunlight like rails, or getting reflected light off windows etc should not be able to heat up as much.

 

[MikeWM]

So although longer, mid 30s is fairly common (happens few days, in many years) in SE England so not exceptional

It isn't exceptional now it seems, though between 1961 and 2010 it only ever got over 34C *anywhere* in the UK in 7 years out of 50, nevermind 4 days running in the same place.

(source : https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binari.../interesting/2020/2020_06_august_heatwave.pdf)

Actually, the August 2020 heatwave seems a fairly similar event (if a bit longer-lasting), but at the time that was considered a very unusual week.

We are now approaching mid August, so sun is lower than July thus weaker, and the sunlight hours are bit less. This should mean items in direct sunlight like rails, or getting reflected light off windows etc should not be able to heat up as much.

This is indeed the case, and hopefully that will make for significantly fewer issues than we'd see if the same thing happened in say mid-July.

 

[td97]

The Glossop and Hadfield line has an EMU restriction until 14 August meaning DMUs will substitute, due to the inadequate OLE on this line being unable to cope with the heatwave.
The call at Glossop on the inbound journey to Manchester will be omitted as 150s cannot keep to time.

 

[MikeWM]

NR now reporting there will be some hot weather speed restrictions on SWR for each of the next four days. I suspect they won't be alone soon.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

The 13th is a strike day for many TOC's and no doubt, the 14th will see these TOC's running reduced services anyway

 

[GB]

NR now reporting there will be some hot weather speed restrictions on SWR for each of the next four days. I suspect they won't be alone soon.

There will be some restrictions for Anglia as well. The latest I have heard is (subject to change)...

Saturday and Sunday between 1300 and 1700
No WA services
Minimal services on GE and C2C

Likely to be some freight restrictions during same periods.

 

[High Dyke]

EMR have posted twitter advice about avoiding travel on Saturday.

The Met Office has issued an amber weather warning from Thursday 11 August – Sunday 14 August. Train services may be affected.

https://twitter.com/EastMidRailway/status/1557390893677772800?t=NyBkxo3d_n4hX4aJHUTSAQ&s=19

 

[DelayRepay]

EMR have posted twitter advice about avoiding travel on Saturday.

https://twitter.com/EastMidRailway/status/1557390893677772800?t=NyBkxo3d_n4hX4aJHUTSAQ&s=19

It's odd because the Tweet says:

#EMRUpdate: Fans of @NFFC @LCFC @swfc @dcfcofficial
we are expecting very high temperatures this weekend for these reasons we advise you not to travel by rail. For further information; https://eastmidlandsrailway.co.uk

But when you go to their homepage and click through to the Travelling During Hot Weather This Weekend page it says

The Met Office has issued an amber weather warning from Thursday 11 August – Sunday 14 August. We continue to work with our partners at Network Rail to assess the potential impact of hot weather on our services. At this stage it is not envisaged that wide-spread speed restrictions will be applied on our network however, this will continue to be monitored over the coming days and we will, if required, amend our timetable accordingly. You are strongly advised to only travel if necessary.

So they are advising people not to travel by rail due speed restrictions that are not currently envisaged? And why does this advise only apply to fans of four football clubs? Won't the hot weather affect people going for a day out somewhere, or to the shops? (There is another tweet, not directed at football fans, that recommends taking a bottle of water)

 

[Grecian 1998]

So they are advising people not to travel by rail due speed restrictions that are not currently envisaged? And why does this advise only apply to fans of four football clubs? Won't the hot weather affect people going for a day out somewhere, or to the shops? (There is another tweet, not directed at football fans, that recommends taking a bottle of water)

I assume this is simply because football fans can travel (generally for short periods of time) in very large numbers. A broken down / stopped train which is rammed to the gunnels could get very unpleasantly hot very quickly.

On Saturday there's Arsenal v Leicester, Derby v Barnsley and Sheffield Wednesday v Charlton. On Sunday Nottingham Forest v West Ham. 3 of EMR's 'big' teams are at home so you could briefly see rammed local trains between 1300-1500 and 1700-1800 - the shoulder for the hottest period of the day. If anything goes wrong, conditions on board could be extremely hot and unpleasant.

Leicester seems less likely to be a major issue - fewer fans will travel to away games and I'd expect the aircon on mainline services to be more resilient. Although given the problems last month, I can understand the desire for caution.

The sheer numbers also makes a difference. EMR may also ferry Mansfield fans to Leyton Orient, Notts County fans to Boreham Wood, and Chesterfield fans to Aldershot, but in considerably smaller numbers (sorry Notts County fans).

Sheffield United are away to Middlesbrough on Sunday so their fans would likely use XC northbound - so not EMR's problem.

Shoppers or day trippers will be far more spread out and less likely to crowd a specific service except on lines with infrequent services.

If anything does go wrong, they can always say they told you not to travel.

 

[Kite159]

EMR might also be trying to get passengers to stay away on Saturday due to overcrowding caused by strike action.

 

[MikeWM]

This strikes me as a rather odd one currently on NR:

A speed restriction at Ely means trains in this area may be delayed by up to 20 minutes or revised.
This is expected until 12:00.

Additional Information
Network Rail have imposed a speed restriction in the Ely area, because of the hot weather.

Eh? It will be rather hotter *after* 1200 than it currently is. Sounds rather like a 'convenient excuse' to me, not least because there have been problems here for most of the week now.

 

[liamf656]

EMR might also be trying to get passengers to stay away on Saturday due to overcrowding caused by strike action.

There won’t be any ticket acceptance, as per last time, however that doesn’t stop people from cancelling their tickets and buying brand new ones to use on EMR. Hopefully it isn’t too crowded as it wasn’t that bad last time

 

[MP393]

Manchester - Hadfield/Glossop closed until 19:00 at least (even with the DMU restriction)

 

[mandub]

Manchester - Hadfield/Glossop closed until 19:00 at least (even with the DMU restrictions

Closed tomorrow 16:00-19:00 as well.

 

[_toommm_]

The last Northern service from Piccadilly to Macclesfield was also operated by a pair of 150s this evening. Is that due to interworking with the Glossop line, or a shortage of 323s in the right place?

 

[liamf656]

The last Northern service from Piccadilly to Macclesfield was also operated by a pair of 150s this evening. Is that due to interworking with the Glossop line, or a shortage of 323s in the right place?

Yes that last working usually comes into Piccadilly from Hadfield then forms the last Macclesfield service, hence the use of the 150s

 

[Lost property]

Unlikely that the network will be totally unscathed so flagging up the possibility of disruption would seem to be a sensible course.

Your post allows me to ask a question please.

Living about 3-4 miles, as the crow flies from the WCML I am used to hearing night traffic and the noise is certainly not an issue for me. Most of the time the noise is just about audible in fact

This morning however, with the weather conditions being perfect for the transmission of sound, throughout the night there has been a significant increase in the number of movements on the WCML.

Would I be correct therefore in thinking, that, with the combination of heat / weather and industrial action, the increase in traffic is related to contingency planning to alleviate potential disruption ?.

 

[ValleyLines142]

There are 2 elements, the air temperature and amount of sun.

The lower air temperature than before means cables won’t sag as much, and fewer items should melt.

We are now approaching mid August, so sun is lower than July thus weaker, and the sunlight hours are bit less. This should mean items in direct sunlight like rails, or getting reflected light off windows etc should not be able to heat up as much.

With the exception of Devon/Cornwall, where the same stretch of line (in between Par and Plymouth) has had delays twice in the last three days due to buckled rails! (Monday bringing services to a standstill from 5pm onwards!).

 

[MikeWM]

This strikes me as a rather odd one currently on NR:

...and the same thing again today.

A speed restriction at Ely means trains in this area may be delayed by up to 20 minutes or revised.
This is expected until 13:00.

Additional Information
Network Rail have imposed a speed restriction in the Ely area, because of the hot weather.

Very strange.

 

[baz962]

A few Thameslink and EMR cancelled due to a fire near the track. I'm looking at Bedford to st pancras. I'm guessing due to the hot weather.

 

[dk1]

...and the same thing again today.



Very strange.

Been on/off for a while now. Didn’t even make it out of Norwich last night thanks to a Lynn bringing the wires down near Waterbeach.

 

[liamf656]

A few Thameslink and EMR cancelled due to a fire near the track. I'm looking at Bedford to st pancras. I'm guessing due to the hot weather.

It was between Luton and Luton Airport in the 4 foot. I believe staff on a service attempted to extinguish it

 

[dk1]

As well as the 20mph imposed Ely North Jcn to Ely Dock Jcn there is now a possibility the Soham line will be closed to all traffic due to heat. This route & through to Stowmarket was also shut during last months heatwave.

 

[MP393]

Closed tomorrow 16:00-19:00 as well.

A temporary fix has been sorted for the OHL this afternoon so fingers crossed the line will remain open to traffic (with still a block to electric traffic in place)

Time will tell of course.

 

[TheBigD]

As well as the 20mph imposed Ely North Jcn to Ely Dock Jcn there is now a possibility the Soham line will be closed to all traffic due to heat. This route & through to Stowmarket was also shut during last months heatwave.

There's currently a liner in the Sohan to Ely section, with a passenger a few signals behind, so not closed yet. 1 liner waiting in the two way goods at Peterborough and another not left Ipswich currently.