Public transport use in COVID-19

[telstarbox]

Here is the graph from DfT data, updated to the 8 November. Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic

 

[squizzler]

It is good to have these charts in a separate thread although I would have liked to have seen a comparison with usage of private transport such as bicycles and motorcars.

I understand the little descending tail at the end represents data sufficiently recent that all sales figures have not yet been tallied. This is unfortunate as it always gives a little kick of negativity at the end. The metric of 'tickets purchased' is also such a broad brush that it is very difficult to gauge the 'health' of the railways by just one simple graph. It would be simplistic even if it represented the number of passengers actually riding trains at present, which those forum contributors in revenue protection dispute.

 

[telstarbox]

Not quite - the graph only covered up to where data has been fully tallied. There is another week available, but that always gets revised upwards the following week.

I can add the motor vehicle line for comparison:

Blue shows All Motor Vehicles and Orange shows Rail Tickets Sold.

 

[Philip]

Is it likely that rail usage and ticket sales will be back to normal levels by Spring?

If not then what does it mean for ticket offices and travel centres?

 

[Logan Carroll]

No-ones checking tickets on trains, I guarantee the real number of passengers is much higher.

 

[telstarbox]

Fare evasion existed before Covid though. As DOO services around London carry a disproportionate number of the passenger total compared to the number of trains running, it might not be that much higher than the sales data suggests.

 

[jtuk]

Is it likely that rail usage and ticket sales will be back to normal levels by Spring?

If not then what does it mean for ticket offices and travel centres?

If they allow us to travel in comfort and do stuff at the other end, then my rail usage will return to pre-March usage instantly, and I'd guess most people's will as well. Whether commuter levels do so is another question, although those loadings going down a bit wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing

 

[squizzler]

Is it likely that rail usage and ticket sales will be back to normal levels by Spring?

If not then what does it mean for ticket offices and travel centres?

The way you pose the question is regrettably not the general public's idea of buying travel services going forward, not as far as trains are concerned at least. I think physical tickets and places that sell them are going to be increasingly knackered. The reboot of rail traffic needs innovative and easy to understand means of paying for train travel and it is no secret to those that read the posts I favour 'year zero' fares reform.

Hopefully the sales space in railway stations and those who make their livelihood that way has a bright future through diversification. From my days on the community Rail scene I remember being told how ridiculous it is that ticket offices are not allowed to sell anything other than tickets, even though many of the stations that are on community lines contain neither a cafe or WHSmiths, not are close to alternative local businesses.

 

[Logan Carroll]

Fare evasion existed before Covid though. As DOO services around London carry a disproportionate number of the passenger total compared to the number of trains running, it might not be that much higher than the sales data suggests.

I’m saying that fare evasion is pretty much the norm during covid.

if you’re getting off at an station without ticket barriers why would you pay for a ticket for a journey you have already made.

 

[david1212]

Is it likely that rail usage and ticket sales will be back to normal levels by Spring?

If not then what does it mean for ticket offices and travel centres?

Which year were you thinking of ?

Regardless with working from home now established I do not think the annual number of passengers will reach the levels of 2019 for a long time if ever.

The number of tickets sold though may well be back much closer to 2019 levels sooner as in proportion more journeys will be on single and return tickets rather than multi-journey ones.

As for ticket offices and travel centres if the trend towards online purchasing continues these still see a decline in demand compared to 2019. At larger stations staff levels will be cut while at smaller stations ticket offices will close so they will become unmanned.

 

[yorksrob]

That said, if we see a decline of season ticket commuting and a recovery of leisure travel, any decline in the use of booking hall facilities is likely to be less pronounced as leisure travel tends to be more one-off "turn up and buy" in nature.

 

[deltic]

I’m saying that fare evasion is pretty much the norm during covid.

if you’re getting off at an station without ticket barriers why would you pay for a ticket for a journey you have already made.

So rail passengers are inherently dishonest - rather sad if true

Scotland's rail numbers are even more depressing given their tighter lockdowns - indexed against passenger numbers in March

 

[Crossover]

No-ones checking tickets on trains, I guarantee the real number of passengers is much higher.

Not entirely true - many staff are now back to revenue duty again and indeed, I was on a last train out of Leeds to one of my local stations on Sunday and the guard did a walk through checking (not that there were many to check!)

 

[NoMorePacers]

I've noticed in particular a higher proportion of tickets being sold on trains through my own observation (although on quite a number of the lines I've been on in the past 2 months there are no ticket facilities at several stations).

 

[squizzler]

Not quite - the graph only covered up to where data has been fully tallied. There is another week available, but that always gets revised upwards the following week.

I can add the motor vehicle line for comparison:

Blue shows All Motor Vehicles and Orange shows Rail Tickets Sold.

The interesting thing about comparing the relative fortunes of motoring and rail travel during the pandemic is that the motoring scene must be eating itself to maintain its relatively strong showing.

There are stories on these forums of people acquiring cars and motorbikes to join the motoring scene. This is not actually representative of an increase in the number of motorcars in circulation. In fact they must be in decline because the sales figures are so low. It is indicative of the early days of rail privatisation where the assets are bing sweated: the motoring community is making better use of the limited number of cars in circulation by allocating them from those who don't need them as much to those who have a greater need. Anybody with an old banger they want rid of has had an ideal opportunity to sell it to a key worker, and anecdotally, many have done so. This is a good thing as it reduces the number of cars needed to provide a given amount of utility. It does however mean the average age of the UK motor fleet will increase whilst that of the rail fleet will be declining on the back of new vehicle deliveries.

I argue that that more efficient reallocation of the UK's car pool accords with the idea of 'peak car'. Far from sales bouncing back, the motoring scene might well continue in the direction of 'sweating its assets' even when the pandemic is over by increased uptake of car sharing schemes and the like. Especially as people might wish to hold off for more affordable electric cars which will presumably dominate the market well before the 2030 deadline.

 

[telstarbox]

In case it wasn't clear, the graph doesn't show vehicle sales - it's a summary of traffic counts

 

[squizzler]

I appreciate that, my point is the impressive public participation in motoring since “lockdown Mk1” is achieved mainly by those within that community allocating cars more efficiently between themselves rather than buying new ones. There must be an aggregate decline of the number in circulation if attrition through crashes and breakdowns exceeds purchases.

Doing more with fewer cars reduces the contribution of motoring to the exchequer, even before electric cars come in, and this reduces the hold of motoring over government policy.

 

[Mintona]

Are rail services being reduced next year? I’ve heard talk of a 20% reduction but I can’t find anything concrete.

 

[Horizon22]

Are rail services being reduced next year? I’ve heard talk of a 20% reduction but I can’t find anything concrete.

Think there's some discussion here regarding Dec '20 timetable. Each TOC doing it slightly differently; I know GWR is increasing to almost the Dec '19 timetable again, yet Southeastern is running essentially a Saturday service. Northern is running a reduced service on some routes.

Regarding Christmas, there's already a lot of talk about long-distance trains being sold out, although many fares are not yet available. Plus the inevitable challenge of explaining engineering works booked 12-18 months in advance.

Travelling at Christmas: What you need to know

How will UK transport be affected by the five-day relaxation of Covid restrictions over Christmas?

www.bbc.co.uk

As is standard every year, there are no train services running on Christmas Day and only a very limited number of services running on a small number of routes on Boxing Day.

But for the days passengers can travel, they are being urged to book ahead and avoid busy times due to the combination of reduced capacity and the limited travel window. And some operators will prevent passengers from boarding without a pre-booked ticket.

There have already been reports of advance tickets selling out or going for exorbitant prices.

 

[Mintona]

Think there's some discussion here regarding Dec '20 timetable. Each TOC doing it slightly differently; I know GWR is increasing to almost the Dec '19 timetable again, yet Southeastern is running essentially a Saturday service. Northern is running a reduced service on some routes.

Regarding Christmas, there's already a lot of talk about long-distance trains being sold out, although many fares are not yet available. Plus the inevitable challenge of explaining engineering works booked 12-18 months in advance.

Travelling at Christmas: What you need to know

How will UK transport be affected by the five-day relaxation of Covid restrictions over Christmas?

www.bbc.co.uk

Thanks for the reply, what I’d actually heard was that the December timetable was only going to be in place for a few weeks before services were reduced in January. It’s probably a load of rubbish.

 

[DB]

Not entirely true - many staff are now back to revenue duty again and indeed, I was on a last train out of Leeds to one of my local stations on Sunday and the guard did a walk through checking (not that there were many to check!)

Northern are certainly checking. For example, of the three Northern trains I went on yesterday, there were ticket checks on two of them which is at least as high as normal. All barriers also in operation.

Also went on one TPE train. No check on that - don't know what their current policy is.

 

[NoMorePacers]

Also went on one TPE train. No check on that - don't know what their current policy is.

TPE have been checking onboard since August. They were one of the first operators to restart onboard checks.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

I’m saying that fare evasion is pretty much the norm during covid.

if you’re getting off at an station without ticket barriers why would you pay for a ticket for a journey you have already made.

Brighton had a one-way system for many months where arriving passengers were directed to exits either side of the gateline. I actually overheard a loud youth on his phone saying ‘nah, Bro, you won’t need one, you don’t go through no barriers’. I’m sure word soon got around in the summer months.
Anyone know of other examples where a one-way system was devised that took no account of the potential for fare evasion?

 

[Kite159]

Brighton had a one-way system for many months where arriving passengers were directed to exits either side of the gateline. I actually overheard a loud youth on his phone saying ‘nah, Bro, you won’t need one, you don’t go through no barriers’. I’m sure word soon got around in the summer months.
Anyone know of other examples where a one-way system was devised that took no account of the potential for fare evasion?

Didn't Peterborough have a one way system where you exited via the side gate instead of going via the barriers?

I would imagine there was a good number of tickets sold to Hove/Preston Park/London Road from Brighton for fare dodgers to bypass the barriers at Brighton, assuming they were heading to a station without barriers

 

[telstarbox]

Here is the updated graph (now showing 7-day moving averages) and rail usage is right down to 25% now, although road usage also dropped to the low 70s% in the same week.

Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic

 

[squizzler]

According to Apple Maps data, the return of rail travel enquiries is much more rapid than that from lockdown mk1. More of a step change this time than a gradual ramping up as previously.

Sorry I cannot grab the graph and post it here, they seem to do something clever in the webpage so that the chart is not an actual image, but I am sure the official figures will show this sudden jump when the data is compiled.

From that point I speculate a peak at 50% around Christmas, a dip to one third ticket sales in January and February, and then the ratchet will kick in as the vaccine and good weather take hold.

 

[JonathanH]

According to Apple Maps data, the return of rail travel enquiries is much more rapid than that from lockdown mk1. More of a step change this time than a gradual ramping up as previously.

Sorry I cannot grab the graph and post it here, they seem to do something clever in the webpage so that the chart is not an actual image, but I am sure the official figures will show a sudden jump back to around 30% when the data is compiled.

Screenshot as described in quoted text above

 

[yorksrob]

According to Apple Maps data, the return of rail travel enquiries is much more rapid than that from lockdown mk1. More of a step change this time than a gradual ramping up as previously.

Sorry I cannot grab the graph and post it here, they seem to do something clever in the webpage so that the chart is not an actual image, but I am sure the official figures will show a sudden jump back to around 30% when the data is compiled.

Well, that's certainly good news !

 

[telstarbox]

Not so good this week, with the lowest rail use since the first lockdown (data up to 29 Nov):

 

[Dave91131]

Didn't Peterborough have a one way system where you exited via the side gate instead of going via the barriers?

I would imagine there was a good number of tickets sold to Hove/Preston Park/London Road from Brighton for fare dodgers to bypass the barriers at Brighton, assuming they were heading to a station without barriers

To answer the question about Peterborough, it did have a one way system in late September which was the last time I used the station.

Entry was via the main entrance with barriers and footbridge at the south end, and exit was via the ramp bridge at the north end then out of the side gate - with no form of ticket checking on any of the occasions I used it.

As a side note, the one way system failed to cater for those needing to use the station toilets. The toilets on platforms 4 & 5 were closed "due to social distancing" leaving those on platform 1 as the only ones open - irrespective of whether one was entering or leaving the station, the only way to access these was to go against the one way system which usually resulted in station staff pouncing like a cat on a mouse upon those heading for the facilities.

I witnessed one lady reply "I can squat down against the wall instead if you want" and couldn't help but chuckle.