Quarantine

[Tetchytyke]

How is anyone still alive there?

Because we have a quarantine!

 

[Bletchleyite]

having put up with the last three weeks in Bolton under severe lockdown (no hospitality venues open) we have our limited freedom back now...and what a relief. I'd much rather have full "freedom" in a small area (like the Isle of Man) than limited/restricted over a large area.

Yes, I'm totally with you on that.

 

[bramling]

Yes, I'm totally with you on that.

Thing is, how would it work? You could attempt it on a GB-wide basis, and I say GB as you’d have to exclude NI due to the amount of cross-border traffic there.

That would cause problems at my place for a start as we have quite a few staff who commute in from either ROI or NI (don’t ask why - I think it’s madness - but people do).

If we started compartmentalising beyond that then it just wouldn’t work as the moment people travel for work then it would start spreading.

I spent most of March to August stuck in my home area, and have no desire to repeat that.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Thing is, how would it work? You could attempt it on a GB-wide basis, and I say GB as you’d have to exclude NI due to the amount of cross-border traffic there.

Theoretically we could operate strict border quarantine and go for elimination for the island of GB (plus the island of Ireland if the RoI agreed to it). It would be difficult at this stage now, though. It certainly couldn't be done on a County basis; that was more an analogy to express my agreement with the IoM's policy.

 

[bramling]

Theoretically we could operate strict border quarantine and go for elimination for the island of GB (plus the island of Ireland if the RoI agreed to it). It would be difficult at this stage now, though. It certainly couldn't be done on a County basis; that was more an analogy to express my agreement with the IoM's policy.

Way too late for that now. It would have had to have been done pretty much by February at the latest, and I don’t think there would have been the public buy-in at that point.

Plus would there have been the resources to manage and enforce proper quarantining?

As a strategy it also banks on a vaccine. If there isn’t one then it’s just kicked the can down the road.

Having said that, it wouldn’t have bothered me personally if we’d taken that line, and if it had worked then yes it would have been preferable to a wasted year.

 

[Howardh]

The only way to make GB a covid-free zone would be another long lockdown, and probably far more restrictive to get cases down to zero. All overseas travel would be prohibited, unless all those that arrived were put in secure quarantine - basically like a jail for a fortnight.

Then when we go back to "normal" as in the Isle of Man, those travel restrictions would continue, probably for years rather than months. So no holidays, no international sport etc.

It is doable, but do we really want to live like that for an unspecified time?

 

[Bletchleyite]

It is doable, but do we really want to live like that for an unspecified time?

I would rather be unable to travel abroad for the foreseeable future than to have my daily life in the UK restricted. That's an easy, easy choice.

I do agree the time to do it was on the original lockdown, though. Another 3-6 weeks and we'd have been there. Then support the airlines to a controlled shutdown and promote the heck out of the British tourist industry. Ferries would carry freight without people, i.e. trailers without tractor units.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

having put up with the last three weeks in Bolton under severe lockdown (no hospitality venues open) we have our limited freedom back now...and what a relief. I'd much rather have full "freedom" in a small area (like the Isle of Man) than limited/restricted over a large area.

Just think of all the things I can safely do right now on the Isle of Man that I can't do here....example...date a stranger*!

OK, it's possible as long as you are in a bar, tabled served, keep socially distant, don't have close conversation, shake hands, kiss, more.....

But that is meeting someone from another household - not permitted for many at present! You can't call the date your 'social bubble' because you are only allowed one bubble - forever. Better make sure the date has long-term potential before you decide on them as your bubble. I am surprised we don't have regulations requiring bubbles to be officially registered.

The only way to make GB a covid-free zone would be another long lockdown, and probably far more restrictive to get cases down to zero. All overseas travel would be prohibited, unless all those that arrived were put in secure quarantine - basically like a jail for a fortnight.

Then when we go back to "normal" as in the Isle of Man, those travel restrictions would continue, probably for years rather than months. So no holidays, no international sport etc.

It is doable, but do we really want to live like that for an unspecified time?

I would rather be unable to travel abroad for the foreseeable future than to have my daily life in the UK restricted. That's an easy, easy choice.

I do agree the time to do it was on the original lockdown, though. Another 3-6 weeks and we'd have been there. Then support the airlines to a controlled shutdown and promote the heck out of the British tourist industry. Ferries would carry freight without people, i.e. trailers without tractor units.

I could live with a permanent GB or a UK and Ireland bubble. Strictly monitored self-isolation or even compulsory quarantine (as per the Isle of Man cases discussed). Far preferable to the mish-mash of ever changing restrictions we have at the moment (in England).

 

[Bantamzen]

The only way to make GB a covid-free zone would be another long lockdown, and probably far more restrictive to get cases down to zero. All overseas travel would be prohibited, unless all those that arrived were put in secure quarantine - basically like a jail for a fortnight.

Then when we go back to "normal" as in the Isle of Man, those travel restrictions would continue, probably for years rather than months. So no holidays, no international sport etc.

It is doable, but do we really want to live like that for an unspecified time?

In a word, no. Why the hell would we want to isolate ourselves from the world, kicking the can down the road whilst tanking a very significant part of our economy? It is pure madness as New Zealand and the IoM will be finding out in the months and years ahead.

I would rather be unable to travel abroad for the foreseeable future than to have my daily life in the UK restricted. That's an easy, easy choice.

I do agree the time to do it was on the original lockdown, though. Another 3-6 weeks and we'd have been there. Then support the airlines to a controlled shutdown and promote the heck out of the British tourist industry. Ferries would carry freight without people, i.e. trailers without tractor units.

That's your wish, but as I've said to you before, its so very easy to speculate other people's jobs away. As it happens a few months before the pandemic, I was seriously considering moving out of the public sector for a job at Jet2 as their offices are at LBA (15 minutes away by bus from me) & in Leeds (the same commute as I had). I decided against it for the time, but companies like this are key parts of local economies and feed a lot of jobs in the area.

And besides all that, have you considered two major problems with shutting down international travel? One the cost and availability of UK holidays can be much more expensive than going abroad, so you would basically be telling people with less cash "tough luck" on holidays. Secondly, tourism into this country also brings in much needed revenue. I know you think this lovely, parochial British-only travel sounds nice, but it is not in the least bit practicable.

 

[Howardh]

But that is meeting someone from another household - not permitted for many at present! You can't call the date your 'social bubble' because you are only allowed one bubble - forever. Better make sure the date has long-term potential before you decide on them as your bubble. I am surprised we don't have regulations requiring bubbles to be officially registered.



I could live with a permanent GB or a UK and Ireland bubble. Strictly monitored self-isolation or even compulsory quarantine (as per the Isle of Man cases discussed). Far preferable to the mish-mash of ever changing restrictions we have at the moment (in England).

To get to that stage - a permanent GB bubble, we would have to go through extreme lockdown first, again that's doable but could the economy cope AND just how long would it take to clear covid? OK< given that the economy would recover quicker when we are back to normal than in current restrictions could be a trade-off.

However, we have so many ports of entry, unlike New Zealand it would be very difficult to isolate fully, without even considering refugees crossing the channel, so that isolation could break down and make the sacrifices worthless very quickly. Unless the republic did likewise, we would be cutting off Northern Ireland. Then again, the Channel islands and the Isle of Man are cut off as it is.

 

[adc82140]

Ferries would carry freight without people, i.e. trailers without tractor units.

Wouldn't work. I've watched how the cross channel ferry ports work. A lorry is loaded every 15 seconds or so. The unaccompanied freight is at a rate of a trailer every 5 minutes.

No deal Brexit worst case planning has a days long backlog of trucks just based on a 1 to 2 minute document check. So imagine what would happen if there was a 5 minute delay on each one. And that's without thinking about the logistics of where to put all these trailers while they wait to be loaded, time taken to attach and detach tractor units etc

 

[Tetchytyke]

It is pure madness as New Zealand and the IoM will be finding out in the months and years ahead.

You keep saying this, but what do you think is "madness" about a strong quarantine enabling local normality? I'm genuinely curious, because sitting here I'd say it was working.

The pubs and cafes and restaurants are full. Workplaces are normal. Shopping is normal.

Regular travel for business is problematic but it is consistently so and you're not at the mercy of quarantine rules changing whilst you're away. But how much business travel is happening elsewhere anyway, really? Brits can't go to the US at all, as an example.

Hotels are struggling, and that is the big down side, but that's happening everywhere else too anyway. Premier Inn are talking about shutting 50 hotels. It turns out most people don't want to stay in hotels in a pandemic, even if legally they are allowed to.

"It can't last forever" is, of course, perfectly true. But I'm not sure why people are using that to argue we should just pretend the virus doesn't exist and plough on regardless.

I'll tell you what, a strong quarantine early on has allowed us to return closer to normality sooner. And, in practical terms, what we have in terms of quarantine is not really very different from what the UK has, but we don't have any of the masks or rules of 6 or any of that nonsense.

It is quite a bit easier to achieve it on an island of 83,000 people, mind.

 

[bramling]

You keep saying this, but what do you think is "madness" about a strong quarantine enabling local normality? I'm genuinely curious, because sitting here I'd say it was working.

The pubs and cafes and restaurants are full. Workplaces are normal. Shopping is normal.

Regular travel for business is problematic but it is consistently so and you're not at the mercy of quarantine rules changing whilst you're away. But how much business travel is happening elsewhere anyway, really? Brits can't go to the US at all, as an example.

Hotels are struggling, and that is the big down side, but that's happening everywhere else too anyway. Premier Inn are talking about shutting 50 hotels. It turns out most people don't want to stay in hotels in a pandemic, even if legally they are allowed to.

"It can't last forever" is, of course, perfectly true. But I'm not sure why people are using that to argue we should just pretend the virus doesn't exist and plough on regardless.

I'll tell you what, a strong quarantine early on has allowed us to return closer to normality sooner. And, in practical terms, what we have in terms of quarantine is not really very different from what the UK has, but we don't have any of the masks or rules of 6 or any of that nonsense.

It is quite a bit easier to achieve it on an island of 83,000 people, mind.

It’s okay *if* an effective form of vaccination occurs, but it’s placing total reliance on that happening, as well as on the integrity of the quarantine.

What would have happened if the welders hadn’t drawn attention to themselves, and one of them had Covid and managed to pass it on? With no distancing and no immunity that would be a problem, and odds are sooner or later it will likely happen.

If vaccination doesn’t happen then there is no exit strategy from the quarantining until such time as the virus naturally dies out, which could be a very long time with the rest of the world actively prolonging that process.

 

[Bantamzen]

You keep saying this, but what do you think is "madness" about a strong quarantine enabling local normality? I'm genuinely curious, because sitting here I'd say it was working.

The pubs and cafes and restaurants are full. Workplaces are normal. Shopping is normal.

Regular travel for business is problematic but it is consistently so and you're not at the mercy of quarantine rules changing whilst you're away. But how much business travel is happening elsewhere anyway, really? Brits can't go to the US at all, as an example.

Hotels are struggling, and that is the big down side, but that's happening everywhere else too anyway. Premier Inn are talking about shutting 50 hotels. It turns out most people don't want to stay in hotels in a pandemic, even if legally they are allowed to.

"It can't last forever" is, of course, perfectly true. But I'm not sure why people are using that to argue we should just pretend the virus doesn't exist and plough on regardless.

I'll tell you what, a strong quarantine early on has allowed us to return closer to normality sooner. And, in practical terms, what we have in terms of quarantine is not really very different from what the UK has, but we don't have any of the masks or rules of 6 or any of that nonsense.

It is quite a bit easier to achieve it on an island of 83,000 people, mind.

But where can you travel to? A couple of rocks in the Channel Islands? Woophee do! You see here's the problem, viruses have been around for hundreds of millions of years at least, and that means they don't care much about political decisions to try and suppress or eradicate them.

And so at some point your island will have to figure out how to reopen to the rest of the world, a world exposed to the virus, and potentially carrying it even if they have enough immunity for it not to have an effect on them. Failing that, you are on your own forever.

 

[Tetchytyke]

And besides all that, have you considered two major problems with shutting down international travel? One the cost and availability of UK holidays can be much more expensive than going abroad, so you would basically be telling people with less cash "tough luck" on holidays. Secondly, tourism into this country also brings in much needed revenue.

I can go on holiday any time I want. I have to quarantine for 2 weeks when I get back. How's that any different to what you have?

I really do think more robust quarantines earlier would have saved the UK a lot of pain. I think allowing sun holidays to Spain without quarantine was a huge mistake and we have seen that as the rates have shot up again. We've also seen it as they've had to impose quarantines rapidly- and cackhandedly- leaving people stranded abroad.

I think easing rules too soon will be worse in the long run, because it just drags things on.

What do you think Johnson's Quarantine Roulette is doing for the tourist trade?

 

[Bletchleyite]

What do you think Johnson's Quarantine Roulette is doing for the tourist trade?

The impression I have is that people are going and largely ignoring it, as despite the fines it's not being enforced.

 

[Tetchytyke]

But where can you travel to? A couple of rocks in the Channel Islands? Woophee do!

But where can UK residents go without quarantine in either or both directions, or without costly private Covid tests? As far as I can tell your list is Sweden, mainland Greece, and that's about it.

The impression I have is that people are going and largely ignoring it, as despite the fines it's not being enforced.

Indeed.

What would have happened if the welders hadn’t drawn attention to themselves, and one of them had Covid and managed to pass it on? With no distancing and no immunity that would be a problem, and odds are sooner or later it will likely happen.

It's a worry, which is why they got jailed.

I think people will break quarantine but, mostly, they either won't or they won't do it in public. I think most people are mostly law-abiding though, at least when they know there's a good chance of getting caught. It is a small island here!

If too many people flout it, there's always the option of going back to complete closure, which also focuses a few minds.

 

[Bantamzen]

But where can UK residents go without quarantine in either or both directions, or without costly private Covid tests? As far as I can tell your list is Sweden, mainland Greece, and that's about it.

Its far more than that, and way more than residents on your island can.

 

[island]

Its far more than that, and way more than residents on your island can.

It actually isn’t – as of yesterday morning, the list of countries that anyone in the UK could visit any part of with no quarantine, restriction, or similar at either end was Sweden, Italy, San Marino, and the Vatican.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Its far more than that, and way more than residents on your island can.

The Evening Standard reports the list as Sweden, Italy and San Marino. They also list Germany (but not if you're from northern England, Wales or NI), Greece (but not the Greek islands) and Gibraltar (but not if you're from Wales).

Any more for any more? And is the list worth the rule of six and facemasks for all?

 

[Bantamzen]

Name the countries where you don't need to quarantine in either direction, or pay for a private Covid test before travel. I'm interested.

The Evening Standard reports the list as Sweden, Italy and San Marino. They also list Germany (but not if you're from northern England, Wales or NI), Greece (but not the Greek islands) and Gibraltar (but not if you're from Wales).

Any more for any more? And is the list worth the rule of six and facemasks for all?

Here's a better question, name the countries you can travel to from your island?

 

[Tetchytyke]

Here's a better question, name the countries you can travel to from your island?

I can go to Guernsey

I suppose my point is that our government made the quarantine call and stuck with it. It worked and so we have domestic freedom. It is at the expense of unrestricted travel. Although I don't travel to Sweden every day, I do go out every day.

You and others say this strategy is "madness" and we need to "live with Covid". But in the UK there are two countries in the world where you have completely unrestricted travel (four if you really want to argue San Marino and Vatican City are not effectively just extensions of Italy), and yet you have strict social distancing rules and rising infection rates. I'd say that, actually, we are doing a better job of "living with Covid" because we're not trying to pretend it doesn't exist.

I'd say that the fact that most countries in the world- including the UK- impose quarantines shows their benefit. The issue is that, as always, Boris just does it cack-handedly.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

The Evening Standard reports the list as Sweden, Italy and San Marino. They also list Germany (but not if you're from northern England, Wales or NI), Greece (but not the Greek islands) and Gibraltar (but not if you're from Wales).

Any more for any more? And is the list worth the rule of six and facemasks for all?

Apparently you will need a test to go to Sardinia.

 

[Bantamzen]

I can go to Guernsey

I suppose my point is that our government made the quarantine call and stuck with it. It worked and so we have domestic freedom. It is at the expense of unrestricted travel. Although I don't travel to Sweden every day, I do go out every day.

You and others say this strategy is "madness" and we need to "live with Covid". But in the UK there are two countries in the world where you have completely unrestricted travel (four if you really want to argue San Marino and Vatican City are not effectively just extensions of Italy), and yet you have strict social distancing rules and rising infection rates. I'd say that, actually, we are doing a better job of "living with Covid" because we're not trying to pretend it doesn't exist.

You may have a temporary domestic freedom, but as you admit you are more or less stuck on your island. But as I have said before, viruses do not care political solutions. And they do not care for human made boundaries. I am sorry to say but your island has two choices, to accept that the virus will come back to you, or that you have to live in complete isolation.

 

[Tetchytyke]

You may have a temporary domestic freedom, but as you admit you are more or less stuck on your island.

And you are more or less stuck on yours, of course. Which is kinda the point.

I am sorry to say but your island has two choices, to accept that the virus will come back to you, or that you have to live in complete isolation.

It has, there are people on the island who have caught it when off the island. But we do not have it in the community. No doubt it will keep coming back with travellers, that is where our tracing system comes in.

We are no different to the rest of the world, which has largely put borders up in response to the virus, with no signs those borders are coming down. Borders came down briefly and it all went wrong very quickly.

UK residents have completely free travel to just two countries, and it is rumoured Italy is about to drop off that list too.

I'm not sure what you are trying to argue. Of course border restrictions can't last forever. But, for now, they work for us. How did trying to pretend the virus doesn't exist work out for the UK?

It's a shame your government didn't have more courage in their convictions in June/July, because you wouldn't be in the mess you are in now if they had.

 

[Richard Scott]

And you are more or less stuck on yours, of course. Which is kinda the point.

And some of us are fed up with it especially those of us who have realised this is a futile battle. This virus is going nowhere and many of the politicians around the world have backed themselves into a corner they cannot get out of without losing face. Either we live like this for many years or we realise that we have to get on with life and deal with it like people did years ago.

 

[Bantamzen]

And you are more or less stuck on yours, of course. Which is kinda the point.



It has, there are people on the island who have caught it when off the island. But we do not have it in the community. No doubt it will keep coming back with travellers, that is where our tracing system comes in.

We are no different to the rest of the world, which has largely put borders up in response to the virus, with no signs those borders are coming down. Borders came down briefly and it all went wrong very quickly.

UK residents have completely free travel to just two countries, and it is rumoured Italy is about to drop off that list too.

I'm not sure what you are trying to argue. Of course border restrictions can't last forever. But, for now, they work for us. How did trying to pretend the virus doesn't exist work out for the UK?

It's a shame your government didn't have more courage in their convictions in June/July, because you wouldn't be in the mess you are in now if they had.

And our government is going to have come to the realisation that trying to hide away from it by forcing quarantines isn't going to work, and is going to be ignored by more and more people.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Either we live like this for many years or we realise that we have to get on with life and deal with it like people did years ago.

Quarantines and local lockdowns were common during the 1918-1920 Spanish Flu pandemic. And "people years ago" wouldn't, in all honesty, be travelling very far anyway. They certainly wouldn't be flying halfway across the world for £250. When my parents emigrated to Australia in 1980 the air fare was £1000. It is still £1000. £1000 in 1980 is the equivalent of £4300 now.

Maybe that's the solution. You can go on holiday, but you have to go by paddle steamer

In other news, it seems one of the jailed welders did have Covid.

 

[Crossover]

In other news, it seems one of the jailed welders did have Covid.

Do you have a source for this please? I have just been catching up on a bit of news and whilst there has been a positive case on the IoM, it doesn't sound to be one of the welders

Coronavirus: Visitor to Isle of Man tests positive for Covid-19

A person visiting on compassionate grounds tested positive while self-isolating, the government says.

www.bbc.co.uk

A visitor to the Isle of Man has tested positive for coronavirus while self-isolating after arrival, the government has said.

The non-resident, who entered the country on compassionate grounds, developed symptoms in the mandatory 14-day isolation period, a spokesman said.
He said the entire household was now self-isolating and contact tracing was being carried out.
Chief Minister Howard Quayle said there were "no signs" the virus had spread.

 

[Richard Scott]

Quarantines and local lockdowns were common during the 1918-1920 Spanish Flu pandemic. And "people years ago" wouldn't, in all honesty, be travelling very far anyway. They certainly wouldn't be flying halfway across the world for £250. When my parents emigrated to Australia in 1980 the air fare was £1000. It is still £1000. £1000 in 1980 is the equivalent of £4300 now.

Maybe that's the solution. You can go on holiday, but you have to go by paddle steamer

In other news, it seems one of the jailed welders did have Covid.

It still went around the world, though, just more slowly. This is the point, if it doesn't go through the population we'll carry on like this for years until it does. It's not going anywhere, why can't people see that? It's not a storm that you can ride out by shutting up shop, it's still there when you try and reopen.