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Russia invades Ukraine

ainsworth74

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His version of events after being picked up at Baikonur also raise eyebrows a bit. I know in the past the a few state owned media companies have said how wonderful his portrayal of Russia is and the claim he was picked up and given a stern telling off then being let go does make you wonder quite what is in the background.
Yes I did rather wonder if it wasn't a bit convenient that he get let off with a $50 fine especially considering the less than friendly relations currently between Russia and the UK! I can't help but wonder if there wasn't an element of "I was just filming a video about the wonderful Russian space programme and I've made many other videos about how wonderful Russia is! See here..." to it. Might explain the seven hours or whatever it was he was in custody. Few hours to go up the chain of command, bit of time to think about it, then come back down the chain of command with the decision to just slap his wrist. Then again maybe he is just an FSB asset! :lol:
I'm constantly surprised he doesn't get more issues with going on about "wonderful Soviet x", especially in ex-SSRs. It seems a bit tone deaf.
Yeah it is interesting. I've always assumed it's a mixture of there not being that many English speakers out there to know what he's saying and having enough charm and Russian to sweet talk his way out of it!
Very True. Could they be deploying them simply because they haven’t got much else left?
They're using ancient Soviet kit for that sort of stuff. See the use of AS-4 Kitchen missiles against the shopping centre. Designed in the 1960s to sink US Aircraft Carriers. Got plenty of them to wheel out of storage and chuck at shopping centres or other large targets. The fancy kit like Hypersonic missiles they'll be holding back in case they need them against NATO. It's why we're starting to see Russian precision fires reduce (or them using old ill-suited kit). This stuff is expensive and hard to replace and they'll need it against NATO.
 
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DustyBin

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They're using ancient Soviet kit for that sort of stuff. See the use of AS-4 Kitchen missiles against the shopping centre. Designed in the 1960s to sink US Aircraft Carriers. Got plenty of them to wheel out of storage and chuck at shopping centres or other large targets. The fancy kit like Hypersonic missiles they'll be holding back in case they need them against NATO. It's why we're starting to see Russian precision fires reduce (or them using old ill-suited kit). This stuff is expensive and hard to replace and they'll need it against NATO.

That's what I was questioning, but if they do have plenty left then fair enough!
 

takno

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That's what I was questioning, but if they do have plenty left then fair enough!
Sometimes it's less about how many are left and more about how many of the remaining ones will make it out of the launcher before they explode
 

TheEdge

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That's what I was questioning, but if they do have plenty left then fair enough!

They do, but only of older anti ship missiles that struggle to hit the maternity ward door from inside the ward.

They probably have as many functional hypersonic missiles as they do T-14s and Su-57s...
 

DustyBin

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They do, but only of older anti ship missiles that struggle to hit the maternity ward door from inside the ward.

They probably have as many functional hypersonic missiles as they do T-14s and Su-57s...

As per my earlier post I wouldn't be surprised if it's all propaganda....

Wait? What? They've managed to get a T-14 to work??!

Two worked briefly on Victory Day but haven't been seen since!
 

Yew

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Two worked briefly on Victory Day but haven't been seen since!
The Pretorian guard is there to protect the Emperor of Rome, not to be killed by the Goths on the Rhine Frontier.
 

TheEdge

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Wait? What? They've managed to get a T-14 to work??!

Only at the most important Red Square parades, which is the only thing that matters.

As per my earlier post I wouldn't be surprised if it's all propaganda....

Course it is, I've heard more than a few claims the Kinzhal is just a fancy air launched version of the Iskander. At this point anything referring to any post-Soviet equipment is probably unreliable.

Two worked briefly on Victory Day but haven't been seen since!

They are all waiting in the Donbass to freely cruise into Kyiv/Odessa/Lyiv/Warsaw/Berlin as NATO crumbles.
 

Trackman

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He also uploaded a video in which he stated that the Russian embassy (for no clear reason) arranged hospital treatment for him when he was ill in Serbia, which was slightly odd and makes him look like a little bit of a Russian asset! I wouldn't have let him into Ukraine just at the moment myself.
There's something definitely iffy going on. I could be wrong, I don't think he has officially denounced the invasion. He does mention this in the last video but it I think it was to appease a local.
OK, top secret Russian managed installation and managed to film the Russian 'Space Shuttles' then carted off to a nearby town and fined £30 or whatever and released a few hours later. Surely if you've been into a building that is top secret, well sort of top secret- and you had a GoPro, surely they would have wanted the memory card and detained you until they found it.
--
In other news, the first grain ship has left early this morning from Ukraine. I assume it's safely (well..) in international waters now. Mines were the biggest worry.
Oh, Putin has been going on about the risks of nuclear war today as well *yawn* - hang on, wasn't it you that put your nuclear deterrent on 'combat alert'?
 

gingerheid

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There's something definitely iffy going on.
It would be fair to say that the possibility something is going on is neither 0% nor 100%. If my suspicions were wrong I would apologise for being incorrect, not for being paranoid!

However the purpose of the video appeared to be:

- Say "wonderful Soviet" 1000 times
- Say "but don't try and come and see for yourself"
 

DustyBin

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The Pretorian guard is there to protect the Emperor of Rome, not to be killed by the Goths on the Rhine Frontier.

I believe the Pretorian Guard were actually capable of fighting though!

Course it is, I've heard more than a few claims the Kinzhal is just a fancy air launched version of the Iskander. At this point anything referring to any post-Soviet equipment is probably unreliable.

The timing of the announcement is somewhat convenient, what with HIMARS blowing up ammunition dumps etc. at their leisure……

They are all waiting in the Donbass to freely cruise into Kyiv/Odessa/Lyiv/Warsaw/Berlin as NATO crumbles.

There are people who actually believe this, a couple of them even “contribute” to this thread!
 

TheEdge

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OK, top secret Russian managed installation and managed to film the Russian 'Space Shuttles' then carted off to a nearby town and fined £30 or whatever and released a few hours later. Surely if you've been into a building that is top secret, well sort of top secret- and you had a GoPro, surely they would have wanted the memory card and detained you until they found it.

I thought that as I was watching it, the sudden realisation of "wait, they didn't confiscate devices and memory cards", I don't know if he's really in the pocket of the Russian's but I think they probably value him as a useful idiot more than anything.

If you want to see full on "YouTuber who has drunk the Kremlin Kool-Aid" try iEarlGrey. He was a relatively successful game streamer who got a job with Wargaming in St Petersburg, moved to Russia, lost that job but stayed there. He is now uploading daily videos as a "neutral" investigator within Russia, whose only sources happen to be RT, Sputnik, Telegram and the Russian government. I'm convinced the FSB have him by the balls and his residential and marriage visas are reliant on him posting this content. Watch him next to B&B and you'll see why I don't think B&B is in the same league.

In other news, the first grain ship has left early this morning from Ukraine. I assume it's safely (well..) in international waters now. Mines were the biggest worry.

Time to start hitting civilian infrastructure targets of military importance in the port of Odessa again then...

Oh, Putin has been going on about the risks of nuclear war today as well *yawn* - hang on, wasn't it you that put your nuclear deterrent on 'combat alert'?

Got to rattle that sabre again, the war isn't going too well.

I believe the Pretorian Guard were actually capable of fighting though!

In the vein quick reminder its long been suspected Spetznaz were more equivalent to the Paras or Royal Marines in quality than the SAS.

The timing of the announcement is somewhat convenient, what with HIMARS blowing up ammunition dumps etc. at their leisure……

I presume they really don't like this situation where they can't just hide behind a Smerch and "win" through superior artillery.

There are people who actually believe this, a couple of them even “contribute” to this thread!

At the start of February you could believe it, to a point. The published info on the T-14, T-90, BMPT Terminator, Su-57 and so on and so on did paint a worrying picture, the T-14 still does to some extent as if (although now a massive if) its as good as claimed it is a powerful vehicle. The Russian forces looked good, but that veil has collapsed and now they are a joke. In a conventional war with NATO they'd collapse, quickly.
 

najaB

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… the T-14 still does to some extent as if (although now a massive if) its as good as claimed it is a powerful vehicle.
The question really isn't how good it is but rather if they can produce them in any number. A handful of mega-tanks aren't going to win a war.
 

TheEdge

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The question really isn't how good it is but rather if they can produce them in any number. A handful of mega-tanks aren't going to win a war.

Well quite. Individually their new vehicles, if they are as good as published would be easily an equal to modern NATO, but as you say the numbers matter too.
 

ainsworth74

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There's something definitely iffy going on. I could be wrong, I don't think he has officially denounced the invasion. He does mention this in the last video but it I think it was to appease a local.
OK, top secret Russian managed installation and managed to film the Russian 'Space Shuttles' then carted off to a nearby town and fined £30 or whatever and released a few hours later. Surely if you've been into a building that is top secret, well sort of top secret- and you had a GoPro, surely they would have wanted the memory card and detained you until they found it.
I suppose, trying to be fair, it's not uncommon for Urbexers to get caught and still manage to get footage out as they swap out SD cards regularly so they only tend to lose the last few minutes before getting caught. I do think he also mentioned he was going to be trying to hide any SD cards if they were caught so I wouldn't rule it out. Though I do agree that if they got their equipment back (their post release video was on a phone it looked like so perhaps they didn't), were let go with a slapped wrist it's a bit convenient! Though I'm also not sure it's that top secret (more embarrassing/discouraged just like any other abandoned buildings often are) and they're also not the first to get inside, here's another group who made it in:


(Click "CC" and enable subtitles they've got full English subtitles)

They also do a better job as they get inside the shuttles themselves and don't get caught!!

That being said it is all a bit convenient and just a little bit cosy. It's more the fact he was doing it post-Ukraine that raised my eyebrow. If this had happened in 2021 say for instance I wouldn't be as surprised if it was just a slapped wrist and let go.
I thought that as I was watching it, the sudden realisation of "wait, they didn't confiscate devices and memory cards", I don't know if he's really in the pocket of the Russian's but I think they probably value him as a useful idiot more than anything.
I think that's probably it. I doubt he's in their active employ they just appreciate him being an idiot. He was living it large in Kyiv just prior to the war breaking out. Even did a video from the Russian - Ukraine border days before the war started. Idiot? Yes. Agent? Not so much.

That being said I watched his videos when was out in the Donbass a few months before the war started and it's been depressing seeing places like Lysychansk and Bakhmut which he did videos of showing friendly people, friendly children and all the rest of it now being pummelled by Russian bombardment.
If you want to see full on "YouTuber who has drunk the Kremlin Kool-Aid" try iEarlGrey. He was a relatively successful game streamer who got a job with Wargaming in St Petersburg, moved to Russia, lost that job but stayed there. He is now uploading daily videos as a "neutral" investigator within Russia, whose only sources happen to be RT, Sputnik, Telegram and the Russian government. I'm convinced the FSB have him by the balls and his residential and marriage visas are reliant on him posting this content. Watch him next to B&B and you'll see why I don't think B&B is in the same league.
I've always wanted to visit Russian, and indeed still do. But I think you'd have to be mad to move there. Hopefully that fella will get himself out eventually assuming he isn't actually believing what he's saying.

However the purpose of the video appeared to be:

- Say "wonderful Soviet" 1000 times
- Say "but don't try and come and see for yourself"
I think a lot of that is just his patter. "Wonderful Soviet Mural!", "Wonderful Soviet Cafe!", "Look! A wonderful Soviet railway station!" and on and on.

All of the above being said he does make interesting videos (especially as he seems fairly fluent in the language which make it more interesting) but he definitely is somewhat suspicious so I think he's one of those characters where you have to be a bit cautious taking everything at face value!
A handful of mega-tanks aren't going to win a war.

Well quite. Individually their new vehicles, if they are as good as published would be easily an equal to modern NATO, but as you say the numbers matter too.

Though NATO would be wise not to crow too much. We've gone quite a fair way down the high quality, tiny numbers road ourselves. I would suggest perhaps too far in some respects though particularly in ammunition and other consumables. I worry that we've eroded our capacity to manufacture sufficient quantities and indeed don't have sufficient stockpiles of munitions for anything other than a very short sharp conflict. If we couldn't knock Russia out quickly what would we do in a protracted conflict.

I feel like what we've seen is reassuring though that the quantitative edge remains extremely in our favour and having just spent themselves so hard in Ukraine we have at least got a window of opportunity to make good any deficiencies in numbers. Assuming the bean counters in places like HM Treasury and Governments are willing to do what needs to be done!
 

najaB

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I suppose, trying to be fair, it's not uncommon for Urbexers to get caught and still manage to get footage out as they swap out SD cards regularly so they only tend to lose the last few minutes before getting caught. I do think he also mentioned he was going to be trying to hide any SD cards if they were caught so I wouldn't rule it out.
I rather suspect that the Russian authorities would be more... robust in their search than those in the UK or USA.
 

Chingy

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I know it's not directly related to the Ukraine conflict but I'm not sure Pelosi visiting Taiwan is a clever move in the current, tense, global world.

That's effectively being seen as giving China a big push towards Russian hands. Does the US have the capabilities to keep both Russia and China under control, along with that mad man in North Korea?
 

najaB

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I know it's not directly related to the Ukraine conflict but I'm not sure Pelosi visiting Taiwan is a clever move in the current, tense, global world.
Actually, this is exactly the right time to do it. Lets China know that the USA isn't being totally distracted by the situation in Ukraine.
Does the US have the capabilities to keep both Russia and China under control, along with that mad man in North Korea?
US military doctrine has long been that they need to be able to fight two simultaneous wars on different sides of the world. And events in Ukraine are barely taxing US military resources - they're sending lots of munitions, but very little in the way of actual hardware or troops.
 

DustyBin

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Actually, this is exactly the right time to do it. Lets China know that the USA isn't being totally distracted by the situation in Ukraine.

I have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand I don’t think China should be allowed to dictate who can and can’t visit Taiwan, but on the other hand it seems that literally nobody thought it was a good idea, except Pelosi herself who often comes across as a bit of a nutter. She backed herself into a corner really by announcing that she may visit, knowing exactly how China would respond. Personally I’m not convinced it was worth it (and I’m clearly not alone in this regard).

US military doctrine has long been that they need to be able to fight two simultaneous wars on different sides of the world. And events in Ukraine are barely taxing US military resources - they're sending lots of munitions, but very little in the way of actual hardware or troops.

The US is in a different league to everybody else militarily, there’s no escaping the fact. That said I’m sure they’d be happy for their European NATO allies to deal with the situation in Ukraine, allowing them to keep an eye on China. I don’t blame them to be honest; it’s one of those things Trump was right about, in principle anyway. Europe has an unhealthy over reliance on the US for security which needs addressing. Meeting NATO spending targets isn’t an unreasonable expectation in my opinion, and if we can do it so can the other members, especially the likes of Germany.
 

Yew

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Europe has an unhealthy over reliance on the US for security which needs addressing.
It's worth remembering that this was a position directly encouraged by the US in the wake of the Suez Crisis.
 

ainsworth74

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It's worth remembering that this was a position directly encouraged by the US in the wake of the Suez Crisis.
Perhaps but I rather doubt they intended it go quite as far as it has...
 

brad465

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I agree. It’s been apparent for some time now that the US no longer favours such an arrangement, and nor should Europe.
While not a like-for-like replacement, the admission of Finland and Sweden into NATO, including their strong military forces, will help improve Europe's own defence prospects.
 

DynamicSpirit

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I agree. It’s been apparent for some time now that the US no longer favours such an arrangement, and nor should Europe.

Agreed. Quickly googling NATO stats, it appears the population of NATO countries is 950 million, of which 330 million live in the USA. Obviously, population isn't an exact measure of military capability, but if most countries have similar standards of living, it should be a good measure of military potential. And if 2/3 of NATO's population doesn't live in the USA, it seems pretty odd for that 2/3 to keep relying on the 1/3 who do.
 

Cloud Strife

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I have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand I don’t think China should be allowed to dictate who can and can’t visit Taiwan, but on the other hand it seems that literally nobody thought it was a good idea, except Pelosi herself who often comes across as a bit of a nutter. She backed herself into a corner really by announcing that she may visit, knowing exactly how China would respond. Personally I’m not convinced it was worth it (and I’m clearly not alone in this regard).

It may have been a plot by the US intelligence services. They sent Pelosi out there, knowing that the Chinese won't be able to stop themselves taking the bait, and so they can get an idea of what kind of thing the Chinese leadership will order in return. I also suspect that there was an element of motivating the Taiwanese out there, as their defence policy has been a bit messy in the last few years.

But I think both the Chinese and the Americans know fine well that neither side is going to start WW3 over Taiwan. The Chinese are quite happy to sit and wait for the US to fall before taking Taiwan, and they see history in centuries rather than in 4/5 year political cycles.

especially the likes of Germany.

There is a very interesting and relevant point that all the rumours appear to be true: Germany does not have a functioning army to any practical extent.

That's effectively being seen as giving China a big push towards Russian hands.

I wouldn't read too much into it. China will have seen just how much damage is being done to the Russian military through sanctions alone, and the last thing China wants is for the USA to say "right lads, production out of China now, let's move wholesale into Vietnam and other Asian countries that don't like China very much". They will send a few planes into Taiwanese airspace, they will send a few boats into Australian waters, but this is par for the course.

Anyway, the more interesting thing is that we're now seeing the effects of American-Ukrainian cooperation. It's now very clear that Ukraine is wrecking targets at will within the occupied territories, and Russia is absolutely powerless against HIMARS and other precision-guided systems. The Russians are lobbing missiles and causing random war crimes, but they are doing nothing meaningful. It seems clear now that Ukraine is content to simply lay waste to Russian bases in the occupied territories, and to make things even worse for Russia, it seems that the American intelligence is essentially able to tell them when and where to fire. A military train got wrecked a couple of days ago going from Crimea to Kherson, and should more HIMARS systems turn up, it will be nearly impossible for Russia to move forwards without getting their supply lines cut off instantly.
 

najaB

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A military train got wrecked a couple of days ago going from Crimea to Kherson, and should more HIMARS systems turn up, it will be nearly impossible for Russia to move forwards without getting their supply lines cut off instantly.
Apparently the Russians managed to blow that up by themselves. Set fire to the ammunition with smoke generators.
 

Trackman

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To try and be somewhat on topic again, in a recent video on his other channel, he tried to re-enter Ukraine by train recently, but they wouldn't let him in due to the Russian visa in his passport.

I've watched this, interesting freight sidings too.. if you get my gist.
Apparently the Russians managed to blow that up by themselves. Set fire to the ammunition with smoke generators.
I read about that too, no goats involved!
I wouldn't read too much into it. China will have seen just how much damage is being done to the Russian military through sanctions alone, and the last thing China wants is for the USA to say "right lads, production out of China now, let's move wholesale into Vietnam and other Asian countries that don't like China very much". They will send a few planes into Taiwanese airspace, they will send a few boats into Australian waters, but this is par for the course.
Exactly. Great post.
They must shake their do-dah's in the coming days to show disapproval of the visit, rather than do nothing - if this makes sense.
 

Cloud Strife

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Exactly. Great post.
They must shake their do-dah's in the coming days to show disapproval of the visit, rather than do nothing - if this makes sense.

And what a surprise, they've just announced five days of exercises. The US knows fine well that China would do this, China knows that the US knows, and they can get on with acting like peacocks while no harm actually comes to anyone. The Americans know that the Chinese (well, Asians in general) need to save face, which is why they'll be allowed to flex their muscles without coming to any risk of war.

Apparently the Russians managed to blow that up by themselves. Set fire to the ammunition with smoke generators.

Totally and completely bonkers. How do they want to win this war if they can't even resupply Kherson without blowing themselves up?

Still, I agree with what the Western analysts are saying. Kherson is make-or-break for Ukraine, and if they can take it, Russia is in deep trouble. They might not get a second chance to take it, but what is interesting is that Russia now appears to be redeploying troops to the south. Ukraine, and I would argue that Europe as a whole, badly needs a decisive victory in the next two months in order to put immense pressure on Russia.

(incidentally, the propaganda from the Polish government about gas storage appears to have been just that: propaganda. The truth is that Poland has around 14% of its winter needs in storage. This winter is going to suck, given my house is heated with gas and there's no fireplace but bookshelves)
 

DustyBin

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It may have been a plot by the US intelligence services. They sent Pelosi out there, knowing that the Chinese won't be able to stop themselves taking the bait, and so they can get an idea of what kind of thing the Chinese leadership will order in return. I also suspect that there was an element of motivating the Taiwanese out there, as their defence policy has been a bit messy in the last few years.

But I think both the Chinese and the Americans know fine well that neither side is going to start WW3 over Taiwan. The Chinese are quite happy to sit and wait for the US to fall before taking Taiwan, and they see history in centuries rather than in 4/5 year political cycles.

The main risk (as I see it) is an increase in Chinese support for Russia’s war in Ukraine; the posturing in the Taiwan Strait itself is just that.
 

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