Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

[Yew]

Have you ever considered the recent reported cases where people are adamant that full or part vaccination is not for them and cite personal freedom. The trouble with that reasoning is that it completely overlooks the chance that should these people become carriers, they have the ability to infect other people.

Perhaps if the Government followed through on it's promises, rather than continually moving the goalposts; people would be more willing to trust its vaccine policy?

 

[kristiang85]

The PC is at 6pm with Johnson, Whitty and Vallence.

I will be interested to see what graphs the conjure up to justify this. I will also make sure I don't have any heavy objects nearby that I might throw.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Perhaps if the Government followed through on it's promises, rather than continually moving the goalposts; people would be more willing to trust its vaccine policy?

I am not sure if what you say means that the Government are not reacting to situations that develop. The delta version of the virus with its said 60% more infectionary scenario was not there when the "goalposts" were dealing with the earlier versions, so once this greatly increased chance of infection came to be heard from "the science", it would have been foolhardy in the extreme not to update the Government advice.

 

[Failed Unit]

I am not sure if what you say means that the Government are not reacting to situations that develop. The delta version of the virus with its said 60% more infectionary scenario was not there when the "goalposts" were dealing with the earlier versions, so once this greatly increased chance of infection came to be heard from "the science", it would have been foolhardy in the extreme not to update the Government advice.

I am seeing a lot of comments like.

Now July, then in July another excuse, another variant. It is October now, we might as well stay closed until the spring as more people will get it over the winter.

What was the point in getting vaccinated - we are still not allowed to do anything.

I must admit I have some sympathy for the last point, I have had mine taking it away from more needy people in poorer counties. I definitely now feel like I have done the wrong thing as the at risk people around the globe are not having any and they are dyeing needlessly so I get it (someone who is extremely unlikely to die from it anyway) The "get your vaccine to help ease the restrictions in the uk is clearly not happening" I feel like I have being conned and actually regret having it as it is making no difference to either my or the rest of the the UKs lives. Definitely won't be taking any boosters.

This news to me is as bad as when they announced the face masks.

 

[Bantamzen]

I am not sure if what you say means that the Government are not reacting to situations that develop. The delta version of the virus with its said 60% more infectionary scenario was not there when the "goalposts" were dealing with the earlier versions, so once this greatly increased chance of infection came to be heard from "the science", it would have been foolhardy in the extreme not to update the Government advice.

It's not just about the number of new infections, it is about how these translate into hospitalisation and mortality. It could be a thousand times more capable of spreading, but if all it did was give millions a headache and sore throat then frankly restrictions would be way over the top.

And we are starting to see that vaccines are breaking that link, so as we close in on higher levels of 1st and 2nd doses so the need for more restrictions diminishes.

I am seeing a lot of comments like.

Now July, then in July another excuse, another variant. It is October now, we might as well stay closed until the spring as more people will get it over the winter.

What was the point in getting vaccinated - we are still not allowed to do anything.

I must admit I have some sympathy for the last point, I have had mine taking it away from more needy people in poorer counties. I definitely now feel like I have done the wrong thing as the at risk people around the globe are not having any and they are dyeing needlessly so I get it (someone who is extremely unlikely to die from it anyway) The "get your vaccine to help ease the restrictions in the uk is clearly not happening" I feel like I have being conned and actually regret having it as it is making no difference to either my or the rest of the the UKs lives. Definitely won't be taking any boosters.

This news to me is as bad as when they announced the face masks.

Yeah, I'm starting to feel the same way.

 

[philosopher]

I am seeing a lot of comments like.

Now July, then in July another excuse, another variant. It is October now, we might as well stay closed until the spring as more people will get it over the winter.

What was the point in getting vaccinated - we are still not allowed to do anything.

I must admit I have some sympathy for the last point, I have had mine taking it away from more needy people in poorer counties. I definitely now feel like I have done the wrong thing as the at risk people around the globe are not having any and they are dyeing needlessly so I get it (someone who is extremely unlikely to die from it anyway) The "get your vaccine to help ease the restrictions in the uk is clearly not happening" I feel like I have being conned and actually regret having it as it is making no difference to either my or the rest of the the UKs lives. Definitely won't be taking any boosters.

This news to me is as bad as when they announced the face masks.

I am still going to get a second dose, but mainly because it lowers my personal risk. I do feel somewhat cheated given the government has specially being telling people to get vaccinated to avoid the restrictions (I have seen adverts specially saying this).

If the restrictions are not eased significantly on the 19th July, I am seriously considering moving abroad, at least temporarily while the UK government returns to it’s senses.

 

[Failed Unit]

I am still going to get a second dose, but mainly because it lowers my personal risk. I do feel somewhat cheated given the government has specially being telling people to get vaccinated to avoid the restrictions (I have seen adverts specially saying this).

If the restrictions are not eased significantly on the 19th July, I am seriously considering moving abroad, at least temporarily while the UK government returns to it’s senses.

I have had my 2nd, it is any future ones they may have I will refuse. But I really do regret having either at all now - something that the government should not have people feeling like. I did it to help the UK as per adds - that clearly was a lie.

When you look at the numbers in India, they have had the Delta variant, it really hurt the country but it has also peaked and is declining.

 

[Jonny]

Have you ever considered the recent reported cases where people are adamant that full or part vaccination is not for them and cite personal freedom. The trouble with that reasoning is that it completely overlooks the chance that should these people become carriers, they have the ability to infect other people.

Remember the 1906 case in New York of Mary Mallon, aka "Typhoid Mary" to see how an infected person can pass the virus onto other people, which in some cases resulted in deaths.

Sorry, but that is a completely different disease. Typhoid can only be passed occupationally. Using restrictions to coerce vaccination is a pretty low thing to do.

You cannot reasonably expect people to give blood etc.; yes you can ask but you cannot complain if it goes unheeded and deaths arise that way. How is declining vaccination, especially when recently out of phase 3, any different?

If everything was 'in the rules' then why did they continue to put up ridiculous official pictures of them wearing masks, 'elbow bumping' and the rest of all this crap, instead of the real photos of them completely ignoring all the theatre? It's almost like there's one set of activities done for show for the proles, then they get back to living normally?

Exactly; when the ruling class think that there is one set of rules for them and another for us, especially when they are made under secondary legislation.

Just like "Professor Lockdown" during the first lockdown.

 

[initiation]

Everything they did was in the rules though.

Can you tell me where the guidance/rules allow standing up while drinking and mingling at either licensed premises or say a large party like a wedding. Hint: for us plebs, we are not allowed such a thing.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I have had my 2nd, it is any future ones they may have I will refuse. But I really do regret having either at all now - something that the government should not have people feeling like. I did it to help the UK as per adds - that clearly was a lie

Yet how many people take it as normal to have the flu vaccine every year without fail?

 

[Failed Unit]

Yet how many people take it as normal to have the flu vaccine every year without fail?

A lot - but I decline it every year without fail (with almost harassment levels of texts from the GP) - so you get both sides.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

When you look at the numbers in India, they have had the Delta variant, it really hurt the country but it has also peaked and is declining.

You raise a very good point here. Is there any scientific evidence to prove that people of different ethnic groups are much more affected than others by the Covid-19 virus?

That is one point that was brought home to me when areas such as Blackburn, Burnley and Bolton with high South Asian ethnic populations were always at the top of the statistically compiled lists of infection rated areas.

 

[nlogax]

A lot - but I decline it every year without fail (with almost harassment levels of texts from the GP) - so you get both sides.

Putting covid aside, why do you decline the flu jab? Genuinely curious.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Everything they did was in the rules though.

Are you sure about that? The so called elites made a show of the elbow bump and then half an hour later they were hugging and patting each other on the back, I doubt they quarantined either, so considering that we are looking at a four week delay to getting back our freedoms that really wasn’t the politicians to take away in the first place, I find it pretty distasteful that they disregarded the rules in a blatant way, I’m certainly not going to follow the rules after the 21st

Have you ever considered the recent reported cases where people are adamant that full or part vaccination is not for them and cite personal freedom. The trouble with that reasoning is that it completely overlooks the chance that should these people become carriers, they have the ability to infect other people.

Remember the 1906 case in New York of Mary Mallon, aka "Typhoid Mary" to see how an infected person can pass the virus onto other people, which in some cases resulted in deaths.


You need to ask the Labour Party that question as they have always believed in magical money trees.

But Covid isn’t that deadly for a large portion of the population, and to be honest with you when Boris does announce the 4 week delay AFTER saying that vaccination was our route back to normal I can see a drop in uptake in the vaccines, what is the point when the government keep shifting the goal posts, a new variant could come along in July that will delay us to August, then September and before you know it we’re in a new lockdown until Spring 2022, at what point do we draw a line? For me June 21st is the day I and from what I can understand, a lot of other people will be drawing the line, we have to live with Covid now and stop with these endless restrictions, especially since the politicians at the G7 aren’t following the rules that they have enforced upon us plebs for the past 15 months.

 

[Failed Unit]

Putting covid aside, why do you decline the flu jab? Genuinely curious.

I feel the NHS resources could be better spent, When I have had it in the past I am bed for a few days then recover. So me taking a job is taking money away from more critical treatments.

 

[nlogax]

I feel the NHS resources could be better spent, When I have had it in the past I am bed for a few days then recover. So me taking a job is taking money away from more critical treatments.

Ta for responding and fair enough.

I never used to take up the annual flu jab offer but have started to in recent years because quite frankly proper flu is an absolutely miserable two week experience and I'd rather lessen my chances of repeating it. Rightly or wrongly it worries me more than getting Covid does.

 

[Simon11]

I feel the NHS resources could be better spent, When I have had it in the past I am bed for a few days then recover. So me taking a job is taking money away from more critical treatments.

With the flu jab, there has to be clear evidence that the cost of giving the flu jab is far better than the treatment? The cost of each jab will be a few pounds, whereas elderly people who end up in hospital for the flu will cost thousands and thousands?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

It's also being reported this morning that the Chancellor will not be looking to extend the furlough scheme, meaning that from the 1st July they will cover only 70% of wages, a further pay cut for potentially millions. Strangely enough the BBC is yet to pick up on this potentially fiery political situation.

Can you clarify what you say about the Chancellor not extending the furlough scheme, as that would seem to suggest no further furlough payments would be forthcoming and if so, where is the 70% wage coverage from 1st July you mention coming from?

With the flu jab, there has to be clear evidence that the cost of giving the flu jab is far better than the treatment? The cost of each jab will be a few pounds, whereas elderly people who end up in hospital for the flu will cost thousands and thousands?

Is it not the stated case that every year, a different variant of the flu virus appears, so fresh protection is required each year.

 

[Simon11]

The PC is at 6pm with Johnson, Whitty and Vallence.

I will be interested to see what graphs the conjure up to justify this. I will also make sure I don't have any heavy objects nearby that I might throw.

My key question for Boris would be: How many lives will be saved by extending the restrictions for a further 4 weeks? How many lives will be sacrificed by extending the restrictions?

Based on current trend charts for deaths (people who died as a result of covid, not just with) I just can't see any logical analysis which would make a delay worth while?

 

[Failed Unit]

With the flu jab, there has to be clear evidence that the cost of giving the flu jab is far better than the treatment? The cost of each jab will be a few pounds, whereas elderly people who end up in hospital for the flu will cost thousands and thousands?

I am speaking about me personally - as someone who is not going to end up in hospital which is why I decline it so my £2 can be better spent elsewhere.

 

[kristiang85]

My key question for Boris would be: How many lives will be saved by extending the restrictions for a further 4 weeks? How many lives will be sacrificed by extending the restrictions?

Based on current trend charts for deaths (people who died as a result of covid, not just with) I just can't see any logical analysis which would make a delay worth while?

I honestly don't see how it will help change COVID data. I was out in London over the weekend, and life is pretty much normal with lots of crowds and mingling. Most private home meets I've done recently have completely ignored the rules, even previously cautious friends. Whatever happens in the next few weeks infectiion-wise would have happened anyway.

The only difference is that businesses are hamstrung with these idiotic capacity limits, which will cause far many more problems in the long run. And with the heat the masks are getting unbearable for some.

If anything, we actually want any wave to happen now, when the weather is great, vit D levels are high and peoples' immunity is at its best.

 

[chris11256]

There's hints in the case data that growth is starting to slow(unless it's a random blip). So as long as they go ramp up vaccination, we should be good for the 19th July. Slightly off topic but I'd hope they'd review the advice around the AZ vaccine to sllow 1st doses to ramp up.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

My key question for Boris would be: How many lives will be saved by extending the restrictions for a further 4 weeks? How many lives will be sacrificed by extending the restrictions?

That surely is the question to ask the scientists, not Johnson, as they are the ones who will be able to answer your query. With the second part of your question above, are there any available statistics in the public domain which could be referred to concerning your stated "sacrificed deaths" in which to make your required comparison to actual deaths.

 

[DelayRepay]

Slightly off topic but I'd hope they'd review the advice around the AZ vaccine to sllow 1st doses to ramp up.

I would agree, especially when the JCVI's advice, issued on 7 May was based on:

the latest available evidence, including the current COVID-19 infection rate, the scale and pace of the vaccine programme and modelling of the timing and size of any third pandemic wave.

Clearly the situation has changed. So maybe we need to offer the younger people the option of the AZ vaccine rather than waiting. Don't force it on anyone but I think many people would take it up, especially males who seem to be less affected than females.

 

[Failed Unit]

There's hints in the case data that growth is starting to slow(unless it's a random blip). So as long as they go ramp up vaccination, we should be good for the 19th July. Slightly off topic but I'd hope they'd review the advice around the AZ vaccine to sllow 1st doses to ramp up.

Sadly we need a whole week to have a good understanding of the trend.

I am interested for example to see the impact on the half term on the numbers.

We did see more people heading to the beaches / parks as the weather was nice. However this activity was always supposed to be "low risk" so hopefully that won't show. We had some fairly well loaded trains heading towards the coast (although I suspect we won't find any links to the overcrowded trains to SkegVegas and any surges)

At the weekend a local park near us was closed because it was no longer possible to socially distance at it. But clearly that didn't bother the people that were there or still turning up so why enforce it when it outdoors would have a low transmission rate. What would they rather these people did, go to the pub and watch the football?

 

[initiation]

My key question for Boris would be: How many lives will be saved by extending the restrictions for a further 4 weeks? How many lives will be sacrificed by extending the restrictions?

Yup. They still have never ever produced a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis for any of these restrictions. There was some push for this from the CRG in Autumn last year but quiet since.

That surely is the question to ask the scientists, not Johnson, as they are the ones who will be able to answer your query.

The scientists are not (meant to be) in charge, Johnson is. He should have the answers to the cost/benefit of the restrictions (not just limited to deaths). The deflection by politicians of 'I am following the science' is cowardly.

Whatever happens in the next few weeks infectiion-wise would have happened anyway.

I can mostly believe this. But the modellers at SAGE live in their own world so we end up with forecasts saying >100,000 cases per day and/or hospitalisations higher than the previous peak.

If anything, we actually want any wave to happen now, when the weather is great, vit D levels are high and peoples' immunity is at its best.

Agree - and NHS 'pressure' is less than traditional flu season. Some people were argueing this point last year...
Of course what we will get are restrictions creeping towards Autumn then extending over Winter.

 

[MikeWM]

It's also being reported this morning that the Chancellor will not be looking to extend the furlough scheme, meaning that from the 1st July they will cover only 70% of wages, a further pay cut for potentially millions. Strangely enough the BBC is yet to pick up on this potentially fiery political situation.

I believe the ban on business evictions also ends on the same date. It seems incredibly unreasonable that some businesses will have to negotiate rent deals with their landlords - or be evicted - without even knowing when/if/how they will be allowed to reopen (either at all, or in a way that they can actually make money).

The Conservatives, 'party of small business'.

 

[kristiang85]

Hidden away in a SAGE report...

26. Analysis based on CO-CIN data indicated that as of 1st May, 30% of positive tests in hospital were linked to hospital acquired infection, including those in up to the fourth generation of transmission following discharge. Since then, as the number of cases in hospital have decreased, the proportion of infections that are hospital associated has increased, and was approximately 80% as of the 1st June. These estimates are preliminary and dependent on modelling assumptions used.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/897526/S0471_SAGE_40_200603_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf

So 80% of patients with COVID in hospital acquired it in hospital?

Tell me why hospitality is being scapegoated and decimated?

Edit: Ah that's from June 2020 by the way (someone reposted it). But I can't imagine it's wildly different to now...

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The scientists are not (meant to be) in charge, Johnson is. He should have the answers to the cost/benefit of the restrictions (not just limited to deaths). The deflection by politicians of 'I am following the science' is cowardly.

Why should he have "the answers" to such a hypothetical scenario. What do you think the scientists and their scientific advice are there for.

The problem with this thread is that the majority of posters on this website and on this thread in particular, are taking the opportunity to grind a few political proverbial axes, which a reading of this thread reveals only too well.

 

[DelayRepay]

Why should he have "the answers" to such a hypothetical scenario. What do you think the scientists and their scientific advice are there for.

He should have the answers, because the scientists and advisors should have provided the answers when he asked the questions. And he should have asked the questions because the answer should be a very important factor when deciding what to do next.