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Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

If case rates do not decline before June 21st, what do you think should happen with the roadmap?

  • Go ahead with easing of all Covid restrictions on June 21st, assuming vaccinations are ramped up

    Votes: 174 52.9%
  • Go ahead with stage 4 of easing restrictions on June 21st, but keep masks and WFH guidance

    Votes: 29 8.8%
  • Ease some stage 4 restrictions on June 21st, but keep others for longer

    Votes: 36 10.9%
  • Postpone stage 4 easing to a later date in the worst affected hotspots

    Votes: 17 5.2%
  • Postpone stage 4 easing to a later date everywhere

    Votes: 47 14.3%
  • Impose new localised restrictions in the worst affected hotspots

    Votes: 7 2.1%
  • Impose new national restrictions

    Votes: 11 3.3%
  • Other (please specify)

    Votes: 8 2.4%

  • Total voters
    329
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londonteacher

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I think you misunderstand the point of the marches. The point, ultimately, is that the restrictions are the choice of a politician or, rather, politicians. The point is to get politicians to stop impinging on liberty, or seeking to impose conditions on it. Some of them are on a zero-covid ego/power trip, I can only speculate as to their underlying agenda (but most likely to get more votes or look ^compassionate^).
I get that but ultimately the people voted for the politicians giving them authority to run the country. No one said they have to run the country well!
 
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brad465

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The NHS Providers' boss Chris Hopson is giving some reassurance about hospital numbers not increasing significantly with the Delta variant:


The number of people in hospital with the Covid variant now known as Delta is rising but not "very significantly," the boss of NHS Providers has said.

Chris Hopson said many of those in hospital in Bolton - the area worst hit by the variant - were younger, with "very few" fully vaccinated patients.
He said this appeared to show vaccines had "broken the chain" between infection and serious illness.
But a scientist pointed to "concerning signs" of the variant's spread.
Mr Hopson was speaking to BBC Breakfast a day after the latest national coronavirus statistics showed that there had been 6,238 new positive cases, and that daily rate has doubled in just three days.
That surge is being driven by the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant, which was first identified in India.

But Mr Hopson said that in Bolton, people in hospital with Covid were "a lot younger" than patients in earlier stages of the pandemic, which meant there was "less demand on critical care".
He added that there were "very, very few" people in hospital who had had both doses of a Covid vaccine, as they had the "build-up of protection after those jabs".
Mr Hopson said in the latest phase of pandemic, the number of people in hospital in Bolton with Covid had not gone past 50, compared with a peak of 170 in November.
He added: "Infection rates have been increasing in a number of different places. We know that the hospitalisations are increasing, the rates of people coming into hospital in those areas are rising. But they are not rising very significantly."
But he warned that the backlog of care for non-Covid illnesses caused by the lockdown means that even a small rise in the number of Covid patients could see hospitals become overstretched.

Asked if the lifting of all restrictions on social contact on 21 June should go ahead as planned, Mr Hopson said the government's decision has become "significantly more finely balanced" due to the NHS still being busy, the Delta variant's increased transmissibility and because many people are still unvaccinated.
He said that he now suspects that, instead of 21 June being an "all or nothing" day when remaining lockdown restrictions are lifted, there may be some things that will be able to change from that day - but it will be "too high risk" to relax other measures.
Public Health England has said that the Delta variant is now the dominant strain of coronavirus in the UK, with the number of cases confirmed by laboratory analysis rising by 79% over the last week to 12,431.
The most affected area of the country remains north-west England, PHE said, with confirmed cases in Bolton rising by 795 over the past week to 2,149. Blackburn with Darwen has seen a near doubling of cases to 724 in total.
 

Yew

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It does seem to have been an open goal for Labour - regardless of how much truth there may or may not be to it, I'd have thought constructing a narrative which blames the current impasse on Johnson failing to secure the border to people arriving from India would have worked quite well politically.
Indeed, if we've learned anything over the last couple of years, using drumbeat nationalism to blame all of our problems on foreigners is highly effective.

It does seem to have been an open goal for Labour - regardless of how much truth there may or may not be to it, I'd have thought constructing a narrative which blames the current impasse on Johnson failing to secure the border to people arriving from India would have worked quite well politically.
Let's not mention that up until 2019, the idea of closing borders was specifically advised against for lack of evidence, nor that despite it's strict border regime, Australia has cases of the Indian Variant.

The NHS Providers' boss Chris Hopson is giving some reassurance about hospital numbers not increasing significantly with the Delta variant:

With the comments about cases in hospital being 'a lot younger' it's important to remember that this isn't some variant that is more dangerous for young people; it's the fact that the vaccine is incredibly effective at stopping hospitalisation, regardless of variants.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Delaying opening up until every adult has been offered their first dose of the vaccine is probably not a bad thing. It would be a week or two at the most at current vaccination rates and seems a good compromise to, as people on here and the marches in London put it, regain our freedoms.
Maybe but that was never the plan and perhaps it should have been but it wasn't. Its alright for Boris and his mates they get to do what they want everyday while the rest of us live constrained lives for the greater good but are never rewarded. The whole point of vaccination in the order the JCVI proposed was to remove the threat of hospitalisations and protect the NHS from being overwhelmed and its achieving that. What's more with the Delta variant pushing up cases numbers we can see hospital admissions increasing slightly but not like they did in wave 2 so the vaccine is doing what it is required protecting the NHS. Yet we now seem to have a new policy that implies any hospitalisation from Covid is no longer acceptable so we have new goal of full vaccination as the requirement to earn our freedom.

Step 4 in its full extent is probably done for now but that doesn't mean all elements have to be deferred but govt for now need to keep stum and undertake the review when they planned and not be bounced to anything by media and scientists.
 

londonteacher

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Maybe but that was never the plan and perhaps it should have been but it wasn't. Its alright for Boris and his mates they get to do what they want everyday while the rest of us live constrained lives for the greater good but are never rewarded. The whole point of vaccination in the order the JCVI proposed was to remove the threat of hospitalisations and protect the NHS from being overwhelmed and its achieving that. What's more with the Delta variant pushing up cases numbers we can see hospital admissions increasing slightly but not like they did in wave 2 so the vaccine is doing what it is required protecting the NHS. Yet we now seem to have a new policy that implies any hospitalisation from Covid is no longer acceptable so we have new goal of full vaccination as the requirement to earn our freedom.

Step 4 in its full extent is probably done for now but that doesn't mean all elements have to be deferred but govt for now need to keep stum and undertake the review when they planned and not be bounced to anything by media and scientists.
I don't agree with your statement about any hospitalisation being unacceptable or a goal. If anything the government are briefing hard that there is no evidence that step 4 will be pushed back.

But, I agree that Step 4 should happen either on or as close to the 21st of June (e.g. 2 weeks after as everyone will be offered their first dose).
 

Watershed

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I don't agree with your statement about any hospitalisation being unacceptable or a goal. If anything the government are briefing hard that there is no evidence that step 4 will be pushed back.

But, I agree that Step 4 should happen either on or as close to the 21st of June (e.g. 2 weeks after as everyone will be offered their first dose).
The government only promised to offer a first dose to all adults by the end of July. At current rates it looks like they'll just manage to meet that target, but not much sooner.

It could be up to 12 weeks after that before everyone has had the opportunity to get a second dose.

Add on another 2 weeks for the second dose to take full effect, and let's say it's an average wait of 2 weeks until the next available appointment for the first jab.

That brings us to the middle of November. Just in time for a fourth lockdown "to protect the NHS against winter demand whilst we give the most vulnerable their booster jabs".

If the government doesn't have the guts to put their foot down now, this charade will continue forever.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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The government only promised to offer a first dose to all adults by the end of July. At current rates it looks like they'll just manage to meet that target, but not much sooner.

It could be up to 12 weeks after that before everyone has had the opportunity to get a second dose.

Add on another 2 weeks for the second dose to take full effect, and let's say it's an average wait of 2 weeks until the next available appointment for the first jab.

That brings us to the middle of November. Just in time for a fourth lockdown "to protect the NHS against winter demand whilst we give the most vulnerable their booster jabs".

If the government doesn't have the guts to put their foot down now, this charade will continue forever.
Problem is they can get away with it and will as it doesn't affect them. The opposition have been on the sidelines and even the likes of CRG just surface occasionally but haven't got the guts to push hard so on we roll. Ultimately majority of population have been so spooked by this event they will just do as there told now.
 

317 forever

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All of which is entirely beside the point. WFH could be the best thing since sliced bread, but if so it should be standing or falling on its own merits as a policy. Forcing people to do it in response to a pandemic is not going to convince anybody. If people still want to go back to the office after more than a year of trying the alternatives then maybe they just don't like WFH.
I like the way you respond to a post about people eating their own sandwiches with a description of WFH being potentially the best thing since sliced bread. :lol:
 

westv

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J
I like the way you respond to a post about people eating their own sandwiches with a description of WFH being potentially the best thing since sliced bread. :lol:
Yes indeed, it is amazing how people can post a response which has no relevance to the post they are quoting! :D:D:D
 

bramling

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Problem is they can get away with it and will as it doesn't affect them. The opposition have been on the sidelines and even the likes of CRG just surface occasionally but haven't got the guts to push hard so on we roll. Ultimately majority of population have been so spooked by this event they will just do as there told now.

I suspect the CRG have simply realised they’re banging their head up against a brick wall.

One can only assume that a significant proportion of the population are content with things as they are, and are happy -in some cases relishing - living a curated life.

It seems a lot of people would probably accept a lifestyle of hibernating over the winter (so long as they have access to stuff like furlough) on the pretence of keeping the NHS operating below its mythical “capacity”, and being released for a few months over the summer. I wouldn’t be surprised we get some kind of lockdown over winter on the basis that hospital admissions are rising, as they always do over winter, and people haven’t had their Covid booster.
 

duncanp

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I suspect the CRG have simply realised they’re banging their head up against a brick wall.

One can only assume that a significant proportion of the population are content with things as they are, and are happy -in some cases relishing - living a curated life.

It seems a lot of people would probably accept a lifestyle of hibernating over the winter (so long as they have access to stuff like furlough) on the pretence of keeping the NHS operating below its mythical “capacity”, and being released for a few months over the summer. I wouldn’t be surprised we get some kind of lockdown over winter on the basis that hospital admissions are rising, as they always do over winter, and people haven’t had their Covid booster.

The trouble is, people won't have access to furlough over the winter, as it has to end at some point.

Hospital admissions rising are not in themselves a reason for a lockdown. It depends whether they affect NHS capacity, which is in itself a somewhat loose term.

I think that an measures over the winter will be guidance rather than mandatory.

At some point public tolerance of and compliance with all these restrictions is going to stop, and I would say we are pretty close to that point at the moment.
 

Furryanimal

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I have a cricket trip to Hove booked based on June 21st happening(but paid Premier Inn an extra £30 so I can cancel without penalty.)
If there is not a full lifting of restrictions-and social distancing remains-then Sussex won’t sell me tickets.
But be glad you can see normality in sight.
Here in Wales we have been told we can expect to be socially distancing until at least Christmas and that track and trace will continue until at least next March!
I can see no reason why normality in England should not happen.Vaccination was sold to us as the way out of this at the start.It has to be.
i just wish Wales was on the same track.
 

westv

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I noticed that Tony Blair was on Andrew Marr this morning praising the use of bio metric ID cards, vaccine passports and brushing aside discrimination concerns raised.
 

brad465

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I suspect the CRG have simply realised they’re banging their head up against a brick wall.

One can only assume that a significant proportion of the population are content with things as they are, and are happy -in some cases relishing - living a curated life.

It seems a lot of people would probably accept a lifestyle of hibernating over the winter (so long as they have access to stuff like furlough) on the pretence of keeping the NHS operating below its mythical “capacity”, and being released for a few months over the summer. I wouldn’t be surprised we get some kind of lockdown over winter on the basis that hospital admissions are rising, as they always do over winter, and people haven’t had their Covid booster.
My initial thinking was the CRG are appeased for now by the roadmap announcement with an end date in mind, as well as all easements to date happening on time, hence they've not been too vocal of late. If June 21st is delayed that's when we have to see if they are still prepared to make a stand.
 

Ediswan

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I noticed that Tony Blair was on Andrew Marr this morning praising the use of bio metric ID cards, vaccine passports and brushing aside discrimination concerns raised.
I just watched an extract of that https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-57374684.
He seemed to be very much intending to discriminate against those who are able to be vaccinated but choose not. (I am reporting that position, not supporting it.)
 

Cdd89

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I just watched an extract of that https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-57374684.
He seemed to be very much intending to discriminate against those who are able to be vaccinated but choose not. (I am reporting that position, not supporting it.)
it’s interesting he mentions travel – I always thought of international travel as the carrot to get vaccinated, but now there is an increasing movement not to allow even the vaccinated to travel, one that the government is buying into through U.K. restrictions based on international case rates. If this doesn’t change very soon people will feel a bait-and-switch has taken place, and it won’t encourage the 18-29 group to take up the vaccine. Hence the calls to look into domestic restrictions on the unvaccinated.
 

NorthOxonian

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I noticed that Tony Blair was on Andrew Marr this morning praising the use of bio metric ID cards, vaccine passports and brushing aside discrimination concerns raised.
Blair has always wanted ID cards, of course - so it's not surprising he wants to use this as an opportunity to force them through.
 

brad465

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I just watched an extract of that https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-57374684.
He seemed to be very much intending to discriminate against those who are able to be vaccinated but choose not. (I am reporting that position, not supporting it.)
Blair has always wanted ID cards, of course - so it's not surprising he wants to use this as an opportunity to force them through.
I've not read widely how his views are being received, but I'd like to think his history is a good advertisement that whatever he comes out with causes people to believe the opposite is what we should do.
 

Bishopstone

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I just watched an extract of that https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-57374684.
He seemed to be very much intending to discriminate against those who are able to be vaccinated but choose not. (I am reporting that position, not supporting it.)

Sounds sensible to me. Vaccine refusers shouldn’t be able to delay the release of restrictions because they’re ’not protected’.
 

nedchester

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Sounds sensible to me. Vaccine refusers shouldn’t be able to delay the release of restrictions because they’re ’not protected’.

Nope and if they get Covid and get seriously ill then tough s**t (but they shouldn’t be refused treatment). The rest of us can carry on as normal.
 

westv

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Sounds sensible to me.
The flaw with that is that, at present, not everybody has been offered the vaccine so you can't have these things now domestically.
Based on current uptake, by the time everybody has been offered the jab the vast majority will be vaccinated - 80%-90% as a guess. So the things will be passed their domestic use by then.
 

Jamesrob637

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I wonder what difference the 1st of July would make as opposed to the 21st of June. It's only ten days later, in which many can be first and second jabbed, it only means one more weekend of restrictions which is when hospitality earns most of its income (and most people I know get paid on the 28th of the month or the last working day of the month, both of which fall on Monday or later, so if anything they'd be willing to spend their money on the first weekend in July rather than the last weekend in June).

If Boris announces next Monday the 1st of July for the end of nearly all restrictions, that gives places such as nightclubs 2.5 weeks' notice, thereby providing them time to sort logistics out with suppliers etc.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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I wonder what difference the 1st of July would make as opposed to the 21st of June. It's only ten days later, in which many can be first and second jabbed, it only means one more weekend of restrictions which is when hospitality earns most of its income (and most people I know get paid on the 28th of the month or the last working day of the month, both of which fall on Monday or later, so if anything they'd be willing to spend their money on the first weekend in July rather than the last weekend in June).

If Boris announces next Monday the 1st of July for the end of nearly all restrictions, that gives places such as nightclubs 2.5 weeks' notice, thereby providing them time to sort logistics out with suppliers etc.
Yeah its easy for the govt to just change stuff as it never affects them and we are supposed to be grateful. The fact is the vaccination programme has been an exceptional success and its delivering exactly what the scientists predicted and potentially better than expected. There has never been a policy to achieve 100% vaccination uptake to move forward yet that is now seemingly govt policy. Boris and his ministers need to say nothing for next week and then ignore all the media and scientists postulating and decide against the criteria they selected. My view some elements of Step 4 should be allowed to proceed like increased numbers at managed gatherings given the trials have proved that they aren't a significance source of transmission. Also I for one would be delighted if table service carries on in pubs as saves all the aggravation at the bar anyhow. I will also tolerate face coverings on public transport and other settings but there needs to a definitive statement on what the conditions are for there removal.
 

PTR 444

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I wonder what difference the 1st of July would make as opposed to the 21st of June. It's only ten days later, in which many can be first and second jabbed, it only means one more weekend of restrictions which is when hospitality earns most of its income (and most people I know get paid on the 28th of the month or the last working day of the month, both of which fall on Monday or later, so if anything they'd be willing to spend their money on the first weekend in July rather than the last weekend in June).

If Boris announces next Monday the 1st of July for the end of nearly all restrictions, that gives places such as nightclubs 2.5 weeks' notice, thereby providing them time to sort logistics out with suppliers etc.
I don’t think the government will ease restrictions on a Thursday as that would be a much busier time for venues. If the government really has to delay stage 4, 5th July would be better than the 1st as it falls on a Monday when affected venues are much quieter.
 

ChrisC

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I don’t think the government will ease restrictions on a Thursday as that would be a much busier time for venues. If the government really has to delay stage 4, 5th July would be better than the 1st as it falls on a Monday when affected venues are much quieter.
I have not heard anything about a delay to the easing restrictions until 1st July. Everything that I have heard on the radio and read in the newspapers have mentioned a possible 2 week delay until 5th July. Having now had both jabs, I now want to live a normal life and I find this possibility very disappointing and do worry that 2 weeks delay could become 3 and then a month etc.
 

MikeWM

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I've not heard anything about 1st July either, but there is some degree of logic to that suggestion - the current 'steps' regulations that currently provide the main legal framework for restrictions expire on 30th June, so that would avoid having to push out the end-date of the entire regulation, which backbenchers may be rather vocal about.

There are a couple of things that do expire on 20th June - masks on public transport for example - which would require another application of a ministerial pen to push out further.

That said, I fail to see the point in delaying by a grand total of 10 days, given there's a lot of political capital at stake if June 21st is missed.
 

philosopher

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Yeah its easy for the govt to just change stuff as it never affects them and we are supposed to be grateful. The fact is the vaccination programme has been an exceptional success and its delivering exactly what the scientists predicted and potentially better than expected. There has never been a policy to achieve 100% vaccination uptake to move forward yet that is now seemingly govt policy. Boris and his ministers need to say nothing for next week and then ignore all the media and scientists postulating and decide against the criteria they selected. My view some elements of Step 4 should be allowed to proceed like increased numbers at managed gatherings given the trials have proved that they aren't a significance source of transmission. Also I for one would be delighted if table service carries on in pubs as saves all the aggravation at the bar anyhow. I will also tolerate face coverings on public transport and other settings but there needs to a definitive statement on what the conditions are for there removal.
Whatever happens on the 21st, whether the easing is delayed or watered down the government must state under what conditions all remaining restrictions and associated guidance can be removed and set out an indicative date when that will occur. Futhermore that indicative date should be at some point this summer, not several months in the future.
 

duncanp

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Whatever happens on the 21st, whether the easing is delayed or watered down the government must state under what conditions all remaining restrictions and associated guidance can be removed and set out an indicative date when that will occur. Futhermore that indicative date should be at some point this summer, not several months in the future.

I agree, and that dates should be tied to the progress of the vaccine rollout.

You should have something like:-

  • No more masks on public transport or in shops when all adults have been offered a first dose of the vaccine
  • Social distancing abolished when two thirds of adults have been offered a second dose of the vaccine
  • All remaining restrictions abolished, and the Coronavirus Act 2020 repealed, when 75% of adults have been offered a second dose of the vaccine.
The government should give realistic dates as to when each of these milestones are expected to be achieved, and the situation should be reviewed weekly. If the targets are reached earlier than expected, then restrictions should be relaxed earlier than expected.

These are just suggestions, but people and businesses want some certainty and hope that at some point this year, life is going to go back to something approaching what it was in February 2020.

And the government should rule out once and for all the idea that there should be another lockdown this winter just to "protect the NHS".
 

Jonny

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I agree, and that dates should be tied to the progress of the vaccine rollout.

You should have something like:-

  • No more masks on public transport or in shops when all adults have been offered a first dose of the vaccine
  • Social distancing abolished when two thirds of adults have been offered a second dose of the vaccine
  • All remaining restrictions abolished, and the Coronavirus Act 2020 repealed, when 75% of adults have been offered a second dose of the vaccine.
The government should give realistic dates as to when each of these milestones are expected to be achieved, and the situation should be reviewed weekly. If the targets are reached earlier than expected, then restrictions should be relaxed earlier than expected.

These are just suggestions, but people and businesses want some certainty and hope that at some point this year, life is going to go back to something approaching what it was in February 2020.

And the government should rule out once and for all the idea that there should be another lockdown this winter just to "protect the NHS".

I would say offered rather than received. Otherwise you are at best sailing close to the wind, or even in breach of the current enabling act(s) - which (for England) is different to the Coronavirus Act 2020.
 
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