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Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

If case rates do not decline before June 21st, what do you think should happen with the roadmap?

  • Go ahead with easing of all Covid restrictions on June 21st, assuming vaccinations are ramped up

    Votes: 174 52.9%
  • Go ahead with stage 4 of easing restrictions on June 21st, but keep masks and WFH guidance

    Votes: 29 8.8%
  • Ease some stage 4 restrictions on June 21st, but keep others for longer

    Votes: 36 10.9%
  • Postpone stage 4 easing to a later date in the worst affected hotspots

    Votes: 17 5.2%
  • Postpone stage 4 easing to a later date everywhere

    Votes: 47 14.3%
  • Impose new localised restrictions in the worst affected hotspots

    Votes: 7 2.1%
  • Impose new national restrictions

    Votes: 11 3.3%
  • Other (please specify)

    Votes: 8 2.4%

  • Total voters
    329
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chris11256

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There won’t be too much of a delay, a couple of different models sho that delaying beyond the end of July then leads to a much larger wave in the autumn and winter.

Although saying that any delay will require further legislation as the road map was worded in such a way that the restrictions expire automatically on the 21st. Not that Parliament has shown any interest scrutinising restructions.
 
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initiation

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a couple of different models sho that delaying beyond the end of July then leads to a much larger wave in the autumn and winter.
I can already see this being used as an excuse as to why we should not have restrictions removed this year at all.
If we had them removed earlier in the year, the Indian variant wouldn't be causing such hysteria.

Not that Parliament has shown any interest scrutinising restructions.
Yup. It is disgraceful.
A reminder that only 6.3% of Covid statutory instruments have been laid for approval prior to implementation.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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I don't understand why there has been no challenge from the media (or anyone here) to only consider delaying lockdown for the Manchester, Blackburn and Bolton area. One look at this map https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map and it appears majority of the cases in England are from there.

Why should communities which have been following the rules over the last few months, kept their rates low have to continually face restriction and lose summer! There is no benefit for us....
I voted for it when this thread started but unfortunately its now spreading out from several areas especially the NW so that option is now gone. This variant will now radiate out from hotspots with only vaccinations able to moderate its spread so the so called experts advice to govt of course will be to stall on step 4. What they won't advise on is

(i) the fact these so called experts told govt case would spiral after step 3 and haven't won't be quoted
(ii) the fact that the Delta variant has cropped up unexpectedly and wasn't factored into step 3 modelling yet case rates remains way below the models won't be quoted.
(iii) the fact that hospitalisations are at 886 in England down 20 on yesterday and NHS isn't overwhelmed wont be quoted
(iv) the fact that daily English discharge rates run at 120-150/day won't be quoted
(v) the fact that hospital duration/patient continues to drop won't be quoted
(vi) the fact they didn't act straight away to restrict travel from India once the variant was detected is govt failure not the people impacted by it wont be admitted.

Of course our hapless media won't call this out, the opposition definitely won't and the CRG will just roll over again and say its ok but only for a few more weeks and on we go until summer turns into autumn and then the experts will say we need to be more careful now.

Hopefully im wrong and we at least get some cut down step 4 even if it means masks and social distancing roll on for a bit longer.
 

MikeWM

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There won’t be too much of a delay, a couple of different models sho that delaying beyond the end of July then leads to a much larger wave in the autumn and winter.

If we take those models at face value (ha!), what purpose is there in delaying for any length of time in order for more people to be vaccinated? Because even more people will be vaccinated by the winter, and if it won't help then, then......

Although saying that any delay will require further legislation as the road map was worded in such a way that the restrictions expire automatically on the 21st. Not that Parliament has shown any interest scrutinising restructions.

Actually most of it expires at the end of the 30th (though masks on transport and some other bits and pieces do expire at the end of the 20th, as currently stands). So a delay of 1.5 weeks is possible without doing too much. Any more than that requires more degree of Parliamentary intervention (though as you say, a fat lot of good it will do) - though nothing stops Hancock or some other Minister signing a few lines of new Regulation that moves the expiry date out to some other date, with that issued as 'too urgent to consult Parliament' - as most of these things have been for the last 15 months - and then Parliament gets a derisory amount of time to 'debate' it a few weeks afterwards.
 

yorksrob

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I voted for it when this thread started but unfortunately its now spreading out from several areas especially the NW so that option is now gone. This variant will now radiate out from hotspots with only vaccinations able to moderate its spread so the so called experts advice to govt of course will be to stall on step 4. What they won't advise on is

(i) the fact these so called experts told govt case would spiral after step 3 and haven't won't be quoted
(ii) the fact that the Delta variant has cropped up unexpectedly and wasn't factored into step 3 modelling yet case rates remains way below the models won't be quoted.
(iii) the fact that hospitalisations are at 886 in England down 20 on yesterday and NHS isn't overwhelmed wont be quoted
(iv) the fact that daily English discharge rates run at 120-150/day won't be quoted
(v) the fact that hospital duration/patient continues to drop won't be quoted
(vi) the fact they didn't act straight away to restrict travel from India once the variant was detected is govt failure not the people impacted by it wont be admitted.

Of course our hapless media won't call this out, the opposition definitely won't and the CRG will just roll over again and say its ok but only for a few more weeks and on we go until summer turns into autumn and then the experts will say we need to be more careful now.

Hopefully im wrong and we at least get some cut down step 4 even if it means masks and social distancing roll on for a bit longer.

You're correct except for the last point.

The gmt will get its fingers massively burned by not putting India on the red list at the same time as Pakistan etc.
 

chris11256

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According to the Sun freedom day is being delayed to the 19th July with no chance of the 21st June happening after number 10 was 'spooked' by how quickly cases have risen. Although there will be a review & the chance of things to change on the 5th July if hospital admission rates dont rise rapidly.

Boris Johnson plans to delay June 21 lockdown lift until JULY 19 after Delta variant triples in a week (thesun.co.uk)

BORIS Johnson is set to delay lockdown lifting “freedom day” to July 19 after cases of the mutant Indian strain exploded by 240 per cent in just a week, The Sun can reveal.

Under plans drawn up to be announced on Monday, a two-week review will be included meaning Covid restrictions could be dropped on July 5 if hospitalisations stay down.


But multiple sources told the Sun the chances of lifting restrictions as planned on June 21 were close to zero - in a massive blow to Wembley hosting of the Euros.

Group games will have a 25 per cent stadium cap - 22,500 fans - with that hopefully rising to around 45,000 for the Semis and the July 11 Final.


It had been hoped Wembley could be full of fully jabbed or tested fans by then, but the delay to the last phase of the roadmap has scotched that.

Running the big matches as pilots for Covid certification trials means the capacity numbers can be stretched, but there will still be thousands of empty seats.

Whitehall sources involved in planning for the delay, point to the fact that all UK adults will have been offered at least one jab by the end of July, with short delay considered far better than having to u-turn and reintroduce restrictions.


One source said: “The last thing they need is a hokey cokey of in out, in out of restrictions.

“No one wants to go backwards, and we have to get this right first go.”

The delay will be used to work out if the vaccine rollout really means rising cases numbers do not spark a surge in hospitalisations - and it will allow millions more people to be double jabbed.

ROADMAP: HOW IT WILL UNFOLD​

June 14 - Boris Johnson will address nation and lay out his plan to delay June 21
June 21 - Original date set for 'Freedom Day' now likely to be delayed
July 5 - Boris Johnson will review and assess the data as part of his 'two-week break clause'. Restrictions could be eased partially or fully if data is positive
July 19 - Proposed new 'Freedom Day' when PM hopes to lift all restrictions across England

You're correct except for the last point.

The gmt will get its fingers massively burned by not putting India on the red list at the same time as Pakistan etc.
Definitely on that part. Most people I know personally and professionally are furious with the Government not adding India to the red list when it should have been, just to allow Boris the chance to have his India trip which we all knew wasn't going to happen.
 

MikeWM

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According to the Sun freedom day is being delayed to the 19th July with no chance of the 21st June happening after number 10 was 'spooked' by how quickly cases have risen. Although there will be a review & the chance of things to change on the 5th July if hospital admission rates dont rise rapidly.

So we're going to be under much stricter restrictions and regulations this July than we were last July... Was that how the vaccination program was supposed to work? I don't recall that being what we were told at the start of the year.

As I've been asking since the 'roadmap' started in February - what's the alternative? If rising case numbers *do* cause a surge in hospitalisations, are we just going to lock down again? Forever?
 

yorksrob

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According to the Sun freedom day is being delayed to the 19th July with no chance of the 21st June happening after number 10 was 'spooked' by how quickly cases have risen. Although there will be a review & the chance of things to change on the 5th July if hospital admission rates dont rise rapidly.

Boris Johnson plans to delay June 21 lockdown lift until JULY 19 after Delta variant triples in a week (thesun.co.uk)




Definitely on that part. Most people I know personally and professionally are furious with the Government not adding India to the red list when it should have been, just to allow Boris the chance to have his India trip which we all knew wasn't going to happen.

Indeed. It's not as though we gained anything as we had to put them on the list eventually anyway !
 

Nicholas Lewis

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If we take those models at face value (ha!), what purpose is there in delaying for any length of time in order for more people to be vaccinated? Because even more people will be vaccinated by the winter, and if it won't help then, then......



Actually most of it expires at the end of the 30th (though masks on transport and some other bits and pieces do expire at the end of the 20th, as currently stands). So a delay of 1.5 weeks is possible without doing too much. Any more than that requires more degree of Parliamentary intervention (though as you say, a fat lot of good it will do) - though nothing stops Hancock or some other Minister signing a few lines of new Regulation that moves the expiry date out to some other date, with that issued as 'too urgent to consult Parliament' - as most of these things have been for the last 15 months - and then Parliament gets a derisory amount of time to 'debate' it a few weeks afterwards.
The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Wearing of Face Coverings on Public Transport) (England) Regulations 2020 were made on 14th June 2020 and in force from 15th June 2020 with a life of 12 months so my take is from Tuesday is they can't enforce masks.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/592/contents
 

chris11256

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The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Wearing of Face Coverings on Public Transport) (England) Regulations 2020 were made on 14th June 2020 and in force from 15th June 2020 with a life of 12 months so my take is from Tuesday is they can't enforce masks.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/592/contents
The problem is that Hancock can quickly write a new statutory instrument under the public health act and have it take effect instantly,
 

MikeWM

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The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Wearing of Face Coverings on Public Transport) (England) Regulations 2020 were made on 14th June 2020 and in force from 15th June 2020 with a life of 12 months so my take is from Tuesday is they can't enforce masks.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/592/contents

The expiry date was amended to the 20th when we went ahead with 'step 3' in May.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/592/regulation/10
These Regulations expire at the end of 20th June 2021.

Expect another such amendment next week :(

You may note however that the explanatory memorandum states
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/592/pdfs/uksiem_20200592_en.pdf
12.4 An Impact Assessment has not been prepared for this instrument because this measure will be in place for 12 months.

which starts to be a little rude if they turn out to be in force for longer.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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The problem is that Hancock can quickly write a new statutory instrument under the public health act and have it take effect instantly,
Indeed but lets see what they do as if they extend them or place another SI it may indicate what their planning
 

Ediswan

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The problem is that Hancock can quickly write a new statutory instrument under the public health act and have it take effect instantly,
He can, but that would involve making a decision, rather than just givng vague non-commital statements.
 

Class 33

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According to the Sun freedom day is being delayed to the 19th July with no chance of the 21st June happening after number 10 was 'spooked' by how quickly cases have risen. Although there will be a review & the chance of things to change on the 5th July if hospital admission rates dont rise rapidly.

Boris Johnson plans to delay June 21 lockdown lift until JULY 19 after Delta variant triples in a week (thesun.co.uk)




Definitely on that part. Most people I know personally and professionally are furious with the Government not adding India to the red list when it should have been, just to allow Boris the chance to have his India trip which we all knew wasn't going to happen.

Yes I expect this will be the case. Yet another "Address to the nation" from Johnson with BAD news yet again. Bloody sick and tired of this. This is absolutely appalling what he's doing to this country. There is absolutely NO REASONS whatsoever for any delay. We are so near now(just 9 and a bit days) to all(or near enough all) restrictions ending, and now he's going to take this away from us and delay by FOUR WEEKS!!! And then they could go and delay again after that due to yet another "variant of concern" coming along and "We need a few more weeks to see the data." This is absolute insanity, it really is. We just can't go on like this. It's absolutely wrecking the country. He said before when reviewing each stage of the roadmap, that he would not be fixating on case numbers and the R rate, but instead focusing on hospital numbers and deaths. Well it looks like he is very much going against what he said!

I for one am absolutely DREADING it being officially confirmed by Johnson that there will be a 4 week delay. I don't know how I'm going to cope with this. This is just absolute mental torture. When I was watching his "Address to the nation" back in early January with him announcing there would be third national lockdown, I was shouting at him on my TV with words I can not repeat here. I won't lie, I felt suicidal at this stage. This really effected me. I felt I couldn't cope with this and couldn't go on any longer. A THIRD national lockdown for crying out loud!!! I had to go out for a walk to calm down. Now of course this 4 week extension to the end of restrictions isn't quite in the same league as a full national lockdown being announced. But it's still going to effect me. I can't be doing with these nonsense restrictions dragging on for too much longer. Many millions of people will be feeling just the same as me. We are absolutely mentally drained by all this. If Johnson does delay this by 4 weeks, then it's quite obvious he doesn't give a toss about the mental health of the people of this country, nor the further damage to many thousands of businesses this further delay is going to cause. Many will go under as a result of this absolutely pointless and wreckless delay.
 

philosopher

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Definitely on that part. Most people I know personally and professionally are furious with the Government not adding India to the red list when it should have been, just to allow Boris the chance to have his India trip which we all knew wasn't going to happen.
It does to me definitely feel like the government threw away all the good progress they had been making in the first few months of the year with the speedy vaccination programme for the sake of a trade summit that did not even happen. I would not be surprised if when the inquiry into all this does report, this will be where the inquiry is most critical of the government.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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The expiry date was amended to the 20th when we went ahead with 'step 3' in May.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/592/regulation/10


Expect another such amendment next week :(

You may note however that the explanatory memorandum states
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/592/pdfs/uksiem_20200592_en.pdf


which starts to be a little rude if they turn out to be in force for longer.
Arghh i see when you open the regs it defaults to the original need to select latest version. As you say they will have drafted amendment No.1 to The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (Steps and Other Provisions) (England) (Amendment) Regulations 2021 already for laying down on Monday. Also if they run it down for another month that will conveniently coincide with parliament on its summer recess so no one will be around to challenge it then for another two months.
 

Bald Rick

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So we're going to be under much stricter restrictions and regulations this July than we were last July

Genuine question ... are we?

My recollection of last July - the end of July and not the beginning, was that restrictions were about the same as now. The beginning of July was tougher - the pubs and restautrants didn’t open until July 4th, and then only in a similar way to now; I’m fairly sure that barbers didn’t open till the middle of the month, and that small gatherings for wedding receptions etc were due from the end of the month but delayed due to rising cases.
 

kristiang85

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Genuine question ... are we?

My recollection of last July - the end of July and not the beginning, was that restrictions were about the same as now. The beginning of July was tougher - the pubs and restautrants didn’t open until July 4th, and then only in a similar way to now; I’m fairly sure that barbers didn’t open till the middle of the month, and that small gatherings for wedding receptions etc were due from the end of the month but delayed due to rising cases.

I went on holiday to Iceland and Italy last July.
 

Lampshade

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So we're going to be under much stricter restrictions and regulations this July than we were last July...
I don't think we are, we can already meet indoors with other households - last July it was same household or support bubble.
 

MikeWM

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Genuine question ... are we?

Yes. From July 4th last year pubs and restaurants and cinemas were open, no 'rule of six', no legally mandated track and trace, no requirement for table service only, no legal requirement for social distancing, no masks.

Same for places of worship.

Hairdressers etc. opened on the 4th too.

No masks in shops (until the 24th July).

I can't remember what the situation was with weddings, so I suppose that may have been worse.

And that's before we get into the international travel situation, which is clearly much worse now than last year.


I don't think we are, we can already meet indoors with other households - last July it was same household or support bubble.

I don't believe that was the case in July, except perhaps in 'local-lockdown' Leicester.
 
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big_rig

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RIP science. Had a good run over the last few hundred years but the anti-vaxxers have won. Didn’t think the next enlightenment age would be centered around religious belief in putting rags over ones face, but oh well. Not looking forward to the impact this will have on ‘modernisation’ of the railway. I don’t have any faith freedom day will ever come now, or that it won’t be immediately reversible should it do so.
 

Bald Rick

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Yes. From July 4th last year pubs and restaurants and cinemas were open, no 'rule of six', no legally mandated track and trace, no requirement for table service only, no legal requirement for social distancing, no masks.

Fairly sure it was table service only - at least it was where I went. And masks may not have been mandatory till the end of the month, but everywhere I went people were wearing them!



Same for places of worship.

Yeah but who goes there?
 

Eyersey468

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Yes I expect this will be the case. Yet another "Address to the nation" from Johnson with BAD news yet again. Bloody sick and tired of this. This is absolutely appalling what he's doing to this country. There is absolutely NO REASONS whatsoever for any delay. We are so near now(just 9 and a bit days) to all(or near enough all) restrictions ending, and now he's going to take this away from us and delay by FOUR WEEKS!!! And then they could go and delay again after that due to yet another "variant of concern" coming along and "We need a few more weeks to see the data." This is absolute insanity, it really is. We just can't go on like this. It's absolutely wrecking the country. He said before when reviewing each stage of the roadmap, that he would not be fixating on case numbers and the R rate, but instead focusing on hospital numbers and deaths. Well it looks like he is very much going against what he said!

I for one am absolutely DREADING it being officially confirmed by Johnson that there will be a 4 week delay. I don't know how I'm going to cope with this. This is just absolute mental torture. When I was watching his "Address to the nation" back in early January with him announcing there would be third national lockdown, I was shouting at him on my TV with words I can not repeat here. I won't lie, I felt suicidal at this stage. This really effected me. I felt I couldn't cope with this and couldn't go on any longer. A THIRD national lockdown for crying out loud!!! I had to go out for a walk to calm down. Now of course this 4 week extension to the end of restrictions isn't quite in the same league as a full national lockdown being announced. But it's still going to effect me. I can't be doing with these nonsense restrictions dragging on for too much longer. Many millions of people will be feeling just the same as me. We are absolutely mentally drained by all this. If Johnson does delay this by 4 weeks, then it's quite obvious he doesn't give a toss about the mental health of the people of this country, nor the further damage to many thousands of businesses this further delay is going to cause. Many will go under as a result of this absolutely pointless and wreckless delay.
Since when has he not gone against what he said?
 

chris11256

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I wonder when the review into social distancing, masks and working from home will be mentioned. Even if stage 4 was going ahead it doesn’t remove the restrictions that really matter.
 

Darandio

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Fairly sure it was table service only - at least it was where I went. And masks may not have been mandatory till the end of the month, but everywhere I went people were wearing them!

I never saw anyone wearing them until they were mandated. Well aside from the guy wearing full hazmat in Asda, hilarious.

Then again when questioned about pubs and restaurants the other week you said all the ones you knew were doing great. The ones I know of are worried about collapsing completely if this goes on for much longer. Funny that.
 

Class 33

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I wonder when the review into social distancing, masks and working from home will be mentioned. Even if stage 4 was going ahead it doesn’t remove the restrictions that really matter.

There was supposed to be news on this 2 weeks ago. Then that got delayed by a week(last week), then that got delayed until this week. And here we are this week with still no news on this. Absolutely ridiculous!
 

philosopher

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Fairly sure it was table service only - at least it was where I went. And masks may not have been mandatory till the end of the month, but everywhere I went people were wearing them!
Last summer from what I recall about half of pubs were doing table service, the other half where doing bar service. About half you seemed to have fill in the test and trace form, the other half you did not.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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I wonder when the review into social distancing, masks and working from home will be mentioned. Even if stage 4 was going ahead it doesn’t remove the restrictions that really matter.
With too many people having been brainwashed already along with the scientists overtly acting on side of caution Boris would have always needed to keep something to keep that group happy.
 

Class 33

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Those of you who are interested in festivals or involved in festivals. This ridiculous 4 week delay I expect will kill off any remaining festivals after 21st June that were intending to hopefully go ahead. I expect there will be a flood of cancellations announced next week as a result of this. Even for many festivals that doesn't clash with the 4 week delay period, I expect many organisers will decide to cancel as they'll probably not have much confidence that Johnson won't impose a further delay and not be prepared to take the risk. This is going to pretty much kill of this summer's festival season. Shame on Johnson.
 
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