Should we go back into lockdown at this point?

[haggishunter]

Put simply, if the R rate over a period is higher then you will double faster. If that relationship doesn't hold then either your R value is wrong or your prevalence stats are wrong.

Not absolutely a given over a shortish period, it depends on length of time between infection and passing the virus on - it’s possible that the differences in mitigation measures and possibly compliance are affecting the speed of reinfection.

Prevalence likely was ahead in Scotland a couple of weeks ago but England appears to now be on a steeper trajectory.

That prevalence was much lower in Scotland mid summer was not in doubt, the FM’s rebuke was for using stats the UK govt wouldn’t permit the SG to make public!

 

[DB]

So which politician of whatever political persuasion is going to stand up and give the public the message "That's not great, but for a new and *fairly* nasty virus, that's not terribly unusual or unprecedented, given about 1500 people die every day anyway."
That would be a totally unacceptable message to the masses in 2020, otherwise why in more normal times develop drugs to ensure people live longer even though health and social care around the world can not cope with those longer living people.

It might be unacceptable, but it's the reality.

It's also important that people understand that a large number those who die of this are likely to die soon anyway - plus with all the measures under the sun the best that can be hoped is to slow the spread a bit, and it will still get everywhere eventually. It cannot be eliminated - it's gone way too far for that now. Even with a vaccine it probably won't happen, or if it does take decades.

 

[kristiang85]

So which politician of whatever political persuasion is going to stand up and give the public the message "That's not great, but for a new and *fairly* nasty virus, that's not terribly unusual or unprecedented, given about 1500 people die every day anyway."
That would be a totally unacceptable message to the masses in 2020, otherwise why in more normal times develop drugs to ensure people live longer even though health and social care around the world can not cope with those longer living people.

I am starting to feel this is a social media driven pandemic now.

 

[Huntergreed]

Sturgeon again emphasising that elimination is the only way out of this in her briefing today. She's said the measures introduced yesterday are hopefully enough to start suppressing the virus and getting it down to this level, but if a full lockdown is required to achieve elimination, then that is what will happen.

Why is she still hellbent on achieving something that I frankly do not believe to be possible.

 

[takno]

I am starting to feel this is a social media driven pandemic now.

That's much easier to solve. Facebook were actively offering to withdraw from the EU yesterday. I think they meant it as a threat, but it's starting to sound like a golden opportunity for our erstwhile partners.

 

[kristiang85]

Sturgeon again emphasising that elimination is the only way out of this in her briefing today. She's said the measures introduced yesterday are hopefully enough to start suppressing the virus and getting it down to this level, but if a full lockdown is required to achieve elimination, then that is what will happen.

Why is she still hellbent on achieving something that I frankly do not believe to be possible.

It's madness.

New Zealand seem to be going down the same route - eliminate it in their country until there is a vaccine (which will either not happen or take a long time, most likely). In the meantime they are cut off from the world, and either they will keep being successful and the economy will tank, or they will eventually get a wave of virus way later than anybody else.

The elimination strategy is crazy. And where do we stop eliminating seasonal diseases?

 

[kez19]

Sturgeon again emphasising that elimination is the only way out of this in her briefing today. She's said the measures introduced yesterday are hopefully enough to start suppressing the virus and getting it down to this level, but if a full lockdown is required to achieve elimination, then that is what will happen.

Why is she still hellbent on achieving something that I frankly do not believe to be possible.

So as if round 1 wasn’t enough let’s try again round 2, I wonder if she could eliminate seasonal colds? Mind you saying that you can get colds/flu anytime of the year it doesn’t need to be seasonal.

Kind of repeat Boris a bit surprised she didn’t mention military

 

[packermac]

So you're saying the politicians are too weak and feeble to tell us the truth, so instead need to spin a web of deceit that causes significantly worse damage than the original problem?

They wanted the job, they need to grow a backbone. Politicians in the past didn't pretend we were immortal - look at how the serious outbreaks in the 1950s and 1960s were handled.

No the public are not prepared to receive a large death message given as well that is how it is. People expect maybe unrealistically that this will not happen.

 

[bramling]

So as if round 1 wasn’t enough let’s try again round 2, I wonder if she could eliminate seasonal colds? Mind you saying that you can get colds/flu anytime of the year it doesn’t need to be seasonal.

Kind of repeat Boris a bit surprised she didn’t mention military

Sturgeon seems to be on a different one at the moment - blaming Boris / England for the end of furlough (and by definition wouldn’t things be better if only they had independence).

 

[MikeWM]

No the public are not prepared to receive a large death message given as well that is how it is. People expect maybe unrealistically that this will not happen.

I think that is true, and I have a number of opinions as to the reasons why the public are of that view.

But one of the main roles politicians have to do is successfully communicate things that the public don't necessarily want to hear. If they don't want to do that they shouldn't take the job.

 

[kez19]

Sturgeon seems to be on a different one at the moment - blaming Boris / England for the end of furlough (and by definition wouldn’t things be better if only they had independence).

So much for 4 nation approach, deflect as always, yet issues closer to home she should be getting on with but as always Westminster’s fault/blame England... the same excuse is getting tiresome I hope people will wake up and this backfires on her

 

[greyman42]

Kind of repeat Boris a bit surprised she didn’t mention military

She has not got a military to mention.

 

[DB]

No the public are not prepared to receive a large death message given as well that is how it is. People expect maybe unrealistically that this will not happen.

So you think that politicians should just lie and tell them whatever they want to hear, even if it's nonsense?

 

[packermac]

So you think that politicians should just lie and tell them whatever they want to hear, even if it's nonsense?

As my old boss used to say , it is never about the truth it is all about perception.
Joe Public needs to be reassured that at some stage this virus will be under control/beaten/controlled by a vaccine/not wrecking their life forever by stopping them doing what they used to do (delete as applicable).
The Chinese who after all caused this seem to have had very little impact it appears by basically shutting the borders for about 6 months and I suspect some pretty totalitarian control policies towards their population. As many on here seem to think enforcing wearing a mask makes the UK a police state, how would that policy have gone down then?

 

[DB]

As my old boss used to say , it is never about the truth it is all about perception.
Joe Public needs to be reassured that at some stage this virus will be under control/beaten/controlled by a vaccine/not wrecking their life forever by stopping them doing what they used to do (delete as applicable).

But when there is a measurable outcome trite claims about perception really don't apply.

It isn't the virus which is stopping people doing what they used to do - it's the government response to it which is doing that. Reassuring people that it will be 'beaten' is pure propaganda and very unlikely to happen. As with every past pandemic, it will die down and become background noise in due course, although the current policies are making that take longer than necessary.

The government needs to be honest, but that will mean a loss of face after months of ramping up the paranoia, so they are doing everything they can to avoid it.

 

[Huntergreed]

But when there is a measurable outcome trite claims about perception really don't apply.

It isn't the virus which is stopping people doing what they used to do - it's the government response to it which is doing that. Reassuring people that it will be 'beaten' is pure propaganda and very unlikely to happen. As with every past pandemic, it will die down and become background noise in due course, although the current policies are making that take longer than necessary.

The government needs to be honest, but that will mean a loss of face after months of ramping up the paranoia, so they are doing everything they can to avoid it.

Precisely. The question I want to know is, are they delusional like the rest of the public, or do they know but are afraid of the consequences?

 

[kez19]

She has not got a military to mention.

The Scottish Resistance or should could use Police Scotland

 

[Freightmaster]

Sturgeon seems to be on a different one at the moment - blaming Boris / England for the end of furlough (and by definition wouldn’t things be better if only they had independence).

As far as I am concerned, she is more than welcome to extend furlough in Scotland for a further 12 months if she wants to,
as long as it is 100% funded by those Scottish taxpayers who voted for independence in the referendum - then they would
quickly find out (the hard way!) how much "better off" they would be as an independent nation!!




MARK

 

[haggishunter]

So much for 4 nation approach, deflect as always, yet issues closer to home she should be getting on with but as always Westminster’s fault/blame England... the same excuse is getting tiresome I hope people will wake up and this backfires on her

What tosh, the issue over furlough is pretty simple - the Scottish Government budget is basically fixed, it has very limited annual borrowing for capital projects. It can not fund furlough because HM Treasury alone retains the necessary borrowing powers. That applies to all the devolved governments.

There is a lot of outdoor / activity and tourism related jobs in Scotland that even if the job is not itself seasonal, the vast bulk of the employers income is. That means if furlough ends the employers simply cant afford to keep staff on till next spring, it doesn't mean the job is never coming and gone for good as the Chancellor implies.

 

[Scotrail12]

The r/Scotland page on Reddit seems to be very pro-restriction. Not a joyous read.

I swear that getting through to these sorts of people would be like teaching a dog to become bilingual.

 

[kez19]

What tosh, the issue over furlough is pretty simple - the Scottish Government budget is basically fixed, it has very limited annual borrowing for capital projects. It can not fund furlough because HM Treasury alone retains the necessary borrowing powers. That applies to all the devolved governments.

There is a lot of outdoor / activity and tourism related jobs in Scotland that even if the job is not itself seasonal, the vast bulk of the employers income is. That means if furlough ends the employers simply cant afford to keep staff on till next spring, it doesn't mean the job is never coming and gone for good as the Chancellor implies.

Are you sure you have the right person here? As I ain't mentioned anything about furlough!

I spoke about the 4 nation approach was that all home nations followed as one but clearly it still seems everyone has went in their own direction again...

As far as I hear supposedly in her own broadcasts she still reverts to blaming Westminster, so if she has devolved issues deal with them than deflect (take responsibility)

 

[Jonny]

It might be unacceptable, but it's the reality.

It's also important that people understand that a large number those who die of this are likely to die soon anyway - plus with all the measures under the sun the best that can be hoped is to slow the spread a bit, and it will still get everywhere eventually. It cannot be eliminated - it's gone way too far for that now. Even with a vaccine it probably won't happen, or if it does take decades.

As things stand, not only is mandatory treatment, including vaccination, specifically excluded from the Section 45A (and onwards), but using other powers instead would look like unlawful circumvention and/or collective punishment.

Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984

An Act to consolidate certain enactments relating to the control of disease and to the establishment and functions of port health authorities, including enactments relating to burial and cremation and to the regulation of common lodging–houses and canal boats, with amendments to give effect to...

www.legislation.gov.uk

Also, I would be reluctant to hand details over or even use my card for payment in the present climate because of the powers under Schedule 21 of the Coronavirus Act 2020. Now that is something special, and its (Sub)Section 6 allows (at least in theory) for potentially people to be taken from their homes.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

The r/Scotland page on Reddit seems to be very pro-restriction. Not a joyous read.

I swear that getting through to these sorts of people would be like teaching a dog to become bilingual.

I just had a quick look at one of the comment threads on that subreddit and glad I went no further. I don't fancy paying for a new laptop. Or window.

One of these days I will find an hour or so to type up how I feel about the handling of the pandemic - by both Scottish and UK Government. But it pains me to see that some people reckon that "if the pubs opened 3 weeks later" or "we had another short full lockdown" everything would be fine 'n' dandy.

 

[haggishunter]

Are you sure you have the right person here? As I ain't mentioned anything about furlough!

I spoke about the 4 nation approach was that all home nations followed as one but clearly it still seems everyone has went in their own direction again...

As far as I hear supposedly in her own broadcasts she still reverts to blaming Westminster, so if she has devolved issues deal with them than deflect (take responsibility)

Oops, you’d quoted the post I meant to quote!

 

[kez19]

I just had a quick look at one of the comment threads on that subreddit and glad I went no further. I don't fancy paying for a new laptop. Or window.

One of these days I will find an hour or so to type up how I feel about the handling of the pandemic - by both Scottish and UK Government. But it pains me to see that some people reckon that "if the pubs opened 3 weeks later" or "we had another short full lockdown" everything would be fine 'n' dandy.

I am surprised at this mindset of it all, surpress the virus and it'll be gone yet if people look at the bigger picture, in my opinion surpress it so much it will be out in the woods once more, maybe the should just let nature runs it course?

I personally don't have an answer to it but to me it just seems when we hear politicians speak of following the science, then surely at least part of that science would say doing it this one way is not going to help but other than cause more flare ups and locking down won't help either?

I know people speak of the swedish approach but it seems to an extent as far as I have heard (as I have family there), they are close to normal but are at least cautious.

However I have came across this as I wrote above so I do wonder with this talk of a "mini" lockdown they have took it from there:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/23/sweden-shifts-no-lockdown-strategy/ (paywall)

Sweden's state epidemiologist has said that he is now willing to recommend lockdown measures such as school closures, and strict limits to the size of gatherings -- so long as they are only imposed locally and for three weeks at a time....

Stockholm faces local restrictions after rising infections

Unlike other countries, Sweden has gone it alone and resisted a lockdown

www.independent.co.uk

The country’s health minister signalled earlier this month the government is keen to avoid national restrictions.
“It’s very important that we have quick and local response to hit down the virus without making restrictions for the whole country,” Lena Hallengren said.

 

[Jonny]

I am starting to feel this is a social media driven pandemic now.

I have to agree - other people are getting nervous. I am trying to keep out the way because otherwise it would be a matter of time before I reacted badly if they called me out on something that they don't like.

 

[LAX54]

I have to agree - other people are getting nervous. I am trying to keep out the way because otherwise it would be a matter of time before I reacted badly if they called me out on something that they don't like.

Think it has been Social Media / 24hr News driven from day 1, Panic stories on FB and Twitter, which just gathered speed, and rolled over the world !

 

[birchesgreen]

That is the difference between this and earlier pandemics, people demand an instant response and the government are too weak to resist.

 

[Ianno87]

Think it has been Social Media / 24hr News driven from day 1, Panic stories on FB and Twitter, which just gathered speed, and rolled over the world !

Basically how the toilet roll shortage happened....

 

[al78]

No the public are not prepared to receive a large death message given as well that is how it is. People expect maybe unrealistically that this will not happen.

Ignoring or denying the truth doesn't change the truth, but it can, and often does result in poor decision making. Accepting reality is the first stage in dealing with it.

This applies to other things the public don't want to take on board (e.g. climate change and consequences of unsustainable living).

That is the difference between this and earlier pandemics, people demand an instant response and the government are too weak to resist.

If the government resist, the public will vote for someone who won't resist.

Basically how the toilet roll shortage happened....

Plus the current reports of panic buying by stupid prats who by doing so are actually increasing the risk of the thing they are scared of (essential product shortages).