Should we go back into lockdown at this point?

[Eyersey468]

I considered lockdown to be over when Cummings wasn't sacked.

To be honest when Cummings broke the rules, lied and got away with it that was it for me too. Since then I've done the bare minimum the law requires and no more than that

 

[bramling]

Ignoring or denying the truth doesn't change the truth, but it can, and often does result in poor decision making. Accepting reality is the first stage in dealing with it.

This applies to other things the public don't want to take on board (e.g. climate change and consequences of unsustainable living).



If the government resist, the public will vote for someone who won't resist.



Plus the current reports of panic buying by stupid prats who by doing so are actually increasing the risk of the thing they are scared of (essential product shortages).

The government need to be honest. At the moment they’re trying to drain the ocean, and in the longer term they will end up pleasing no one, which means they’ll be voted out anyway. I sense Boris already knows he’s finished - it’s pretty much guaranteed I’d say that he won’t fight another election.

I’m sensing a growing malcontent especially from those who have been working through most or all of this. The handling has been shambolic.

 

[Eyersey468]

I have worked through and thought from day 1 that shutting everything down was a big mistake. I get that politically it was necessary as they had to be seen to do something, however I ran out of patience with the government months ago. I agree the government needs to be honest about what they are trying to achieve, it seems to me that they are picking restrictions out of a hat now as they never explain properly what they are for.

There is a series of 4 (so far?) threads on another forum I am on about whether the cure (lockdown) is worse than Covid. The majority of contributors to it are of the opinion it is. Worth a read if anyone has the time.

 

[Pete_uk]

Meanwhile there are 20,000 fans at the Europa Super Cup match in Budapest. Several countries are allowing lowish numbers of fans at events.

 

[Jonny]

The government need to be honest. At the moment they’re trying to drain the ocean, and in the longer term they will end up pleasing no one, which means they’ll be voted out anyway. I sense Boris already knows he’s finished - it’s pretty much guaranteed I’d say that he won’t fight another election.

I’m sensing a growing malcontent especially from those who have been working through most or all of this. The handling has been shambolic.

I just hope that he can last a few more months - he is more likely not to mandate vaccination than any major leader except maybe Donald Trump. The media were also talking like a vaccine was the only solution; well I hate to break the news but if measures such as this are intended to be the solution then it is immoral to use more than minimal persuasion to get people to take a treatment (vaccinations are a subset of medical treatments) that an honest scientist would have to admit offered little benefit to the patient.

 

[Howardh]

I have worked through and thought from day 1 that shutting everything down was a big mistake. I get that politically it was necessary as they had to be seen to do something, however I ran out of patience with the government months ago. I agree the government needs to be honest about what they are trying to achieve, it seems to me that they are picking restrictions out of a hat now as they never explain properly what they are for.

There is a series of 4 (so far?) threads on another forum I am on about whether the cure (lockdown) is worse than Covid. The majority of contributors to it are of the opinion it is. Worth a read if anyone has the time.

If the first lockdown and the sacrifices we all made worked - then all that sacrifice has now been wasted as the minute the schools returned the figures have shot right back up. So basically, if the government wants the figures right down again, they can send every adult back to self-isolation but it simply won't work if they leave the kids in school to transmit the virus when they get home. Any further lockdowns will be futile unless the schools are shut.
As a disclaimer, I've absolutely no reason to want schools to be shut - I've nothing to gain, not even emptier roads as I'm retired and don't commute. All it is is seeing the bleedin' obvious in front of me.

 

[Richard Scott]

If the first lockdown and the sacrifices we all made worked - then all that sacrifice has now been wasted as the minute the schools returned the figures have shot right back up. So basically, if the government wants the figures right down again, they can send every adult back to self-isolation but it simply won't work if they leave the kids in school to transmit the virus when they get home. Any further lockdowns will be futile unless the schools are shut.
As a disclaimer, I've absolutely no reason to want schools to be shut - I've nothing to gain, not even emptier roads as I'm retired and don't commute. All it is is seeing the bleedin' obvious in front of me.

Don't think schools are the problem, although schools been open for best part of 4 weeks some have only had all the pupils in for past two so not enough time to make any difference. Scotland has been back for three weeks longer yet seems their rises in numbers of are in line with rest of UK. Evidence schools are the issue is very weak at best. Perhaps the fact it's a respiratory virus and at this time of year they tend to cause an increase in infection rate may have something to do with it?

 

[Ascotroyal]

Cardiff and Swansea will go into lockdown from 18:00 BST on Sunday

 

[takno]

Don't think schools are the problem, although schools been open for best part of 4 weeks some have only had all the pupils in for past two so not enough time to make any difference. Scotland has been back for three weeks longer yet seems their rises in numbers of are in line with rest of UK. Evidence schools are the issue is very weak at best. Perhaps the fact it's a respiratory virus and at this time of year they tend to cause an increase in infection rate may have something to do with it?

Scotland's increases are running ahead of England's, possibly by two weeks.

 

[Howardh]

Don't think schools are the problem, although schools been open for best part of 4 weeks some have only had all the pupils in for past two so not enough time to make any difference. Scotland has been back for three weeks longer yet seems their rises in numbers of are in line with rest of UK. Evidence schools are the issue is very weak at best. Perhaps the fact it's a respiratory virus and at this time of year they tend to cause an increase in infection rate may have something to do with it?

In Bolton we have had the schools back for over three weeks, but otherwise we have been under lockdown for over two weeks with hospitality completely closed. The numbers infected have been around the 200/100k mark since before this lockdown started.
Therefore, if schools did not cause the increase in covid numbers, and hospitality has completely closed down (save for take-aways) then what HAS caused the largest number of cases currently in the UK?
Because up here we would like to know as we are going through another lockdown when the rest of the country is relatively free.

 

[Richard Scott]

In Bolton we have had the schools back for over three weeks, but otherwise we have been under lockdown for over two weeks with hospitality completely closed. The numbers infected have been around the 200/100k mark since before this lockdown started.
Therefore, if schools did not cause the increase in covid numbers, and hospitality has completely closed down (save for take-aways) then what HAS caused the largest number of cases currently in the UK?
Because up here we would like to know as we are going through another lockdown when the rest of the country is relatively free.

It's behaving like these sorts of viruses do and becoming more prevalent at this time of year.

 

[DelayRepay]

It's behaving like these sorts of viruses do and becoming more prevalent at this time of year.

I'm not convinced it's the weather. I'm not sure what it's been like in Bolton but here we've enjoyed a very pleasent few weeks. Autumn arrived earlier this week (in weather terms), but the increase started before the weather turned.

 

[bramling]

Cardiff and Swansea will go into lockdown from 18:00 BST on Sunday

I see there was some threatening words on the news about Swansea. I forget the exact words but it was along the lines of the ball is in Swansea’s court, and if Swansea co-operates then they will be out of lockdown sooner.

So more inflammatory language which will stir up a load of curtain-twitching.

This is all getting extremely nasty now.

 

[Howardh]

I'm not convinced it's the weather. I'm not sure what it's been like in Bolton but here we've enjoyed a very pleasent few weeks. Autumn arrived earlier this week (in weather terms), but the increase started before the weather turned.

The weather here's been normal; bit chilly the last couple of days like everywhere else. Think the weather's a red herring.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Given the various news reports - the virus seems more rampant now than it was six months ago. Large numbers of people have been infected, but not as many deaths. Surely this is a positive sign? I would say if the virus is infecting people so quickly, isn't there a possibility this wave will soon pass and then we can all get back to normality again?

CJ

 

[Richard Scott]

The weather here's been normal; bit chilly the last couple of days like everywhere else. Think the weather's a red herring.

Don't think it's anything to do with weather, was mentioned in an article I read before it started to increase again. Just putting it out there as an explanation. May be coincidence that schools have gone back?

 

[takno]

I see there was some threatening words on the news about Swansea. I forget the exact words but it was along the lines of the ball is in Swansea’s court, and if Swansea co-operates then they will be out of lockdown sooner.

So more inflammatory language which will stir up a load of curtain-twitching.

This is all getting extremely nasty now.

I'm getting to the point where I feel like people in affected areas who take tests when they aren't feeling ill are the ones letting the side down. If they just declined to bother and self-isolated for a bit instead then their localities wouldn't be under such severe restrictions

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm not convinced it's the weather. I'm not sure what it's been like in Bolton but here we've enjoyed a very pleasent few weeks. Autumn arrived earlier this week (in weather terms), but the increase started before the weather turned.

The increase started when the schools reopened. It's glaringly obvious that that's what it is.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

The increase started when the schools reopened. It's glaringly obvious that that's what it is.

The first stark increase in cases (by specimen date) was 1st and 2nd September. That means the individuals picked the virus up around the 25th or 26th August.

Schools are probably a contributing factor to the spread of the increase, but I imagine a lot of people making the last of EOTHO is the main contributor at the outset of the increase.

 

[thejuggler]

Track and Trace data of where people had been immediately before a positive test shows Eat Out to Help Out probably wasn't a good idea.

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1309540574215757825

The initial lock down was supposed to give some time to allow a 'World Beating' app and Test, Track, Trace, Isolate system to be up and running.

It wasn't and panic set in at the Treasury. Another 6 months and most hospitality businesses may well be closed.

 

[yorkie]

The increase started when the schools reopened. It's glaringly obvious that that's what it is.

Not true.

The first stark increase in cases (by specimen date) was 1st and 2nd September. That means the individuals picked the virus up around the 25th or 26th August.

And most schools in England didn't reopen until week commencing 7th September.

 

[bramling]

The first stark increase in cases (by specimen date) was 1st and 2nd September. That means the individuals picked the virus up around the 25th or 26th August.

Schools are probably a contributing factor, but I imagine a lot of people making the last of EOTHO is one.

One wonders if the eating out managed to spread just enough cases round enough households that it then provided the perfect springboard for schools.

I agree that the uplift around the start of September is too soon for schools.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Track and Trace data of where people had been immediately before a positive test shows Eat Out to Help Out probably wasn't a good idea.

That's quite interesting. So is it perhaps the case that even 2m distancing isn't good enough indoors?

I suspect shopping is a red herring, because if you asked any random person on the street where they'd been in the last week, you can be near-certain that one of the places will be a shop of some sort.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

That's quite interesting. So is it perhaps the case that even 2m distancing isn't good enough indoors?

1 metre in pubs and restaurants, remember.

 

[Bletchleyite]

1 metre in pubs and restaurants, remember.

Having read the Tweets, the issue may not be that, but that you could in practice sit with any other 5 people regardless of who they were - so it was most likely spreading among them.

6 people at a table - reasonably well spaced out but I bet if one had it (fortunately not) they all would have ended up with it unless already immune. This was probably not an unusual scenario.

 

[yorkie]

Track and Trace data of where people had been immediately before a positive test shows Eat Out to Help Out probably wasn't a good idea.

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1309540574215757825

This is an incorrect interpretation; see this response:

https://twitter.com/dan_grey/status/1309566920442679301

Ed's misunderstood this a bit, that chart is *contacts*, not *visits*. It's where and how many times a person who's tested positive met someone else they know (a 'contact'), coming within at least 1m for any time at all, or spending at least 15 minutes within 2m of them

Also note how low manufacturing is in your list, and yet one of the settings most likely to result in larger clusters is in manufacturing.

The suggestion that this data shows which settings are more likely to result in the virus spreading is completely absurd and a total misrepresentation, not to mention the fact it ignores the incubation period of the virus!

 

[Richard Scott]

One wonders if the eating out managed to spread just enough cases round enough households that it then provided the perfect springboard for schools.

I agree that the uplift around the start of September is too soon for schools.

But realistically how many cases are there compared to how many people were eating out and how many go to school every day? Even 10,000 a day and we'll be like this for about 20 years until majority have had it. Still a lot of fussing especially as deaths are so low compared to where we were in April and currently accounting for 2% of daily deaths. How many of those were likely to be in last few months of life anyway? We need to be realistic and we just aren't. We see a few thousand new cases a day as a big deal and it isn't. If they keep rising then we'll have herd immunity sooner and can get on with life. With no proven vaccine yet we have nothing else to rely on unless we want to live like this for years to come?

 

[Paul_10]

One wonders if the eating out managed to spread just enough cases round enough households that it then provided the perfect springboard for schools.

I agree that the uplift around the start of September is too soon for schools.

But other countries I imagine did not have such an offer in their restaurants and cases have shot up there so I don't think the eat out offer is the main reason why cases have went up. More people are flying in from affected countries so this could be causing the rise in cases? Or it could be a combination of everything and that people who got no idea they got coronavirus are passing it on?

 

[yorkie]

But other countries I imagine did not have such an offer in their restaurants and cases have shot up there so I don't think the eat out offer is the main reason why cases have went up. ... Or it could be a combination of everything and that people who got no idea they got coronavirus are passing it on?

Indeed

Most people are asymptomatic; of those who aren't, most have only very mild symptoms

People are spending more time indoors; people have to get back to relative normal

It was inevitable that it was going to accelerate.

 

[talldave]

The increase started when the schools reopened. It's glaringly obvious that that's what it is.

Disagree. The increase started when masks were mandated.