Step 3 confirmed for 17th May

[Bantamzen]

One thing is that the UK seems to have been unlucky with this variant, in that it seems to have been the first country outside the Indian subcontinent where it has spread significantly.

The question is that because of leaky borders, or is it because other countries do actually have loads of the Indian variant spreading but don’t know about it or are not so concerned by it.

The other thing is that Chile and the Seychelles are using Chinese vaccines that are not that great at stopping infections, however they do from what understand still stop severe illness.

The reason this variant is more visible here down to the vast numbers of tests we do. Some people here are taking two or more tests a week, something I'm not sure is replicated elsewhere. As for "leaky borders", you surely don't believe ours is the only country with ongoing international travel,.do you?

 

[Mintona]

Is it right that cases are up 77% today compared to Friday?

No chance of restrictions being eased further in June if so. Far more likely to be going the other way.

 

[Class 317]

Right now we have still only fully vaccinated (2 doses) less than 40% of the population and 1 dose hasn't quite got to 70%. The trouble in the NW is the variant is spreading through unvaccinated sections of the population and people between 35 and 55 are presenting at hospitals in Bolton and Blackburn. As the leader of Bolton Council said , imposing local shutdowns will mean people driving to other areas

As a data analyst I do feel the need to fact check a very common misuse of the vaccine stats that I,ve seen released on here regularly.

Currently only 54.9% of the population have had at least one vaccine. The 70% figure is only 70% of eligible adults and excludes under 18s and also anyone that cannot have the vaccine due to medical conditions.

It's important to understand the 2 very different figures and not to confuse them as they show quite different levels of vaccinated herd immunity (not trying to get back into debate on vaccinated versus immunity from infection).

Moving onto the herd immunity comments, the herd immunity level for covid is not yet proven but 70 - 85% is commonly accepted level depending on the assumptions made in the modelling behind various studies.

 

[Dent]

Is it right that cases are up 77% today compared to Friday?

There are weekly fluctuations in the level of testing, so comparing a Monday with a Friday is not a valid like for like comparison. The valid comparison is with the corresponding day last week.

 

[Journeyman]

There are weekly fluctuations in the level of testing, so comparing a Monday with a Friday is not a valid like for like comparison. The valid comparison is with the corresponding day last week.

Latest numbers are 1979 daily cases, down nearly 400 on the same day last week, so heading very firmly in the right direction.

 

[takno]

One thing is that the UK seems to have been unlucky with this variant, in that it seems to have been the first country outside the Indian subcontinent where it has spread significantly.

The question is that because of leaky borders, or is it because other countries do actually have loads of the Indian variant spreading but don’t know about it or are not so concerned by it.

The other thing is that Chile and the Seychelles are using Chinese vaccines that are not that great at stopping infections, however they do from what understand still stop severe illness.

The UK is unlucky in that the one area of healthcare spending David Cameron was willing to indulge in was genomic testing, and in that we are doing more testing per capita than virtually anybody else. The upshot is that we are far more equipped than other nations to quickly detect both meaningless variants and meaningless trends in infection.

The criteria for determining whether somebody has Covid in many other countries is "coughing enough to contact the doctor, and still infectious several days later when somebody finally sticks a swab up their nose". If we were operating under the same criteria we'd have no detectable caseload at all, let alone variants to be concerned about.

 

[matt]

Is it right that cases are up 77% today compared to Friday?

No chance of restrictions being eased further in June if so. Far more likely to be going the other way.

No where have you read that? Daily case numbers for today are slightly lower than Friday. As per https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ the 7 day increase is only 1%

 

[Class 317]

There are weekly fluctuations in the level of testing, so comparing a Monday with a Friday is not a valid like for like comparison. The valid comparison is with the corresponding day last week.

77% is cases of Indian variant not all cases.

 

[Yew]

77% is cases of Indian variant not all cases.

Seek and you shall find.

 

[Ediswan]

The UK is unlucky in that the one area of healthcare spending David Cameron was willing to indulge in was genomic testing, and in that we are doing more testing per capita than virtually anybody else. The upshot is that we are far more equipped than other nations to quickly detect both meaningless variants and meaningless trends in infection.

We are lucky to have the genome testing capabilty (50% of the global total covid sequencing according to some reports). We are unlucky to have people in charge (read that how you like) who seem to be incapable of using the resulting information in a rational scientific mannner.

 

[Huntergreed]

ITV are reporting that the chance of all lockdown restrictions going on June 21st is “almost zero” due to worries surrounding the Indian variant:

The prospect of the final easing of lockdown restrictions in England going ahead precisely as planned on 21 June are close to nil, according to ministers and officials. "It is clear some social distancing will have to be retained, not everything we've set out for 21 June is likely to happen," said a government adviser. "But it is also possible some of the easing we've done today will have to be reversed."Neither he nor a minister would be drawn on precisely which parts of the planned unlocking may have to be delayed, or which aspects of unlocking that's already happened would need rolling back.

They say it's dependent on data that will become available in around a fortnight, though the final decision is still around a month away. These are the important factors (apart from the normal statistics on virus spread and incidence):1) whether surge testing and accelerated vaccination of those more at risk succeeds in bearing down on the incidence of the Indian variant;

2) the magnitude of the Indian variant's increased transmissibility;

3) the magnitude of the reduction in the effectiveness of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine on the Indian variant.

---

The health secretary said again on Monday that the evidence, from "viral neutralisation assays" taking place at Oxford, suggests the vaccines are effective against the Indian variant.

But it is important to note he did not say he is confident the AstraZeneca vaccine is as effective at reducing severe disease in those who catch the Indian variant.

I am told there are early signs that for the Indian variant the AZ vaccine may be between 10 and 15 percentage points less effective against severe disease. The efficacy of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is thought to be better.

To summarise: The AZ vaccine is still very much worth having, though it may work somewhat less well against the Indian variant.

(https://www.itv.com/news/2021-05-17...rictions-being-lifted-on-june-21-close-to-nil)

This does seem a bit preemptive, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a good degree of truth contained in it.

 

[yorksrob]

ITV are reported that the chance of all lockdown restrictions going on June 21st is “almost zero” due to worries surrounding the Indian variant:



(https://www.itv.com/news/2021-05-17...rictions-being-lifted-on-june-21-close-to-nil)

This does seem a bit preemptive, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a good degree of truth contained in it.

If this turns out to be the case, Boris had better start brushing up on his after dinner speaking, because I can't see him coming back from this.

 

[johntea]

Leeds station today...

McDonalds - Still takeaway only
Starbucks - Open (?)
KFC - Closed
Leon - Closed
Subway - Closed
Spoons - Packed!

The SSP pub and coffee shop on P15 were also still closed, are SSP still going or have they called it a day full stop?

 

[bramling]

If this turns out to be the case, Boris had better start brushing up on his after dinner speaking, because I can't see him coming back from this.

I’d like to know what they think might be reversed. Anything involving hospitality or hotels will be the final death knell for vast swathes of those sectors. And the feeling I get is most people have absolutely properly had enough now, with the current miserable weather really contributing to a depressing feeling.

 

[liam456]

What I'm thinking is that; the UK has a large Indian (South Asian) community living here, India was well known to be a problem area for a while before it was put on the red list, the UK government dithered, Heathrow is run like a petri dish, we sequence way more than anyone else, who was surpised? I would however, hate to pay the price in terms of domestic restrictions in the coming weeks for a quite easily forseeable issue. Not that I think we should, just that I think public opinion is on a knife edge at the moment!

Also, why would a potential lockdown-easing rollback happen later? When weather improves/climate warms and surge vaccinations begin to have an impact?

 

[TPO]

As a data analyst I do feel the need to fact check a very common misuse of the vaccine stats that I,ve seen released on here regularly.

Currently only 54.9% of the population have had at least one vaccine. The 70% figure is only 70% of eligible adults and excludes under 18s and also anyone that cannot have the vaccine due to medical conditions.

It's important to understand the 2 very different figures and not to confuse them as they show quite different levels of vaccinated herd immunity (not trying to get back into debate on vaccinated versus immunity from infection).

Moving onto the herd immunity comments, the herd immunity level for covid is not yet proven but 70 - 85% is commonly accepted level depending on the assumptions made in the modelling behind various studies.

As a data analyst perhaps you should also consider the impact of COVID on different age groups, the level of vaccination in each group then compare the risk of death or serious harm in each group with that from other avoidable activities such as crossing the road or falling downstairs. Or for older people, falling over.

As a control sample I suggest you use the stats for harm and death caused to each age group by the rhinoviris.

Perhaps then as a data analyst you will have enough data to analyse and draw balanced conclusions rather than cherrypicking a dataset.

TPO

 

[yorksrob]

I’d like to know what they think might be reversed. Anything involving hospitality or hotels will be the final death knell for vast swathes of those sectors. And the feeling I get is most people have absolutely properly had enough now, with the current miserable weather really contributing to a depressing feeling.

Yes, I'd like to know as well. If things do go backwards, I don't think they realise just how much they will be seen to have blown it.

 

[philosopher]

I’d like to know what they think might be reversed. Anything involving hospitality or hotels will be the final death knell for vast swathes of those sectors. And the feeling I get is most people have absolutely properly had enough now, with the current miserable weather really contributing to a depressing feeling.

Delaying the 21st June easing I can see happening. A reversal I think is very unlikely. There is a strong element of screw up here with the government being too late to put India on the red list plus Boris promised the roadmap would be irreversible. If Boris reverses the easing, I suspect Tory backbenchers will blame him for the reversal and turn on him and I think much of the public will simply ignore it making it pointless anyway.

 

[Farang]

Now reading that 'work from home where possible' guidance will be dropped on June 21st. Another positive step.

B*gger!

 

[MikeWM]

ITV are reporting that the chance of all lockdown restrictions going on June 21st is “almost zero” due to worries surrounding the Indian variant:

That's Peston, and based on his past performance over the last 4 or 5 years I'd say there's a better chance of the opposite happening from what he says will happen!

So quite reassuring really

 

[Jamesrob637]

B*gger!

So ypu want to WFH unless absolutely inevitable?

 

[Class 33]

I’d like to know what they think might be reversed. Anything involving hospitality or hotels will be the final death knell for vast swathes of those sectors. And the feeling I get is most people have absolutely properly had enough now, with the current miserable weather really contributing to a depressing feeling.

We were told by Johnson that this roadmap was cautious but irreversible! He had better not reverse it! Even without reversing it and in it's current state due to this social distancing nonsense, most businesses in the hospitality and leisure industry can't even break even financially, many are on their knees and will soon go under.

 

[westv]

That's Peston, and based on his past performance over the last 4 or 5 years I'd say there's a better chance of the opposite happening from what he says will happen!

So quite reassuring really

You mean Peeeeston?

 

[Cdd89]

Hmm. I suppose if one were prosecuted and the test was still untaken by the time the court date rolled around, the magistrates would look on the matter disfavourably. But it does seem open to someone to take it quite some time after day 8 and thereby “cure the breach”, as it were.

Failing to take the day 8 test has the more practical impact of extending one’s self-isolation period by, if memory serves, an extra four days.

Further to this, from reading other sources, it appears one credible ruse will be to take the day 2 test, and the day 5 test-to-release (avoiding the quarantine extension from failing to take the day 8 test), and then hold over the day 8 test for the next country’s pre departure testing requirements before next leaving the U.K. on another trip.

 

[bramling]

Yes, I'd like to know as well. If things do go backwards, I don't think they realise just how much they will be seen to have blown it.

He is already getting castigated for allowing people to enter the country from India. Whether that charge is entirely fair is perhaps a matter of debate, however I certainly get the feeling people are cross about it.

People are seeing a second year of their life disappearing, and whilst last year was one thing, this year is quite another matter entirely.

Having said all that, it’s the weather which is pee-ing most people off at the minute, but that comes after a pretty rough winter. I think back to my brief holiday in west Wales late last September, which wasn’t great but better than nothing, the hotel we stayed in closed at the end of the week we left, and is only now about to re-open - 7 months later. That’s a *long* time.

There’s still people who are clinging to the desire for restrictions though.

Delaying the 21st June easing I can see happening. A reversal I think is very unlikely. There is a strong element of screw up here with the government being too late to put India on the red list plus Boris promised the roadmap would be irreversible. If Boris reverses the easing, I suspect Tory backbenchers will blame him for the reversal and turn on him and I think much of the public will simply ignore it making it pointless anyway.

There’s definitely quite a bit of ignoring already going on. A lot of shops seem to have quietly dropped the person on the door, and I’m noticing a lot less mask use, including more people being quite brazen about it.

No doubt this is all a sight of horror for some, hence why we’re seeing all this fuss about the Indian variant. It’s something to latch on to.

 

[brad465]

The Daily Mail front page is suggesting that both Tory MPs and Ministers are warning Johnson not to delay easing, although more because of those not taking the vaccine than the Indian variant. The article also compares Johnson and June 21st to Theresa May and March 2019, which was the Brexit deadline that never was, suggesting missing June 21st would be his "Theresa May moment", which could be a recipe for his marching orders, especially if all the stats (bar infections maybe) are looking positive.

 

[bramling]

The Daily Mail front page is suggesting that both Tory MPs and Ministers are warning Johnson not to delay easing, although more because of those not taking the vaccine than the Indian variant. The article also compares Johnson and June 21st to Theresa May and March 2019, which was the Brexit deadline that never was, suggesting missing June 21st would be his "Theresa May moment", which could be a recipe for his marching orders, especially if all the stats (bar infections maybe) are looking positive.

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I can see how this one will be spun out of - it will all be the fault of people who have declined to be vaccinated. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought the health establishment was saying the spread is among young people - who presumably in most cases won’t have been offered a vaccine yet?

But this will prove a convenient response to the “why did Boris let people enter the country” line, which is certainly building momentum.

 

[brad465]

I can see how this one will be spun out of - it will all be the fault of people who have declined to be vaccinated. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought the health establishment was saying the spread is among young people - who presumably in most cases won’t have been offered a vaccine yet?

But this will prove a convenient response to the “why did Boris let people enter the country” line, which is certainly building momentum.

Yes there's not even that many constituting "few", from memory vaccination rates in over 50s are 94%; 100% success will never be achieved in any area of life for anything, but what we have achieved is remarkably good.

The fact everyone is calling this the "Indian variant" is certainly what's driving the border's criticism and there won't be any escaping this particular factor for Johnson.

 

[MikeWM]

I can see how this one will be spun out of - it will all be the fault of people who have declined to be vaccinated. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought the health establishment was saying the spread is among young people - who presumably in most cases won’t have been offered a vaccine yet?

But this will prove a convenient response to the “why did Boris let people enter the country” line, which is certainly building momentum.

Indeed - continuing with the 'divide and rule' tactics we've seen all along, we can turn on each other and not direct our anger where it should be going.

Also this wave of propaganda against the unvaccinated, stirring up fear and anger and 'othering' them, is going to be an oh-so-convenient hook for Michael Gove to roll-out his domestic vaccine passports in a few weeks time.

 

[bramling]

Indeed - continuing with the 'divide and rule' tactics we've seen all along, we can turn on each other and not direct our anger where it should be going.

Also this wave of propaganda against the unvaccinated, stirring up fear and anger and 'othering' them, is going to be an oh-so-convenient hook for Michael Gove to roll-out his domestic vaccine passports in a few weeks time.

Yes unfortunately it will be a good wheeze for making out that unvaccinated people are filth that shouldn’t be allowed out of their homes. At times it’s really feeling like we’ve undone years of human development in the space of a year, especially in terms of attitudes and behaviours.