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Telegraph reporting 50-60% of services to be cut due to impact of covid

Bikeman78

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I wouldn't assume that any of these are going to happen. These will just be the dates up until which the amended timetable has currently been entered into the system. That can readily be extended if the paymasters want it.
Agreed. There is talk of the "stay at home" instruction ending on March 29th so likely that the service will go back to the December 2020 plan from that date. Might have to bring out some emergency Pacers!
 
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dan5324

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According to the journey planner, TfW are reinstating at least some of their services that were cut in January from the 1st March; including restoring an hourly Manchester to Chester frequency. Northern too are reinstating cut services from 8th March. Earlier than I expected!

Avanti currently down for 27th March for the resumption of their normal timetable.
Hmm same time that nat ex are due to restart services. Seems like someone is pulling the strings then
 

Huntergreed

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According to the journey planner, TfW are reinstating at least some of their services that were cut in January from the 1st March; including restoring an hourly Manchester to Chester frequency. Northern too are reinstating cut services from 8th March. Earlier than I expected!

Avanti currently down for 27th March for the resumption of their normal timetable.
By 'normal' do you mean 'COVID' normal or normal (ie reinstation of the 2 Scotland services per hour, 3 manchesters, 3 brums per hour)
 

Class 466

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Southeastern's new timetable started today, Off Peak Charing X Mainline services reduced from 6tph to 1tph towards Ashford and 1tph towards Hastings, Maidstone East line reduced to 1tph too with formations reduced to just 4 cars for most of the day (some, but not all 8s in the peak). What a contrast to what was a network of crowded 12 car trains running frequently in the peaks. Metro still running longer formations. Majority of HS1 services all single units with only a couple of 12 cars.
 

Horizon22

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Southeastern's new timetable started today, Off Peak Charing X Mainline services reduced from 6tph to 1tph towards Ashford and 1tph towards Hastings, Maidstone East line reduced to 1tph too with formations reduced to just 4 cars for most of the day (some, but not all 8s in the peak). What a contrast to what was a network of crowded 12 car trains running frequently in the peaks. Metro still running longer formations. Majority of HS1 services all single units with only a couple of 12 cars.

I am surprised its that low, even in the interim for 1 an hour. Quite a reduction. I guess its that the metro services will have the key workers on them, the mainline trains from Sevenoaks / Ashford / Tunbridge Wells have the home workers not travelling.
 

Jamesrob637

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Time to ramp things back up from March until June/July! Back to the December '19 timetable will probably be sufficient at first, however things such as the extra Manchester to Chester via Altrincham and enhanced Sunday service won't go amiss either!
 

Bald Rick

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According to the journey planner, TfW are reinstating at least some of their services that were cut in January from the 1st March; including restoring an hourly Manchester to Chester frequency. Northern too are reinstating cut services from 8th March. Earlier than I expected!

Avanti currently down for 27th March for the resumption of their normal timetable.
Avanti shows 6tph until the May timetable change.

Most of the May timetables are published in a couple of weeks, so you will see what happens then.

All to bear in mind that the current reduced timetables, ie reductions on the Dec ‘20 timetable, are only being planned a few weeks in advance. Anything before the next main timetable change on March 29th is subject to change at shortish notice, as indeed is anything after that.


Back to the December '19 timetable will probably be sufficient at first

December ‘19 would be rather over sufficient. December ‘20 however...
 
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Philip

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By 'normal' do you mean 'COVID' normal or normal (ie reinstation of the 2 Scotland services per hour, 3 manchesters, 3 brums per hour)

Avanti shows 6tph until the May timetable change.

Most of the May timetables are published in a couple of weeks, so you will see what happens then.

All to bear in mind that the current reduced timetables, ie reductions on the Dec ‘20 timetable, are only being planned a few weeks in advance. Anything before the next main timetable change on March 29th is subject to change at shortish notice, as indeed is anything after that.




December ‘19 would be rather over sufficient. December ‘20 however...

Referring to the December '20 timetable.

I thought Avanti were considering keeping it to two Manchester trains on a permanent basis?
 

Jamesrob637

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So maybe this thread should now be renamed "Timetable uplifting post-lockdown" or similar.

Around Manchester, the following should take effect from the 8th of March in stages:

Northern increase services back to at least hourly on all routes and run as long trains as possible. Nothing should be booked 2-car.
EMR and TPE both revert to hourly; TPE being booked 6-car (South and some of North) or Nova (most of North) and EMR being booked 4-car.
Avanti revert to 2tph London, reinstating that via Crewe and inserting the Milton Keynes or Macclesfield stop into that via Stoke so that all stations including Wilmslow have a minimum hourly service to/from London. The stops in the Trent Valley can be removed as another Avanti or LNWR can pick those up. At least one should be booked an 11-car Pendolino.
TfW have remained hourly in their defence so no changes needed there. Maybe use 2x2-car 175s on some services though.
XC is a tough one. They definitely need to revert to double sets on what is currently running (the ex-Bournemouth/Reading) but the Bristols/Exeters need to return at some point too, which would see some of the Readings/Bournemouths go down to single sets. Tricky one. You'd have the same net capacity but split over more frequent and shorter services
 

Watershed

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So maybe this thread should now be renamed "Timetable uplifting post-lockdown" or similar.

Around Manchester, the following should take effect from the 8th of March in stages:

Northern increase services back to at least hourly on all routes and run as long trains as possible. Nothing should be booked 2-car.
EMR and TPE both revert to hourly; TPE being booked 6-car (South and some of North) or Nova (most of North) and EMR being booked 4-car.
Avanti revert to 2tph London, reinstating that via Crewe and inserting the Milton Keynes or Macclesfield stop into that via Stoke so that all stations including Wilmslow have a minimum hourly service to/from London. The stops in the Trent Valley can be removed as another Avanti or LNWR can pick those up. At least one should be booked an 11-car Pendolino.
TfW have remained hourly in their defence so no changes needed there. Maybe use 2x2-car 175s on some services though.
XC is a tough one. They definitely need to revert to double sets on what is currently running (the ex-Bournemouth/Reading) but the Bristols/Exeters need to return at some point too, which would see some of the Readings/Bournemouths go down to single sets. Tricky one. You'd have the same net capacity but split over more frequent and shorter services
The only change likely to happen on 8 March is the addition or reinstatement of a handful of services for school traffic. For those TOCs that have reduced their timetables below the December timetable, 29 March is the earliest I can foresee the latter resuming.

XC running twice hourly again is unlikely to happen until September at the earliest. As you say, they can't spare more than 2 sets an hour given the pre-Covid frequencies elsewhere on their network, so I think 1tph, doubled up, will return and subsequently remain for some time to come.

TfW have never had the stock to run Manchester-Cardiff (and beyond) with double sets. That will need to wait until they get their new stock.

With the withdrawal of the Pacers, some Northern services will have to be 2-car if they are to resume something nearer their December (let alone pre-Covid) timetable.
 
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Carlisle

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So maybe this thread should now be renamed "Timetable uplifting post-lockdown" or similar.

Around Manchester, the following should take effect from the 8th of March in stages
Apart from services popular with School children it’ll hardly be worth reinstating much else until at least the stay at home order is lifted & even then it’ll likely be fairly quiet until town centres reopen .
 

Jamesrob637

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April 12th is a key date for city centres (and suburbia, to an extent) with pubs and restaurants scheduled for reopening in outdoor areas, and non-essential retail likewise. Although the high street has lost a few names in recent years, non-essential retail and eating/drinking still constitutes most of a city centre's footfall outside of office hours.

Therefore, 29th of March for uplifts would be very sensible, as that's only a fortnight before, and actually only eight working days. We don't want to be in the predicament of rammed trains in April and May, when TOCs do not have the excuse that they didn't know about this back in late-February.

One other thing that needs to happen - last trains need to go back to pre-COVID times, given that there will be no 10pm/11pm rule anymore.
 
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HST43257

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XC is a tough one. They definitely need to revert to double sets on what is currently running (the ex-Bournemouth/Reading) but the Bristols/Exeters need to return at some point too, which would see some of the Readings/Bournemouths go down to single sets. Tricky one. You'd have the same net capacity but split over more frequent and shorter services
I don’t believe there is much wrong with the current timetable in terms of being able to get places, perhaps just with an extra change or slower journey (due to extra stops covering lost services).

1tph Edinburgh to Plymouth
1tph Manchester to Bournemouth
1tph Birmingham to Cambridge
1tph Cardiff to Nottingham


Wasn’t there a speculative thread for this?
 

Class 466

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It’s the case that both GTR & SE are currently planning on keeping their weekday service the same now until May. The timetables introduced on 22 February catered for schools returning already. Weekends are far less reduced on both operators anyway.
 
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It’s the case that both GTR & SE are currently planning on keeping their weekday service the same now until May. The timetables introduced on 22 February catered for schools returning already. Weekends are far less reduced on both operators anyway.
Weekends weren't reduced at all and won't be either.
 

Class 466

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Weekends weren't reduced at all and won't be either.
Both operators have removed some duplicated service groups at weekends. Although given this is normally a busier time of year for Engineering Works, it’s often not that noticeable anyway.
 

Watershed

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April 12th is a key date for city centres (and suburbia, to an extent) with pubs and restaurants scheduled for reopening in outdoor areas, and non-essential retail likewise. Although the high street has lost a few names in recent years, non-essential retail and eating/drinking still constitutes most of a city centre's footfall outside of office hours.

Therefore, 29th of March for uplifts would be very sensible, as that's only a fortnight before, and actually only eight working days. We don't want to be in the predicament of rammed trains in April and May, when TOCs do not have the excuse that they didn't know about this back in late-February.

One other thing that needs to happen - last trains need to go back to pre-COVID times, given that there will be no 10pm/11pm rule anymore.
It's outside the control of the TOCs - the DfT is calling the shots on this. I expect they will be reluctant to authorise anything they see as increasing costs (even though with the current industry setup, scaling up or down the timetable makes comparatively little difference to costs).

I think it will take lots of reports of socially distanced capacity being breached before things improve in that respect. As for last trains, again I think that's just wishful thinking.
 

Horizon22

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It seems the industry has finally made a wider statement regarding train services after lockdown is lifted. To be fair 10% sounds like a reasonable and appropriate amount - so long as it is targeted towards areas such as excess London & SE commuter trains. This would improve performance times without a drastic reduction in provision to passengers. And it may allow longer coaches instead of an additional service, which would definitely be welcome for Northern cities.


Around 10% fewer train services should run once the country opens up again, compared to the pre-pandemic timetable, the chairman of Network Rail has said. The old pattern of five days of peak commuter travel may not return, Sir Peter Hendy warned the the National Rail Recovery conference. Instead, leisure travel might boost weekend traffic, especially if limits on international travel continue.

Commuter traffic could return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, he suggested. "The service doesn't run better if you put too many trains on the track. We've proved that," said Sir Peter. "You shouldn't try to get more out of the infrastructure than it can give you. All of my experience is that people prefer reliability to journey time."
 

cuccir

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Presumably the infrastrucutre, staff, engines and carriages which were being provided for the 2019-level service are still there? So really it becomes about financial viability: at what level of capacity, compared to 2019, can those services run and still be financially viable?

The timing of lockdown release means that relaxation of rules will segue into lower summer numbers anyway, and I suspect there'll be a lot of people like me who continue to work from home in summer but imagine we'll go in more in autumn. I think we'll see commuter numbers remain low, and then a big jump up in September - but the quesiton is to what % ?
 

Simon11

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I expect that where services are cut, the rolling stock will be reallocated to that route. Seems rather unfair for a route to lose services and rolling stock too! Plus the practical side too?
 

Horizon22

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Presumably the infrastrucutre, staff, engines and carriages which were being provided for the 2019-level service are still there? So really it becomes about financial viability: at what level of capacity, compared to 2019, can those services run and still be financially viable?

The timing of lockdown release means that relaxation of rules will segue into lower summer numbers anyway, and I suspect there'll be a lot of people like me who continue to work from home in summer but imagine we'll go in more in autumn. I think we'll see commuter numbers remain low, and then a big jump up in September - but the quesiton is to what % ?

Well if international travel remains subdued, it may not necessarily be a lower summer. I remember seeing packed trains to the coast last year. Albeit its - as Hendy suggested - skewed towards a leisure market. Can they make up the gulf in commuter traffic? That remains to be seen I suppose.
 

packermac

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To me still sounds not a big enough reduction in the commuter flows, as I suspect many will not return to daily commuting due to job losses of Finance Directors seeing big savings from staff at home more than in the office.
But it is a start, so we have to see how it goes.
 

yorksrob

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As always, it depends on which services and where.

There shouldn't be any reductions to stations which are already hourly or less. The aim should be for a usable all-day service.

Interestingly, the big cheese at Goldman Sachs has been saying that he'll be aiming to bring staff back to the office pretty comprehensively after the pandemic, so maybe weekly commuting isn't as dead as presumed ?
 

Horizon22

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As always, it depends on which services and where.

There shouldn't be any reductions to stations which are already hourly or less. The aim should be for a usable all-day service.

Interestingly, the big cheese at Goldman Sachs has been saying that he'll be aiming to bring staff back to the office pretty comprehensively after the pandemic, so maybe weekly commuting isn't as dead as presumed ?

I saw this as well and was rather surprised we went as far as describing WFH as an "abberation"! I guess it depends what sector you're in - friends of mine in the finance sector have told me their employees are itching to returning back to work ASAP. Whereas other industries traditionally less rigid (tech, media etc.) are much more open to allowing employees to permanently WFH, if that's what they want.
 

yorksrob

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I saw this as well and was rather surprised we went as far as describing WFH as an "abberation"! I guess it depends what sector you're in - friends of mine in the finance sector have told me their employees are itching to returning back to work ASAP. Whereas other industries traditionally less rigid (tech, media etc.) are much more open to allowing employees to permanently WFH, if that's what they want.

Yes, it's funny in a way, as I'd have thought that some of those "new" industries would require more collaberation in an office !

My employer's likely to go half rice/half chips, primarily as a cost saving measure.
 

JakeMurphy

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It seems the industry has finally made a wider statement regarding train services after lockdown is lifted. To be fair 10% sounds like a reasonable and appropriate amount - so long as it is targeted towards areas such as excess London & SE commuter trains. This would improve performance times without a drastic reduction in provision to passengers. And it may allow longer coaches instead of an additional service, which would definitely be welcome for Northern cities.

So it sounds like he wants passengers back sooner rather than later!
 

PeterC

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I saw this as well and was rather surprised we went as far as describing WFH as an "abberation"! I guess it depends what sector you're in - friends of mine in the finance sector have told me their employees are itching to returning back to work ASAP. Whereas other industries traditionally less rigid (tech, media etc.) are much more open to allowing employees to permanently WFH, if that's what they want.
One concern that he expressed was on-the-job training for new entrants.
 

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