Telegraph reporting 50-60% of services to be cut due to impact of covid

[21C101]

Better still if you could actually work from the pub!

Not in this industry.

I'm wondering how long it will be before random visits to homes by drug and alcohol testers commence.

 

[dk1]

Better still if you could actually work from the pub!

Ironically that was on the local news a few months back. People working from home could set up in the pub as long as they had breakfast &/or bought drinks. They got use of wifi, got out of the house & have others around them so more like an office atmosphere. Just the job!

 

[philosopher]

Rail bosses fear that the restrictions will lead to a repeat of passenger numbers falling by 95pc, as happened in March. “Supply and demand are poles apart,” said one senior industry source.

I wonder how much rail use will fall this time. I cannot imagine it falling by the 95% of the first lockdown for three reasons.

First during the first lockdown a lot of businesses and industries shut down that did not need to. This probably will not happen as much this time so there will be more commuting. Second support bubbles remain in place, which was not case last March / April, which will add a bit rail use. Third people are not as afraid of Covid as they were before so they may use the railways to go for exercise. Perhaps a 80% to 90% fall compared to pre pandemic levels is more likely.

 

[AM9]

But where does that stop from an employers point of view. If a job can be done entirely remotely then why not see if someone in Eastern Europe or India will do it for 1/4 of the price?

From an employers point of view, it stops where it no longer benefits the business. Each business has a different view of remote working, on the one hand there are employers that manage people who they trust and are motivated by the independance that homeworking gives them. At another extreme, there a management who have no trust in their employees unless thay can see them. That can reveal inadequacies in the management and/or the job itself as much as there being unreliable and untrustworthy employees.
The fact is that there is no one size fits all, yet this global crisis has forced remote working on a scale previously unimaginable. The fact that the data infrastructure that has grown over recent years has allowed this to succeed relatively well has let the cat out of the bag. Sceptics can no longer sit by the wayside an say that it would never work.
Major events like this cause unexpected changes to society and industry, - just like with wars, necessity is the mother of invention.
The travel industry as a whole will just have to recognise this as a 'new normal'.

 

[dk1]

Not in this industry.

Well we take our PNBs & do occasional meetings with managers in Wetherspoons over breakfast.

 

[Fokx]

Is the lockdown going to affect on board services again?

Such as first class catering, availability of a shop/buffet counter, guards checking tickets etc?

The short answer to that is yes, we’ve been advised not to carry out revenue duties, and only go down the train where socially distancing and passenger co-operation with travel rules such as the use of face covering is followed

 

[dk1]

No plans to reduce current service levels at Greater Anglia yet although loadings are (& always have been) being monitored.

 

[yorksrob]

That too. Or watch a film, or go to the gym/for a swim.....

Yeah, those things as well !

Better still if you could actually work from the pub!

I was once told of a manager in my organisation that used to do that in the 1970's.

I personally require a clear head until I clock off !

 

[Ianno87]

Better still if you could actually work from the pub!

A pub near me was offering, for £15, a day of unlimited coffee and wi-fi, plus brunch.

 

[21C101]

Well we take our PNBs & do occasional meetings with managers in Wetherspoons over breakfast.

When the new D&A rules came in in the '90s it was drilled into us that going into a licenced premises and not consuming alcohol, while not strictly speaking prohibited, was basically extemely unwise and could well get you a "please explain" or a "due cause" D&A test if the wrong person saw you.

 

[Class 170101]

Details of long term effect won't be evident until at least 6 months after the ceasation of all restrictions - so likely this time next year.

Chris Whitty said there could still be restrictions this time next year this afternoon at the 5pm press conference. I think long term effect assessment is probably 18 months away at least.

This is certainly a factor. Homeworking was a lot more tolerable when you could dissappear off to a pub or restaurant of an evening.

Depends if you prefer to disappear off to a restaurant with co-workers or your partner / family and may also depend on the scenario which applies at any given moment in time.

 

[dk1]

When the new D&A rules came in in the '90s it was drilled into us that going into a licenced premises and not consuming alcohol, while not strictly speaking prohibited, was basically extemely unwise and could well get you a "please explain" or a "due cause" D&A test if the wrong person saw you.

Tell me about it, I was there too & very annoyed that BR dared to tell me where I could & couldnt go for lunch. Thankfully things are far more sensible now that pubs serve tea, coffee & cake & Spoons daytimes is basically a cafe bar.

 

[Boo_]

We were told not to use Toilets in pubs when in unform as they would then have to come test you if reported. Did not stop me setting up office in a pub mind you when I had 1 coach every 2 hrs when I did Rail Replacement n a tiny village in the peaks for 14hrs. I been in a pub and seen Northern Rail Staff having food at Wetherspoons. you would think pubs would not serve them anyway if they was drinking on duty.

 

[dk1]

We were told not to use Toilets in pubs when in unform as they would then have to come test you if reported. Did not stop me setting up office in a pub mind you when I had 1 coach every 2 hrs when I did Rail Replacement n a tiny village in the peaks for 14hrs. I been in a pub and seen Northern Rail Staff having food at Wetherspoons. you would think pubs would not serve them anyway if they was drinking on duty.

Why would pubs care if they are drinking on duty? Not that they would be anyway.

 

[Philip]

Do Northern need to cut any services? So many of the diagrams are running as double units and as a result lightly loaded. If they just reduce these to running with single units then a lot of them will have reasonable loadings.

 

[bramling]

Why would pubs care if they are drinking on duty? Not that they would be anyway.

I’m sure there used to be a thing where people used to say don’t go into a Wetherspoon in uniform or with uniform showing under any circumstances.

No idea why they were singled out.

 

[infobleep]

No doubt once again it'll take far too long for most operators to return to any sort of useful service after the restrictions begin to ease.

I do hope Reading to Gatwick Airport services aren't terminated at Redhill like they were previously.

At least this time I've found a ticket that allows me to travel via Clapham Junction when I wish to travel between Guildford and Haywards Heath, whilst still wanting the flexibility to go via Redhill if I wish.

 

[Halish Railway]

Do Northern need to cut any services? So many of the diagrams are running as double units and as a result lightly loaded. If they just reduce these to running with single units then a lot of them will have reasonable loadings.

By running the same timetable Northern will still require as many staff which in a time of rising infections and therefore more staff isolating would not be feasible.

 

[infobleep]

Yeah, I think once things are back to normal, rail use will return ~80% of 2019 levels, so about 2010-2011 levels. Now I don't recall 2010 being some really sparse timetable on these sorts of routes.

And I for one am working from home and am thoroughly sick of it, as are most others at my company.

The timetable may not have been sparse in some areas but others it was. If the timetable did reduce by that amount, at least there would be more rolling stock to use on it.

Back in 2010/11 some trains were overcrowded and in some cases you couldn't board them if you didn't stand on the right spot on the platform. This was in London and included one or more toutes where there was only 1 direct trian an hour!

RICF meeting scheduled for Thursday...no doubt it’ll be discussed.

What was RICF stand for?

That's quite possibly true. One thing I do find is that if I'm working from home I quite fancy travel at the weekend, but if I'm commuting I very much don't.

I loved commuting by train and travelling at weekends. Every non commute journey was seen as a nice bonus free journey.

Without a season ticket I travel less as each journey costs.

However my desire to go into an office is only driven by there being other colleagues to meet in said office. Also if I base my place of work as my home, then occasional travel into an office will be paid for by work.

Thus I can't see myself having a commuting season ticket again. I do have a season ticket but just the cheapest one that gets me a gold card.

 

[tpfx89]

RICF

Rail Industry Coronavirus Forum I believe

 

[The Ham]

Yeah, I think once things are back to normal, rail use will return ~80% of 2019 levels, so about 2010-2011 levels. Now I don't recall 2010 being some really sparse timetable on these sorts of routes.

And I for one am working from home and am thoroughly sick of it, as are most others at my company.

That sounds about right.

66% of rail travel is commuting, therefore to see a 20% fall there'd be a need for commuting to fall by nearly a third.

Whilst easily a third of people will likely WFH, that only works if they are always WFH, if the go to the office an average of 1 day a week then it would require nearly 40% of people to do so.

However the average is probably likely to be higher than that (even those who go one day a week every week will find that they would likely go on a few extra times a year as well) especially given that many would be looking to do 2 or 3 days a week in the office as an average.

Whilst commuting into London is likely to be hit harder, those commuting up to 5 stops along a line (average rail commutes are about 20 miles) are likely to find the cost & time savings wouldn't be so great and so may not be so keen to WFH.

Likewise there's a fair amount of student (often 6th form aged and day pupils at private schools) related commuting on certain areas and along certain lines, which would limit the numbers who commute who would stop using the trains.

As an example I used to catch a train at about 3pm (having left London Waterloo before that) which was busy enough that there were people standing (there may have just been enough seats for everyone but probably only just). OK it was only 4 coaches long, but a reduction in commuting is unlikely to have much of an impact on the loading of that service and others like it going forwards.

As to what services are likely to change currently, I suspect that InterCity services would be most in the firing line, perhaps with those which remain being slowed down by calling at additional stops and so used to maintain service frequencies between key locations whilst cutting services.

As an example GWR could cut the services which are semi fast and call at Slough by adding key stations to the Cornwall services, likewise adding a few stops to the Cornwall services to allow the removal of the Exeter semi fasts. This may add up to 40 minutes to the journey time between London and Plymouth, but very few should be doing that anyway.

In doing so it makes that service a train which is there for a series of short journeys rather than to serve the long distance passenger market.

Ona similar vien you could cut the Basingstoke stoppers and add those stops to the services which normally fast, again it would slow journey times between Basingstoke and South/West of there and London, however the extra delay for the few who make long trips would be fairly small, but could allow a better than 1tph service (maybe not 2tph, but by stop/skipping most stations could see a 1.5tph service, which would still be much reduced to the 4tph at peak times), meaning that people still use rail.

 

[infobleep]

Rail Industry Coronavirus Forum I believe

Thanks.

Will the TOCs just pull out the timetables from the first lockdown or will they learn what from what they did then and since then, to provide a timetable that is helpful for passengers now? Even if it takes longer to implement?

In lockdown 1, South Western Railway didn't run any trains from Wanborough, which didn't help anyone living their needing to get to somewhere else. Some of these people might be key workers. There was a local bus but apparently it didn't run from near the station.

That's just one example. I'm sure others could be found.

Great Western Railway not running to Gatwick Airport wasn't helpful. This continued until mid September too, long after lockdown ended. This was required due train service changes on other routes but those couldn't be reinstated until mid September.

Some trains have already stopped running. No longer do the additional fast Reading to Redhill services run, in addition to the fats Reading to Gatwick Airport service. That's understandable.

 

[dan5324]

The beginning of the end of rail travel as we know it. It’s gonna take a loooooong time to recover now. Can see the car staying king for a long time.

 

[RichardKing]

Chris Whitty said there could still be restrictions this time next year this afternoon at the 5pm press conference. I think long term effect assessment is probably 18 months away at least.

I think that'll just be encouragement to wear a face covering next winter, especially if we're still seeing the odd Covid case pop up. There will be no justification for anything as tough as we've had to endure.

 

[The Ham]

The beginning of the end of rail travel as we know it. It’s gonna take a loooooong time to recover now. Can see the car staying king for a long time.

Maybe, however car travel (at least for multi car households) may be hit hard by WFH (why own two cars when you both WFH 3 days a week?). However in doing that it may require some rail travel a few times a year when both want to go to different places.

Whilst that's not likely to replace all the lost rail travel, there's a lot more car travel than rail travel and so even a tiny shift from road to rail would limit the fall seen by rail.

A person doing a 200 mile round trip would replace one person commuting 20 miles each way for a week. 9 people doing that 5 times a year and you've recovered one person who has totally speed using the railway for the 20 miles each way commute.

Likewise cars are expensive to own and don't see costs fall very much when you reduce millages; so it may well be that (whilst it might be slightly cheaper to drive if you're going in every day) overall it's cheaper to use trains when you need them rather than pay for a car which sits on the driveway for days at a time not being used.

I think that'll just be encouragement to wear a face covering next winter, especially if we're still seeing the odd Covid case pop up. There will be no justification for anything as tough as we've had to endure.

There may be some additional restrictions, but probably localised and probably more in line with the restrictions in the summer.

However there may be restrictions associated with international travel (such as testing upon return).

 

[Yew]

I think that'll just be encouragement to wear a face covering next winter, especially if we're still seeing the odd Covid case pop up. There will be no justification for anything as tough as we've had to endure.

There was no justification for throwing decades of pandemic planning out, in favour of untested and cruel lockdowns; but that didn't stop them.

 

[dk1]

I’m sure there used to be a thing where people used to say don’t go into a Wetherspoon in uniform or with uniform showing under any circumstances.

No idea why they were singled out.

Never heard of that. It's the perfect place for breakfast & unlimited coffee during extended PNBs. Wouldnt dream of drinking alcohol in my uniform at any time when off duty.

 

[scrapy]

Northern have advised the unions that they are to drop to around 65% of normal services from next week with timetables to be released on Friday. They have enough staff to forfil the current timetable even with shielding, current isolation and sickness levels, however this is at the request of the DFT.

Almost all training will continue.

 

[Jamiescott1]

I expect a know the answer to this, but...

Is there a case of getting a rebate on my season ticket if services are reduced by 50% as I won't be offered the full range of services as when u brought my season ticket and my daily commute could take longer ?

 

[Hadders]

If services are cut then there is an argument that the routeing guide should allow additional easements and more flexibility around the routes you can take etc.