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the most over the top restrictions introduced

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DelayRepay

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Where would we get these alleged “mobile classrooms” from, who would staff them, how would they travel around the place, and where would they be placed for each school?
Where there is a will, there is a way. They don't have to be mobile classrooms, they could be church halls of other buildings. But as I said, the problem isn't really buildings it's a lack of spare teachers.
 
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DB

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Where there is a will, there is a way. They don't have to be mobile classrooms, they could be church halls of other buildings. But as I said, the problem isn't really buildings it's a lack of spare teachers.

There are not enough venues such as church halls for this to work.
 

takno

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Where there is a will, there is a way. They don't have to be mobile classrooms, they could be church halls of other buildings. But as I said, the problem isn't really buildings it's a lack of spare teachers.
I don't think there is a will, and I don't think there should be. As to the lack of teachers, they'll probably suggest bringing the army in to do a spot of babysitting next
 

Skimpot flyer

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Why are we speculating about schools?
Either the risk to (and from) school-age children is negligible, or it isn’t. If the former, keep the schools open. If the latter, they must close, not have classes spread over longer hours or more days.
 

Bletchleyite

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No, lockdown is the level 5 action. Assuming Boris doesn't make something up. Level 4 is "Social distancing continues".

We never reached level 5. Level 5 would have been "proper lockdown", i.e. not even going out to exercise because if the NHS is overwhelmed you don't want, e.g., the small amount of extra accidents you get from cycling or similar. March/April's lockdown was level 4.

Why are we speculating about schools?
Either the risk to (and from) school-age children is negligible, or it isn’t. If the former, keep the schools open. If the latter, they must close, not have classes spread over longer hours or more days.

I think you miss why you'd split them - by reducing the number of kids in school you could viably space them all out by 2m.
 

Skimpot flyer

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I’m surprised that it’s not being portrayed as ‘transitioning to Level 4’, given that we are not being advised to Stay Home etc

although in Brighton bus shelters, the digital ad shelters are still displaying that message!
 

Huntergreed

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I’m surprised that it’s not being portrayed as ‘transitioning to Level 4’, given that we are not being advised to Stay Home etc

although in Brighton bus shelters, the digital ad shelters are still displaying that message!
If you think about it, the 'alert' level actually only tells you the direction of restrictions changes (ie more stringent or less stringent), rather than what measures will be imposed. Level 4 is stated as 'social distancing continues', meaning the current restrictions stay and some more are made, level 3 is stated as a 'gradual relaxation', meaning as time goes on restrictions are eased. It's really meaningless, and I imagine it was done to try and make people think 'oh this is getting serious now', if anyone still believes what they say.
 

trebor79

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Why are we speculating about schools?
Either the risk to (and from) school-age children is negligible, or it isn’t. If the former, keep the schools open. If the latter, they must close, not have classes spread over longer hours or more days.
Disagree. This is not Ebola. Schools must not close again under any circumstances. If we carry on like that we won't be able to develop vaccines or do complicated statistical analysis in the future because the workforce won't be sufficiently educated.
Interrupting education is a very perilous road to go down.
Boris should be as steadfast in that as he was about not extending the Brexit negotiations even if covid interrupted then. I didn't agree with that position at all, but it would be appropriate for education.

If you think about it, the 'alert' level actually only tells you the direction of restrictions changes (ie more stringent or less stringent), rather than what measures will be imposed. Level 4 is stated as 'social distancing continues', meaning the current restrictions stay and some more are made, level 3 is stated as a 'gradual relaxation', meaning as time goes on restrictions are eased. It's really meaningless, and I imagine it was done to try and make people think 'oh this is getting serious now', if anyone still believes what they say.
Will yes, arguably we should have gone to 4 when masks were introduced, or the rule of 6.
 

MattA7

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Is the reason the hospital admission/fatality Rate lower unfortunately a time delay or is there other more positive reasons behind this. (For example the virus Is becoming less lethal)

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LAX54

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See they are still saying 'from any cause in past 28 days' where Covid is detected. also from Thursday all Pubs etc to shut by 2200 (well all of the hospitality sector)
 

DB

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See they are still saying 'from any cause in past 28 days' where Covid is detected. also from Thursday all Pubs etc to shut by 2200 (well all of the hospitality sector)

Expect the pubs to be busier than usual from 7 or 8 onwards then!
 

LAX54

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Disagree. This is not Ebola. Schools must not close again under any circumstances. If we carry on like that we won't be able to develop vaccines or do complicated statistical analysis in the future because the workforce won't be sufficiently educated.
Interrupting education is a very perilous road to go down.
Boris should be as steadfast in that as he was about not extending the Brexit negotiations even if covid interrupted then. I didn't agree with that position at all, but it would be appropriate for education.


Will yes, arguably we should have gone to 4 when masks were introduced, or the rule of 6.

Surely the 'Rule of 6' means absoloutley nothing in reality ? you can meet and have a coffee with 5 others at 1130, then another coffee, with 5 others at 1140 ! so there's 12 in the mix within 10 to 15 mins
 

BJames

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Expect the pubs to be busier than usual from 7 or 8 onwards then!
Exactly. Yet another nonsense policy as people will just shift their schedules back by a few hours and continue with their drinking at home. Pubs may lose out a bit but probably will just find themselves busier at around 8pm.
 

Skimpot flyer

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See they are still saying 'from any cause in past 28 days' where Covid is detected.
See the Media thread!
So if you test positive, even with a very mild case, but die in a car crash on the way home from the test, you’re included in the coronavirus death toll??
 

LAX54

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See the Media thread!
So if you test positive, even with a very mild case, but die in a car crash on the way home from the test, you’re included in the coronavirus death toll??
Think that is the way it goes ! bloke at work said, if you get shot on the way home with an AK47, that would go down as Covid related :) the dozen bullet holes would not count
 

MattA7

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I wonder how long after a positive test it would go down as a covid death 1 week, 6 months later?
 

DelayRepay

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I wonder how long after a positive test it would go down as a covid death 1 week, 6 months later?
It's 28 days (in England - as with most things it may be slightly different if you live in one of the other parts of the UK). It was originally any period but they realised that was silly and changed it - removing thousands of deaths from the totals at the same time.

We are straying from the thread topic now so I will return to the topic by saying that an online conference I was supposed to be attending next week has been cancelled due to the possibility of further Covid-19 restrictions!
 

Bantamzen

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There is a 3-4 week delay between cases and deaths.

Cases started to rise in early July, we are now almost in October way past that 3-4 week lag. So something else might just be going on, say that a lower proportion of people catching the virus are needing hospital treatment and are far less susceptible to fall victim to it.
 

trebor79

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There is a 3-4 week delay between cases and deaths.
People keep saying that, but if you look at the charts for the first wave that were in the post you were replying to, there in no such lag.
Surely the 'Rule of 6' means absoloutley nothing in reality ? you can meet and have a coffee with 5 others at 1130, then another coffee, with 5 others at 1140 ! so there's 12 in the mix within 10 to 15 mins
Yes. Already examples of people holding multiple children's birthday parties, for example.
 

adc82140

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Where would we get these alleged “mobile classrooms” from, who would staff them, how would they travel around the place, and where would they be placed for each school?
Strategic reserve. They are all kept in a cavern accessible only from a tunnel somewhere in Wiltshire.
 

talldave

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Cases started to rise in early July, we are now almost in October way past that 3-4 week lag. So something else might just be going on, say that a lower proportion of people catching the virus are needing hospital treatment and are far less susceptible to fall victim to it.
You're being distracted by facts! Project Fear relies on scary graphs and talk of large numbers. You mustn't, whatever you do, mention that nearly 1700 people die every day, day in, day out. Otherwise people might ask why we're crippling the country over 11 deaths a day.
 

Bletchleyite

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You're being distracted by facts! Project Fear relies on scary graphs and talk of large numbers. You mustn't, whatever you do, mention that nearly 1700 people die every day, day in, day out. Otherwise people might ask why we're crippling the country over 11 deaths a day.

Anyone who says this clearly doesn't understand how (and how quickly) exponential growth works. It wouldn't be 11 deaths a day if it was left to run.
 

talldave

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Anyone who says this clearly doesn't understand how (and how quickly) exponential growth works. It wouldn't be 11 deaths a day if it was left to run.
I know that, but compare this wave's point on the curve with the last wave's daily death toll at this case level - we're 100s out. But Facebook Karens react as if we're still at that level. The case increases in large sections of the country levelled off almost two weeks ago - explain the justification for lockdown 2 again?
 

Bletchleyite

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I know that, but compare this wave's point on the curve with the last wave's daily death toll at this case level - we're 100s out. But Facebook Karens react as if we're still at that level. The case increases in large sections of the country levelled off almost two weeks ago - explain the justification for lockdown 2 again?

It seems there isn't going to be a "lockdown 2", just a slight tightening, so that isn't really relevant.

It's less about level than growth, to be honest. If we let the brakes off too much it shoots up exponentially.
 

Domh245

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Is the reason the hospital admission/fatality Rate lower unfortunately a time delay or is there other more positive reasons behind this. (For example the virus Is becoming less lethal)

Because the first 'peak' was done with much fewer tests, grossly underestimating the actual number of cases compared to the hospitalisations and fatalities.
 

Scrotnig

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Anyone who says this clearly doesn't understand how (and how quickly) exponential growth works. It wouldn't be 11 deaths a day if it was left to run.
Not many are suggesting 'let it run'.

However the current level of restrictions (about to get worse any moment) are overly onerous for society, both socially and economically, and have their own serious health consequences.

Somewhere in the middle is a sensible balance. Nobody in government seems to care though. They are drunk on the power they have acquired, and shaking off this endless micro-management of our lives is going to take years if not decades.
 

Bletchleyite

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Not many are suggesting 'let it run'.

However the current level of restrictions (about to get worse any moment) are overly onerous for society, both socially and economically, and have their own serious health consequences.

Somewhere in the middle is a sensible balance. Nobody in government seems to care though. They are drunk on the power they have acquired, and shaking off this endless micro-management of our lives is going to take years if not decades.

The problem is that if you don't want exponential growth, it's been proven that the restrictions (compulsory or voluntary as they may be) need to be slightly tighter than the ones you have now. It's like a switch - pass R=1 and we WILL end up in a mess. It's just a question of how quickly.
 

Scrotnig

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It seems there isn't going to be a "lockdown 2"
Yet!

Just as in March, we are seeing restrictions gradually tightened with the changes only days apart. This clearly doesn't give enough time for ht eprevious set to have any effect.

For instance, "Rule of Six" was introduced recently, and there's no way they could possibly know what effect it has had on transmission. Yet today we are to get a further serious tightening of the rules.

I suspect in a few days it will get worse, they are clearly heading towards a full shutdown again, they just think that if it's done in stages we won't notice.

The hysterical brigade are going along wit this.
New restrictions Monday > Cases still rising on Wednesday > Demands for more restrictions on Thursday > Government accedes by the weekend.
Nobody is mentioning that there is around a two to three week lag at least before any of this takes effect.

A further downside to this is that, when cases DO fall, we have no idea which restriction actually ehlped, so we stick with all of them.

It is a complete joke and anyone with a modicum of intelligence and critical thinking abaility should be completely bemused by it.

The problem is that if you don't want exponential growth, it's been proven that the restrictions (compulsory or voluntary as they may be) need to be slightly tighter than the ones you have now. It's like a switch - pass R=1 and we WILL end up in a mess. It's just a question of how quickly.
We cannot keep the country shut down. The consequences of that will be far more destructive than this virus.

A balance has to be struck. Currently it's not being.
 
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