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TrawsCambria / TrawsCymru

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Rhydgaled

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““diversion of the services between Corwen and Bala. These services have been servicing the villages for years. “”

Nearly 60 years I believe. That does not mean it is the correct option . A long distance double decker service, part of a National Network, should not be travelling 14 miles along a narrow B road to pick up very few passengers and those passengers should be serviced by Bwcabus to connect with the T3 in Bala or Corwen.

But are they intended to be long distance services, or are they long stopping bus services that are run as one service for operational and connectional convenience with no real intention that anyone would use it as a through service?

Two very good points above. I agree in principle with both of the arguments - a national long-distance network should NOT be making detours but it is important to serve these places with bus services. If the money isn't there to do both it does make sense to run a service that isn't really intended to be a long-distance but runs through anyway to reduce the need for passengers making shorter journeys to change bus. What I object to is pretending to have a national long-distance network (and the T3 is certainly branded as part of one) when really they are ordinary local bus services. The TrawsCymru Connect branding makes alot more sense, it doesn't pretend to be what it's not; unfortunately most of the network right now really should fall under the 'Connect' brand and the mainline services need speeding up by cutting out detours like Pencader (T1) and New Quay (T5) - trouble with that is we will then need more 'Connect' services to fill in the gaps.

That said, it is my view that Traws should have been better integrated with the railway, as part of a single fares and timetable system. Wales has huge gaps in the railway, so plugging them in this way has much more going for it than in England.
I agree that it should be integrated with the rail system; however I'm not sure England is that much different. Yes there aren't as many massive railway voids in England as there are in Wales, but there are still areas where the railway routes run in parallel and you need a bus if you want to go perpendicular to them. The most obvious one of those will eventually be fixed by East West Rail, but things like Whitby to York will remain difficult and, with England being a far bigger area than Wales, I expect you could end up with a similar number (9 or 10) of strategic long-distance bus routes.

Not quite that simple. I believe there would be legal issues with putting on an identical service, but it doesn't need to be much different for it to be potentially justified.

If you have a route A-B-C, say, and A-B is commercial but the commercial operator won't run B-C, but there's considerable demand A-C, then it is perfectly valid to put on a tendered service that runs the full route A-C. You don't have to make people change, and the commercial operator does not have a right to insist that you pay them to extend to C (though this may of course sometimes be cheaper) nor that you don't carry A-B passengers.

Real world (non-Welsh, as I don't know one) example - MK Council traditionally had a tendered route CMK-Newport Pagnell-Olney even though commercial CMK-Newport Pagnell services have long been provided. This is perfectly allowed.
Interesting; for many years passengers were made to change at Aberaeron between TrawsCambria X50 and X40 services to go from Cardigan to Aberystwyth. If I recall correctly, at the time I was lead to believe that was because the X40 and 550 north of Aberaeron were commercial services by Arriva and subsidising the X50 through to Aberystwyth was not allowed (although some morning and evening services did run through; I was never sure if Richards Bros were doing that commercially in competition with Arriva).
 
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markymark2000

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Not quite that simple. I believe there would be legal issues with putting on an identical service, but it doesn't need to be much different for it to be potentially justified.

If you have a route A-B-C, say, and A-B is commercial but the commercial operator won't run B-C, but there's considerable demand A-C, then it is perfectly valid to put on a tendered service that runs the full route A-C. You don't have to make people change, and the commercial operator does not have a right to insist that you pay them to extend to C (though this may of course sometimes be cheaper) nor that you don't carry A-B passengers.

Real world (non-Welsh, as I don't know one) example - MK Council traditionally had a tendered route CMK-Newport Pagnell-Olney even though commercial CMK-Newport Pagnell services have long been provided. This is perfectly allowed.
Perhaps not quite as simple as I made it out but in these instances, it is revenue abstraction from a commercial company. That's why in many areas, for tenders, the contracts state fares must be set at or above the level set by the commercial operator on mutual sections and/or tendered timetables are purposely put about 5 minutes later than the commercial core route. Both done to so as not to take passengers off the commercial core route.
If there is considerable demand from A-C it's a lot more understandable and I would agree with you here.
The commercial operator can't insist you pay them for the extension nor insist that you force passengers onto their bus but it is government subsidising revenue abstraction from a commercial company.

In these instances, it isn't a case of passengers really travelling longer distances and it's the Welsh Govt doing what they can to give TrawsCymru an advantage over commercial routes where they exist, not offering the same benefits to a commercial core route, nor trying to ensure that the commercial core route remains, just that. Where passengers are travelling the longer distances, it would be reasonable to ask them to change buses. People don't tend to expect to travel on very long distance buses, they expect to change somewhere. The vast majority of bus routes are 90 minutes tops with longer journeys normally being express coaches or routes with substantial demand across the interchanges (using a Welsh example, the 11 group from Rhyl to Chester has substantial cross Holywell demand).
You can see the passenger numbers now on the T3 as they are using Solo SRs on a good few trips and there is no longer demand for the deckers.


(I know I am contradicting myself slightly saying low demand and revenue abstraction but both apply. Low demand means you are wasting money to satisfy a few passengers, councillors or politicians. Revenue abstraction, irrespective of how many passengers, just a single passenger using the TrawsCymru instead of the commercial bus, is revenue abstraction. The T3 is only one example though as well. I ask readers to be mindful of the fact that there is a lot of duplication over commercial routes from the TrawsCymru network)
 

GusB

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Please define any abbreviations the first time you use them in a post. Don't assume that everyone else will know what you're talking about. Thank you.
 

johncrossley

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It's not very good. The whole TrawsCymru isn't there to satisfy passengers, it's there as part of Welsh Government aims to renationalise buses and the easiest way to do it is by starting with tenders and slowly letting the surrounding network fail so they can take on more services. All about control, nothing to do with passengers or what is the right thing to do. There are/were talks of a fast Mold - Chester route, again would steal passengers off commercial routes.

They are the government and have the power to end deregulation so why don't they use their authority properly instead of taking such baby steps? Even the far right-wing UK government has decided that deregulation is over.
 

RT4038

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They are the government and have the power to end deregulation so why don't they use their authority properly instead of taking such baby steps? Even the far right-wing UK government has decided that deregulation is over.
Possibly because they don't want to expose themselves to the financial implications?
 

Marcus Fryer

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Please define any abbreviations the first time you use them in a post. Don't assume that everyone else will know what you're talking about. Thank you.
Are you referring to MK and CMK?
Think they stand for Milton Keynes and Central Milton Keynes?
 

johntrawscymru

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the mainline services need speeding up by cutting out detours like Pencader (T1) and New Quay (T5) - trouble with that is we will then need more 'Connect' services to fill in the gaps.
I agree mainline services need speeding up.
However the T1 is the nearest service that follows what we can expect in Wales for a long distance service and the Welsh Government (WG) did remove the diversion through Cribyn some years ago. The Pencader diversion takes minutes and is more of a pull in to a large lay-by and does actually service a lot of passengers (T1 links with the Llandysul bus). I do not believe the Pencader diversion should be removed. There is no comparison between the T1 Pencader diversion and the T3 with its 14 mile detour to service few passengers. However the T1 frequently has a rest here and there over and above the scheduled stops and could easily be speeded up. It is not a coincidence that above 99% of T1 services meet the punctuality standard.
The T5 is a different story to the T1. It attempts to cover all bases - a Connect service with diversions through not only Newquay but also Aberporth with its hideous bends and a school service for Aberaeron . My own view is that there should be some mainline services which would take 1.5 hours to link in Aberystwyth with a direct T12 service to Wrexham. There is no logic to all T12 services starting in Machynleth other than the service provider garaging their buses there and 3.5 hours to reach Wrexham is too long. A direct T12 service between Aberystwyth and Wrexham via Llangurig (Connections with Llandridod Wells/Rhayader) , Llanidloes, Newtown, Welshpool, Oswestry with no diversions would take 3 hours. The net result would be a long distance route between South West Wales and North East Wales with a large population catchment taking 5 hours which would be faster and cheaper than the train (6 to 7 hours).
 
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TheGrandWazoo

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Good lord, there's a lot of stuff being bandied on this thread that is opinion being touted as fact.

Firstly, the question of competition against commercial services. This is never a simple binary argument and nor is there some hard and fast rule about what constitutes competition. It is a question of how much market distortion occurs. In the case of the T2, the view has ALWAYS been (since the X32) that it made sense to run through to Bangor rather than arbitrarily terminating it in Caernarfon, so that it provided a link into the main rail network. The level of abstraction from a two hourly service against a 15 min headway from Arriva was always viewed as minimal. The only instance where competition and the ability to distort the market has been a major issue has been between Merthyr and Cardiff (but the timings are coordinated with the X4 and the T4/T14 are operated by Stagecoach anyway), and between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth when the T2 tender was first mooted and Arriva instead registered the X40, resulting in the tender (that was largely identical).

Sorry the T5 route had a 0.6% decrease in passengers in 2018-2019. There was no increase due to Free Weekend Travel. The Welsh Government (WG) did not bother to falsify the data on services in West Wales and the T1 showed only a small 2.1% increase. The WG were only interested in falsifying the data on the T2/T3 North Wales services.

Sorry T2 and T3 data on passenger numbers has been fabricated by Welsh Government Officials. Please read the post above on 1st April 2021 . there is no 45% increase in passenger numbers due to Free Weekend Travel. That was a lie.
There is no WG analysis of Free Weekend Travel . There are Press Releases with claims of 100% , 200%, 300% increases based on a passenger figure for a specific service on a specific day compared with a similar date from the previous year . That kind of analysis is a complete nonsense.
The Free Weekend Travel scheme was announced by the then First Minister Carwyn Jones in March 2017. The objective was stated to be to encourage passengers to continue to use buses in mid week after a taster at weekends. Now read and examine the figures in the first Trawscymru Annual report fpr 2017-2018 and you will find there was no increase in mid week passenger numbers. Now read and examine the figures in the Trawscymru Annual reports for 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. Then explain to me how the passenger data was falsified, and where there is any analysis of how many passengers travelled on weekdays and at weekends. You will find no analysis whatsoever.


““diversion of the services between Corwen and Bala. These services have been servicing the villages for years. “”

Nearly 60 years I believe. That does not mean it is the correct option . A long distance double decker service, part of a National Network, should not be travelling 14 miles along a narrow B road to pick up very few passengers and those passengers should be serviced by Bwcabus to connect with the T3 in Bala or Corwen.


“”its clear that there are issues with the T1, however this service has its own connections it has to meet e.g rail connections at Carmarthen “”

You are correct The T1 should be connecting with the rail network at Carmarthen and the Trawscambria route was introduced when the rail link between Carmarthen and North West Wales was removed. However this strategic route is now broken because the T2 has to wait in Dolgellau for late running T3 services from Wrexham (with few passengers) and no longer connects with the T1 in Aberystwyth.

“”similar to the T12 replacing Powys bus X71 & X85. Or the T11 in Pembrokeshire replacing the 411 and 412. “”

These 2 services are perfect examples of the WG philosophy which is “no strategic evaluation of a National long distance network and in order to claim success in increasing Trawscymru passenger numbers steal a couple of existing services and rebrand them as Trawscymru.”
Both the T11 and T12 services are a joke and are not long distance services. The T11 goes from Haverfordwest to Fishguard via St Davids taking over an hour, when the same journey can be carried out on the T5 in a third of the time. The T12 between Wrexham and Machynleth takes over 3.5 hours and goes here there and everywhere in Mid Wales. Nobody in their right mind would use the T12 as a long distance service .
Now, where do you start with all of this....

Now I'm no fan of Ken Skates, the WG, and some of the bonkers stuff that was mooted (e.g. Bangor to Chirk) and the like. Some of these have to be called out. However, if you're going to shout down the veracity of information and criticism of spin, then your place on the moral high ground had better be pretty secure. I'm not seeing that when you're also seemingly being selective with the facts you're choosing; why quote 2018/9 for the T5 when surely 2017/8 would be a more appropriate measure.

Don't get me wrong. I think the free travel experiment is fundamentally flawed and won't drive people onto mid week services (different demographics) but I do not see falsification and corruption everywhere; it's not Line Of Duty!

Also, many of the aspects that you're complaining about were long standing features of bus services. The T2 has always had an interchange in Dolgellau - I remember it in 1994 where the 2 and the 94 would meet with 4 vehicles (plus probably the odd one to Tywyn) would converge. The routeing of the T2 via Llandrillo is similarly long standing and doubtless makes a damn sight more sense to do that diversion along a decent B road (it's not some farm track) that having a Bwcabus for a couple of villages, rather than sending it on a more sparsely populated and barely quicker A road.

As for the rebranding of services as TrawsCymru.... Yeah, some make sense more than others. The T11 is rather nonsensical but the T14 makes sense. I'm not certain I can get too het up about a load of tendered routes, paid for out the public purse, being rebranded as some greater network.

I think you have greater issues with TC than most people...or everyone
 

johntrawscymru

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Good lord, there's a lot of stuff being bandied on this thread that is opinion being touted as fact.
if you're going to shout down the veracity of information and criticism of spin, then your place on the moral high ground had better be pretty secure.
Fact . The 2018-2019 Trawscymru Annual report quotes a 45% increase in passenger numbers on the network due largely to the Free Weekend Travel scheme and this was a complete lie involving fabrication of the passenger transport data for the T2 and T3 services. If you wish to argue that this an opinion not fact then by all means present your evidence .

I do not see falsification and corruption everywhere
How hard have you looked ?

What is your opinion on the provision of funding for the no 5 Arriva service between wrexham and Llangollen outside the BSSG between 2017 and 2020, which the Welsh First Minister said breached the Ministerial Code.?

What is your opinion on the fabrication of passenger data in both the 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 Trawscymru Annual reports ?

What is your opinion on suppression of publication of the 2018-2019 Trawscymru Annual report, with its fabricated data, for 8 months until the first week and first death during the covid pandemic in Wales in March 2020.?

What is your opinion on the case/data analysis that the WG have presented for continuing with the Free Weekend Travel scheme.?

What is your opinion on the fabrication of the "High-Level" review of a Trawscymru route between Wrexham and Aberystwyth ?

What is your opinion on the way the T15 Chester to Corwen was evaluated or for that matter the T10 Oswestry to Bangor via Corwen ?

What is your opinion on the 2020-2025 review of the Trawscymru Network completed in 2019 ?

What is your opinion on the suppression of the Bevan Foundation Review of the Trawscymru Network between 2014 and 2016 ?

There is nothing wrong with having opinions and there is nothing wrong with revealing facts, particularly where there is wrong doing by Government and Officials.
I think you have greater issues with TC than most people...or everyone
Possibly .
Is this an opinion by you or everyone. ?
I think you have expressed a similar opinion before, but your opinion does not alter the facts.
 

Dai Corner

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Talking of duplication of commercial services, the T7 spends half its time between Chepstow and Cribbs Causeway (arguably a socially necessary link for shopworkers and shoppers?) and the other half between there and Bristol city centre (very well catered for commercially by First).

Operating costs could be halved or frequency over the Chepstow-Cribbs section doubled.
 

TheGrandWazoo

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What is your opinion on the provision of funding for the no 5 Arriva service between wrexham and Llangollen outside the BSSG between 2017 and 2020, which the Welsh First Minister said breached the Ministerial Code.?
Given that we were talking about TrawsCymru, it is a) not relevant and b) is it an indication of wide spread corruption as you seem to imply. After all, there would be many other instances

Unless you're suggesting that politicians making considered political decisions is somehow a new thing. It isn't which is why the Heart of Wales line still exists.
What is your opinion on the fabrication of passenger data in both the 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 Trawscymru Annual reports ?

What is your opinion on suppression of publication of the 2018-2019 Trawscymru Annual report, with its fabricated data, for 8 months until the first week and first death during the covid pandemic in Wales in March 2020.?

What is your opinion on the case/data analysis that the WG have presented for continuing with the Free Weekend Travel scheme.?

What is your opinion on the fabrication of the "High-Level" review of a Trawscymru route between Wrexham and Aberystwyth ?

What is your opinion on the way the T15 Chester to Corwen was evaluated or for that matter the T10 Oswestry to Bangor via Corwen ?

What is your opinion on the 2020-2025 review of the Trawscymru Network completed in 2019 ?

What is your opinion on the suppression of the Bevan Foundation Review of the Trawscymru Network between 2014 and 2016 ?

There is nothing wrong with having opinions and there is nothing wrong with revealing facts, particularly where there is wrong doing by Government and Officials.
Without going into each and every instance of the above, I've been very clear in the past about the issues of TrawsCymru. If you flick back through the posts, I was scathing about the T10 Bangor to Chirk/Oswestry service. The linking and branding of otherwise stand alone tendered routes to create new links is something that I'm relatively relaxed about, but not the creation of obscure new links based on little or no evidence. That they commissioned and then discarded the Bevan Foundation review.... again, as I've said before, the Winckler review was a poorly executed, desk top exercise with little evidential substance. That it was commissioned in that way is the issue; that they didn't then pursue a bad piece of work is perhaps a relief. Similarly, I have said that I disagree with the premise of the free weekend travel scheme in that it does not and will not work.

Now, onto the questions for you. Can you please provide your detailed evidence that they have wilfully fabricated information? Not things like selectively picking out the odd statistic. Please provide the extensive evidence that they are publishing knowingly fabricated data into the public realm.


Is this an opinion by you or everyone. ?
I think you have expressed a similar opinion before, but your opinion does not alter the facts.
It was clearly my opinion; the sentence started with "I think" - just that many people tend to post on many different and varied subjects. You don't - your ID also tends to suggest that you are infinitely more concerned about TC than most people, if indeed, or possibly anyone else

Talking of duplication of commercial services, the T7 spends half its time between Chepstow and Cribbs Causeway (arguably a socially necessary link for shopworkers and shoppers?) and the other half between there and Bristol city centre (very well catered for commercially by First).

Operating costs could be halved or frequency over the Chepstow-Cribbs section doubled.
Arguably, the issue is whether you provide the link that people want/need and if Bristol is the logical traffic objective.

Certainly, an hourly run down Whiteladies Road is hardly likely to significantly impact the raft of services on that corridor.
 
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johntrawscymru

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I do not see falsification and corruption everywhere

Given that we were talking about TrawsCymru, it is a) not relevant and b) is it an indication of wide spread corruption
Now, onto the questions for you. Can you please provide your detailed evidence that they have wilfully fabricated information?
I disagree with the premise of the free weekend travel scheme in that it does not and will not work.

Nowhere have I mentioned corruption. You introduced corruption.

The actions of the Welsh Minister for Transport in providing funding for the No 5 Wrexham to Llangollen service is one indicator of how bus provision has been made in the past 5 years.
If you think long and hard, it is in fact relevant to Trawscymru. The introduction of a luxury double decker No 5 every 20 minutes took away passengers from the T3 (the bulk of passengers are between Wrexham and Llangollen on exactly the same route as the T3). The Free Weekend Travel scheme was announced unexpectedly by the then First Minister (Carwyn Jones) in March 2017 at the Labour Party Conference 3 weeks after the Transport Minister Ken Skates went to the Arriva depot in Rhyl to inspect the No 5 buses. The Free Weekend Travel scheme was then introduced one week after the No 5 service was introduced in July 2017 at a "Ministerial" launch event in Wrexham. The T3 at weekends was then renamed by the drivers as the "party bus" and those people who previously paid for the privilege of using the service (ie families) were driven away.
You requested "the detailed evidence that they have wilfully fabricated information". This is contained in the document attached to my post on 01/04/2021 and this evidence has been forwarded to South Wales Police who have started an investigation . You could of course just read the WG reports for 2017-2018,2018-2019 and 2019-2020 and make your own judgement . The false claim of a 45% increase in passenger numbers due largely to Free Weekend Travel has also been issued as press releases and in a written statement to the Welsh Senedd by the Deputy Minister (Lee Waters). If this false claim in a written statement is not corrected that will be a breach of the WG Ministerial Code. The false claim of a 45% increase has also featured in the latest Welsh Government Transport Strategy as justification for retention of the Free Weekend Travel Scheme. If you disagree with the premise of the free weekend travel scheme in that it does not and will not work perhaps you could help by writing to the First Minister to request that the false claim of a 45% increase is removed from the Transport Strategy.

Without going into each and every instance of the above,
You missed out the following

What is your opinion on suppression of publication of the 2018-2019 Trawscymru Annual report, with its fabricated data, for 8 months until the first week and first death during the covid pandemic in Wales in March 2020.?

What is your opinion on the case/data analysis that the WG have presented for continuing with the Free Weekend Travel scheme.?

What is your opinion on the fabrication of the "High-Level" review of a Trawscymru route between Wrexham and Aberystwyth ?

What is your opinion on the way the T15 Chester to Corwen was evaluated ?

What is your opinion on the 2020-2025 review of the Trawscymru Network completed in 2019 ?
That they commissioned and then discarded the Bevan Foundation review.... again, as I've said before, the Winckler review was a poorly executed, desk top exercise with little evidential substance. That it was commissioned in that way is the issue; that they didn't then pursue a bad piece of work is perhaps a relief.
Mmm. Back to the T3.
The Winckler review was 36 pages long and covered the views of a large number of stakeholders. You say there was little evidential substance in those 36 pages and yet you are perfectly happy that tenders are issued for Trawscymru services with no evaluation/strategy document.
You state as "fact" that ""the review was a poorly executed, desk top exercise with little evidential substance."". I would say that is an opinion and I would disagree with you. Please present your evidence for this opinion.
The Winckler review was commissioned in May 2013 following the publication of a report " Integrated transport in Wales". Sitting on the Committee which produced the report was Ken Skates. The proposal that was adopted by the Committee members was that the next Trawscymru service following on from T1/T2 would be the conversion of the X94 to T3 Wrexham to Barmouth. In January 2014 Winckler passed her report to the WG with one recommendation on the network that before the conversion of the X94 a review of a more strategic Trawscymru route between Wrexham and Aberystwyth should be carried out. The report was instantly shelved and a Welsh Government official met in January 2014 with Gwynedd Council to plan the timetable for the T3 Wrexham to Barmouth.
However, they did not "" discard the Bevan review"" nor did they ""not pursue a bad piece of work"", because in late 2015/early 2016 it was revealed in the Welsh Assembly that the Bevan review had not been published or acted upon. The then Transport Minister (Edwina Hart) was then forced into urgent action and reported in April 2016 that all the Bevan review recommendations had been completed except the review of the T3 route which by default was in operation between Wrexham and Barmouth since late 2014.
This really leads on to the question that you did not answer ie ""
What is your opinion on the fabrication of the "High-Level" review of a Trawscymru route between Wrexham and Aberystwyth ?""
 

CBlue

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Not to interrupt what I'm sure is a fascinating discussion above, but I understand some of the TrawsCymru routes are operated by 'deckers these days? If so, which ones? Do any also still see coaches used, I seem to recall Arriva operated a few older Van Hools at one point.
 

cnjb8

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Not to interrupt what I'm sure is a fascinating discussion above, but I understand some of the TrawsCymru routes are operated by 'deckers these days? If so, which ones? Do any also still see coaches used, I seem to recall Arriva operated a few older Van Hools at one point.
I think Lloyds use Scania E400s on one TC service, and NAT use a Tourismo. That's if I can remember right!
 

johntrawscymru

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Lloyds used Scania E400s on the T3 but now the T3 is a mix of everything. Generally single deckers Solo SRs or Metrocities.
When you say now a mix of everything do you mean since the onset of the Covid pandemic ? However there was a case for using single deckers before the Covid pandemic.
 

Bwsbro

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When you say now a mix of everything do you mean since the onset of the Covid pandemic ? However there was a case for using single deckers before the Covid pandemic.
The previous allocation for the T3 was 3 deckers and two Metrocities. Following the demise of Express Motors and the expansion of the T2, one of the T3 deckers has been allocated to Caernarfon.

This has caused a shortage of deckers which has been worked around by swapping buses at Dolgellau to ensure the correct vehicle was on the right route. It wasn’t uncommon for a Solo to do the evening Barmouth runs from Dolgellau

Since covid like many companies allocations have changed numerous times. Lloyds won’t be the only operator who have had to amend allocations for service requirements.
 
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johntrawscymru

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The previous allocation for the T3 was 3 deckers and two metrocities. Following the demise of Express Motors and the expansion of the T2, one of the T3 deckers has been allocated to Caernarfon.

This has caused a shortage of deckers which has been worked around by swapping buses at Dolgellau to ensure the correct vehicle was on the right route. It wasn’t uncommon for a Solo to do the evening Barmouth runs from Dolgellau

Since covid like many companies allocations have changed numerous times. Lloyds won’t be the only operator who have had to amend allocations for service requirements.
Thanks
Post pandemic will be a big problem in justifying double deckers not least because the public have been told to use their cars not public transport but also because the transport brief is now under a Climate Change Minister who will presumably want to reduce use of double deckers and only use them on routes with lots of passengers.
 

Bwsbro

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Thanks
Post pandemic will be a big problem in justifying double deckers not least because the public have been told to use their cars not public transport but also because the transport brief is now under a Climate Change Minister who will presumably want to reduce use of double deckers and only use them on routes with lots of passengers.
The journeys which currently operate deckers will continue to justify them, both the T2 & T3 cater for a large number of School & College pupils, many traveling long distance from outside their allocated catchment zone.
 

TheGrandWazoo

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Nowhere have I mentioned corruption. You introduced corruption.
You have continually stated that there were outright lies and fabrication. Corruption is the practice of dishonesty, especially by persons in positions of authority so you are alleging corruption.
You could of course just read the WG reports for 2017-2018,2018-2019 and 2019-2020 and make your own judgement
I have indeed read them and your protestations of lies and fabrication. Now if I thought that there was some fantastic strategy to carefully weave a web of deceit then I'd expect something more sophisticated than

T2 2017/8 345k to 2018/9 691k representing an increase of 20%

T3 2018/9 238k to 2019/20 223k representing an increase of 6%

That the figures are clearly wrong is without question. It is whether it is incompetence or something more sophisticated and sinister. Clearly it's the former - you don't cleverly invent the wrong figures.



You state as "fact" that ""the review was a poorly executed, desk top exercise with little evidential substance."". I would say that is an opinion and I would disagree with you. Please present your evidence for this opinion.
The report no longer seems to be available. However, I seem to recall that there were arbitrary rules on journey lengths etc based on no empirical evidence or accepted industry practice. Moreover, as skilled as Dr Winckler is, she has no background in bus operation and that was apparent in her report.

I have answered many of your questions and you seem to feel that entitles you do continue asking them/more. As I have been consistent in saying, I think that the free weekend scheme is fundamentally flawed; I think that a number of the planned routes don't have a basis for their development.

It is clearly apparent that you have a view and nothing will disavow you of that. A view that culminated in the Information Commissioner finding on behalf of the WG that you had pursued a personal agenda and that had led to vexatious pattern of FOI requests (22 in 3 years), a decision that was upheld on appeal. Indeed, the IC stated that "in addition to the Requests, his persistence, and his conviction that there must be some wrong doing borders on obsessiveness." https://www.casemine.com/judgement/uk/5df07c0a2c94e0601df45275

I'm happy to discuss issues with people on buses, discussing things robustly but with a level of respect and the ability to have open and honest debate. However, there is no prospect of having any form of rational discussion.
 
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iantherev

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Firstly, the question of competition against commercial services. This is never a simple binary argument and nor is there some hard and fast rule about what constitutes competition. It is a question of how much market distortion occurs. In the case of the T2, the view has ALWAYS been (since the X32) that it made sense to run through to Bangor rather than arbitrarily terminating it in Caernarfon, so that it provided a link into the main rail network. The level of abstraction from a two hourly service against a 15 min headway from Arriva was always viewed as minimal. The only instance where competition and the ability to distort the market has been a major issue has been between Merthyr and Cardiff (but the timings are coordinated with the X4 and the T4/T14 are operated by Stagecoach anyway), and between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth when the T2 tender was first mooted and Arriva instead registered the X40, resulting in the tender (that was largely identical).
The T4 has always been commercial south of Merthyr - it merely ran through replacing the X4 Merthyr - Cardiff short workings. Subsequently Stagecoach have extended the commercial section to Brecon.
 

TheGrandWazoo

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The T4 has always been commercial south of Merthyr - it merely ran through replacing the X4 Merthyr - Cardiff short workings. Subsequently Stagecoach have extended the commercial section to Brecon.
Appreciate that’s the case - I could’ve phrased it better in that the tender was originally envisaged as running to Cardiff but it was integrated into the X4.

I didn’t realise it was now commercial to Brecon though. Certainly the service is much improved south of Brecon compared to the old (43?). Was it Silverline who had Leyland Swifts on there? They then got replaced by iffy Stagecoach Mercs and Darts which were my introduction to the route. Things are certainly a lot better now.
 
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Rhydgaled

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The report no longer seems to be available. However, I seem to recall that there were arbitrary rules on journey lengths etc based on no empirical evidence or accepted industry practice. Moreover, as skilled as Dr Winckler is, she has no background in bus operation and that was apparent in her report.
It took some digging, but I eventually managed to find the Winckler review report again. By 'arbitrary rules on journey lengths', are you refering to the definition of 'long distance' (in which case I cannot see how this could be anything other than arbitrary) or to the acceptable time penalty versus the car? If the latter, I remind you that the report did state that "These figures are no more than my personal views as a bus user and further research amongst passengers should be undertaken to establish if this is reasonable", a recommendation that the Welsh Government appear to have ignored and instead gone ahead with introducing at least one new route (the T5) with time penalties far in excess of the 'personal views' expressed in the Winckler review.
 

TheGrandWazoo

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It took some digging, but I eventually managed to find the Winckler review report again. By 'arbitrary rules on journey lengths', are you refering to the definition of 'long distance' (in which case I cannot see how this could be anything other than arbitrary) or to the acceptable time penalty versus the car? If the latter, I remind you that the report did state that "These figures are no more than my personal views as a bus user and further research amongst passengers should be undertaken to establish if this is reasonable", a recommendation that the Welsh Government appear to have ignored and instead gone ahead with introducing at least one new route (the T5) with time penalties far in excess of the 'personal views' expressed in the Winckler review.
It was the latter and thank you for digging it out and even drawing out the salient quote that it was merely a personal opinion on her part, rather than anything based on research.
 

Rhydgaled

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It was the latter and thank you for digging it out and even drawing out the salient quote that it was merely a personal opinion on her part, rather than anything based on research.
My point is that she knew this was inadequate and recommended further research - further research which the Welsh Government have (as far as I am aware) failed to carry out although in my opinion said research should also include rail passengers and motorists, not just bus passengers as her recommendation implied. With modal shift being a key plank of the Welsh Government's new transport strategy, investigating the views of people who are not (and were not even before the pandemic) bus users is more important than ever.
 

iantherev

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Appreciate that’s the case - I could’ve phrased it better in that the tender was originally envisaged as running to Cardiff but it was integrated into the X4.

I didn’t realise it was now commercial to Brecon though. Certainly the service is much improved south of Brecon compared to the old (43?). Was it Silverline who had Leyland Swifts on there? They then got replaced by iffy Stagecoach Mercs and Darts which were my introduction to the route. Things are certainly a lot better now.
I wouldn't really say it's better at the moment under COVID redictions and the need to weld together the service Powys wants north of Brecon and the current reduced Merthyr - Cardiff service means that morning southbound services have no recovery time throughout and a 20 minute wait at Merthyr northbound. Hopefully this will improve before long And we might get a later departure for north of Merthyr than 16:05 from Cardiff again. In the meantime my current preference is a drive to Rhymney for the train...
 

TheGrandWazoo

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I wouldn't really say it's better at the moment under COVID redictions and the need to weld together the service Powys wants north of Brecon and the current reduced Merthyr - Cardiff service means that morning southbound services have no recovery time throughout and a 20 minute wait at Merthyr northbound. Hopefully this will improve before long And we might get a later departure for north of Merthyr than 16:05 from Cardiff again. In the meantime my current preference is a drive to Rhymney for the train...
Yeah, the Covid related service pattern isn't that great but still a bit better than my introduction to it. I think I had a former CVT Lynx from Hereford to Brecon (nice) but then some shonky Stagecoach Dart to Merthyr in the period between Silverline and Sixty Sixty - guess it must have been late 90s. So at least the rolling stock has improved!!
 

carlberry

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The T4 has always been commercial south of Merthyr - it merely ran through replacing the X4 Merthyr - Cardiff short workings. Subsequently Stagecoach have extended the commercial section to Brecon.
I'm amazed that the Merthyr-Brecon section is commercial (Obviously the current position is different). Pre Covid it had a better service than it's ever had before, on a service that National Welsh gave up in 1986!
 
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