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Vaccine passport disaster in Scotland

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NorthKent1989

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Your question was answered on 19th October by the Scottish Government.





As for the others. I'm not saying the vaccine passport scheme lowers or stops cases. All I'm saying is this government has done so many massive u turns over Covid that just because they said Covid passports won't be rolled out in England doesn't mean that's true. They will be. Of course they will be.

Maybe you’re a right but they have u turned on passports three time time’s now, England was supposed to have them in September but it hasn’t gone ahead, but to say “of course they will be” is a big claim to make
 
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duncanp

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They will be. Of course they will be.

Rubbish.

Whilst it is of course possible that vaccine passports will be introduced in England, it is by no means inevitable, especially in the near future as daily cases in England have fallen by more than 40% since their peak on 18th October. (48,232 on 18th October, 28,695 on 11th November)

Daily cases in Scotland, with vaccine passports and compulsory masks on public transport have only fallen by 1.5% in the same period (2,934 on 18th October, 2,888 on 11th November)

What is the point in introducing measures which have very little demonstrable effect on transmission of the virus or the number of cases, but do have an effect on the businesses that have to carry out the checks?
 

js1000

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Rubbish.

Whilst it is of course possible that vaccine passports will be introduced in England, it is by no means inevitable, especially in the near future as daily cases in England have fallen by more than 40% since their peak on 18th October. (48,232 on 18th October, 28,695 on 11th November)

Daily cases in Scotland, with vaccine passports and compulsory masks on public transport have only fallen by 1.5% in the same period (2,934 on 18th October, 2,888 on 11th November)

What is the point in introducing measures which have very little demonstrable effect on transmission of the virus or the number of cases, but do have an effect on the businesses that have to carry out the checks?
We need context. If you compare the January 2021 peak to those in hospital, England is in a different position to Scotland and Wales.

England
Jan 2021: 34,000 peak
Now: 6,700
Drop: 80.3%

Scotland

Jan 2021: 2,000 peak
Now: 800
Drop: 60%

Wales

Jan 2021: 1,900 peak
Now: 620
Drop: 67%

As you can see, England is in a much better position than both Scotland and Wales and far greater pressure from Covid is persisting in Scottish and Welsh hospitals. However, the mitigation measures enacted in both countries also raises interesting questions as to how effective face masks and vaccine passports really are as case rates and hospitalisations remain stubbornly high.

I've long argued masks actually encourage less social distancing as people are more inclined to stand within 2 metres of you if they feel safer whereas a mask. Likewise, vaccine passports could just encourage smaller, more dense gatherings in smaller pub venues with inadequate ventilation or house/flat parties. I would suggest there is some evidence that vaccine passports are having this detrimental adverse affect and not really reducing case numbers anywhere near what the expected level would be.

The decision to open up in May and fully open in July by Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance was a stroke of genius. Make hay while the sun shines otherwise you're going to get a nasty and unmanageable peak in the winter. Scotland, Wales and other European countries are now finding that out that a consistent level of infection is probably better than wild peak and troughs that healthcare systems will struggle to cope with.

Basically you want to "flatten the curve" so that it is a consistent infection over a sustained period of time. Otherwise you're going to have massive peak and troughs which are just manageable. Many countries have failed to appreciate that and very naively followed a "zero Covid" strategy - something that does not exist.
 

bramling

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Save Christmas again? I seem to remember that the UK Government utterly screwed many peoples' Christmas last year.

It’s more emotional blackmail. Something to look forward to over the last few weeks.

We need context. If you compare the January 2021 peak to those in hospital, England is in a different position to Scotland and Wales.

England
Jan 2021: 34,000 peak
Now: 6,700
Drop: 80.3%

Scotland

Jan 2021: 2,000 peak
Now: 800
Drop: 60%

Wales

Jan 2021: 1,900 peak
Now: 620
Drop: 67%

As you can see, England is in a much better position than both Scotland and Wales and far greater pressure from Covid is persisting in Scottish and Welsh hospitals. However, the mitigation measures enacted in both countries also raises interesting questions as to how effective face masks and vaccine passports really are as case rates and hospitalisations remain stubbornly high.

I've long argued masks actually encourage less social distancing as people are more inclined to stand within 2 metres of you if they feel safer whereas a mask. Likewise, vaccine passports could just encourage smaller, more dense gatherings in smaller pub venues with inadequate ventilation or house/flat parties. I would suggest there is some evidence that vaccine passports are having this detrimental adverse affect and not really reducing case numbers anywhere near what the expected level would be.

The decision to open up in May and fully open in July by Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance was a stroke of genius. Make hay while the sun shines otherwise you're going to get a nasty and unmanageable peak in the winter. Scotland, Wales and other European countries are now finding that out that a consistent level of infection is probably better than wild peak and troughs that healthcare systems will struggle to cope with.

Basically you want to "flatten the curve" so that it is a consistent infection over a sustained period of time. Otherwise you're going to have massive peak and troughs which are just manageable. Many countries have failed to appreciate that and very naively followed a "zero Covid" strategy - something that does not exist.

The trouble is in order to achieve that there has to be some management of expectations, in other words people need to realise that there is going to be a constant level of infections, hopefully without that translating into people having bad outcomes (which by and large is what we’ve seen since vaccines took hold).

However our weak government has failed to manage expectations to the extend needed, which is why there are still people clamouring for restrictions. Likewise they’ve also failed to address the very real issue of people who want this to continue as an influencer for permanent changes to their workplace arrangements, again the government have been too weak to clamp down on this. There’s still plenty of people under the misapprehension that all the measures are there “to stop me catching Covid”, which is unfortunately completely unrealistic.

In essence England actually hasn’t done too badly in terms of its strategy since the summer. By contrast the communications have been utterly dire, like they have been all along.

As an aside, it’s interesting that with things not going so well in their management contracts, we don’t hear so much from Drakeford and Sturgeon nowadays. Their comms have tended to be better than Johnson’s, even if their policy choices haven’t been.
 
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Berliner

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People seem to be under impression this government does things that make sense, it doesn't. They will be introduced sooner or later. It'll be a political move to be seen to be doing something. The Tories have paid that money for a passport scheme as it does exist in England, it's just not up and running yet on the same scale as it is in neighbouring jurisdictions. Once there is a political motive to introduce it or a Tory donor can make money off the scheme it will be coming in properly. I'm not going to keep going round in circles and people can lambast me all they like but if Boris sees an opportunity to introduce it then he will and it'll be dressed up as being done to save others/the NHS/Christmas so the media back it.

We still have the pointless rigmarole of testing when coming back into the UK as it makes money for Tory chums and yet achieves very little. Once they find a way of giving another huge contract to another of their chums, you can bet Covid passports will be rolled out properly.

Why else do they keep saying "we are in for a difficult winter"? Surely if cases are low and vaccines are high winter will be fine? They are clearly planning on telling the population something they don't want to hear in order to make the winter less difficult...or at least appear as though it's less difficult..that plan B is coming. Anyway I'm not going to keep repeating myself.
 

bramling

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People seem to be under impression this government does things that make sense, it doesn't. They will be introduced sooner or later. It'll be a political move to be seen to be doing something. The Tories have paid that money for a passport scheme as it does exist in England, it's just not up and running yet on the same scale as it is in neighbouring jurisdictions. Once there is a political motive to introduce it or a Tory donor can make money off the scheme it will be coming in properly. I'm not going to keep going round in circles and people can lambast me all they like but if Boris sees an opportunity to introduce it then he will and it'll be dressed up as being done to save others/the NHS/Christmas so the media back it.

We still have the pointless rigmarole of testing when coming back into the UK as it makes money for Tory chums and yet achieves very little. Once they find a way of giving another huge contract to another of their chums, you can bet Covid passports will be rolled out properly.

Why else do they keep saying "we are in for a difficult winter"? Surely if cases are low and vaccines are high winter will be fine? They are clearly planning on telling the population something they don't want to hear in order to make the winter less difficult...or at least appear as though it's less difficult..that plan B is coming. Anyway I'm not going to keep repeating myself.

Yes I can relate to this from a workplace perspective. I’ve sat in meetings where ten people can sit round a table and agree that the optimum solution to an issue is one thing, but still end up opting for something completely different and acknowledged to be far less optimal simply because there is a feeling that this is the outcome which is least going to upset the apple cart.

As you say, if they do come in it won’t be because they’re what logic and sense dictate. Having said that, I still get the feeling quite a few people are attracted to the idea of “dirty” people being excluded from places, and them “clean” selves being welcome.
 

yorkie

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As you can see, England is in a much better position than both Scotland and Wales and far greater pressure from Covid is persisting in Scottish and Welsh hospitals. However, the mitigation measures enacted in both countries also raises interesting questions as to how effective face masks and vaccine passports really are as case rates and hospitalisations remain stubbornly high.
This is so true.

Cases are now soaring in many countries that mandate masks and/or have domestic vaccine passports.

The decision to open up in May and fully open in July by Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance was a stroke of genius. Make hay while the sun shines otherwise you're going to get a nasty and unmanageable peak in the winter. Scotland, Wales and other European countries are now finding that out that a consistent level of infection is probably better than wild peak and troughs that healthcare systems will struggle to cope with.

Basically you want to "flatten the curve" so that it is a consistent infection over a sustained period of time. Otherwise you're going to have massive peak and troughs which are just manageable. Many countries have failed to appreciate that and very naively followed a "zero Covid" strategy - something that does not exist.
I agree; certain individuals did seem to have many of the strategies that are more consistent with "zero Covid" than an acceptance it will become endemic, long after it was generally accepted that "zero Covid" was a pipe dream. They are going to be paying the price this winter.

People seem to be under impression this government does things that make sense, it doesn't. They will be introduced sooner or later. It'll be a political move to be seen to be doing something....
So you keep saying but I don't think so. Time will tell.
Anyway I'm not going to keep repeating myself.
I hope you stick to that, but if you don't, I'll be on standby to disagree ;)
 

bramling

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This is so true.

Cases are now soaring in many countries that mandate masks and/or have domestic vaccine passports.


I agree; certain individuals did seem to have many of the strategies that are more consistent with "zero Covid" than an acceptance it will become endemic, long after it was generally accepted that "zero Covid" was a pipe dream. They are going to be paying the price this winter.


So you keep saying but I don't think so. Time will tell.

I hope you stick to that, but if you don't, I'll be on standby to disagree ;)

Yes at least England seems to have dropped any notion of “zero Covid” being achievable. This hasn’t been communicated well to the population though, plenty of people still seem to believe it is what the objective is.

The government for their part seem happy to allow people to go on believing it, perhaps because it is easier than opening themselves up to having to defend a different position.
 

haggishunter

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We need context. If you compare the January 2021 peak to those in hospital, England is in a different position to Scotland and Wales.

England
Jan 2021: 34,000 peak
Now: 6,700
Drop: 80.3%

Scotland

Jan 2021: 2,000 peak
Now: 800
Drop: 60%

Wales

Jan 2021: 1,900 peak
Now: 620
Drop: 67%

As you can see, England is in a much better position than both Scotland and Wales and far greater pressure from Covid is persisting in Scottish and Welsh hospitals.

Some context is required with respect to the early January 2021 peak, England's higher % drop in hospital admissions was from a much higher covid prevalence, 651 cases per 100k in England and 291 cases per 100k in Scotland.

The rolling 7 day average for covid prevalence has been lower in England than Scotland for only 1 week out of the last 7 weeks, and that is highly likely to have occurred primarily due to differential half term holiday timings, and from the daily stats from the past few days covid prevalence in England has moved back above that of Scotland. Again that is likely to be the post school hols effect, like the October holidays, coming later in England than in Scotland. Have a look at the by age group charts on the Travelling Tabby website for Scotland and England.

So that really doesn't tie up with the viewpoint that England is in a better position than Scotland because it doesn't have the mitigations in place that Scotland and Wales does. Also in terms of opening up, Scotland was the first part of the UK and Ireland to reopen indoor hospitality.
 

takno

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Some context is required with respect to the early January 2021 peak, England's higher % drop in hospital admissions was from a much higher covid prevalence, 651 cases per 100k in England and 291 cases per 100k in Scotland.

The rolling 7 day average for covid prevalence has been lower in England than Scotland for only 1 week out of the last 7 weeks, and that is highly likely to have occurred primarily due to differential half term holiday timings, and from the daily stats from the past few days covid prevalence in England has moved back above that of Scotland. Again that is likely to be the post school hols effect, like the October holidays, coming later in England than in Scotland. Have a look at the by age group charts on the Travelling Tabby website for Scotland and England.

So that really doesn't tie up with the viewpoint that England is in a better position than Scotland because it doesn't have the mitigations in place that Scotland and Wales does. Also in terms of opening up, Scotland was the first part of the UK and Ireland to reopen indoor hospitality.
Maybe the bit of Scotland you were in was the first part of the UK to reopen indoor hospitality. The bit most of the population is in wasn't.

The prevalence stats are broadly similar between Scotland and England, and certainly aren't indicating any benefit from all the masks.

Given that the only stated aim of the vaccine passports is to bully the young into getting jabbed, the rate of vaccination since they were announced and implemented would be the most useful measure there. These also show that the policy doesn't work even on its own rather twisted terms.
 

Scotrail314209

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COVID update due at 2:20 pm. I wonder what Miss Sturgeon will bring up today. I think it's highly likely we'll see the vaccine passports being extended into more settings (:rolleyes:) and probably some tightening of the mask rules. (:rolleyes:)

Miss Sturgeon will have to tread carefully over the coming weeks since implementing anything huge could really kill her reputation in particular.
 

Smidster

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COVID update due at 2:20 pm. I wonder what Miss Sturgeon will bring up today. I think it's highly likely we'll see the vaccine passports being extended into more settings (:rolleyes:) and probably some tightening of the mask rules. (:rolleyes:)

Miss Sturgeon will have to tread carefully over the coming weeks since implementing anything huge could really kill her reputation in particular.

As with most other countries there will be more restrictions on business , more masks and more vaccine passports.

All feels so utterly hopeless right now
 

ainsworth74

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Miss Sturgeon will have to tread carefully over the coming weeks since implementing anything huge could really kill her reputation in particular.
Will it though? I still feel like there's a significant disconnect between where the country at large is and where the members of this sub-forum are. Which has been the case for probably the last twelve months or so. Which isn't to say I think there's any reason to tighten restrictions (I don't think there is) or whether I think Scotland's remaining restrictions are a good idea (I'm more ambivalent but probably trending towards no they're not). But I have yet to see any sign that Sturgeon (or anyone else really) is paying a price for their decisions in terms of their popularity.
 

bramling

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As with most other countries there will be more restrictions on business , more masks and more vaccine passports.

All feels so utterly hopeless right now

At some point this “if a measure isn’t working then let’s keep doing more of it” mentality needs to become properly salient and subject to scrutiny.

Scotland and Wales seem to consistently perform worse than England, and whilst there may be some explanation for that in not having been quite so badly affected (in some regions at least) at times last year, this cannot be the full picture.
 

Kite159

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So I gather the scope of what places you need to show your papers to enter might or might not be getting extended to cover more places. The decision won't be made for another couple weeks.

No doubt she will try and copy Italy and the other countries where you need to show papers to do anything, like shopping.
 

duncanp

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The BBC Live Page is reporting the following:-

Scotland's vaccine passport scheme could be rolled out to cinemas, theatres and more hospitality venues from 6 December, Scotland's first minister says.
Nicola Sturgeon says a final decision will not be taken until next Tuesday.

But she tells Holyrood that the rules may need to be tightened to get through winter without further restrictions.

The passport scheme currently only applies to nightclubs and major events such as concerts and football matches.

But she says it could be expanded to other venues - possibly indoor cinemas, theatres and other indoors hospitality premises.

She adds there will be exemptions, for weddings for example.

It will be a "challenging winter", Sturgeon says, and she wants businesses to stay "fully open" over winter and Christmas.

"If an expansion of Covid certification can help us to do that, it would be irresponsible of us not to consider it."

So a "final decision" will not be taken until next Tuesday?

Who does Nicola Sturgeon think she is trying to kid?

She is floating the idea of extending the Scottish vaccine passport scheme today to see what the reaction will be. Then, if there is not too much adverse comment, the restrictions will be introduced on 6th December.
 

bramling

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The BBC Live Page is reporting the following:-



So a "final decision" will not be taken until next Tuesday?

Who does Nicola Sturgeon think she is trying to kid?

She is floating the idea of extending the Scottish vaccine passport scheme today to see what the reaction will be. Then, if there is not too much adverse comment, the restrictions will be introduced on 6th December.

Time to suspend devolution.
 

haggishunter

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Maybe the bit of Scotland you were in was the first part of the UK to reopen indoor hospitality. The bit most of the population is in wasn't.

The prevalence stats are broadly similar between Scotland and England, and certainly aren't indicating any benefit from all the masks.

Given that the only stated aim of the vaccine passports is to bully the young into getting jabbed, the rate of vaccination since they were announced and implemented would be the most useful measure there. These also show that the policy doesn't work even on its own rather twisted terms.

Indoor hospitality reopened across the whole of Scotland on 26th April, on the step down from Level 4 to Level 3.

Scotland has the highest vaccination rate for 1st doses, 2nd doses and boosters and the highest rate of teenage vaccination of the U.K. nations.

As it happens I think the passports are unnecessary given level of vaccination achieved and some of the level 0-2 restrictions and social distancing would be easier to manage for most businesses than full application of a covid pass system across hospitality and leisure sectors.

The reality is living with covid is not letting it rip, not if we want to have a functional health service for everything else!
 

Scotrail314209

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We all know what the decision will be, there’s been too much hinting over the last week or so.

They say that the NHS is under strain, part of me thinks this may be because many GPs still aren’t seeing everyone face to face, nor is it easy to get an appointment. It’s human nature that people will then turn to the hospitals if they can’t get seen by their GP.
 

NorthKent1989

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The reality is living with covid is not letting it rip

How do you mean? Living with Covid means living with without restrictions or fretting about cases and accepting its here to stay like the cold and flu, if it “let’s rip” so be it.
 

greyman42

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How do you mean? Living with Covid means living with without restrictions or fretting about cases and accepting its here to stay like the cold and flu, if it “let’s rip” so be it.
Exactly. If it is not "let rip" then we are living with restrictions for the rest of our lives and surely no one wants that?
 

duncanp

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The reality is living with covid is not letting it rip, not if we want to have a functional health service for everything else!

"Living with COVID" means treating it the same way as we do flu, ie:-
  • free annual vaccinations for the most vulnerable
  • vaccination available for anyone else who wants it at a small cost
  • sensible advice about what to do if you have symptoms (ie. stay at home as much as is possible, and use self care such as paracetamol for symptom control)
  • sensible advice about measures to help contain the spread such as "catch it, kill it, bin it", and regular handwashing.
Other than that, there should be no restrictions such as vaccine passports, compulsory face coverings, forced closure of businesses or schools.

As regards a functional National Health Service, many of the current problems are due in part to people coming forward for treatment and investigations that should have taken place during the lockdown.

Reimposing restrictions now might buy some time for the NHS in the short term, but would only mean that the treatment backlog, and consequent pressure on the NHS, would be greater when the restrictions were lifted.

And in the long term, we need to have a properly functioning and fully open economy to generate sufficient tax revenue to pay for a NHS that meets our expectations and standards.
 

haggishunter

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Exactly. If it is not "let rip" then we are living with restrictions for the rest of our lives and surely no one wants that?

In the medium term if you want to have a functioning health service that isn't just fire fighting covid, then waxing and waning of restrictions and base mitigations to suppress covid prevalence are going to be a thing until either A) we acquire a sterilising vaccine that wholly prevents transmission or B) the pandemic naturally wanes by mutating to something less virulent - unfortunately the long incubation period rather negates the selective pressure on the virus to shift in that direction.

It's not having restrictions / mitigations that is damaging health care provision for non covid issues, it's the amount of healthcare resource being used to deal with covid. I'm at a loss as to how rational people can think therefore that the solution is thus more covid?
 

NorthKent1989

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Exactly. If it is not "let rip" then we are living with restrictions for the rest of our lives and surely no one wants that?

We are at a point where we can live with Covid, sadly some people are two years behind the rest of us
 

haggishunter

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We are at a point where we can live with Covid, sadly some people are two years behind the rest of us

Vaccinations have significantly reduced but not broken the link between covid infections and hospitalisations. Some people seem to be unable to grasp that a small % of a very big number is still a big number and therein lies the problem, as observed by the Irish Taoiseach earlier today - even with a highly vaccinated country you can't let the situation spiral into exponential growth or you end up with a situation no health service anywhere could cope with.
 

Scotrail314209

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I don't like the way this whole vaccine passport thing is going.

Soon it'll be shops and public transport. It's unfortunate for those who choose not to get the vaccine as they might be scared of adverse effects, which is completely understandable.

My mothers partner phoned up to try and get a medical exemption, only to be told the government haven't been giving them out for sometime. Surely thats a coincidence?
 

greyman42

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Soon it'll be shops and public transport. It's unfortunate for those who choose not to get the vaccine as they might be scared of adverse effects, which is completely understandable.
I don't understand it at all as there is no evidence that the vaccine causes any significant problems.
 

duncanp

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It's not having restrictions / mitigations that is damaging health care provision for non covid issues, it's the amount of healthcare resource being used to deal with covid. I'm at a loss as to how rational people can think therefore that the solution is thus more covid?

Most people who test positive for COVID do not need to go to hospital, and only a small proportion of NHS beds are occupied by COVID patients.

Much of the current pressure on the NHS is due to non COVID issues, such as people going to A&E because they are struggling to get a GP appointment, and the backlog of treatment that was delayed due to previous lockdowns.

So putting in extra restrictions such as vaccine passports or compulsory masks on public transport is not going to do a great deal to relieve pressure on the NHS.
 

Berliner

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Time to suspend devolution.

Why? England will follow in a few weeks. Or do people still think England will be the only part of the UK without some kind of vaccine passport over the coming "difficult winter" because Boris said so months ago?
 
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