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Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

jfollows

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To be honest the fact that it's the Guardian (awful rag though it is!) isn't the issue. We discussed this the other day; the claims made aren't supported by the data. A different doctor/scientist/other "expert" repeating the same thing doesn't make it true.
And it's the wrong data anyway, it's like looking down the wrong end of a telescope.

What matters to me, and to the vast majority of people I believe, is the likelihood of my being required to be in the ICU because of Covid when I have had three vaccinations to date.

The fact that some people who have received three vaccinations will be in hospital ICUs is unfortunate for them but mainly irrelevant to me. Many others have already observed this here. With increasing numbers of people being vaccinated, some of them will unfortunately end up in hospital still.

The figure that matters to me is my likelihood of doing so, and I believe the data supports my feeling that my likelihood is significantly lowered because of my vaccinations.

But what's happening in hospitals is largely irrelevant to this, other than it being circumstantial evidence and to be expected if my understanding of the science is correct.

EDIT Looking down the telescope in the proper direction
1. If 90% of people are vaccinated and the vaccination is 90% effective against hospitalisation, then a typical hospital would expect to see roughly equal numbers of unvaccinated patients as vaccinated ones.
2. If 70% of people are vaccinated and the vaccination is 95% effective against hospitalisation, then a typical hospital would expect to see roughly eight times the number of unvaccinated patients as vaccinated ones.
But it's only valid to generalise in the opposite direction if the one specific hospital in the article can be shown to be typical of all hospitals, which it may or may not be.
 
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MikeWM

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It is somewhat odd that the ICU/ventilator data doesn't appear to have any (public) breakdown by vaccination status, or at least if that data exists I can't find it - unlike the data on positive tests, hospital admissions and deaths, which is easy to find.

Until we have such data, it is rather hard to tell if these stories we keep seeing are the truth or just anecdotes.
 

adc82140

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Just sitting out my 15 mins at probably one of the country's smallest vaccination centres (local pharmacy). A big contrast to Southampton General Hospital where I had the first two.

Nice enough people, but why do they persist in pointing those thermometer things at people. I was queueing up outside beforehand, so it read a temperature so low it was incompatible with life.
 

greyman42

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It is somewhat odd that the ICU/ventilator data doesn't appear to have any (public) breakdown by vaccination status, or at least if that data exists I can't find it - unlike the data on positive tests, hospital admissions and deaths, which is easy to find.

Until we have such data, it is rather hard to tell if these stories we keep seeing are the truth or just anecdotes.
I don't know about vaccination status, but i would like to see a breakdown regarding general health (such as being overweight) status but i don't think that is going to happen.

Why are the same places that dished out the first two doses not doing the booster? I've just had "the letter", and when I went to check out where I need to go, the closest places are miles away in Medway, and I live in Sittingbourne. Last time I only needed to go to my local town centre, which is only a ~10 minute cycle ride away. I only went last time because I was under the impression that I would only need two, and that it was the way to end restrictions, but that has not turned out not to be the case. Also, I hate needles and could get it out of the way quickly, but now I've got to spent a significant portion of a day on it. I'm not sure I'm going to bother, I don't see why I need it anyway.
I believe the booster dose i very beneficial so i will be having it as soon as possible.
Regarding you hating needles, well you don't have to like them and the first two did not do you any harm.
 
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kristiang85

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Regarding you hating needles, well you don't have to like them and the first two did not do you any harm.

Although it is easy to be flippant, I think I read somewhere that it is estimated that vaccination rates of any disease would go up by 10-15% at least if an alternative to needles was used. So it is worth looking into the tech (which has been developed in various forms for a couple of decades now, but not widely used).

And in terms of COVID, I'm also sure I saw a study where it said it is actually more beneficial to be administered straight into the nose rather than into the bloodstream, so a nasal administration would preferred, albeit hasn't been developed for COVID (but has been used for other upper respiratory tract illnesses).
 

jfollows

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Although it is easy to be flippant, I think I read somewhere that it is estimated that vaccination rates of any disease would go up by 10-15% at least if an alternative to needles was used. So it is worth looking into the tech (which has been developed in various forms for a couple of decades now, but not widely used).

And in terms of COVID, I'm also sure I saw a study where it said it is actually more beneficial to be administered straight into the nose rather than into the bloodstream, so a nasal administration would preferred, albeit hasn't been developed for COVID (but has been used for other upper respiratory tract illnesses).
Having a pill rather than an injection would be a long-term nirvana if we're going to continue to need vaccination, I know that it's much harder to target the appropriate parts of the body with a pill but I'm sure I've read that it's something being thought about for the longer term. I mean, I now take 5 pills a day so adding, say, a monthly Covid pill would be a minor change to my regime.

EDIT I'm lucky, I couldn't care less about needles, I watch when I'm injected with something if I can, but I've still got to make an appointment and have the vaccine administered by someone appropriately qualified so it's still a bit of a hassle.

EDIT I also remember noting that I had a non-needle "jet injector" for my BCG vaccination in the mid-1970s ( #37 ) and that the technology for this had been discussed in 1970, so that's 50 years ago now! The trade-off would appear to be decreased calibration accuracy and increased "unpleasant reactions" versus better take-up of the vaccination in the first place.
 
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yorksrob

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Not impressed by the booster process.

Not one walk-in centre in Wakefield or Leeds.

For booking it directs you to a website which then says you can't book it.
 

Cdd89

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Having a pill rather than an injection would be a long-term nirvana if we're going to continue to need vaccination, I know that it's much harder to target the appropriate parts of the body with a pill but I'm sure I've read that it's something being thought about for the longer term
I’m sure I’m in the minority, but if the Covid vaccine could only be taken by pill (and couldn’t be crushed) then I would be unable to take it and that’s that.
 

The Ham

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To be honest the fact that it's the Guardian (awful rag though it is!) isn't the issue. We discussed this the other day; the claims made aren't supported by the data. A different doctor/scientist/other "expert" repeating the same thing doesn't make it true.

One thing which wasn't discussed the other day was whilst it maybe the case that more people are admitted to hospital after having had the vaccine they may not be the largest group in hospital or in a given hospital.

Let me explain, it could be that the vaccine reduces the length of time needed to be in hospital then it could be that the average time the vaccinated are in hospital could be 3 days compared to (say) 6 data for the unvaccinated. That would mean that we could admit nearly double the number who are vaccinated but still take up less resources than the unvaccinated.

Likewise we looked at the national picture, it may well be that the doctor (in a specific hospital) is commenting on their experience in that hospital. If that hospital is somewhere with low rates of vaccine uptake then it is perfectly possible that in that hospital the numbers are skewed towards there being lots of non vaccinated people being treated (especially if the above is also true).
 

DustyBin

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One thing which wasn't discussed the other day was whilst it maybe the case that more people are admitted to hospital after having had the vaccine they may not be the largest group in hospital or in a given hospital.

True, and anecdotally this could be the case, although the article(s) in question sought to create the impression that this was the case generally (that’s how I interpreted them anyway).

Let me explain, it could be that the vaccine reduces the length of time needed to be in hospital then it could be that the average time the vaccinated are in hospital could be 3 days compared to (say) 6 data for the unvaccinated. That would mean that we could admit nearly double the number who are vaccinated but still take up less resources than the unvaccinated.

This is theoretically possible but the majority of hospital admissions are in the vaccinated over 70s, who also account for the overwhelming number of deaths. In terms of absolute numbers, I strongly suspect that it’s this group taking up the most resources.

Likewise we looked at the national picture, it may well be that the doctor (in a specific hospital) is commenting on their experience in that hospital. If that hospital is somewhere with low rates of vaccine uptake then it is perfectly possible that in that hospital the numbers are skewed towards there being lots of non vaccinated people being treated (especially if the above is also true).

Is there anywhere in the UK with a sufficiently low vaccine uptake for this to be an issue? I’ll confess to having not looked at the regional data.

The points you raise are perfectly valid and worthy of discussion; I maintain however that the linked articles themselves attempt to mislead.
 
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The Ham

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True, and anecdotally this could be the case, although the article(s) in question sought to create the impression that this was the case generally (that’s how I interpreted them anyway).



This is theoretically possible but the majority of hospital admissions are in the vaccinated over 70s, who also account for the overwhelming number of deaths. In terms of absolute numbers, I strongly suspect that it’s this group taking up the most resources.

Again it depends, the over 70's may well die quite quickly whilst someone in their 40's may last in hospital for some time before finally being released.

Is there anywhere in the UK with a sufficiently low vaccine uptake for this to be an issue? I’ll confess to having not looked at the regional data.

The points you raise are perfectly valid and worthy of discussion; I maintain however that the linked articles themselves attempt to mislead.

It may not even be regional, Jewelry Quarter in Birmingham shows as 53% having had the first dose whilst Solihull shows 77% having had 2 doses.

It's a pattern which is repeated with lots of cities having lower rates than nearby areas, it could be enough that urban hospitals see higher rates of non vaccinated whilst those for mixed urban/rural or smaller urban hospitals (which could make up a higher number of hospitals overall) could see more vaccinated people.

Whilst there paper may well be looking for articles which favour a particular view, the person being interviewed may well be portraying an accurate picture of what they are seeing.
 

DustyBin

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Again it depends, the over 70's may well die quite quickly whilst someone in their 40's may last in hospital for some time before finally being released.

In which case you’d be correct on an individual level, however the data suggests that those over 70s would simply be replaced by more over 70s so it is therefore still that group taking up the most resources.

It may not even be regional, Jewelry Quarter in Birmingham shows as 53% having had the first dose whilst Solihull shows 77% having had 2 doses.

Interesting, thanks. The focus should be on vaccinating the vulnerable in those communities in my opinion as that’s where the biggest “return” will be seen.

It's a pattern which is repeated with lots of cities having lower rates than nearby areas, it could be enough that urban hospitals see higher rates of non vaccinated whilst those for mixed urban/rural or smaller urban hospitals (which could make up a higher number of hospitals overall) could see more vaccinated people.

Whilst there paper may well be looking for articles which favour a particular view, the person being interviewed may well be portraying an accurate picture of what they are seeing.

Again, you may be correct but the statements made in both articles are demonstrably untrue. Whilst your points are well thought out I think you’re giving the authors of these articles (and the Guardian) too much credit personally!
 

MikeWM

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It is certainly possible that, despite the clear majority of hospital admissions 'with'/'of' Covid being fully vaccinated, and the clear majority of deaths 'with'/'of' also being fully vaccinated [1], that the clear majority of ICU patients may be unvaccinated. I can see ways that this *could* happen. But I'd like to see some properly broken-down stats to see what actually is happening, as opposed to anecdote.

Though note that if this is the case, that too may be concerning - if eg. a lot of vaccinated patients are being admitted to hospital and then dying without seeing ICU inbetween, we'd have to question why that is the case too. It is possible that this could point to an overliberal use of DNR orders, for example.

[1] yes, this is because the large majority of the population have been vaccinated, not because the vaccines are useless. Before someone else points that out - I know! But in this case we're talking raw numbers, not proportions.
 

adc82140

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I'm the day after my booster shot today, and I feel seriously rough. I was willing to do this as a one (or two) off, but I'm not going through it every six months. Today is a write off. Wish I'd done it in work hours, then at least I could feel crap on their time. I'm sitting at home shivering, with the heating on full blast and my winter coat on.
 

bramling

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Though note that if this is the case, that too may be concerning - if eg. a lot of vaccinated patients are being admitted to hospital and then dying without seeing ICU inbetween, we'd have to question why that is the case too. It is possible that this could point to an overliberal use of DNR orders, for example.

Could this be a case of arrived in hospital and deemed too weak for ventilation?

I know of at least one in that position. Arrived in hospital, essentially dumped in a room, given an oxygen mask, told "there's nothing we can do for you", and checked up on every couple of hours.
 

Snow1964

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It is certainly possible that, despite the clear majority of hospital admissions 'with'/'of' Covid being fully vaccinated, and the clear majority of deaths 'with'/'of' also being fully vaccinated [1], that the clear majority of ICU patients may be unvaccinated. I can see ways that this *could* happen. But I'd like to see some properly broken-down stats to see what actually is happening, as opposed to anecdote.

Though note that if this is the case, that too may be concerning - if eg. a lot of vaccinated patients are being admitted to hospital and then dying without seeing ICU inbetween, we'd have to question why that is the case too. It is possible that this could point to an overliberal use of DNR orders, for example.

[1] yes, this is because the large majority of the population have been vaccinated, not because the vaccines are useless. Before someone else points that out - I know! But in this case we're talking raw numbers, not proportions.

The statistics are quite confusing, seems over 50% of covid cases are under 20 years old (the last group to be vaccinated), and of course some of those haven’t bothered, and those under 12 are not offered jab anyway.

But very few under 20s are hospitalised (and those that are generally have other conditions or illnesses)

Hospital rates of over 70s seem to be falling rapidly as boosters are rolled out, over 60s have now had 6 months since jab2 (unless they delayed it), 27% of over 12s have now had third jab so rates should fall further.

The death statistics are still rather vague (within 28 days of a positive test, doesn’t mean died of covid), as an example could have had heart attack 3 weeks after test. Therefore difficult to say how many of the about 1700 deaths which occur (on average) every day are solely due to covid, clearly only a fraction of the within 28 days of positive test.

Occasionally our local news seems to do reports based on what appears to be happening in hospital, and it is clear that majority of serious cases are in unvaccinated, seems to be 70-85% of serious cases (an exact number doesn’t seem to exist, and this is hospital staff interpretation)
 

MikeWM

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Could this be a case of arrived in hospital and deemed too weak for ventilation?

I know of at least one in that position. Arrived in hospital, essentially dumped in a room, given an oxygen mask, told "there's nothing we can do for you", and checked up on every couple of hours.

I suspect this has an effect (although that specific experience isn't saying a lot for the NHS :-/ )

There's probably very little point in sending the old and/or those who are otherwise very ill to ICU.

In 18-39 year olds, there are more unvaccinated than vaccinated even on raw numbers being admitted to hospital, 40-49 approximately equal, it reverses for 50-59. (This appears to be due to the differential takeup in those groups - in each group between 18 and 59, pro rata, the chances of being admitted to hospital are approximately 4 times greater for unvaccinated).

So age certainly has an effect - I suppose at this point the question is what the profile of people going into intensive care with Covid actually is, and I don't think we're being given that data.

Occasionally our local news seems to do reports based on what appears to be happening in hospital, and it is clear that majority of serious cases are in unvaccinated, seems to be 70-85% of serious cases (an exact number doesn’t seem to exist, and this is hospital staff interpretation)

Indeed. We're getting quite good statistics in other areas, I'm not sure why these stats aren't being publically released, at least at the national level.
 

greyman42

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I'm the day after my booster shot today, and I feel seriously rough. I was willing to do this as a one (or two) off, but I'm not going through it every six months. Today is a write off. Wish I'd done it in work hours, then at least I could feel crap on their time. I'm sitting at home shivering, with the heating on full blast and my winter coat on.
Hopefully it will just be for one day, let us know.
 

jumble

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With multiple vaccines now releasing results, I thought it could be useful to have a place to discuss their approval, deployment, and effects on society. Here's a section from the BBC's article to set the tone I was thinking of:




More details are surfacing about the rollout plan; apparently, the NHS is hoping to give out a million doses a week. That would mean over a year for a full-population vaccination programme; and starts to raise questions about when we should begin to lift restrictions.

My Own GP has pontificated in the Mail that Vaccines should be mandatory
I think it is disgraceful and am deciding whether to sign up elsewhere
It is a sad day when a doctor wants to change the fundamental principle in this country that no one of sound mind is ever mandated to have any compulsory medical treatment

 

Busaholic

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I'm the day after my booster shot today, and I feel seriously rough.
I got flu-like symptoms the day after both first and second jabs that lasted 24 hours in each case (Astra Zeneca vaccine) and subtly different symptoms after the booster (Pfizer this time) with a sore arm to boot, but the latter was probably down to remembering the retired doctor who gave it to me had been my G.P. for years and he was always a rotten jabber!
 

MikeWM

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My Own GP has pontificated in the Mail that Vaccines should be mandatory
I think it is disgraceful and am deciding whether to sign up elsewhere
It is a sad day when a doctor wants to change the fundamental principle in this country that no one of sound mind is ever mandated to have any compulsory medical treatment


After reading that article I couldn't have any confidence in him if he was my GP. Not just for the mandatory vaccine thing, which is abhorrent, but he also seems to have little grasp of medical ethics or indeed wider issues around Covid.

If I were feeling charitable, I suppose you could say that being on the 'frontline' for so long has skewed his opinions somewhat. Nevertheless I couldn't keep him as my GP after this.
 

Mag_seven

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I know a good few people who have felt rather rough for 3-4 days after their Pfizer second or booster. A few for a bit longer than that.

After my Pfizer booster I had a sore arm and felt a bit rough / tired for about 24 hours. I also had a flu jab at the same time as my booster.
 

adc82140

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Feeling somewhat better this morning, but still tired. I was a bit unwell for 6 hours following the first jab, and not at all after the second. This was the worst by far, probably not helped by the fact I had a nasty encounter with Covid in 2020.
 

island

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I had my booster jab last week and this has been recorded on the NHS App. This morning I received a text from "NHSvaccine" inviting me to book a booster. :rolleyes:
It is preferable that people be notified multiple times than not at all.
 

jfollows

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I had my booster jab last week and this has been recorded on the NHS App. This morning I received a text from "NHSvaccine" inviting me to book a booster. :rolleyes:
Likewise, of course it does no real harm, I had my booster last Friday and a text from "NHSVaccine" this morning with the same invitation.

EDIT And, at 11:56, I also received an email invitation to do the same.
 
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quantinghome

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Booster booked. The data is increasingly showing how remarkably effective they are, but take up is somewhat off. This shouldn't be treated like an optional extra, especially with the news coming in from Southern Africa. Let's encourage everyone we know to get the shot.
 

LowLevel

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Booster booked. The data is increasingly showing how remarkably effective they are, but take up is somewhat off. This shouldn't be treated like an optional extra, especially with the news coming in from Southern Africa. Let's encourage everyone we know to get the shot.
You ain't from these parts, are you pardner? :lol:
 

adc82140

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Booster booked. The data is increasingly showing how remarkably effective they are, but take up is somewhat off. This shouldn't be treated like an optional extra, especially with the news coming in from Southern Africa. Let's encourage everyone we know to get the shot.
Yet certain elements of the media are doing their level best today to undermine the vaccine programme, by saying that this new variant will completely evade the vaccine. Which isn't true.
 

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