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Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

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yorkie

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See IT WAS BILL GATES' IDEA ALL ALONG :lol:

Not sure on the dose count. The Pfizer vaccine requires two shots - so should we be dividing the nearly five million doses by two?
Yes I believe so; from the BBC article linked to in the post above:
Some 800,000 doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine have been secured by the government to be administered in the coming weeks - although vaccination is not compulsory.
Orders have been placed for 40 million in total - enough for 20 million people, as two courses are needed.
However, I suspect that once the Oxford vaccine becomes available, then subject to any availability limitations, they will want to no longer bother with the Pfizer vaccine (other than administering any doses already purchased) because the Oxford vaccine is much cheaper to produce and store.

That said, as more information comes to light, it may be the case that the different types of vaccine are targetted towards particular groups of people, for example if it turns out that one type of vaccine is more effective than another under certain circumstances.
 
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ainsworth74

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However, I suspect that once the Oxford vaccine becomes available, then subject to any availability limitations, they will want to no longer bother with the Pfizer vaccine (other than administering any doses already purchased) because the Oxford vaccine is much cheaper to produce and store.

That said, as more information comes to light, it may be the case that the different types of vaccine are targetted towards particular groups of people, for example if it turns out that one type of vaccine is more effective than another under certain circumstances.

Yes that seems likely doesn't it? We'd obviously use what we've ordered and paid for but I can well see that if, for instance, the Pfizer vaccine is more effective in over 80s than the Oxford vaccine that we'll target the Pfizer vaccine at them and leave Oxford for other groups.
 

nlogax

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That said, as more information comes to light, it may be the case that the different types of vaccine are targetted towards particular groups of people, for example if it turns out that one type of vaccine is more effective than another under certain circumstances.
That's one thing that's not been made clear yet but I look forward to seeing the guidance. Efficacy is one metric, but I remember hearing on R4 recently about where mRNA-derived vaccines should or shouldn't be targeted for people with specific health conditions.
 

Bantamzen

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Worrying news this lunchtime about the first reciptient of the vaccine ;)




More seriously the first vaccines have indeed been delivered to people outside of the clinical trials this morning. I think this qualifies as extremely good news:



That made me chuckle. :D

Of course you also realise that the vaccine will only work for a couple of weeks, and will wear off after the 17th Windoze update & 5th blue screen of death in a week.... ;)
 

adc82140

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The Oxford vaccine is safe and effective, according to the Lancet. So that's the peer review done and dusted. The MHRA will have the same data. Interestingly it also says it reduces the spread. The Pfizer one may also do that, but it's not been confirmed.

BBC report here:


The Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid vaccine is safe and effective, giving good protection, researchers have confirmed in The Lancet journal.

Most in the study were younger than 55, but the results so far indicate it does work well in older people too.

The data also suggest it can reduce spread of Covid, as well protect against illness and death.

The paper, assessed by independent scientists, sets out full results from advanced trials of over 20,000 people.

Regulators, who will have seen the same data, are considering the jab for emergency use.
 

HSTEd

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Yes I believe so; from the BBC article linked to in the post above:

However, I suspect that once the Oxford vaccine becomes available, then subject to any availability limitations, they will want to no longer bother with the Pfizer vaccine (other than administering any doses already purchased) because the Oxford vaccine is much cheaper to produce and store.

That said, as more information comes to light, it may be the case that the different types of vaccine are targetted towards particular groups of people, for example if it turns out that one type of vaccine is more effective than another under certain circumstances.

It seems likely that they will take as many doses as they can get from as many people as they can.

The Oxford vaccine does not use the same specialist resources as the others, so does not necessarily compete with Pfizer for deployment resources.

The cost of the vaccines is negligble compared to the advantage from a faster rollout.
 

yorksrob

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The Oxford vaccine is safe and effective, according to the Lancet. So that's the peer review done and dusted. The MHRA will have the same data. Interestingly it also says it reduces the spread. The Pfizer one may also do that, but it's not been confirmed.

BBC report here:


That's certainly good news - particularly as I believe it's the only one out of the main 3 not to be a "live" vaccine, so might be more useful for those with compromised immune systems.
 

Chester1

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Yes that seems likely doesn't it? We'd obviously use what we've ordered and paid for but I can well see that if, for instance, the Pfizer vaccine is more effective in over 80s than the Oxford vaccine that we'll target the Pfizer vaccine at them and leave Oxford for other groups.

Some of the media are suggesting that the emergency licence could be limited to 18-55 year olds because that is who received the more successful half a dose then one dose. Assuming it is OK to start roll out late next month then NHS and care staff and general population with underlying health conditions aged under 55 would be a good place to start. Over 80s and high risk health and social care workers should have had the Pfizer vaccine by that point.

The Govermment has ordered 40 million Pfizer doses (sufficient for 20 million people). Combined with the Oxford vaccine order they will have sufficient to double vaccinate at least 3 million people, if its necessary. That assumes an impossible 100% take up and excludes the Moderna vaccine order which is sufficient for 7 million people (but won't start to arrive until spring).

That's one thing that's not been made clear yet but I look forward to seeing the guidance. Efficacy is one metric, but I remember hearing on R4 recently about where mRNA-derived vaccines should or shouldn't be targeted for people with specific health conditions.

Other measures are hospitalisations and deaths. None of the 24,000 receipients of the Oxford vaccine have been hospitalised, let alone died. A handful of Pfizer testees have been hospitalised but none died. The winner so far seems to be the Moderna vaccine which has similar efficacy to Pfizer but no hospitalisations (but its not finished its trial yet).
 

ainsworth74

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The minister for vaccine deployment has just tweeted the following stats on progress with deploying the vaccine:

A really good start to the vaccination program. It’s been 7 days and we have done: England:108,000 Wales: 7,897 Northern Ireland: 4,000. Scotland:18,000 U.K Total 137,897. That number will increase as we have operationalised hundreds of PCN (primary care networks)

Feels pretty respectable for the first week but obviously it will need to increase considerably and quickly!

(Also anyone else cringe at "operationalised"?)
 

adc82140

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Our local surgery starts today. I'm pleasantly surprised as we're quite rural.
 

HSTEd

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So a tiny fraction of the promised vaccination rate!

About 290 weeks until the 20 million are hit twice at that rate.
 

adc82140

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So a tiny fraction of the promised vaccination rate!

About 290 weeks until the 20 million are hit twice at that rate.
No. It's fairly obvious that week 1 will be slower than the rest. Think rolling stock refurbishment as an example.
 

HSTEd

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No. It's fairly obvious that week 1 will be slower than the rest. Think rolling stock refurbishment as an example.

That is a dangerous comparison to make.

I raise you the Class 230!
Or even the power door Mark 3s.

Where the rate is pretty much zero!
 

MattA7

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I wonder if vaccinated individuals will be exempt from self-isolation regulations if someone in there household or a close contact tests positive.
 

hwl

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No. It's fairly obvious that week 1 will be slower than the rest. Think rolling stock refurbishment as an example.
Exactly.

We also have limited Pfizer vaccine stocks.
We don't want to waste any.
We need to be able to do at least double the current rate in 3 weeks time hence no point in going to fast in the first 3 weeks if you can't keep going at the same pace and do the second jabs as well.
I don't see the number of Pfizer jabs per week going over 4-5x that rate as the logistics are awful and that would match medium /long term supply through 2021.

Approval of the Oxford/AZ vaccine with a much higher supply rate (average 2 - 2.5m doses per week) will probably see a different scale of vaccination programme.

I wonder if vaccinated individuals will be exempt from self-isolation regulations if someone in there household or a close contact tests positive.
No data on transmission rate reduction yet, so unlikely.
 

brad465

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I cannot remember where I saw this, it may even have been on this site, but I recall reading that 12 million over-65s were vaccinated against flu in 2 months, which if true sounds promising. The 2 doses needed for the Covid vaccine means it'll take longer this time, but maybe only a month more if the expansion of rollout capacity improves.

(Please correct me if this isn't correct)
 

The Ham

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I cannot remember where I saw this, it may even have been on this site, but I recall reading that 12 million over-65s were vaccinated against flu in 2 months, which if true sounds promising. The 2 doses needed for the Covid vaccine means it'll take longer this time, but maybe only a month more if the expansion of rollout capacity improves.

(Please correct me if this isn't correct)

About 60% of the entire population is vaccinated within 6 months (although very few are actually done in the first or last 6 weeks, so in reality something like 50% in 3 months), although only needing 1 vaccine helps a lot.
 

MattA7

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It looks like the US FDA is about to approve the Moderna vaccine very soon. Presumably this means the UK will do the same I imagine if it’s good enough/safe enough to meet FDA standards is good enough for MRHA standards. Although I think it’s the one the UK ordered the least of (only 5 million) so unlikely to make much odds even if approved.
A second coronavirus vaccine is nearing emergency approval in the US after it was endorsed by a panel of experts.
The head of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said his agency would move quickly to authorise the Moderna vaccine, allowing the company to begin shipping millions of doses.
It comes days after the US began its largest ever immunisation campaign with the rollout of the Pfizer/BioNTech jab.
 

Domh245

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I don't think the MHRA will be in any rush to approve the Moderna vaccine as we won't be receiving it until Spring, all effort should (and hopefully is) focused on the Ox/AZ vaccine which once approved could begin to be injected within days
 

MattA7

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I don't think the MHRA will be in any rush to approve the Moderna vaccine as we won't be receiving it until Spring, all effort should (and hopefully is) focused on the Ox/AZ vaccine which once approved could begin to be injected within days
Why would Moderna not be available until spring surely any can be used as soon as approved by the MHRA. It also doesn’t have the ultra low temperature storage requirement of Pifizer/BioNTech.
 

Domh245

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Why would Moderna not be available until spring surely any can be used as soon as approved by the MHRA.

Because that's the earliest that they can/will deliver to us. As per a press release when we secured an additional 2mil doses

UK government secures additional 2 million doses of Moderna COVID-19 vaccine​


  • UK government has now secured 7 million doses of Moderna vaccine, which will be available in Europe as early as spring 2021
  • trials show vaccine is almost 95% effective
  • deal means the UK now has access to a total of 357 million doses of vaccines from 7 different developers

The UK government has today (Sunday 29 November) signed a deal for a further 2 million doses of Moderna’s promising vaccine candidate, bringing the total to 7 million doses for the UK.

Following today’s deal, the UK now has access to enough doses of Moderna’s vaccine candidate for around 3.5 million people.

To be approved for use in the UK, the Moderna vaccine must meet the strict standards of safety and effectiveness of the independent medicines regulator, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA). If it is approved, 7 million doses could start to be delivered to the UK as early as spring 2021 - the same timetable as other countries in Europe.

...

No point approving something well in advance of time when there's doses of vaccine already here just awaiting approval
 

hwl

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Why would Moderna not be available until spring surely any can be used as soon as approved by the MHRA. It also doesn’t have the ultra low temperature storage requirement of Pifizer/BioNTech.
to add to what @Domh245 has said, the UK government didn't originally agree to buy any of the Moderna vaccine until after the successful results of the Stage 2 trial at which point it was at the end of a very long queue as other countries had got their orders in first.

The Moderna vaccine is the most expensive of any of the covid vaccines and twice as expensive as the Pfizer one which was probably in the minds of those in government looking to purchase vaccines.
The Oxford/AZ vaccine is potentially just 1/9th to 1/11th of the cost of the Moderna one if the half then full dose if approved and used for the Oxford /AZ one.

Production of the Moderna vaccine is also the least scaleable of any of the vaccines.
 

Richard Scott

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What is the state of play with the Oxford vaccine at the moment? This seems to be the one that offers hope of getting on with life as cheaper and easier to store.
 

duncanp

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What is the state of play with the Oxford vaccine at the moment? This seems to be the one that offers hope of getting on with life as cheaper and easier to store.

According to the BBC, it could be approved before the end of the year.

The cynic in me says that Boris Johnson will use the vaccine approval as a sweetener to counteract people's reaction to the inevitable third lockdown, which the government "hopes to avoid".
 

adc82140

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According to the BBC, it could be approved before the end of the year.

The cynic in me says that Boris Johnson will use the vaccine approval as a sweetener to counteract people's reaction to the inevitable third lockdown, which the government "hopes to avoid".
Hence my earlier theory that it'll be branded a "vaccine lockdown"
 

duncanp

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The Telegraph are reporting that the Oxford vaccine will be given approval before the end of the year.


So some good news at last.

The Oxford vaccine is expected to be approved within days of Christmas, kickstarting a massive drive to give jabs to millions of people in January, The Telegraph can reveal.

Senior Whitehall sources believe the Medicines and Healthcare Regulatory Agency (MHRA) will authorise the vaccines on December 28 or 29 after final data is provided to the regulator on Monday.

Football stadia and other sites across the country will then be opened from the first week of January, to allow mass vaccinations on a scale never seen before in the UK.

However, the progress comes amid growing fears that England is about to enter a third lockdown, with the Prime Minister recently refusing to rule out following Wales and Northern Ireland in such a course of action.

Last week the NHS began the first Covid-19 vaccination programme in the world, with jabs given to around 140,000 elderly people and health and care workers in the first seven days.

This week the rollout has expanded far more widely, with around 400 GP centres now involved, as well as 83 hospitals.

Over the weekend, the total number of Britons who have received the jab is expected to pass the 500,000 mark, The Telegraph understands.


By next week, more than 200,000 people a day should be receiving jabs, equating to well over one million doses a week by Christmas.

Once the Oxford jab gets the green light, the opening of mass vaccination centres will mean this can be increased to several million doses a week, Whitehall sources say.

It means Britain is on course to vaccinate the 20 million most vulnerable people by March, allowing far greater release of restrictions, with the prospect the whole country could be vaccinated by summer.

However, the progress comes amid increasing infections, and pressure on hospitals.

On Friday, Boris Johnson was asked whether England would follow Northern Ireland, which is introducing a six-week lockdown from Boxing Day.

He said: "We're hoping very much that we will be able to avoid anything like that. But the reality is that the rates of infection have increased very much in the last few weeks."

Britain has ordered 100 million doses of the vaccines, four million of which are immediately available, allowing a major expansion in the NHS vaccine programme across the country.

Unlike the Pfizer jab, the Oxford vaccine can be stored in regular refrigerators, meaning it can be administered far more easily, from thousands of sites across the UK.

Authorisation by the MHRA will also give confidence to countries across the world. India has already manufactured more than 50 million of the AstraZeneca vaccines.

The NHS has drawn up plans for “large scale” vaccination sites, in football stadiums, racecourses and conference centres to start administering jabs from the first week of January.

The programme will also be expanded to high-street pharmacies, while the number of GP sites involved in the programme will continue to expand.

The rapid rollout of the programme has seen some teething problems this week, with some GPs complaining that deliveries have been cancelled with little notice, while others say they have been offered more jabs than they can keep up with.

However, health officials hope that the authorisation of the Oxford jab will prove a “game-changer”, allowing vaccines to be transported and administered far more easily.

Although the first batch of four million doses will be delivered from the Netherlands and Germany, the bulk of manufacturing will take place in this country, allowing for easy access.

AstraZeneca has said a further 15 million doses of active ingredients are ready, and can be filled into vials in a matter of days.

The full order of 100 million doses, in addition to 40 million doses of the Pfizer jabs being imported from Belgium, is enough to vaccinate the whole country. The speed of rollout means the majority of those aged 80 and over are likely to receive the Pfizer vaccine, which was authorised first.

Both types of vaccine require two doses, with a three-week gap between them for the Pfizer one, and a four-week gap for the AstraZeneca vaccine.

The AstraZeneca vaccine has taken longer for regulators to assess, because of differences in the efficacy rates found in different groups, ranging from 62 to 90 per cent. However, a study released this week suggests that leaving an adequate gap between doses is the most crucial way to boost efficacy.
 

ainsworth74

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Definitely. The Oxford vaccine is the one that's going to be the game changer for us as then the issue will become our ability to deliver it rather than how many we've actually got!
 

MattA7

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Definitely. The Oxford vaccine is the one that's going to be the game changer for us as then the issue will become our ability to deliver it rather than how many we've actually got!

am I correct in thinking we already have the Oxford vaccine manufactured and ready for use we just have to wait until it’s approved before it starts getting used.
 
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