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Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

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Richard Scott

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In the papers today...80% (Eighty percent) of the AZ vaccine in Mainland Europe is unused ! seems they do not trust the AZ vaccine, yet all that fuss they made about the UK not letting them have their fair share !
Think some countries have shot themselves in the foot, politicians and media with big mouths and next to no facts. Probably has cost lives in those countries. Looks like real world data not backing up what they said so now they look stupid too.
 
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35B

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In the papers today...80% (Eighty percent) of the AZ vaccine in Mainland Europe is unused ! seems they do not trust the AZ vaccine, yet all that fuss they made about the UK not letting them have their fair share !
Amazing what some politicians will do to deflect attention...
 

DB

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In the papers today...80% (Eighty percent) of the AZ vaccine in Mainland Europe is unused ! seems they do not trust the AZ vaccine, yet all that fuss they made about the UK not letting them have their fair share !

Is this ideological, or just that they've not got their act together with their vaccine programmes ? (this is about the only aspect of this situation where the UK government can justificably claim to have been one of the most effective in the world).
 

yorksrob

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In the papers today...80% (Eighty percent) of the AZ vaccine in Mainland Europe is unused ! seems they do not trust the AZ vaccine, yet all that fuss they made about the UK not letting them have their fair share !

I don't know how true the article is, but if true it does rather take the heat off of us for a bit.

Lets fill our boots before our European allies realise that they ought to be getting on with it.
 

nlogax

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Is this ideological, or just that they've not got their act together with their vaccine programmes ? (this is about the only aspect of this situation where the UK government can justificably claim to have been one of the most effective in the world).
Little from column a and a little from column b. Look at Germany for example. Never had the strongest track record of vaccination uptake to begin with but national media has portrayed the AZ vaccine as inferior compared to Moderna or the homegrown Pfizer offering. People aren't turning up to receive their jabs, though that suggests they're being told ahead of time which variety they're getting.
 

Simon11

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Not helped with the biggest countries in Europe not giving our vaccine to over 65s! Yes there was limited data back in January for this group, however the difference between a 50 year old and a 80 year old with this jab are likely to be similar? I wonder how many lives have been lost in Europe due to this decision!

 

VauxhallandI

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In the papers today...80% (Eighty percent) of the AZ vaccine in Mainland Europe is unused ! seems they do not trust the AZ vaccine, yet all that fuss they made about the UK not letting them have their fair share !
Not sure I’d trust anything the papers say on anything Covid related never mind Covid and EU related
 

Bald Rick

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In the papers today...80% (Eighty percent) of the AZ vaccine in Mainland Europe is unused ! seems they do not trust the AZ vaccine, yet all that fuss they made about the UK not letting them have their fair share !

Many countries elected to prohibit vaccination of over 65s with it, as their interpretation of the data was that it was not clear if it was effective enough in that age group.

Of course it turns out that it is. Doesn’t look like the best decision, in retrospect.
 

Chester1

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I don't know how true the article is, but if true it does rather take the heat off of us for a bit.

Lets fill our boots before our European allies realise that they ought to be getting on with it.

Its true. The are tons of articles on this from a range of different newspapers and broadcasters. There is huge skepticism on the continent towards AZ vaccine. A friend in Germany is getting bumped up the queue because she is happy to have AZ and there aren't sufficient takers. Its gobsmacking.
 

HSTEd

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Many countries elected to prohibit vaccination of over 65s with it, as their interpretation of the data was that it was not clear if it was effective enough in that age group.

Of course it turns out that it is. Doesn’t look like the best decision, in retrospect.
The really silly thing is that they then didn't use the vaccines for anyone else that they were approved for. So they just sit on the shelf.

At which point it seems even stupider than just giving them to people, and noting them down so they can be hit again with another vaccine later when one is available.
 

LAX54

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Its true. The are tons of articles on this from a range of different newspapers and broadcasters. There is huge skepticism on the continent towards AZ vaccine. A friend in Germany is getting bumped up the queue because she is happy to have AZ and there aren't sufficient takers. Its gobsmacking.
I think it's been on quite a few media outlets, CNN, RT, BBC, even RTL, at one point they were giving the vaccine to the Homeless, whatever the age just to use it up !
and the EU had the audacity to have a pop at the UK for not providing them with the AZ vaccine !
UK is almost 30% at least 1 jab, the USA 15%, (which must be on a par with the UK population wise) then the EU France 4.2% Belgium 4% Germany 4.5% Israel out in the lead 53%
 
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Simon11

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A further 104 people have died with coronavirus in the UK, the government's daily figures show.

This takes the number of deaths within 28 days of a positive test to 122,953.

There were also 5,455 new infections recorded in the last 24 hours.

On Monday of last week, there were 178 deaths and 10,641 positive cases reported.

From BBC just now, great to see continued reductions in rates!
 

TPO

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I think one of the thing we need to stop being so fixated on is this "being spreaders" thing. We have always been spreaders, we are literally walking virus factories with billions of little sacks of protein just there for any passing virus to exploit. What is important, and finally seems to have been recognised by the government is giving people treatment & vaccines to help them not become seriously ill.

In terms of vaccine prioritisation, I hate to say this but the undignified scramble and indignation from some sectors about not being prioritised kinds of negates all the supposed altruism that so many people were engaged in last year. Then they couldn't wait to tell you they were saving others, but throw a vaccine into the mix and it's "but I need it more". Everyone should wait their turn, let's get the vaccine out to those who need it most. Then those that don't can choose to have it, or not.

Agree totally.

I am getting fed up with public sector workers (other than the front-line medics caring for COVID patients) who think they've had it difficult during the pandemic. Yes, their job may have been more difficult- but at least they have (a) a secure job (b) a pension (c) are paid if they need to self-isolate.

There's plenty of zero-hours/casual workers who don't have those luxuries, who cannot afford to self-isolate yet are at risk. Delivery (white van) persons mainly but also some casual food/distribution industry workers, taxi drivers. On the basis of preventing harm, there's a much stronger argument IMO to prioritise such casual workers over teachers and the like.

Pragmatically- let's just keep rolling out by age and get EVERYONE* vaccinated in age order- the KISS approach to risk minimisation and the fastest road to protection.

Otherwise those who are at the bottom of the income/conditions heap (unlike teachers et al with their sharp middle-class elbows) will once again be carrying the heaviest share of the load.

TPO


*those who wish to, I don't support mandating the vaccine
 

jumble

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Just received my invite from GP to make an appointment for Vaccine 60+
 

DorkingMain

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Agree totally.

I am getting fed up with public sector workers (other than the front-line medics caring for COVID patients) who think they've had it difficult during the pandemic. Yes, their job may have been more difficult- but at least they have (a) a secure job (b) a pension (c) are paid if they need to self-isolate.

There's plenty of zero-hours/casual workers who don't have those luxuries, who cannot afford to self-isolate yet are at risk. Delivery (white van) persons mainly but also some casual food/distribution industry workers, taxi drivers. On the basis of preventing harm, there's a much stronger argument IMO to prioritise such casual workers over teachers and the like.

Pragmatically- let's just keep rolling out by age and get EVERYONE* vaccinated in age order- the KISS approach to risk minimisation and the fastest road to protection.

Otherwise those who are at the bottom of the income/conditions heap (unlike teachers et al with their sharp middle-class elbows) will once again be carrying the heaviest share of the load.

TPO


*those who wish to, I don't support mandating the vaccine
Generally not one to agree with the "just be thankful with what you have" attitude - there is a stark contrast between the experience of those who were put on furlough, or were able to retreat to their home office, vs. those working in supermarkets, transport, policing etc. who have been put at a high risk of getting COVID. It's exposed some sharp divides between the middle-classes who work in offices and those who are "essential workers" and I don't think the obviousness of those divides is going to disappear. We were sold this lockdown on the basis that "COVID is deadly to everyone, of all ages, and all health conditions" but were then arbitrarily split into "essential workers" and not, with a stark benefit to being on the non-essential side.

I think vaccination for certain groups working with the public would make sense if there wasn't an obvious logistical disadvantage to trying to do so - I get the feeling the issue is primarily that it's very hard to define an essential worker, who is and isn't one and to try and invite people for vaccinations on that basis. Healthcare workers are an easy thing to define, but what happens when you start trying to decide who works in essential retail, transport, distribution, etc. I definitely think 50+ / people with underlying health conditions makes sense, but the risk to under 50s from COVID is low anyway and therefore priority ordering that group would make sense if it was reasonable to do so.

I do agree about this whole idea of "spreaders" and treating everyone like they're a risk that constantly has to prove they aren't. Nobody should be made to feel guilty about the fact they've picked up a virus and are carrying about without knowing. Yet we're constantly warned about how we could be asymptomatic and at risk of killing someone, thus we should be tested constantly to prove we aren't.
 
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Domh245

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PHE (preprint) study on the vaccines so far has been released:

Today Public Health England (PHE) has submitted a pre-print of a real-world study that shows that both the Pfizer and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines are highly effective in reducing COVID-19 infections among older people aged 70 years and over. Since January, protection against symptomatic COVID, 4 weeks after the first dose, ranged between 57 and 61% for one dose of Pfizer and between 60 and 73% for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.

The pre-print article:

  • compares the rate of vaccination in symptomatic people aged over 70 years of age who test positive for COVID-19, compared to those who test negative
  • compares the rate of hospitalisation in confirmed COVID-19 cases aged over 80 who were vaccinated more than 14 days before testing positive, compared to unvaccinated cases
  • compares the rate of deaths in confirmed COVID-19 cases aged over 80 who were vaccinated with Pfizer vaccine more than 14 days before testing positive, compared to unvaccinated cases
In the over 80s, data suggest that a single dose of either vaccine is more than 80% effective at preventing hospitalisation, around 3 to 4 weeks after the jab. There is also evidence for the Pfizer vaccine, which suggests it leads to an 83% reduction in deaths from COVID-19.

The data also shows symptomatic infections in over 70s decreasing from around 3 weeks after one dose of both vaccines.

The new analysis adds to growing evidence that the vaccines are working and are highly effective in protecting people against severe illness, hospitalisation and death.

Dr Mary Ramsay, PHE Head of Immunisation, said:

“This adds to growing evidence showing that the vaccines are working to reduce infections and save lives.

“While there remains much more data to follow, this is encouraging and we are increasingly confident that vaccines are making a real difference.

“It is important to remember that protection is not complete and we don’t yet know how much these vaccines will reduce the risk of you passing COVID-19 onto others.

“Even if you have been vaccinated, it is it is really important that you continue to act like you have the virus, practise good hand hygiene and stay at home.

From this week, the NHS has started to deliver second doses to those people vaccinated first, which will provide higher and longer lasting protection.

Separate studies in healthcare workers show that one dose of the vaccine is preventing people from catching asymptomatic COVID-19 by at least 70%. This will help to reduce the spread of infection in hospitals and care homes, ultimately offering more protection to these vulnerable populations.

I can also see now why the models that Warwick & co were still predicting a moderate numbers of deaths and squeeze on hospital capacity, though I still tend towards thinking they were generally too pessimistic

Combined with the effect against symptomatic disease, this indicates that a single dose of either vaccine is approximately 80% effective at preventing hospitalisation and a single dose of BNT162b2 (Pfizer) is 85% effective at preventing death with COVID-19.
 

yorkie

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Good to see more data confirm what I've been hearing for many months now, that the vaccines are highly effective.

Macron and the other doubters are being proven wrong!

(The main doubters I do battle with are not actually the anti-vax idiots, who appear to be mostly invisible these days, but deluded "zero-covid" strategy lobbyists or sad people who hate the idea that a vaccine in Oxford, England could be any good!)
 

Bald Rick

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PHE (preprint) study on the vaccines so far has been released:



I can also see now why the models that Warwick & co were still predicting a moderate numbers of deaths and squeeze on hospital capacity, though I still tend towards thinking they were generally too pessimistic

Great to see this, and very encouraging.

Having done a (very) quick read it does confirm that it takes 3-4 weeks for the vaccine first dose to become fully effective. Given it takes at least a further two weeks for the illness to develop and result in hospital cases that helps to explain why the reductions in hospital cases and deaths are only recently beginning to beat the exponential decay rate. 6 weeks ago, we had only vaccinated 4m people and were still a couple of weeks away from a rate of 400k per day. In another 4 weeks time the vaccine will be effective in all the most vulnerable (well, about 80% of them); by then we should be seeing a very significant reduction in hospital cases and deaths should be under 50/day and still falling.
 

Domh245

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In another 4 weeks time the vaccine will be effective in all the most vulnerable (well, about 80% of them)

Effective in 80% of those who had it! Though granted uptake has been remarkably high (on average) in the most vulnerable groups
 

Bayum

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The ulterior motive for most people is that it's still seen as the route out of the restrictions, out of having to read depressing numbers, and back into a world where people can build a life. Notwithstanding some tiresome backsliding from government and scientists around elimination, vaccines will free us. For anybody who's getting offered the vaccine for the next month at least it's also almost certainly worth it to reduce personal risk.

I think the restrictions are over a massive over-the-top imposition, the threat from the disease has been overstated, and the vaccines didn't undergo as much testing as I might have liked. The fact of the matter though is that they've now been under a truly massive field test for 3 months now though with highly vulnerable patients. There have been vanishingly few ill effects and they've been more effective than we could have hoped.

Even if you hate the BBC for their coverage of the virus, don't bite your nose off to spite your face. Take the vaccine
The threat of the disease has been overstated, yet the NHS has been wrestled to the ground twice in a nine month period. Yes. Big overstatement.

Effective in 80% of those who had it! Though granted uptake has been remarkably high (on average) in the most vulnerable groups
I did have to laugh to myself when Hancock mentioned the sudden decrease in the number of hospitalisation and deaths in the over 70’s - vaccine, or just the healthiest 70+ year olds that have beaten it off or lived as hermits for the last year.

Otherwise those who are at the bottom of the income/conditions heap (unlike teachers et al with their sharp middle-class elbows) will once again be carrying the heaviest share of the load.

TPO


*those who wish to, I don't support mandating the vaccine
Come spend a day in my school. You’ll see me and my colleagues with our very rounded, non-middle class elbows hard at work.

In the papers today...80% (Eighty percent) of the AZ vaccine in Mainland Europe is unused ! seems they do not trust the AZ vaccine, yet all that fuss they made about the UK not letting them have their fair share !
Eeee. I’d fly over and get my second jab in three weeks time. Might fly over again and get a third if they stay unused!
 
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DB

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The threat of the disease has been overstated, yet the NHS has been wrestled to the ground twice in a nine month period. Yes. Big overstatement.

That just demonstrates that the NHS is severely under-capacity. It has this sort of crisis every time there's a bad flu year.

THe fact that the chances of dying from this disease are similar to the chances of anyone dying in any given year (taking their age and health into account) does pretty strongly indicate that it has been severely over-stated. This is especially do with people under 50 - the impression the government has tried to give is that it's a severe risk to everyone, when in actual fact it's very elderly people, especially those in poor health, who are particularly at risk.
 

philosopher

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Good to see more data confirm what I've been hearing for many months now, that the vaccines are highly effective.

Macron and the other doubters are being proven wrong!

(The main doubters I do battle with are not actually the anti-vax idiots, who appear to be mostly invisible these days, but deluded "zero-covid" strategy lobbyists or sad people who hate the idea that a vaccine in Oxford, England could be any good!)
There has been quite a bit of petty nationalism regarding the vaccines! To me so long as the vaccine does its job and prevents people getting ill and going hospital, why should it matter which country developed it.
 

Domh245

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I did have to laugh to myself when Hancock mentioned the sudden decrease in the number of hospitalisation and deaths in the over 70’s - vaccine, or just the healthiest 70+ year olds that have beaten it off or lived as hermits for the last year.

It's the vaccine. The efficacy numbers that PHE arrived at for the vaccines was by comparing positive cases amongst the vaccinated and unvaccinated. Similarly, given the (still) relatively small numbers of people infected by Covid, and the way in which hospitalisations and deaths have only dropped off as drastically as they have in the primarily vaccinated age groups, it's difficult to draw any conclusion other than "it's the vaccine" - certainly far more likely than covid running out of 'vulnerable' 70+s that haven't ventured out all year

Eeee. I’d fly over and get my second jab in three weeks time.

If you had AZ - you definitely don't want the second jab after three weeks, the longer the gap between doses, the better the efficacy it increasingly seems!

That just demonstrates that the NHS is severely under-capacity. It has this sort of crisis every time there's a bad flu year.

See I'm really not sure it does. Admittedly I've only looked at ICU capacity in any sort of depth, but most years (even the bad ones) we manage just fine with the capacity we have. It'd be nice if we had more, naturally, but we don't routinely see capacity limits being neared, and at worst we see some surgeries cancelled for a couple of weeks in January/February. This year we've been above normal winter ICU occupancy since at least November, and have had far more surgery cancelled for a far longer period than usual (which'll come back to haunt us I'm sure) as well. A health service that has the capacity to deal with years like this regularly would be comically oversized 99% of the time and would soon find itself cut back to sensible levels.

The "NHS in crisis" stories of old really really do look "boy who cried wolf" at this point, though that isn't to say the NHS wasn't stretched before - just this year they've redefined what it means to be stretched!(/responded brilliantly to the immediate crisis but at what longer term cost both for patients who had things deferred, and staff wellbeing)
 

DB

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See I'm really not sure it does. Admittedly I've only looked at ICU capacity in any sort of depth, but most years (even the bad ones) we manage just fine with the capacity we have. It'd be nice if we had more, naturally, but we don't routinely see capacity limits being neared, and at worst we see some surgeries cancelled for a couple of weeks in January/February. This year we've been above normal winter ICU occupancy since at least November, and have had far more surgery cancelled for a far longer period than usual (which'll come back to haunt us I'm sure) as well. A health service that has the capacity to deal with years like this regularly would be comically oversized 99% of the time and would soon find itself cut back to sensible levels.

The "NHS in crisis" stories of old really really do look "boy who cried wolf" at this point, though that isn't to say the NHS wasn't stretched before - just this year they've redefined what it means to be stretched!(/responded brilliantly to the immediate crisis but at what longer term cost both for patients who had things deferred, and staff wellbeing)

Compared to many other European countries, our spending on health and number of hospital places per head of population is very much on the low side.

Something like this was always going to happen sooner or later - it could just as easily have been a particularly bad strain of flu for which that year's vaccines weren't very effective. The increase in average life expectancy over the past decade or two, and in particular the number of people in very poor health who are living longer, was always going to mean that when such a virus did come along the effect would be amplified.
 

hwl

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Good to see more data confirm what I've been hearing for many months now, that the vaccines are highly effective.

Macron and the other doubters are being proven wrong!

(The main doubters I do battle with are not actually the anti-vax idiots, who appear to be mostly invisible these days, but deluded "zero-covid" strategy lobbyists or sad people who hate the idea that a vaccine in Oxford, England could be any good!)
I suspect some of the negative lobbying is coming from the vast army of Pharma industry consultants (many Americans staff / US firms) who have got a lot of advisory work out of most of the 10-15 leading vaccines / candidates (including manufacturing plant set up) with the exception of Oxford/AZ, Sputnik, SinoVac. Hence they are a bit miffed that the highest production vaccine will see no profits, many were probably that there would be few successful vaccines and they might get a lot of follow on fees if they were involved with a successful vaccine.

AZ was until today the largest external shareholder in Moderna and sold out at a 320% profit!

See I'm really not sure it does. Admittedly I've only looked at ICU capacity in any sort of depth, but most years (even the bad ones) we manage just fine with the capacity we have. It'd be nice if we had more, naturally, but we don't routinely see capacity limits being neared, and at worst we see some surgeries cancelled for a couple of weeks in January/February. This year we've been above normal winter ICU occupancy since at least November, and have had far more surgery cancelled for a far longer period than usual (which'll come back to haunt us I'm sure) as well. A health service that has the capacity to deal with years like this regularly would be comically oversized 99% of the time and would soon find itself cut back to sensible levels.

The "NHS in crisis" stories of old really really do look "boy who cried wolf" at this point, though that isn't to say the NHS wasn't stretched before - just this year they've redefined what it means to be stretched!(/responded brilliantly to the immediate crisis but at what longer term cost both for patients who had things deferred, and staff wellbeing)
While there might theoretically be more ICU beds per capita in Germany etc. the staffing levels aren't there for the extra beds many are focussed around post operation recovery and the beds have a far lower utilisation rate.
 
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Bertie the bus

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There has been quite a bit of petty nationalism regarding the vaccines! To me so long as the vaccine does its job and prevents people getting ill and going hospital, why should it matter which country developed it.
I’m not sure Macron’s comments had anything to do with the origin of the vaccine but were more trying to take the sheen off Britain’s vaccination programme. He was coming under a lot of pressure at the time for France’s pitiful vaccination programme and I suspect he was mainly trying to make the point Britain might be far ahead in vaccination numbers but that is because they are using an inferior vaccine, ergo France is doing better. Either way his comments were monumentally stupid when the French are fairly sceptical towards vaccines anyway and he now looks even more stupid because they have today changed their policy and are using the AZ vaccine on the over 65s.
 

HSTEd

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I’m not sure Macron’s comments had anything to do with the origin of the vaccine but were more trying to take the sheen off Britain’s vaccination programme. He was coming under a lot of pressure at the time for France’s pitiful vaccination programme and I suspect he was mainly trying to make the point Britain might be far ahead in vaccination numbers but that is because they are using an inferior vaccine, ergo France is doing better. Either way his comments were monumentally stupid when the French are fairly sceptical towards vaccines anyway and he now looks even more stupid because they have today changed their policy and are using the AZ vaccine on the over 65s.
A cynic might suggest that certain people in European politics, especially super pro EU people like Macron, are desperate for the UK programme to be a disaster.

The EU programme is not going well, and the performance of the US/UK ones is a major embarassment, especially the latter.
 
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Chester1

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There is also the cynical viewpoint that certain people in European politics, especially super pro EU people like Macron, are desperate for the UK programme to be a disaster.

The EU programme is not going well, and the performance of the US/UK ones is a major embarassment, especially the latter.

US is sufficiently distanced and different that EU Citizens won't be angry. Its comparison with the UK that is doing political damage. As a neighbour and ex member of the EU we are used for comparison and people are asking why the EU roll out is much slower. The roll out in several EU member states has been extremely poor compared with other EU members. Its not just procurement that has gone wrong in some countries.

There will be few if any countries that are going to come out of this looking good. Countries seem to be taking turns to screw up.
 

YorkshireBear

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US is sufficiently distanced and different that EU Citizens won't be angry. Its comparison with the UK that is doing political damage. As a neighbour and ex member of the EU we are used for comparison and people are asking why the EU roll out is much slower. The roll out in several EU member states has been extremely poor compared with other EU members. Its not just procurement that has gone wrong in some countries.

There will be few if any countries that are going to come out of this looking good. Countries seem to be taking turns to screw up.
Indeed. Not sure any country comes out well tbh. Not in Europe anyway, all have royally screwed one aspect or more up.

Possibly shows how difficult it is to manage...

Good to see the data back the AZ vaccine. And it appears from what I'm reading that AZ production rates continue to rise? Not heard of how succesfyiul the Pfizer attempt has been.
 

LAX54

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The threat of the disease has been overstated, yet the NHS has been wrestled to the ground twice in a nine month period. Yes. Big overstatement.







Eeee. I’d fly over and get my second jab in three weeks time. Might fly over again and get a third if they stay unused!

Me too, might not fly...drive over and fill arm up with vaccine...... and then fill up with duty free on the way back.....double worthwhile trip ! :) :)
 
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