Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

[Yew]

Government 7 day average shows a ~35% increase and a ~50% increase over the 7 day average 14 days ago.

What that's something to monitor and people may be advised to be cautious and definitely encouraged to get vaccinated as soon as they can, that's very different to needing to be fearful.

We always knew there would be a slight rise in cases after opening up, there is no reason to worry.

 

[adc82140]

My bank account is rising exponentially with a compound interest rate of 0.2%. This is a true exponential rise, but I'm not going to be a millionaire by the end of the year. The word "exponential" is chucked about to scare people who don't understand it's true meaning. You never heard about "exponential drops" when cases were falling. They were always "diminishing slowly"

 

[Bantamzen]

There's a simple reason we need restrictions now, and could conceivably retain them till late summer - hospitalisations.

The NHS backlog is already vast and hospitals are under strain from people who delayed seeking treatment. With cases growing exponentially - doubling every two weeks - and 5% hospitalised we could see 1000 admissions daily as soon as early July if things don't improve.

The NHS backlog was vast before the pandemic. It has got larger, but you're kidding yourself if you think that backlogs are a good reason to continue restrictions. To put it bluntly, it is the job of the NHS to manage the backlogs, not the rest of society. The backlogs will not clear in months, it will takes years and there is no way we can continue this way for as long as it will take.

Now it is true that the NHS needs more support, and this is the job of the government. Instead of spending billions propping up restrictions & mass testing they should be diverting these funds to building capacity for the future. But that won't happen if millions of people are not paying taxes whilst be made to stay at home instead of earning their living.

 

[Butts]

Has anyone else in Scotland applied for a paper copy of their Vaccination Status after their 2nd Jab.

If so how long did it take ?

Says up to 21 Days - need mine for a trip to Jersey early July.

 

[takno]

We've also discovered today that the new variant may be 2.6x more likely to put someone in hospital than the Kent variant.

We've "discovered" that controlling for demographics people are more likely to visit hospital with the new variant. The controlling for demographics bit is important here, because we're predicting the pressure on the NHS at a point where the vaccine programme is effectively transforming the demographics of the disease. Basically controlling for demographics here is the wrong thing to do, unless you are deliberately trying to cause a panic.

The younger people who are getting the disease now were a *lot* more than 2.6x less likely to visit hospital than the population average in January. That's fundamentally why the numbers in the earlier table show a *lower* proportion of people with the Delta variant attending A&E than with the alpha variant. More importantly, a *lower* proportion of people with the Delta variant are actually being admitted to hospital after their A&E visit.

Fundamentally, in normal times people often take sick kids to hospital. They did that a lot less when there was a big old pandemic on and nobody was going to be able to see them. The fact that they are attending A&E now even though they probably don't need to is a sign of growing confidence in the NHS, not a massive problem just around the corner

 

[Crossover]

This is not true and cannot happen.

The NHS app does not tell you to self isolate because of check in's. Only the contact tracing function has this capability.

The venue check in function only sends a warning message you have been at an a venue with covid cases. I had one a few weeks ago which advised me to be tested if I show symptoms and avoid contact with the vulnerable.

Did not cause me any hardship.

Interesting - I wasn't aware of this. Do you have a source of this (genuine question - the whole T&T thing seems like a bit of a dark art!)

Vaccines work... but only in the people vaccinated! Millions upon millions of people who could get ill enough to need hospital care remain totally unvaccinated, and even one dose isn't enough with this variant sadly.

On the flip side, just because someone isn't vaccinated doesn't guarantee being very unwell. I had Covid back in April, I was unvaccinated and didn't suffer particularly badly from it. I am now first dose vaccinated (be it only a week ago, so protection will still be building) and I am relatively young in my early 30s, the level we are now at in calling people forward. We have to start living with this and regaining our lives and livelihoods after the best part of 18 months of chaos

 

[nlogax]

More importantly, a *lower* proportion of people with the Delta variant are actually being admitted to hospital after their A&E visit.

This is hugely important, right here. Amongst the media chaff, piece of hard fact like this are hard to find. As I understand it durations of hospital stays with this new variant are also reduced. Presumably due to the less serious nature of symptoms.

 

[Chris125]

On the flip side, just because someone isn't vaccinated doesn't guarantee being very unwell.

It's simple maths unfortunately - a small percentage of cases still require hospitalisation (less severe thankfully) and with enough cases that small percentage is still big enough to be a problem for the NHS. A manageable 'exit wave' when we lifted restrictions was long predicted, faded away when vaccines performed better than originally assumed, but a variant with extra transmission and a small degree of vaccine escape brings that back into play.

I'd suggest this thread by James Ward whose own modelling has generally been more optimistic than the governments - he's not as disheartened as many and points out some good news from yesterday, but nevertheless:

...my guess is that, barring some unexpected data from PHE next week, the plausible range of outcomes will still include both a small exit wave, as per @andrew_lilico’s model yesterday (note this was before the new data on Delta) and a much more severe wave, threatening NHS capacity, and with much higher rates of hospitalisation and death (e.g. as per my second scenario above).

Based on previous form, it is likely that the SPI-M [government] models will lean towards the latter outcome. And that will leave us with a very tough call: whether to proceed as is, delay to September to get more second doses in, or take a short delay to gather more data (it’s unlikely to stop the wave). I’ll let you know my thoughts on this as they evolve.

 

[Darandio]

...my guess is that, barring some unexpected data from PHE next week, the plausible range of outcomes will still include both a small exit wave, as per @andrew_lilico’s model yesterday (note this was before the new data on Delta) and a much more severe wave, threatening NHS capacity, and with much higher rates of hospitalisation and death (e.g. as per my second scenario above).

Can someone ask Mathemetician James about last summer. From what I recall things were much more open than they are now and people were still travelling to just about every country on the planet. Masks (although effectively useless) weren't worn initially and people had a few months of getting on with their lives. Oh, there were no vaccines either.

Where was the severe wave that threatened NHS capacity?

 

[Hawkwood Junc]

The blithe - "delay until September" comment without clarifcation as to what that hopes to achieve just demonstrates how lightly so many of the modellers/scientists etc seem to be taking the continued restrictions. Just an impactless 3 month delay. No problem! A whole season down the pan again...

 

[roversfan2001]

I came to the conclusion a while ago that anyone who wants restrictions to continue has something to gain from them. All this dodgy modelling and what-ifs doesn't change this.

 

[big_rig]

Can someone ask Mathemetician James about last summer. From what I recall things were much more open than they are now and people were still travelling to just about every country on the planet. Masks (although effectively useless) weren't worn initially and people had a few months of getting on with their lives. Oh, there were no vaccines either.

Where was the severe wave that threatened NHS capacity?

Ah, but it's different this summer, because umm waves, variants, Mathematician James doesn't want to lose his Twitter follows..sorry, did I say that last bit out loud?

 

[Freightmaster]

I came to the conclusion a while ago that anyone who wants restrictions to continue has something to gain from them.

...or nothing to lose!




MARK

 

[Bantamzen]

It's simple maths unfortunately - a small percentage of cases still require hospitalisation (less severe thankfully) and with enough cases that small percentage is still big enough to be a problem for the NHS. A manageable 'exit wave' when we lifted restrictions was long predicted, faded away when vaccines performed better than originally assumed, but a variant with extra transmission and a small degree of vaccine escape brings that back into play.

I'd suggest this thread by James Ward whose own modelling has generally been more optimistic than the governments - he's not as disheartened as many and points out some good news from yesterday, but nevertheless:

...my guess is that, barring some unexpected data from PHE next week, the plausible range of outcomes will still include both a small exit wave, as per @andrew_lilico’s model yesterday (note this was before the new data on Delta) and a much more severe wave, threatening NHS capacity, and with much higher rates of hospitalisation and death (e.g. as per my second scenario above).

Based on previous form, it is likely that the SPI-M [government] models will lean towards the latter outcome. And that will leave us with a very tough call: whether to proceed as is, delay to September to get more second doses in, or take a short delay to gather more data (it’s unlikely to stop the wave). I’ll let you know my thoughts on this as they evolve.

"Based on previous form"? What previous form? Has there been a previous vaccine for the virus that he can model against? If not then its simply guesswork.

I came to the conclusion a while ago that anyone who wants restrictions to continue has something to gain from them. All this dodgy modelling and what-ifs doesn't change this.

A reasonable conclusion too. It seems every time we get close to any form of relaxation, the experts swarm all over the media foretelling doom and despair. One can't help but wonder what other motives they have.

 

[takno]

It's simple maths unfortunately - a small percentage of cases still require hospitalisation (less severe thankfully) and with enough cases that small percentage is still big enough to be a problem for the NHS. A manageable 'exit wave' when we lifted restrictions was long predicted, faded away when vaccines performed better than originally assumed, but a variant with extra transmission and a small degree of vaccine escape brings that back into play.

It's not simple maths. It's weaponised maths being used to build dodgy models on utterly invalid foundations. There appears to be a growing trend to take some poorly thought through statistical observations, layer over some half-arsed mathematical "modelling" to come up with totally meaningless conclusions, and then pretend that the simplicity of the second layer of "maths" somehow makes up for the completely inadequate and often mendacious foundations.

This is perfectly illustrated by the fact that you are still calling these hospital "admissions", when the dramatic stats were actually for A&E attendance, with a decreasing proportion of the attendances actually being admitted.

 

[Silver Cobra]

Breaking news just now: the Pfizer vaccine has now been approved for use on 12-15 year-olds in the UK.

UK approves Pfizer jab for 12 to 15-year-olds

The UK regulator says the vaccine is safe and effective and the benefits outweigh risks in this age group.

www.bbc.co.uk

The UK has approved the use of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in children aged 12-15, saying it is safe and effective in this age group and the benefits outweigh the risks.

The MHRA said it had carried out a "rigorous review" of the vaccine in adolescents.

The UK's vaccines committee will now decide whether children should get the jab.

The Pfizer vaccine is already approved for use in people aged 16 and over.

Dr June Raine, chief executive of the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) said the safety of the vaccine in 12-15 year olds would be carefully monitored.

"No extension to an authorisation would be approved unless the expected standards of safety, quality and effectiveness have been met," she said.

The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) must now advise government on whether this age group should be vaccinated as part of the UK rollout.

 

[Darandio]

Breaking news just now: the Pfizer vaccine has now been approved for use on 12-15 year-olds in the UK.

Let the guilt tripping of parents commence.

 

[Chris125]

"Based on previous form"? What previous form? Has there been a previous vaccine for the virus that he can model against? If not then its simply guesswork.

The previous form of SPI-M - he's referring to the modelling provided to the government, whose assumptions and outcomes have been relatively pessimistic compared to his own.

We could get a small manageable wave of new cases, or a big wave, but history suggests their modelling will err towards the latter.

Can someone ask Mathemetician James about last summer. From what I recall things were much more open than they are now and people were still travelling to just about every country on the planet. Masks (although effectively useless) weren't worn initially and people had a few months of getting on with their lives. Oh, there were no vaccines either.

That was the original strain, it was replaced over Christmas by a variant around 50% more transmissible.

Now another variant has taken over, which current data suggests is 50% more transmissible than the previous one.

Things have moved on a bit!

 

[roversfan2001]

That was the original strain, it was replaced over Christmas by a variant around 50% more transmissible.

Now another variant has taken over, which current data suggests is 50% more transmissible than the previous one.

Things have moved on a bit!

That's all well and good, but remind me how many people had been vaccinated last summer.

 

[Domh245]

Things have moved on a bit!

Indeed - some 60% of the population has had a vaccine, and around 40% have had both doses and can be assumed to have full immunity (or at least, as good as it'll get) - a significant improvement over last year......

Let the guilt tripping of parents commence.

I doubt there'll be much guilt tripping of parents in this age group until 2022 to be honest - our very limited Pfizer supply has got a lot of work to do, between providing the bulk of the doses for under 40s, and now all teenagers as well. Somewhere in that there'll also expecting to start giving it out again as an autumn booster, so it'd be surprising if they're in a position to start offering it (at large) to that age group any time soon

 

[Darandio]

Things have moved on a bit.

Indeed things have. We have a range of excellent vaccines that have broken the link between infection and death with many of those admitted to hospital being younger and not needing critical care. A far better situation than last summer.

 

[Bantamzen]

The previous form of SPI-M - he's referring to the modelling provided to the government, whose assumptions and outcomes have been relatively pessimistic compared to his own.

We could get a small manageable wave of new cases, or a big wave, but history suggests their modelling will err towards the latter.



That was the original strain, it was replaced over Christmas by a variant around 50% more transmissible.

Now another variant has taken over, which current data suggests is 50% more transmissible than the previous one.

Things have moved on a bit!

May be more transmissible. But even if it is, so long as vaccines are effective in reducing the risk of serious illness, so what? We are not pursuing an elimination strategy here, most accept that the virus is / will become endemic so as long as there are not huge numbers of hospitalisations we have no need for restrictions. And thus far the evidence shows that the vaccines seem to be very effective.

 

[Darandio]

I doubt there'll be much guilt tripping of parents in this age group until 2022 to be honest - our very limited Pfizer supply has got a lot of work to do, between providing the bulk of the doses for under 40s, and now all teenagers as well. Somewhere in that there'll also expecting to start giving it out again as an autumn booster, so it'd be surprising if they're in a position to start offering it (at large) to that age group any time soon

That depends if anyone dares to say they won't allow their children to have it. Obviously it's already happened on the comments for the BBC article and widely on Twitter with all of the nonsense being soaked up by the gullible.

• You shouldn't (aren't fit to) have children.
• It's no different than the vaccines you already allowed your kids to have.
• Kids having it will stop mutations.
• Kids won't kill nana.

 

[HSTEd]

There aren't going to be many Pfizer doses around to give if takeup of the vaccine remains high

There are just enough assuming AZ is largely topped out and uptake in the adult population stays at 90%.

If it goes higher, there definitely won't be enough, and we would have to wait for Moderna to arrive in any case to complete the programme, and its coming ludicrously slowly.

 

[Chris125]

That's all well and good, but remind me how many people had been vaccinated last summer.

That's the difference between us and India.

UK: risk of a short-term wave of infections with enough hospitalisations to put excessive stress on the NHS, but very little death and serious illness.

India: a surreal, almost impossible explosion of infections that collapsed their healthcare system.

We are incredibly lucky to live in a country where so many are already protected and our primary concern is too many people visiting A&E in the next few months while we finish the job.

...so as long as there are not huge numbers of hospitalisations we have no need for restrictions. And thus far the evidence shows that the vaccines seem to be very effective.

...and that's what the modelling suggests could happen, hence the concern. This is nothing to do with zero-covid nor does it suggest the vaccines aren't very effective, it's just maths.

Millions of unvaccinated + millions more with only one dose + an incredibly transmissible variant = a wave of new cases, a small percentage of which end up in hospital if only briefly.

That's perfectly fine when it's 5000 cases a day, but the current trend suggests a doubling every two weeks - that will hopefully slow, but until we vaccinate enough people to compensate later in the summer it's a genuine concern.

 

[The Ham]

That depends if anyone dares to say they won't allow their children to have it. Obviously it's already happened on the comments for the BBC article and widely on Twitter with all of the nonsense being soaked up by the gullible.

• You shouldn't (aren't fit to) have children.
• It's no different than the vaccines you already allowed your kids to have.
• Kids having it will stop mutations.
• Kids won't kill nana.

Given the high uptake of vaccines by most adults in each cohort eligible for it is likely that (once the next step in allowing it to be delivered, as whilst it's approved for possible use, no approval for actual use has been given) the number of children in the 12-15 aged group not getting it is likely to be relatively low.

However the more age groups that can be given it, the less impact those not having it will have on future infection rates.

 

[Ediswan]

India: a surreal, almost impossible explosion of infections that collapsed their healthcare system.

Nothing surreal about it. The peak per-100k infection rate in India was considerably lower than the UK's peak. It is the size of population in India that made for very high absolute numbers, which the healthcare system was unable to handle.

 

[roversfan2001]

That's the difference between this variant here, and it's track record in India.

UK: risk of a short-term wave of infections with enough hospitalisations to put excessive stress on the NHS, but very little death and serious illness.

India: a surreal, almost impossible explosion of infections that collapsed their healthcare system.

We are incredibly lucky to live in a country where so many are already protected and our primary concern is too many people visiting A&E in the next few months while we finish the job.



...and that's what the modelling suggests could happen, hence the concern. This is nothing to do with zero-covid nor does it suggest the vaccines aren't very effective, it's just maths.

Millions of unvaccinated + millions more with only one dose + an incredibly transmissible variant = a wave of new cases, a small percentage of which end up in hospital if only briefly.

That's perfectly fine when it's 5000 cases a day, but the current trend suggests a doubling every two weeks - that will hopefully slow, but until we vaccinate enough people to compensate later in the summer it's a genuine concern.

Oliver Johnson finishes his stream of scaremongering bovine extrement by telling us he's based his predictions on the Delta variant being 100% more transmissible, which is the upper bound of the estimate given. Given the track record of estimates being revised down rather than up, it's safe to file that under 'will not happen' and carry on with reopening.

 

[adc82140]

I'd be curious to know how many of the people who scream on Twitter that they are not having a vaccine then go on to make an appointment as soon as they get the text. There is a lot of bullplop on Twitter, and I reckon this is no exception.

 

[Bertie the bus]

That's the difference between us and India.

UK: risk of a short-term wave of infections with enough hospitalisations to put excessive stress on the NHS, but very little death and serious illness.

How will something that will result in very little serious illness put excessive strain on the NHS?