bramling
Veteran Member
Now that we've seen a pandemic response like no pandemic in history, where our social lives have ground to a halt, large parts of the economy are shut down, along with international travel and more, I was recently thinking the above question in regard to the immediate onset of a new virus/pathogen. The specific focus here I'm getting at is not the overall response throughout the duration of the pandemic, but only the period where a pandemic takes off (say the equivalent of January-March 2020).
We already had panic buying as Covid took off, but lockdowns were not a concept initially. Now though we know they could theoretically be deployed again and all their consequences, I think the following actions might take place next time:
- Demand for international travel rockets, as overseas residents around the world rush to return home or be somewhere manageable in the event of border closures. There may also be a sudden surge in short term holidays in the hope of getting one in before they might be banned.
- Panic buying on an even bigger scale than last year.
- Social gatherings rapidly increase in number (and maybe size), for fear friends and family members won't be able to see each other for a long time. Related venues in hospitality, parks, beaches, etc. struggle to cope with numbers.
- Sectors of the economy believed to be secure in a pandemic (e.g. supermarkets, home working firms) see a rush of job applications/interest from those working in sectors at potential threat of closure/job losses (e.g. hospitality businesses).
In short I think there will be chaos, unless it can be proven before the next pandemic that much of what we did this time around is either ineffective/unnecessary/more harmful than good, with such evidence well communicated and put into future pandemic planning, while also building up healthcare capacity to improve resilience and ability to avoid getting overwhelmed.
This is my biggest worry about the whole thing.
Lockdown is now a “business as usual” political tool, and I think this genie is going to prove hard to put back in its bottle.
Furloughing has a lot to answer for, as it has insulated people from the real consequences of lockdowns. There’s no doubt in my mind that furloughing has been to generous, especially the amount of time it has gone on for. Again, a completely unaffordable policy has become “business as usual”, something we’re going to suffer consequences from for many years.
I'd hope that there's enough research being done (across the World), looking at rates of infection, effectiveness of precautions/restrictions, data as to how and where the virus is spread most easily etc., that we could avoid lockdowns and harsh restrictions for the future.
I.e. the overall effectiveness of severe border controls, as to whether temporarily closing borders (strictly) the moment a new pandemic looks possible, to give a few weeks to evaluate spread/severity etc., i.e. to keep it out to buy some time.
Or, if, say, research shows, say pubs/restaurants are where a high incidence of infection is spread, then hard closure of those establishments. The same could be said for all different types of events/workplaces/educational establishments, etc. Surely, the statistics/data must be available as to where it's been spreading the most by now?
Rather than knee jerk reactions of closing everything "non essential", there must be a better way of shutting down the places/activities where the highest rate of spread occurs, at least as the first line of defence.
As it was, it does seem that the "experts" just took the small pox manual off the shelf and thought that it would be good enough to stop Covid, i.e. 2 metres, washing hands, etc. There was a TV programme a few months ago (Indian Doctor I think) that had a small pox outbreak, set in the 1960s, and the things they were doing were almost identical to the first defence strategy of covid early in 2020. Things have progressed since the 1960s, i.e. explosion in foreign travel, far more local travel for commuting to work, goods moved more by road by vans/lorries etc., i.e. far more movement of people generally, yet, the experts seemed to think that washing hands and keeping 2 metres apart was going to solve the problem!
Well, yes, but realistically, I don't think any future pandemic will be handled the same way. I think we've now proved that widespread lockdowns etc doesn't really work in the long run as covid can't be eliminated. Even countries who closed their borders are suffering covid, as you can't keep borders closed, just like you can't keep harsh lockdowns for long.
For some yes, but I think maybe it's the squeezed middle who've been squeezed some more, especially small business/self employed. The working poor are quite likely to have been able to carry on working as normal (i.e. delivery drivers, shop workers, etc), or if furloughed, they've been able to get other work and earning a second wage on top of their furlough pay from the first job.
Then you have those earning over £50k, who've had their furlough limited to just £2,500 p.m. which is quite a drop in income. Not to mention self employed earning over £50k who were excluded from the SEISS covid support scheme.
I think the difficulty is that a lot of spread is happening in two particular settings - domestic and hospital. The former is impossible to control, the latter is politically awkward to admit and also seems to be proving hard to address.
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