What is the Covid-19 Exit Strategy of 'Zero Covid' countries such as Hong Kong?

[adc82140]

It may have worked if they'd not mucked up the vaccine deployment. If they were where we are now, they could throw open the borders and claim they had the most domestic freedom throughout.

 

[philosopher]

It may have worked if they'd not mucked up the vaccine deployment. If they were where we are now, they could throw open the borders and claim they had the most domestic freedom throughout.

Even with 70% or perhaps even 80% of their population vaccinated, I am still not sure their strategy would work as the Delta variant is too transmissible and evasive to get herd immunity. A highly vaccinated population would result in few deaths, but they would still get cases and domestic transmission once they opened borders.

Perhaps with the original and Alpha variants, zero covid through herd immunity bought on by vaccination was possible but now I do not think it is.

 

[brad465]

Over 5,000 active cases in NSW now, having gone up by over 300 on latest figures.

 

[johnnychips]

I am sure I read ages ago on a thread I can’t find, that as viruses progress they mutate to be more transmissible, but less deadly to ensure their survival. Obviously a dead host can’t transmit, unless you touch the body. No doubt @yorkie will be able to elucidate.

 

[Merseysider]

Over 5,000 active cases in NSW now, having gone up by over 300 on latest figures.

...yeeeeeah they’ve got no chance of zero covid now.

I wonder if they have a Plan B?

Spoiler

They don’t

 

[Pete_uk]

I read somewhere that it's costing something like a billion Australian Dollars a week to shut down. They are on a highway to nowhere.

 

[brad465]

If the Australia quarantine system wasn't harsh enough: if you're an Olympic Athlete some of them have to quarantine for 28 DAYS!

Tokyo 2020: Some Australian Olympians face 28-day quarantine

Some Australians Olympians are having to quarantine for 28 days after returning to their country from Tokyo

www.bbc.co.uk

Rules meaning some Australian Olympians are having to quarantine for 28 days after returning to their country from Tokyo have been described as "cruel".

Athletes returning via Sydney to the state of South Australia are facing an extra two-week quarantine.
That is on top of the two weeks already required for all overseas arrivals.

The AOC said: "While other countries are celebrating the return of their athletes, we are subjecting ours to the most cruel and uncaring treatment."

They added: "They are being punished for proudly representing their country with distinction at the Olympic Games."

16 members of the Australian Olympic team are already quarantining in Sydney, the capital of New South Wales.

The government of South Australia said "the high risk of the Delta strain of COVID-19 in NSW" is the reason for the additional requirements, for which the AOC has had an exemption request turned down.

AOC chief executive Matt Carroll said in a statement: "Not only are our Olympians fully vaccinated, but they have also been living in a highly controlled bubble in Tokyo, taking the utmost precautions, tested daily over many weeks."

"We have received no explanation as to why our application on behalf of these athletes has been rejected."

The 28-day quarantine could pose a significant risk to the physical and mental wellbeing of the athletes affected, according to Australian Institute of Sports chief medical officer David Hughes.

The state of South Australia, capital city Adelaide, has a population of over 1.7m and covers some of the most arid parts of Australia.

Australia has recorded fewer than 37,000 COVID-19 cases during the pandemic and a death toll under 1,000, fewer than many other developed countries.

I get the impression prisoners are getting better treatment than that in some ways, an analogy I recall seeing describe care home residents here while visitors were banned/heavily restricted.

 

[Bantamzen]

If the Australia quarantine system wasn't harsh enough: if you're an Olympic Athlete some of them have to quarantine for 28 DAYS!

Tokyo 2020: Some Australian Olympians face 28-day quarantine

Some Australians Olympians are having to quarantine for 28 days after returning to their country from Tokyo

www.bbc.co.uk

I get the impression prisoners are getting better treatment than that in some ways, an analogy I recall seeing describe care home residents here while visitors were banned/heavily restricted.

They really are stooping to new lows over there. What next, their medals thrown in quarantine for 3 months and their families interned? Once upon a time I had a plan to visit Down Under, well they can go whistle. North Korea seems more appealing right now.

 

[VauxhallandI]

They really are stooping to new lows over there. What next, their medals thrown in quarantine for 3 months and their families interned? Once upon a time I had a plan to visit Down Under, well they can go whistle. North Korea seems more appealing right now.

Yep I wasn't keen before, I always preferred the idea of New Zealand........

 

[Ediswan]

If the Australia quarantine system wasn't harsh enough: if you're an Olympic Athlete some of them have to quarantine for 28 DAYS!

More detail here: https://www.smh.com.au/sport/aoc-la...e-on-returning-olympians-20210811-p58hxp.html

It seems South Australia currently requires anybody arriving from New South Wales to quarantine for two weeks.

“SA Health advised Australian Olympic Committee (AOC) on 30 July that team members who quarantined in Sydney before travelling to South Australia would need to undergo a further two weeks of quarantine on return.”

 

[Pakenhamtrain]

If the Australia quarantine system wasn't harsh enough: if you're an Olympic Athlete some of them have to quarantine for 28 DAYS!

Tokyo 2020: Some Australian Olympians face 28-day quarantine

Some Australians Olympians are having to quarantine for 28 days after returning to their country from Tokyo

www.bbc.co.uk

I get the impression prisoners are getting better treatment than that in some ways, an analogy I recall seeing describe care home residents here while visitors were banned/heavily restricted.

It's only for those going to South Australia. Basically everyone want's to keep NSW people inside NSW.
They have good reason to do so:

What we know about the two cases who flew from Sydney to Melbourne

Authorities say two women who flew from Sydney to Melbourne on Monday afternoon will be fined, and everyone on board the flight has been put into quarantine.

www.abc.net.au

Idiots like these is why.

Canberra is now the latest to fall with thier first case and is joining the lockdown party:

ACT to enter seven-day lockdown as COVID-19 cases grow to four

Three close contacts of a Canberra man have tested positive to COVID-19 as the territory enters its first lockdown in more than a year.

www.theage.com.au

It appears the end goal at the moment is vaccinate vaccinate vaccinate. Down here in Victoria we are allowing U40s to have the AZ jab at hubs and at the GPs doing the vaccination. They have doctors on hand to give "Informed Consent"
SA have opened up Pfizer for 16 and up.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Is it "Send in the clowns"?

No, it’s ‘Changes’ by David Bowie

‘turn, and face the strain, ch-ch-ch-changes’

 

[Merseysider]

The BBC phrased it nicely:
Australian capital goes into snap lockdown after one case

How much longer can the country keep this up?

 

[Bantamzen]

The BBC phrased it nicely:
Australian capital goes into snap lockdown after one case

How much longer can the country keep this up?

Breaking News....

A man woke up this morning feeling a bit under the weather, forcing the Australian government to lock down the entire country for a month....

Seriously though, this will be costing them billions of dollars each month that they continue. Sooner or later the money will run out & Australia will have to start going to the rest of the world, cap in hand to get help & vaccines. They really have screwed themselves over going for the zero-covid route, and it should serve as a serious lesson to all those people who thought we just needed to hide from the virus by slamming the borders shut & stopping people going about their day to day lives. Viruses don't care about politicial decisions, they don't even know they exist.

 

[brad465]

Viruses don't care about political decisions, they don't even know they exist.

This is very true, but unfortunately those in favour of harsh restrictions use this description to argue against relaxations so it's hard to win them over with it (or anything else given how entrenched many are in their views).

Noticed today Amazon have announced the latest Lord of the Rings filming is moving from New Zealand to the UK. While there's no specific mention of this, I do wonder if New Zealand's border policy (currently shut for rest of 2021 and then likely to keep quarantine for unvaccinated travellers) has anything to do with the decision:

Lord of the Rings: Amazon moves show to UK from New Zealand

The multi-million dollar production is one of the most expensive shows in the history of television.

www.bbc.co.uk

Production of the new Lord of the Rings television series will move to the UK from New Zealand, Amazon Studios has confirmed.
The as-yet-untitled fantasy epic is set thousands of years before the events in JRR Tolkien's books The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings.
It is a major blow for New Zealand's entertainment industry where the award-winning movies were also filmed.
UK culture secretary Oliver Dowden welcomed the decision.
He said: "Thousands of high quality jobs all across the UK will be created and supported by The Lord of the Rings television series so this is very exciting news."
Amazon Studios, the film and TV arm of the technology giant, has already spent $465m (£336.5m) on the first season of the show.
It said the shift in locations was part of a plan to expand its production space and consolidate its footprint in the UK.
The first season of the show will finish filming in New Zealand and will be shown on Amazon Prime in September 2022.
Production will then move to the UK and four more seasons of the show are expected to be made.
New Zealand's economic development minister Stuart Nash said the government was "disappointed" by the decision.
He said the country's film industry was "incredibly competitive and highly mobile".
"We have no regrets about giving this production our best shot with government support," he said.

 

[Bantamzen]

This is very true, but unfortunately those in favour of harsh restrictions use this description to argue against relaxations so it's hard to win them over with it (or anything else given how entrenched many are in their views).

Noticed today Amazon have announced the latest Lord of the Rings filming is moving from New Zealand to the UK. While there's no specific mention of this, I do wonder if New Zealand's border policy (currently shut for rest of 2021 and then likely to keep quarantine for unvaccinated travellers) has anything to do with the decision:

Lord of the Rings: Amazon moves show to UK from New Zealand

The multi-million dollar production is one of the most expensive shows in the history of television.

www.bbc.co.uk

The film industry was big business for NZ, thanks in no small part to the scenery there. However in film production time is money, so if people going as part of the crew or cast are spending weeks at a time locked away, then yeah they are going to try to reduce the time they need to spend there. CGI is pretty much good enough these days to to require as much, if any on-site filming. So they could get the money shots in the mountains of NZ with a smallish crew, then film everything else elsewhere.

Its also worth pointing out that the UK was becoming increasingly popular for big ticket filming before the pandemic. NZ might just have given itself another financial headache.

 

[nlogax]

Its also worth pointing out that the UK was becoming increasingly popular for big ticket filming before the pandemic. NZ might just have given itself another financial headache.

Amazon Studios have just confirmed that direction of travel in the industry. Production for their Lord of the Rings series is now moving from NZ to the UK.

 

[Bantamzen]

Amazon Studios have just confirmed that direction of travel in the industry. Production for their Lord of the Rings series is now moving from NZ to the UK.

Suits us, there's a decent tourism industry around film locations. In my corner of West Yorkshire there has been quite a.lot of television and movie filming, and before the pandemic there was a noticeable uptick in tourists seeking out such locations.

 

[Cdd89]

I wonder if NZ have given up on their tourism advertising in the U.K. yet. I saw some mid last year and to be honest they’re probably just throwing their money down the drain.

 

[ainsworth74]

They really have screwed themselves over going for the zero-covid route, and it should serve as a serious lesson to all those people who thought we just needed to hide from the virus by slamming the borders shut & stopping people going about their day to day lives.

I'm not necessarily sure that that's true. Which isn't to say that the current situation is anything other than a total farce because it clearly is. But it's not especially difficult to imagine a situation in which Australia followed it's original zero-covid route but then didn't comprehensively screw up it's vaccine program meaning that when Delta did inevitably get in they wouldn't need more harsh lockdowns to control hospital admissions and death. In an alternative universe where they had a vaccine rollout as good as ours I rather suspect we might be looking rather enviously at an Australia which enjoyed large periods of near normality and low levels of death and was now highly vaccinated and able to get back to proper normality like we are in the UK.

But, we are where we are and that is no where good if you're Australian!

 

[Bantamzen]

I'm not necessarily sure that that's true. Which isn't to say that the current situation is anything other than a total farce because it clearly is. But it's not especially difficult to imagine a situation in which Australia followed it's original zero-covid route but then didn't comprehensively screw up it's vaccine program meaning that when Delta did inevitably get in they wouldn't need more harsh lockdowns to control hospital admissions and death. In an alternative universe where they had a vaccine rollout as good as ours I rather suspect we might be looking rather enviously at an Australia which enjoyed large periods of near normality and low levels of death and was now highly vaccinated and able to get back to proper normality like we are in the UK.

But, we are where we are and that is no where good if you're Australian!

The thing is that even with a successful vaccination programme & a strict all-but-closed border policy, the virus will still have got through. So add into this their zero-covid policy, and they would still be exactly where they are now. Because it is that "defeat covid" direction that is stalling them indefinitely. Their politicians might say now that things will start to return to normal when most people have had the vaccine there, but hey isn't that what politicians / experts said here?

I can see real trouble brewing between politicians convinced they can "defeat covid" & their respective populations in the coming months.

 

[Freightmaster]

I'm not necessarily sure that that's true. Which isn't to say that the current situation is anything other than a total farce because it clearly is. But it's not especially difficult to imagine a situation in which Australia followed it's original zero-covid route but then didn't comprehensively screw up it's vaccine program meaning that when Delta did inevitably get in they wouldn't need more harsh lockdowns to control hospital admissions and death. In an alternative universe where they had a vaccine rollout as good as ours I rather suspect we might be looking rather enviously at an Australia which enjoyed large periods of near normality and low levels of death and was now highly vaccinated and able to get back to proper normality like we are in the UK.

What you are saying makes perfect sense, but you are not accounting for one vital aspect - the so called 'exit wave' of
admissions and deaths which inevitably occurs once restrictions are totally lifted even with very high vaccination levels.

We are currently experiencing an exit wave of around 100 deaths a day which the UK public seems to be accepting,
presumably because it is significantly lower than the last wave; but even allowing for the difference in population and
the fact that Aussies will (hopefully) be wary and cautious when restrictions are lifted, they could still experience an
exit wave of around 100 deaths a week for a month or two - would Australians be able to stomach that??




MARK

 

[Jimini]

Risk virus could spread like ‘wildfire’ as crisis at Sydney hospital deepens

A major staffing crisis is looming at a western Sydney hospital after a COVID-19 cluster in a mental health unit grew to nine cases on Wednesday.

www.smh.com.au

Risk virus could spread like ‘wildfire’ as crisis at Sydney hospital deepens​

A major staffing crisis is looming at a western Sydney hospital after a COVID-19 cluster in a mental health unit grew to nine cases on Wednesday, as staff say they are being forced to continue to work after being exposed without adequate personal protective equipment.

Authorities are scrambling to redeploy staff from other hospitals to Nepean Hospital’s mental health unit, with an email from the local health district’s chief executive telling staff it “needed to and will need to continue” to draw on workers from other sites as some refuse to attend the site due to safety concerns.

NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard on Wednesday said about one third of the Nepean mental health staff were not vaccinated, renewing his push for mandatory vaccination for health workers as rising numbers of patients come to hospital with the virus.

Mr Hazzard warned more patients at Nepean could test positive in coming days and staff were possibly calling in sick due to “fears of going into the unit”.

More than 1000 healthcare staff across the state were furloughed in the fortnight to August 1, according to the latest data from NSW Health.

A clinician at Katoomba Hospital, who spoke to the Herald on the condition of anonymity, said the situation was “chaotic” on Tuesday as 15 patients on the mental health unit were transferred to other hospitals and nurses were told to be on standby to fill staff shortages at Nepean.

“We were told to send all patients to northern Sydney hospitals within three hours,” they said, adding that staff were “heartbroken” and patients distressed.

Staff did not receive official written communication from management about the matter, they said.
All nurses at Katoomba’s mental health unit had been asked to work at Nepean, staff said, including some who attended shifts on Tuesday.

But some Katoomba staff have expressed concern that the infection risk at the Nepean unit, which has roughly 30 patients, is not under control.

“Everyone’s beside themselves,” another staff member said. “So many nurses have families, they have young children. How can they go and work in a potentially infectious environment, be exposed to COVID, and then come back up [to Katoomba]?”

Two cases have been recorded in the Blue Mountains local government area since the start of August, compared to more than 160 in the Penrith local government area.

On Tuesday, some regular staff at the Nepean mental health unit were told they would need to continue working despite being close contacts of patient cases.
Nepean Blue Mountains Local Health District said in a statement “infection control and public health experts determined it was appropriate for a small number of staff, wearing full PPE, to continue the specialist care required for patients” in the unit.
Staff working at the Nepean unit had been offered special accommodation to reduce the risk of spreading the virus to their families, the statement said.
“They can’t draw staff just from general wards as they are highly trained mental health staff,” Mr Hazzard said.
He confirmed a woman had entered the Nepean Hospital unit on August 4, and a few days later she had a temperature and was given a COVID-19 test. It was positive.

There are 374 COVID-19 patients in NSW’s hospitals, including 62 in intensive care and 29 requiring ventilation. Cases are spread across 18 hospitals.
The outbreak at Nepean is the second-largest hospital cluster active in Sydney’s outbreak. Twenty-nine patients and seven staff members have tested positive across Liverpool Hospital since the outbreak began.
University of Sydney psychiatrist Professor Anthony Harris said people with severe mental illness needed to be prioritised for vaccination because they have a higher mortality rate than the general population.
“Mental health units are busy, crowded places where patients mingle and there is a lot of movement so patients and staff are open to infection. I’m aware that some local health districts have made efforts to get mental health patients vaccinated,” Professor Harris said.
“This issue has been identified by NSW Health but there is not yet a co-ordinated plan on a state level.”

Australian Salaried Medical Officers Federation NSW president Tony Sara said the nature of mental health units was the risk of COVID-19 “spreading like wildfire” as patients move about.
The clinician at Katoomba Hospital said one major concern was that the mental health unit has closed.
“My concern is like they might not even reopen the unit. They’ve taken mental health beds away at the worst time – when mental health presentations are increasing,” the doctor said.

My bold -- that furlough stat jumped out at me somewhat.

 

[DustyBin]

Risk virus could spread like ‘wildfire’ as crisis at Sydney hospital deepens

A major staffing crisis is looming at a western Sydney hospital after a COVID-19 cluster in a mental health unit grew to nine cases on Wednesday.

www.smh.com.au

My bold -- that furlough stat jumped out at me somewhat.

Very strange under the circumstances, although perhaps it suggests they’ve simply not been treating non-covid patients? It sounds like they’re going into meltdown and I feel for the staff and patients, although the former appear to be significantly overestimating the risk in some cases. For example they mention nurses with young children not wanting to put them at risk, which is natural of course but the risk is absolutely minuscule. What a mess.

 

[Domh245]

Very strange under the circumstances, although perhaps it suggests they’ve simply not been treating non-covid patients? It sounds like they’re going into meltdown and I feel for the staff and patients, although the former appear to be significantly overestimating the risk in some cases. For example they mention nurses with young children not wanting to put them at risk, which is natural of course but the risk is absolutely minuscule. What a mess.

I think you're right - those who they've furloughed (and noting that it's healthcare staff, so presumably includes receptionists and other non-medical roles?) are those who aren't "on the frontline" dealing with covid. Which as we've found out, just creates an issue later on when you've got a backlog of patients who were unable to get seen during the height of the lockdown and now need more care, alongside the regular amount of new patients

 

[takno]

I'm not necessarily sure that that's true. Which isn't to say that the current situation is anything other than a total farce because it clearly is. But it's not especially difficult to imagine a situation in which Australia followed it's original zero-covid route but then didn't comprehensively screw up it's vaccine program meaning that when Delta did inevitably get in they wouldn't need more harsh lockdowns to control hospital admissions and death. In an alternative universe where they had a vaccine rollout as good as ours I rather suspect we might be looking rather enviously at an Australia which enjoyed large periods of near normality and low levels of death and was now highly vaccinated and able to get back to proper normality like we are in the UK.

But, we are where we are and that is no where good if you're Australian!

That's certainly a reasonable hypothetical. An alternative and equally reasonable hypothetical would be a world where the vaccines were 6 months slower getting off the mark, or the Delta strain was 6 months faster. In either of those circumstances Australia would be having the same troubles keeping the infection under control as they are now, but that would rapidly be turning into overflowing hospitals and a death count comparable to or worse than ours.

 

[DustyBin]

That's certainly a reasonable hypothetical. An alternative and equally reasonable hypothetical would be a world where the vaccines were 6 months slower getting off the mark, or the Delta strain was 6 months faster. In either of those circumstances Australia would be having the same troubles keeping the infection under control as they are now, but that would rapidly be turning into overflowing hospitals and a death count comparable to or worse than ours.

That’s a very good point. Australia didn’t know at the time when or even if vaccines would become available, so whilst their gamble looks to have paid off (to an extent at least) I think this is more down to luck than judgement. I still don’t think they’ll get the end result they wanted either, sadly.

 

[Pakenhamtrain]

The BBC phrased it nicely:
Australian capital goes into snap lockdown after one case

How much longer can the country keep this up?

The ACT have made a wise move. 7 cases that cluster is up to. Funny enough there are now politicians who can't go anywhere and there are now politicians who fled to NSW....which is now in lockdown.

ACT COVID-19 cluster grows to seven as testing confirms initial case has links to Sydney outbreak

Canberra records one more locally acquired case of COVID-19, as genomic testing confirms the initial case which sparked the territory's lockdown has links to cases in the Greater Sydney outbreak.

www.abc.net.au

I'm not necessarily sure that that's true. Which isn't to say that the current situation is anything other than a total farce because it clearly is. But it's not especially difficult to imagine a situation in which Australia followed it's original zero-covid route but then didn't comprehensively screw up it's vaccine program meaning that when Delta did inevitably get in they wouldn't need more harsh lockdowns to control hospital admissions and death. In an alternative universe where they had a vaccine rollout as good as ours I rather suspect we might be looking rather enviously at an Australia which enjoyed large periods of near normality and low levels of death and was now highly vaccinated and able to get back to proper normality like we are in the UK.

But, we are where we are and that is no where good if you're Australian!

Morrison government silent on contact with Pfizer global chief after Kevin Rudd intervenes in vaccine talks

Under fire for his government not reaching out to the pharmaceutical giant’s international head, health minister Greg Hunt also avoided naming the former Labor PM

www.theguardian.com

Here's where we went wrong. Morrison farts around with Pfizer in 2020.

I wonder if NZ have given up on their tourism advertising in the U.K. yet. I saw some mid last year and to be honest they’re probably just throwing their money down the drain.

On the advertising screens in the City Loop a few months back there were adverts for New York City.

 

[Merseysider]

With the entire state of NSW now in lockdown it appears their exit strategy is literally to close everything and lock everybody up until they vaccinate the population, according to the NSW Premier:

Berejikilian said the situation in NSW was “dire” and warned the state faced months of lockdown while low vaccination rates – currently about 26% of adults have had two doses – are lifted to close to 70%.

Berejikilian goes on to describe the Delta variant as “diabolical” - but I would argue potentially spending the rest of the year in perpetual lockdown is a much worse prospect.

 

[brad465]

With the entire state of NSW now in lockdown it appears their exit strategy is literally to close everything and lock everybody up until they vaccinate the population, according to the NSW Premier:


Berejikilian goes on to describe the Delta variant as “diabolical” - but I would argue potentially spending the rest of the year in perpetual lockdown is a much worse prospect.

Not only this, but they're now tightening restrictions further, including a 5km distance limit for doing almost anything, and scaling up fines to AU$5000. There is definitely serious trouble on the horizon down under the way things are going:

Australia: New South Wales 'in worst ever Covid situation'

While case numbers are relatively low, the Australian state's premier has warned of a Covid surge.

www.bbc.co.uk

The leader of New South Wales has warned this is "the worst situation Australia's been in" since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
State Premier Gladys Berejiklian said rules would be tightened in Sydney, the state capital, which is in lockdown.
Covid fines will also go up to AU$5,000 (US$3,685; £2,656) from AU$1,000.
"This is literally a war, and we've known we've been in a war for some time, but never to this extent," Ms Berejiklian told reporters.
She added that September and October would be "very difficult".
Case numbers and deaths in the Australian state remain relatively low compared to some of the world's worst outbreaks, including in the US and UK.
However, locally transmitted infections hit 466 on Saturday - a significant increase from the previous daily high of 390 set a day earlier.
Four deaths were reported on Saturday, bringing the state's total number of deaths in this outbreak to 42.
Sydney has been in lockdown for nine weeks. Officials had hoped to lift the city's restrictions on 28 August, but that is now looking increasingly unlikely.
From Monday, people will be restricted to staying within 5km of their home for shopping, exercise or outdoor recreation, with exemptions in place for social bubbles.

And from 21 August, anyone wishing to travel from Greater Sydney to regional New South Wales will need a permit. Anyone found travelling without a permit will be fined AU$3,000.
Hundreds more defence personnel will also enforce lockdown measures in the city, after Australian Defence Force soldiers were first deployed last month.
NSW Police Commissioner Mick Fuller said some people had been using excuses related to exercise, social bubbles and regional travel.
"These are some of the strongest powers we've ever had in the history of the NSW Police Force," he told reporters. "It's all about getting ahead of Delta [variant of Covid-19], not chasing it."