What is the Covid-19 Exit Strategy of 'Zero Covid' countries such as Hong Kong?

[greyman42]

That’s a very good point. Australia didn’t know at the time when or even if vaccines would become available, so whilst their gamble looks to have paid off (to an extent at least) I think this is more down to luck than judgement. I still don’t think they’ll get the end result they wanted either, sadly.

How has their gamble paid off?

 

[Merseysider]

My point of view is that these measures wouldn’t be necessary if they hadn’t completely screwed up (read: inexcusably procrastinated) vaccine procurement. This bit:

And from 21 August, anyone wishing to travel from Greater Sydney to regional New South Wales will need a permit. Anyone found travelling without a permit will be fined AU$3,000.
Hundreds more defence personnel will also enforce lockdown measures in the city, after Australian Defence Force soldiers were first deployed last month.

strikes me as particulary authoritarian and OTT. I wonder what @yorkie would say on the matter!

 

[DustyBin]

How has their gamble paid off?

It’s debatable (and for the record I’m not saying they made the right decision) but they have kept deaths relatively low and now have access to vaccines. In that respect you could argue it paid off (or at least should have). The reality however is rather more complicated and they’re now in the unenviable position of having the virus spreading rapidly through an unvaccinated and immunologically naïve population. Unless they (somehow) turn it around very quickly any advantage gained will be squandered, at which point the gamble certainly won’t have paid off.

 

[brad465]

With the entire state of NSW now in lockdown it appears their exit strategy is literally to close everything and lock everybody up until they vaccinate the population, according to the NSW Premier:

Berejikilian goes on to describe the Delta variant as “diabolical” - but I would argue potentially spending the rest of the year in perpetual lockdown is a much worse prospect.

Having read the report quoted here more, to put into context how difficult getting 70% of the NSW population vaccinated, and/or the whole Australian population, will be, no country in the world, even those who were rolling out vaccines at the end of 2020, has got to 70% of its national population vaccinated yet. A few countries are close and look set to pass it soon (the UK is around 60%), but that's still at least 8 months on from when they were first approved. Australia will really need to get deliveries ramped up soon and hope hesitancy isn't over 30% to get to that level.

 

[yorksrob]

They have a supply of the Astra Zenecka vaccine. They need to get on with it.

 

[Merseysider]

They have a supply of the Astra Zenecka vaccine. They need to get on with it.

The same vaccine that GPs are still trying to stop younger people from taking!

Matt Bransby, a 31-year-old from Liverpool in the centre of Sydney’s outbreak, went to a nearby clinic recently but during his consultation [about AZ] was encouraged to take a week to think about it. He says he was told by a doctor “if you insist, I’ll give it to you” but was warned: “What if you’re that one in a million [who develops a clot]?”

 

[Simon11]

The same vaccine that GPs are still trying to stop younger people from taking

I dont understand why normal healthy people need to speak with their doctor before getting the jab. Its not the first I have heard of it in Australia.

Am I missing something…?

 

[Pakenhamtrain]

Not only this, but they're now tightening restrictions further, including a 5km distance limit for doing almost anything, and scaling up fines to AU$5000. There is definitely serious trouble on the horizon down under the way things are going:

Australia: New South Wales 'in worst ever Covid situation'

While case numbers are relatively low, the Australian state's premier has warned of a Covid surge.

www.bbc.co.uk

"The worst situation we've been in"

Did she miss Victoria racking up 700 cases a day!

I dont understand why normal healthy people need to speak with their doctor before getting the jab. Its not the first I have heard of it in Australia.

Am I missing something…?

To cover the backsides of the doctor or whoever gives out the jab.

 

[brad465]

NSW now has over 7,000 active cases and is rising fast, while Victoria has just passed over 200 active cases as well. Furthermore, Canberra went into lockdown less than a week ago because of 1 active case, that tally is now up to 28, so if this carries on they're looking at a long haul as well.

 

[LAX54]

How has their gamble paid off?

No, I think most people think, they got it wrong, and still have ! It must be obvious to them by now that a total shutdown of borders, does not really work at all, on the news the other day, they were about to lockdown a Town, as there was an outbreak, but could not identify who, or anyone, that started it.

 

[big_rig]

I read an article the other day which suggested with this latest extension, Melbourne will shortly have been in a 'stay at home' lockdown for longer than London since the beginning of all this. I think it was 50 days in early 2020, 110 days for the second one, and there's been three or four more since of varying shorter length, including the current ongoing one.

 

[LAX54]

I read an article the other day which suggested with this latest extension, Melbourne will shortly have been in a 'stay at home' lockdown for longer than London since the beginning of all this. I think it was 50 days in early 2020, 110 days for the second one, and there's been three or four more since of varying shorter length, including the current ongoing one.

also goes to prove, that with each lockdown, unless you call an actual halt, they will just give rise to another, and another..... !

 

[nedchester]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1427302191648460816?s=20

So how does this work in Australia then?!

 

[Ediswan]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1427302191648460816?s=20

So how does this work in Australia then?!

Bendy straws ?

 

[Bantamzen]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1427302191648460816?s=20

So how does this work in Australia then?!

What the actual....???

 

[brad465]

What the actual....???

I'm not surprised that remark was made: the rules, written and unwritten, of how the world goes about its business evaporated completely last year. Governments, even in perceived democracies, have oppressed and abused their citizens, they've ballooned public borrowing to unheard peacetime levels and in the case of what that guy said, those who we put our trust in and believe in to gain intelligence have turned out to say and do some of the most stupid and bizarre stuff.

A time traveller from 2019 seeing all this would be completely shocked and/or unable to believe what they saw as truth; now though nothing is a surprise anymore. It seems many have been so successfully brainwashed that they're begging to be controlled/abused.

 

[Bantamzen]

I'm not surprised that remark was made: the rules, written and unwritten, of how the world goes about its business evaporated completely last year. Governments, even in perceived democracies, have oppressed and abused their citizens, they've ballooned public borrowing to unheard peacetime levels and in the case of what that guy said, those who we put our trust in and believe in to gain intelligence have turned out to say and do some of the most stupid and bizarre stuff.

A time traveller from 2019 seeing all this would be completely shocked and/or unable to believe what they saw as truth; now though nothing is a surprise anymore. It seems many have been so successfully brainwashed that they're begging to be controlled/abused.

Depressingly although there is quite a bit of resistance to the measures shown in the originally linked tweet, one made by the Premier himself has attracted a worrying amount of support no matter how daft it is.

(1) Dan Andrews on Twitter: "On the advice of the Chief Health Officer, we will introduce additional measures to stop the spread of coronavirus in Victoria. https://t.co/iCo6gzKFEs" / Twitter

Many people are Tweeting to say that they agree, and thanking the guy for "protecting us and our children". It seems that the same level of madness we saw here during the Autumn of last year where measures were randomly introduced to "stop the spread of the virus" are still alive and well in Australia, albeit with a grim determination by Australian authorities to continue to pursue a zero covid policy.

 

[kristiang85]

New Zealand is going into a nationwide 3 day lockdown because one case has been found in Auckland. Madness.

 

[LancasterRed]

Many people are Tweeting to say that they agree, and thanking the guy for "protecting us and our children". It seems that the same level of madness we saw here during the Autumn of last year where measures were randomly introduced to "stop the spread of the virus" are still alive and well in Australia, albeit with a grim determination by Australian authorities to continue to pursue a zero covid policy.

Dan Andrews is regarded as a hero in Victoria. His "people first" approach has gone down very well with the majority of the people he serves however the poor vaccination distribution at national level has led to a situation where he has had to introduce additional measures that he wouldn't have wanted to implement.

New Zealand is going into a nationwide 3 day lockdown because one case has been found in Auckland. Madness.

If a world where government wants to protect its citizens from harm is madness then something is severely wrong. It's a 3 day lockdown to trace close contacts and stop the spread - Jacinda Ardern has experience and knowledge in spades in this comes through with common sense policies such as this. If it was longer there may be questions needing to be asked but ultimately this is beneficial.

 

[Smidster]

And now NZ is back in Lockdown after 1 case

New Zealand is going into a nationwide 3 day lockdown because one case has been found in Auckland. Madness.

In fairness if you are going to go for "Zero-Covid" then you have to act on any case and at least when it is only a handful you have a shot at stopping it in the short term.

Australia is now in a horrible half-way position - When you get numbers into the hundreds there are so many different chains of transmission and (completely legal) interactions between people that the genie is out of the bottle and you are never truly going to eliminate it even if you put your population under effective house arrest for months on end.

I am not at all sure how they will transition to a more normal position - even after vaccinations we know that the virus will still spread and kill people. Is that something the Aus / NZ populations are going to accept?

 

[NSEFAN]

I am not at all sure how they will transition to a more normal position - even after vaccinations we know that the virus will still spread and kill people. Is that something the Aus / NZ populations are going to accept?

They will have to accept it, sooner or later, if they want to reopen to any semblance of how things were before covid. Even with over 75% of adults double jabbed, we currently have about 50-100 deaths per day attributed to covid in the UK and we seem to be running reasonably normally at this level, with most businesses open and the economy ticking over.

 

[DustyBin]

Dan Andrews is regarded as a hero in Victoria. His "people first" approach has gone down very well with the majority of the people he serves however the poor vaccination distribution at national level has led to a situation where he has had to introduce additional measures that he wouldn't have wanted to implement.

If a world where government wants to protect its citizens from harm is madness then something is severely wrong. It's a 3 day lockdown to trace close contacts and stop the spread - Jacinda Ardern has experience and knowledge in spades in this comes through with common sense policies such as this. If it was longer there may be questions needing to be asked but ultimately this is beneficial.

What they’re actually doing though is swapping one harm for another as it’s politically expedient, particularly at this stage. Whether rightly or wrongly is a matter for debate, but let’s not pretend that it’s a win-win situation.

 

[Watershed]

If a world where government wants to protect its citizens from harm is madness then something is severely wrong.

Governments wanting to protect their population from harm is quite natural.

But Australasia's single-minded obsession with stopping Covid - regardless of the resultant harms - is madness. Even with their low vaccination and immunity rates.

Then there are the utterly pointless restrictions they've introduced, e.g. outdoor playgrounds being shut ("it's a lockdown, how dare kids have fun") and masks being mandatory outdoors. We've been through much the same charade here and in wider Europe - to what benefit?

It's a 3 day lockdown to trace close contacts and stop the spread

If you really believe that, I have a bridge to sell you...

It's simply unsustainable to live or try to run a business in an environment where snap lockdowns (almost invariably lasting many times the promised initial length) are always on the cards.

And whilst this approach might nominally be popular with voters, would that still be the case if they realised what the alternatives were?

The abolition of restrictions in England - without the resultant consequences that all the doommongers had predicted - is going to make the case for new restrictions a lot harder here. Perhaps Australasia might take a leaf out of our book...

 

[brad465]

Depressingly although there is quite a bit of resistance to the measures shown in the originally linked tweet, one made by the Premier himself has attracted a worrying amount of support no matter how daft it is.

(1) Dan Andrews on Twitter: "On the advice of the Chief Health Officer, we will introduce additional measures to stop the spread of coronavirus in Victoria. https://t.co/iCo6gzKFEs" / Twitter

Many people are Tweeting to say that they agree, and thanking the guy for "protecting us and our children". It seems that the same level of madness we saw here during the Autumn of last year where measures were randomly introduced to "stop the spread of the virus" are still alive and well in Australia, albeit with a grim determination by Australian authorities to continue to pursue a zero covid policy.

Yes we have to hope that Jonathan Pie's quote "the real world isn't on your Facebook feed", applies both to Twitter and this situation. That said if a silent majority/large minority against the whole response exists in Melbourne/Australia, they'll probably reserve their grievances for next year's elections.

 

[Ianno87]

Governments wanting to protect their population from harm is quite natural.

But Australasia's single-minded obsession with stopping Covid - regardless of the resultant harms - is madness. Even with their low vaccination and immunity rates.

Then there are the utterly pointless restrictions they've introduced, e.g. outdoor playgrounds being shut ("it's a lockdown, how dare kids have fun") and masks being mandatory outdoors. We've been through much the same charade here and in wider Europe - to what benefit?


If you really believe that, I have a bridge to sell you...

It's simply unsustainable to live or try to run a business in an environment where snap lockdowns (almost invariably lasting many times the promised initial length) are always on the cards.

And whilst this approach might nominally be popular with voters, would that still be the case if they realised what the alternatives were?

The abolition of restrictions in England - without the resultant consequences that all the doommongers had predicted - is going to make the case for new restrictions a lot harder here. Perhaps Australasia might take a leaf out of our book...

In NZ's case, a 3 day lockdown probably is palatable because they've had so much normality, and aren't nearly as "worn down" as we are (for example).

 

[Bantamzen]

Dan Andrews is regarded as a hero in Victoria. His "people first" approach has gone down very well with the majority of the people he serves however the poor vaccination distribution at national level has led to a situation where he has had to introduce additional measures that he wouldn't have wanted to implement.

Then either he's an amazing PR guy, or the people of that state are way too trusting. Because clearly he is going after an impossible result, zero covid. States like theirs had better bunker down for the long run, because they have lost their freedoms for a very long time.

If a world where government wants to protect its citizens from harm is madness then something is severely wrong. It's a 3 day lockdown to trace close contacts and stop the spread - Jacinda Ardern has experience and knowledge in spades in this comes through with common sense policies such as this. If it was longer there may be questions needing to be asked but ultimately this is beneficial.

3 days won't stop the spread though. They just need to ask their neighbours.

 

[Watershed]

In NZ's case, a 3 day lockdown probably is palatable because they've had so much normality, and aren't nearly as "worn down" as we are (for example).

If it really does only last 3 days, it wouldn't be nearly as much of a problem. But with it likely being the Delta variant, and people acting normally until the case was announced, there's no chance the outbreak will be contained by a 3 day lockdown.

Australasia went for a zero Covid approach, and whilst it has just about managed to keep that up until now (through repeated "short" lockdowns that typically ended up being weeks or months long), with the Delta variant they're going to have to think again. This was all fairly inevitable...

 

[Mag_seven]

because they've had so much normality

Having your international borders in a state of almost permanent closure is not normality.

 

[43066]

I am not at all sure how they will transition to a more normal position - even after vaccinations we know that the virus will still spread and kill people. Is that something the Aus / NZ populations are going to accept?

At some point the money will run out. As people lose their jobs, face financial ruin and the prospect of losing their homes they might start to question why their government has overreacted so spectacularly to a mild respiratory virus that has a better than 99% survival rate.

By then it will be too late of course.

 

[Highlandspring]

Here's one from the news today -

Cabramatta man disobeys COVID health orders and travels to Armidale

A man will spend two months in jail for breaching public health orders after travelling from Sydney to Armidale in northern NSW.

www.abc.net.au

A man has been sentenced to two months in prison for travelling by train without an 'acceptable' reason for being outside his home.

Before 2020 I always fancied visiting Australia but based on their insane performance over the last 18 months there's absolutely no way I'll ever be going anywhere near their fascist country now. The news footage of Australian police restraining and forcibly placing masks on the faces of members of the public outside last year made me feel physically sick.