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What is the Covid-19 Exit Strategy of 'Zero Covid' countries such as Australia and New Zealand?

hst43102

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You're contradicting yourself.
Did you even read my post? The risk is zero if there is no contact with other people and next to zero if there is limited contact with others. Can you please explain how you think the policy of limiting people's outdoor time helps the situation in Australia?
 
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Pakenhamtrain

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Looks like Qantas are anticipating the Australian border reopening in December

That's what Qantas wants. Doesn't mean they will get it. We do have flogs like Mark McGowan who are doing thier best hermit kingdom impersonation.

Meanwhile in the nations capital:

And in other news I received my first AZ dose yesterday. 2 minutes after the jab I sure knew about it. I reacted like I have for other jabs*. Other than that I'm a bit tired and just a bit of the usual pain at the jab site.

*For me that's my hearing going funny and feeling it in my head a bit.

On the way home I got held up at the station by one of the new HCMTs so it's not all bad:
 

island

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Did you even read my post? The risk is zero if there is no contact with other people and next to zero if there is limited contact with others. Can you please explain how you think the policy of limiting people's outdoor time helps the situation in Australia?
Someone going out for 2N hours to exercise is, all else being equal, likely to encounter twice as many people as someone going out for N hours. Each encounter between people carries a risk of COVID spreading. Being out for a shorter time will mean a (very slightly) lesser risk.

I didn’t say the policy helped, I said that was the rationale for it.
 

nickw1

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Lockdowns and restrictions are about reducing risk, not eliminating it. Being out for N hours is less of a risk than 2N hours.

Is it sensible overall? Maybe, maybe not. But it's not completely irrational.

Though if the risk from going to a supermarket (and I'm sure, no one - but no one - would argue that there is any justification whatsoever in closing supermarkets) is a certain value, then risk of getting/spreading Covid from a country hike in an isolated area is probably a thousandth of that at best - and probably much lower. Even if there are people around, as long as you keep your distance and pass them quickly, are you really going to get or spread Covid? The risk must be miniscule. And if you carry a mask and wear it when there are people around - even less.

So the extra risk from such outdoor activities on top of the essential activities which cannot be closed down is scarcely worth placing extra restrictions on them. If opening up the outdoors results in 1001 cases rather than 1000 cases, let's say, is closing it down really worth doing, given the adverse effects it will cause on people's mental and physical health?

It should be about balance. Anything which has a negligible impact on the number of cases, is arguably not worth restricting. Many politicians, and Australia seems to be particularly bad about this, seem to deny that 'hard' lockdowns (stay at home rules, rather than just closing high-risk businesses) have adverse effects on people arguably worse than allowing such very-low-risk activities.
 
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35B

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Who is denying biology? I know how viruses spread, but what you fail to connect is no matter how much you try to contain a virus, the humans that carry have to move outside of your lines in the sand. It is isn't a case of working out the exceptions, they will be numerous and way too many to control. That is a reality of modern society. You could of course shut pretty much everything down, but then how do you pay for all of this?

Basically it is the same argument about lockdowns that have been going on about lockdowns since the pandemic started. You are really bringing nothing new to the table.


And look where they are, staring the inevitable in the face. The lockdowns aren't doing what they hoped for, they messed up their vaccine programme, and they are going to have to prepare to come out from behind the sofa before they completely wreak their economy.


Well you got that one right. But frankly our opposing views do not matter one jot, what matters is the damage lockdowns have done & could they ever be used again.
I agree, their policy is failing. But it's not failing because of lockdowns, but because of a failure to deliver the vaccination programme fast enough. The lockdowns have worked in Australia and New Zealand to a much greater extent than you are willing to allow, because the restrictions (however framed) have limited the amount of social interaction to sufficiently low levels that the virus can't transmit.

The change, which does seriously affect how they emerge, is that Delta is much more transmissible and Australia especially had fallen into a halfway house position over it's administration of lockdowns.

Though if the risk from going to a supermarket (and I'm sure, no one - but no one - would argue that there is any justification whatsoever in closing supermarkets) is a certain value, then risk of getting/spreading Covid from a country hike in an isolated area is probably a thousandth of that at best - and probably much lower. Even if there are people around, as long as you keep your distance and pass them quickly, are you really going to get or spread Covid? The risk must be miniscule. And if you carry a mask and wear it when there are people around - even less.

So the extra risk from such outdoor activities on top of the essential activities which cannot be closed down is scarcely worth placing extra restrictions on them. If opening up the outdoors results in 1001 cases rather than 1000 cases, let's say, is closing it down really worth doing, given the adverse effects it will cause on people's mental and physical health?

It should be about balance. Anything which has a negligible impact on the number of cases, is arguably not worth restricting. Many politicians, and Australia seems to be particularly bad about this, seem to deny that 'hard' lockdowns (stay at home rules, rather than just closing high-risk businesses) have adverse effects on people arguably worse than allowing such very-low-risk activities.
Except that the experience here was that those extra permissions were stretched, and did undermine the effect of the measures. People don't just drive x hours for a long walk, walk, then get back in their car - they refuel, they purchase food and drink, etc.

As for the adverse effects on those subject to lockdowns, that's a fair challenge. But that has to be weighed in the balance against the costs of allowing the disease to spread. Given the UK's record over the last 18 months, I can forgive Australian politicians from wishing to avoid the same outcomes.
 

Yew

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Aside from the issues of hypocrisy when using a dog, this raises three questions from me :

1) Does anybody actually wear masks as a hat? Never seen that one before!
2) Can dogs contract sars-coV-19? I've heard about cats but nothing about dogs
3) FOR THE LAST TIME, DO FACE MASKS WORK????
For 1) they have to make a straw man to beat.
 

brad465

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In the last 7 days, according to Worldometer, Australia has logged more cases than Sweden (Sweden is also seeing cases increase slightly). I don't know how like for like they are in terms of population numbers and densities, but we know they've gone for polar opposite strategies.
 

nickw1

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Except that the experience here was that those extra permissions were stretched, and did undermine the effect of the measures. People don't just drive x hours for a long walk, walk, then get back in their car - they refuel, they purchase food and drink, etc.
That's a fair point BUT if someone drives 10 kilometres to walk, doesn't need to purchase fuel, doesn't need to purchase food and drink, walks on their own or with someone in their bubble, and then returns home - there is minuscule risk.

The problem with blanket rules - in life in general - is they assume people will do the 'worst' thing - and why I am always in favour of a more nuanced approach.
 
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NorthKent1989

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Given the UK's record over the last 18 months, I can forgive Australian politicians from wishing to avoid the same outcomes.

I think you need to reverse that, our vaccination has been much higher than Australia, so in actual fact they are now behind us as we are heading back to normality and are going to have to learn to live with this virus.

Unless of course you’re referring to 18 months ago, but that ship has sailed now so we have to move on, Australia and NZ’s hysterical reactions at this point is just they are being seen as doing something, nothing more.
 

brad465

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New Zealand now have over 500 active cases, while Australia has added over 1,300 cases today, with the active case count in NSW going up by over 1,000 to 15,787. The way things are looking NSW would be lucky to be out of lockdown in time for Christmas.
 

Pakenhamtrain

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New Zealand now have over 500 active cases, while Australia has added over 1,300 cases today, with the active case count in NSW going up by over 1,000 to 15,787. The way things are looking NSW would be lucky to be out of lockdown in time for Christmas.
NSW will be out of lockdown by Christmas. No matter how many cases. That's just how they're running things up there.
 

johncrossley

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NSW will be out of lockdown by Christmas. No matter how many cases. That's just how they're running things up there.

You would hope that the vast majority of the 60+ people would be fully vaccinated by then, so that a large number of cases would not lead to a huge number of deaths or hospitalisations. Then you would be in a similar situation to where the UK and most of Europe are now. A large number of cases but no more lockdowns. However, you would have to tolerate an ongoing death toll that is now considered socially acceptable here because there were so many more deaths during 2020 and early 2021.
 

brad465

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NSW will be out of lockdown by Christmas. No matter how many cases. That's just how they're running things up there.
You would hope that the vast majority of the 60+ people would be fully vaccinated by then, so that a large number of cases would not lead to a huge number of deaths or hospitalisations. Then you would be in a similar situation to where the UK and most of Europe are now. A large number of cases but no more lockdowns. However, you would have to tolerate an ongoing death toll that is now considered socially acceptable here because there were so many more deaths during 2020 and early 2021.
Yes Scott Morrison appears to have moved to a stance of living with covid, but only once 70+% of over 16s are vaccinated. The main criticism of this though from some states is this is too risky and needs to be stricter, not the other way round in saying its potentially unachievable and too strict.
 

Pakenhamtrain

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DustyBin

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Personally I would love to see someone with one on their head. Even better if they try to justify why it works!

The funniest I’ve seen was somebody wearing a surgical mask over their eyes (with two holes cut out). I suspect they were making a statement however!

In the last 7 days, according to Worldometer, Australia has logged more cases than Sweden (Sweden is also seeing cases increase slightly). I don't know how like for like they are in terms of population numbers and densities, but we know they've gone for polar opposite strategies.

It’s almost as if we don’t really have the ability to control the virus and it’s going to do what it’s going to do… Who’d have thought!
 

nlogax

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It’s almost as if we don’t really have the ability to control the virus and it’s going to do what it’s going to do… Who’d have thought!
This reality is something that's been forecast for well over a year. Anyone running a country and aiming for zero covid (ie the King Canute approach) has now shown themselves to be either foolish or naive.
 

philosopher

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More like until we hit 70 percent vax.

We have finally woken up to the fact covid zero is not happening.
Given it looks like Australia is quietly abandoning zero covid, I do wonder what New Zealand will do now?
 

Skimpot flyer

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Latest update from New South Wales, Australia, where things are getting really grim


(warning, a sense of humour is required when viewing this clip)
 

LOL The Irony

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South Australia is now demanding requiring you download an app that features facial recognition and geolocation that contacts you and gives you 15 minutes to reply, or the police will come. God help Australia.
https://twitter.com/Lukewearechange/status/1433452485067292672?t=jwJm9comjDgvPJIhzFaj2w&s=19
WTF "People in South Australia will be forced to download an app that combines facial recognition and geolocation. The state will text them at random times, and thereafter they will have 15 minutes to take a picture of their face in the location where they are supposed to be.
And here's the article that triggered the tweet - still calling Australia a liberal democracy, somehow.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/pandemic-australia-still-liberal-democracy/619940/
Intrastate travel within Australia is also severely restricted. And the government of South Australia, one of the country’s six states, developed and is now testing an app as Orwellian as any in the free world to enforce its quarantine rules. People in South Australia will be forced to download an app that combines facial recognition and geolocation. The state will text them at random times, and thereafter they will have 15 minutes to take a picture of their face in the location where they are supposed to be. Should they fail, the local police department will be sent to follow up in person. “We don’t tell them how often or when, on a random basis they have to reply within 15 minutes,” Premier Steven Marshall explained. “I think every South Australian should feel pretty proud that we are the national pilot for the home-based quarantine app.”
 

kristiang85

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I can see merits of such an app if it was monitoring post travel quarantine - I would happily use that instead of going to a hotel.

However, it sounds like this is being used for general lockdown? If correct, that is insane and abhorrent.
 

hst43102

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South Australia is now demanding requiring you download an app that features facial recognition and geolocation that contacts you and gives you 15 minutes to reply, or the police will come. God help Australia.
https://twitter.com/Lukewearechange/status/1433452485067292672?t=jwJm9comjDgvPJIhzFaj2w&s=19

And here's the article that triggered the tweet - still calling Australia a liberal democracy, somehow.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/pandemic-australia-still-liberal-democracy/619940/
That is unbelievably draconian and Orwellian in every form. I can't believe Australia has reached this level of madness in just 18 months or so.
 

brad465

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South Australia is now demanding requiring you download an app that features facial recognition and geolocation that contacts you and gives you 15 minutes to reply, or the police will come. God help Australia.
https://twitter.com/Lukewearechange/status/1433452485067292672?t=jwJm9comjDgvPJIhzFaj2w&s=19

And here's the article that triggered the tweet - still calling Australia a liberal democracy, somehow.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/pandemic-australia-still-liberal-democracy/619940/
That is unbelievably draconian and Orwellian in every form. I can't believe Australia has reached this level of madness in just 18 months or so.
I wouldn't be surprised if criminals released on parole/licence and/or are electronically tagged get more freedom than this.
 

102 fan

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South Australia is now demanding requiring you download an app that features facial recognition and geolocation that contacts you and gives you 15 minutes to reply, or the police will come. God help Australia.
https://twitter.com/Lukewearechange/status/1433452485067292672?t=jwJm9comjDgvPJIhzFaj2w&s=19

And here's the article that triggered the tweet - still calling Australia a liberal democracy, somehow.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/pandemic-australia-still-liberal-democracy/619940/


What's the position if you switch off your phone? Or 'loose' it?

What South Australia is developing here is very, very sinister.
 

philosopher

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South Australia is now demanding requiring you download an app that features facial recognition and geolocation that contacts you and gives you 15 minutes to reply, or the police will come. God help Australia.
https://twitter.com/Lukewearechange/status/1433452485067292672?t=jwJm9comjDgvPJIhzFaj2w&s=19

And here's the article that triggered the tweet - still calling Australia a liberal democracy, somehow.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/pandemic-australia-still-liberal-democracy/619940/
The liberal part of ‘liberal democracy’ pretty much has no meaning if parts of Australia are implementing rules such as that.
 

zero

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I can see merits of such an app if it was monitoring post travel quarantine - I would happily use that instead of going to a hotel.

That's correct, it will be used for home quarantine when travel resumes in larger numbers as there are nowhere near enough hotel quarantine spaces.

There is no lockdown in South Australia at the moment, only some mild restrictions.
 

Bantamzen

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What's the position if you switch off your phone? Or 'loose' it?

What South Australia is developing here is very, very sinister.
Or you choose not to own one? Do they assign a police officer to monitor you 24/7?

That's correct, it will be used for home quarantine when travel resumes in larger numbers as there are nowhere near enough hotel quarantine spaces.

There is no lockdown in South Australia at the moment, only some mild restrictions.
It will be used for quarantine, for now. But give politicians that power and they will abuse it. It is for this very reason we should be fighting against any form of vaccine passport here.
 

island

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Or you choose not to own one? Do they assign a police officer to monitor you 24/7?
The amount of people travelling internationally and not owning a smartphone is minuscule, and such a tiny number of people won’t obstruct the implementation of the policy.

As the proposal is aimed at travellers who would otherwise be subject to hotel quarantine, I expect that is where people will end up if they cannot or do not use the app.
 

Cdd89

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Their magnificent app can do nothing to prevent someone having a merry old party with 20 guests in their own home, though. And many visitors to Australia will be interested in reuniting with family/friends, and doing just that.
 

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