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What is the Covid-19 Exit Strategy of 'Zero Covid' countries such as Hong Kong?

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philosopher

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Let's not forget that our pandemic plans specifically recommended against track and trace, as there is minimal evidence that is showed any effect.
Test and trace has too many things that can go wrong. First the person with symptoms needs to get tested. Second the test results need to come back before their contacts may develop symptoms. Third those testing positive need to remember who they were in contact in the days before they got symptoms. Fourth those traced need to be contacted. Fifth those contacted need to actually self isolate.
 
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Bikeman78

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Test and trace has too many things that can go wrong. First the person with symptoms needs to get tested. Second the test results need to come back before their contacts may develop symptoms. Third those testing positive need to remember who they were in contact in the days before they got symptoms. Fourth those traced need to be contacted. Fifth those contacted need to actually self isolate.
With rules and restrictions in place, will people be honest about who they have met? Unlikely to admit going round to their mate's house unless they are gauranteed immunity from fines etc. I'm still convinced that it cannot work properly in the UK or any country with a similar number of cases.
 

Kite159

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Test and trace has too many things that can go wrong. First the person with symptoms needs to get tested. Second the test results need to come back before their contacts may develop symptoms. Third those testing positive need to remember who they were in contact in the days before they got symptoms. Fourth those traced need to be contacted. Fifth those contacted need to actually self isolate.

And relies on people answering the phone and not signing into places as "M Mouse"
 

Freightmaster

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With rules and restrictions in place, will people be honest about who they have met? Unlikely to admit going round to their mate's house unless they are guaranteed immunity from fines etc. I'm still convinced that it cannot work properly in the UK or any country with a similar number of cases.
Spot on - it's like trying to find a needle in a haystack when the haystack is on fire!! :smile:

Effective Track and Trace requires both extremely low prevalence and 100% honesty/adherence,
backed up by punitive penalties and an authoritarian/heavy handed regime, but as this is the UK,
not South Korea/Singapore/etc, it can never work in this country.

This country has undeniably made horrendous mistakes in the management of the virus response
over the past 12 months, but when people on social media moan that "we should have used test/
trace/isolate to get cases down to a manageable level last year", they are being delusional.





MARK
 

edwin_m

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Spot on - it's like trying to find a needle in a haystack when the haystack is on fire!! :smile:

Effective Track and Trace requires both extremely low prevalence and 100% honesty/adherence,
backed up by punitive penalties and an authoritarian/heavy handed regime, but as this is the UK,
not South Korea/Singapore/etc, it can never work in this country.

This country has undeniably made horrendous mistakes in the management of the virus response
over the past 12 months, but when people on social media moan that "we should have used test/
trace/isolate to get cases down to a manageable level last year", they are being delusional.
So are you saying we should have used a longer lockdown instead?
 

brad465

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Brisbane is next up in the snap lockdown over a handful of cases "game" (their third lockdown in the pandemic so far):


The Australian city of Brisbane will enter another snap three-day lockdown to contain a coronavirus outbreak which has grown to seven cases.
The Queensland state capital - home to over two million residents - will begin the lockdown at 17:00 Monday local time (06:00 GMT).
In January, the city also shut down for three days due to a single case.
The city has seen very few locally acquired cases since Australia's first wave of the virus a year ago.
The Brisbane outbreak, first reported on Saturday, have seen the first cases of community transmission in Australia in almost a month.
Health officials are yet to determine how the virus leaked into the community, but say it is potentially linked to a hospital doctor who was infectious two weeks ago.
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said the discovery of four more local cases, reported on Monday, had raised concerns about "more community transmission".
A lockdown was necessary to help contact tracers contain the spread, she said.

"I know it is really tough. We have Easter coming up, we have school holidays coming up," she said at a press conference on Monday.
"But let's do it now and let's do it right and let's see if we can come through it at the other end."
The lockdown will affect the Greater Brisbane area, which includes the councils of Brisbane, Logan, Moreton Bay, Ipswich and Redlands.
As with previous lockdowns, people will only be able to leave their homes for four essential reasons: exercise, shopping, necessary work and caregiving.
Schools and workplaces will be closed as well as non-essential businesses and services.
Elsewhere across Queensland, residents will also have to wear face masks again in shops and on public transport, and home gatherings will be limited to 30 people.
Ms Palaszczuk said: "This is essential everyone that we do this to stop further transmission. We've seen what's happened in other countries. I don't want to see that happen to Queensland."
Australia has reported just over 29,000 cases and 909 deaths since the pandemic began - a number far lower than many nations.
 

yorkie

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I predict they may have to do this a lot more in the winter.

In the end once most people are vaccinated they will give up trying to keep the virus out and it'll become another seasonal endemic coronavirus, same as everywhere else

That's my prediction based on what most experts are saying.
 

brad465

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I predict they may have to do this a lot more in the winter.

In the end once most people are vaccinated they will give up trying to keep the virus out and it'll become another seasonal endemic coronavirus, same as everywhere else

That's my prediction based on what most experts are saying.
Yes I believe Melbourne's 112 day lockdown was that long in part because it occurred throughout their winter period last year, so once it got a foothold in the community the best the lockdown could have done was dampen it down, but not eliminate it.
 
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Yes I believe Melbourne's 112 day lockdown was that long in part because it occurred throughout their winter period last year, so once it got a foothold in the community the best the lockdown could have done was dampen it down, but not eliminate it.

The state of Victoria went 40 days without a case which counts as elimination. The first case after that period was found in hotel quarantine.
 

yorkie

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Elimination can only ever be temporary.

Also I'm not convinced every case is going to be found.

Given most are either very mild or asymptomatic, you could easily go weeks or months with low levels of undetected community spread.
 

brad465

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Hearing all the recent reports that Australia may not be able to reopen its borders even once everyone is vaccinated (with isolation for all of 2022 being touted as well), I do wonder at what point for them the penny drops about how unsustainable what they in particular are doing is? Australia of course has a sizeable population of UK citizens (I have a Uni friend out there and one of my colleague's daughters is as well for example), who are all going to want to visit at some point, with some maybe even wanting to return properly if they're not long term residents. As they go into winter they could well see more snap lockdowns if infections leak into the community, or even worse a Melbourne style lockdown lasting for months.

Then there's the tourism industry impacts as well, and if come the 2022 Australian elections they're not opened up but much of the world is, Scott Morrison could have a very challenging re-election bid if opposition parties call for an end to all this.
 

Cdd89

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I see Australia is imposing an outright travel ban on Australian nationals entering Australia if they have been in India in the past 14 days. What a nice reaction; what they’re effectively saying is that some other third country needs to deal with accommodating an Australian citizen for two weeks.

There are often people keen for the U.K. to copy their policies, as with hotel quarantine which is enforced by surprisingly few western countries; I expect calls to copy this will be next.

More importantly, it’s a tacit admission by the Australian government that, short of an travel ban (by the very definition of the word), zero-Covid is not maintainable without constant last-minute lockdowns. It would be good if covid zero advocates here also recognised that.
 

Reliablebeam

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There's quite a reasonable number of Australians and Kiwis working at my outfit, all of whom are basically settled permanently in the UK, raising families here and married Brits. They are all in despair with this and have no idea when they can get back for a visit, or if their parents can come over and see the grandkids. But they also tell me these border closures are very, very popular within these two countries....
 

kristiang85

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There's quite a reasonable number of Australians and Kiwis working at my outfit, all of whom are basically settled permanently in the UK, raising families here and married Brits. They are all in despair with this and have no idea when they can get back for a visit, or if their parents can come over and see the grandkids. But they also tell me these border closures are very, very popular within these two countries....

It would be interesting to see what the non city folk think of it. I.e. those who work in tourism (a huge sector in both countries) or agriculture, who rely on cheap backpacker labour.
 

philosopher

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It looks like Australia still has not found a sustainable way out of the Covid-19 Pandemic. From today the Australian state of Victoria has entered a 7 day lockdown due to an outbreak of 26 cases in its capital Melbourne.
Australia's second most populous state Victoria will enter a seven-day lockdown to counter a fast-spreading outbreak in its capital, Melbourne.
The lockdown will begin at midnight on Thursday (14:00 GMT).
Authorities have so far found 26 cases, and identified 150 sites where people may have been exposed to the virus.
There is growing anxiety over the outbreak which reminds many locals of a devastating second wave that swept the state last year.
Victoria's acting Premier James Merlino said the outbreak involved a highly contagious strain of the virus, the B.1.617 variant. A returned traveller was infected with the strain, which Mr Merlino said was spreading "faster than we have ever recorded".
 

yorkie

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If they insist on 'zero Covid' they will need to remain locked down for the next 5 months at least (depending on seasonality issues and vaccination progress) which is unsustainable.

'zero Covid' is a fallacy.
 

DustyBin

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Going back to the thread title, "they don't have one" appears to be the answer....

Even once they've sorted out their vaccination programme, how are they going to come to terms with the fact that people will still contract covid and some will die? How long are the populations of these countries willing to live as they are? Another year? Five years? Forever? It just doesn't look sustainable to me but I can't see any way out for them now to be honest!
 

brad465

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It looks like Australia still has not found a sustainable way out of the Covid-19 Pandemic. From today the Australian state of Victoria has entered a 7 day lockdown due to an outbreak of 26 cases in its capital Melbourne.
Last year Melbourne locked down for 112 days, nearly 1/3 of the year. 26 cases could be a lot right now if this is enough to see another wave take off that leads to a similar situation to last year.
 

WelshBluebird

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Last year Melbourne locked down for 112 days, nearly 1/3 of the year. 26 cases could be a lot right now if this is enough to see another wave take off that leads to a similar situation to last year.
And as a comparison how many days of the year was say London or Leicester in lockdown for? Probably more!
 

island

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And as a comparison how many days of the year was say London or Leicester in lockdown for? Probably more!
It depends on your definition of “lockdown”. If one looks at the number of days in 2020 on which any part of the UK was subject to a law prohibiting leaving home without reasonable excuse, it was 94. For London, it was 106.

If you use a different definition you will of course get a different answer.
 

brad465

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And as a comparison how many days of the year was say London or Leicester in lockdown for? Probably more!

It depends on your definition of “lockdown”. If one looks at the number of days in 2020 on which any part of the UK was subject to a law prohibiting leaving home without reasonable excuse, it was 94. For London, it was 106.

If you use a different definition you will of course get a different answer.
It's now being reported Glasgow has had some form of heavy restrictions for 270 days.

Apparently Victoria has 10,000 primary and secondary contacts of cases and 150 sites where people have been exposed, as stated in the article shared above by the BBC. This doesn't look promising for a quick containment, even if only 1/10 of contacts actually have it.
 

Pakenhamtrain

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It's now being reported Glasgow has had some form of heavy restrictions for 270 days.

Apparently Victoria has 10,000 primary and secondary contacts of cases and 150 sites where people have been exposed, as stated in the article shared above by the BBC. This doesn't look promising for a quick containment, even if only 1/10 of contacts actually have it.
15,000 now. it might seem like a large number but there's a lot of ring fencing going on.

That's the list of every exposure place. 101 are listed as Tier 1.

In it are two AFL games. The Collingwood vs Port Adelaide and Essendon vs North Melbourne.
 

LAX54

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Going back to the thread title, "they don't have one" appears to be the answer....

Even once they've sorted out their vaccination programme, how are they going to come to terms with the fact that people will still contract covid and some will die? How long are the populations of these countries willing to live as they are? Another year? Five years? Forever? It just doesn't look sustainable to me but I can't see any way out for them now to be honest!
Does it not also sort of say, that you can shut the borders to the rest of the World for a year or more, but it will still find a way in ? Is a severe lockdown, just not prolonging the agony? bit like you can run, but you can't hide forever,
 

DustyBin

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Does it not also sort of say, that you can shut the borders to the rest of the World for a year or more, but it will still find a way in ? Is a severe lockdown, just not prolonging the agony? bit like you can run, but you can't hide forever,

Yes, I think it’s a form of denial to be honest. We still have people here spouting “zero covid” nonsense which is absolutely mind boggling at this stage of proceedings!
 

LAX54

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Yes, I think it’s a form of denial to be honest. We still have people here spouting “zero covid” nonsense which is absolutely mind boggling at this stage of proceedings!
it will never be zero, well not for some decades yet anyway, as for the UK colour scheme, it needs to be Green and Red, dump the amber, but even then green may well be just as 'iffy' as red !
 

Pakenhamtrain

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Expect an extension to Victoria's 7 day lockdown. They are ****ting bricks over this Indian variant.

Does it not also sort of say, that you can shut the borders to the rest of the World for a year or more, but it will still find a way in ? Is a severe lockdown, just not prolonging the agony? bit like you can run, but you can't hide forever,
it finds it's way in because we use a not fit for purpose means of housing people. Hotels are not designed for the task.
 

brad465

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Expect an extension to Victoria's 7 day lockdown. They are ****ting bricks over this Indian variant
There certainly seems to be concern about how this is spreading, according to this article:


The Covid-19 variant in Victoria’s outbreak is seemingly being transmitted between people during “fleeting”, casual and limited contact, leaving health authorities concerned that the virus is spreading differently than during previous outbreaks.

Senior government ministers and health officials met on Tuesday night to discuss a potential extension of the state’s seven-day lockdown into the weekend.

New South Wales health authorities at the same time revealed a positive Melbourne case visited Jervis Bay, Hyams Beach, Vincentia and Goulburn while potentially infectious on 23 and 24 May.

“This is stranger-to-stranger transmission” being experienced in Melbourne, the Victorian Covid-19 testing commander, Jeroen Weimar, said earlier on Tuesday, with 54 active cases now in the state including three new cases identified overnight.

“We have at least four incidents where people unknown to each other before have transmitted to each other. What we’re seeing now is people are brushing past each other in a small shop, they are going to a display home, they are looking at phones in a Telstra shop, and this relatively speaking fleeting contact [is enough to spread the virus].

“That is very different from what we have seen before. This is the biggest outbreak we’ve seen in Australia this year. It is certainly the fastest-moving outbreak we’ve seen anywhere in Australia for a long time. I’m not taking this lightly.”
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...w-many-aged-care-workers-have-been-vaccinated
Every case has been genomically linked to the original case, a man who caught the virus on his final day in hotel quarantine in South Australia on 4 May before returning to his home in Wollert, Victoria, the same day.

When someone tests positive a sample of the virus is sent to a laboratory where staff identify the code of the virus from that person. This code is compared with the code from other cases as they are identified. Samples with the same code are all linked as part of the same genomic cluster.

Every exposure site the Wollert man had visited had been confirmed and checked repeatedly, Weimar said, including his workplace, with contacts of concern tested and isolating. But while all of the cases had been linked genomically, health workers had not been able to determine how the virus spread from the man to Whittlesea, where there are 28 positive cases, and Port Melbourne, where there are 23 positive cases.

“We are absolutely clear that there is a missing link between this individual and the subsequent outbreak that we have seen and Whittlesea and Port Melbourne,” Weimar said.

This ultimately comes back to the notion that eventually nature will win over us no matter how hard we try to hold it off.
 

Jonny

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Does it not also sort of say, that you can shut the borders to the rest of the World for a year or more, but it will still find a way in ? Is a severe lockdown, just not prolonging the agony? bit like you can run, but you can't hide forever,

Yes, I think it’s a form of denial to be honest. We still have people here spouting “zero covid” nonsense which is absolutely mind boggling at this stage of proceedings!

That is something that Britain is about to run up against. Sadly the level of vaccination needed to achieve herd immunity is near impossible.

Expect an extension to Victoria's 7 day lockdown. They are ****ting bricks over this Indian variant.


it finds it's way in because we use a not fit for purpose means of housing people. Hotels are not designed for the task.

Short of various measures that look like C**************n C**mps or Gulags, it isn't going to work. Also, it may even be on the surface of fresh food.

There certainly seems to be concern about how this is spreading, according to this article:




This ultimately comes back to the notion that eventually nature will win over us no matter how hard we try to hold it off.

Eventually, they are just going to have no choice but to let it run, the same as everywhere else.
 
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