What is the Covid-19 Exit Strategy of 'Zero Covid' countries such as Hong Kong?

[kristiang85]

Well this made me laugh: https://twitter.com/ChinaUncensored/status/1522173416039718913

(video shows Chinese COVID workers PCR testing a.... chicken)

 

[ainsworth74]

Well this made me laugh: https://twitter.com/ChinaUncensored/status/1522173416039718913

(video shows Chinese COVID workers PCR testing a.... chicken)

There's a certain irony to this which if it wasn't so sad would be funny. I recall when this all started we were sharing videos of China going mental with their Covid response and chuckling at the silly Chinese Communist Parties over-reaction. And now here we are again, two years later, again laughing at videos of the Chinese Communist Parties over-reaction.

 

[Bantamzen]

Apparently in Shanghai weeks after the lockdown / imprisonment began, they are starting to think about a gradual relaxation but not before they have disinfected the entire city. Not sure what will happen when it rains next and poisons all their water courses, let alone what will happen when those "plague carriers" (as someone described humans on a Twitter feed a bit back) start to interact again.....

 

[Eyersey468]

Well this made me laugh: https://twitter.com/ChinaUncensored/status/1522173416039718913

(video shows Chinese COVID workers PCR testing a.... chicken)

If only the chickens had worn masks and socially distanced this could have been avoided

 

[Yew]

If only the chickens had worn masks and socially distanced this could have been avoided

That's a paltry poultry excuse!

 

[Bantamzen]

That's a paltry poultry excuse!

Stop it, just stop the fowl jokes!

 

[kristiang85]

Stop it, just stop the fowl jokes!

I thought it was eggcelent.

 

[Bantamzen]

I thought it was eggcelent.

Its no yoke you know...

(Sorry mods)

 

[DustyBin]

Its no yoke you know...

(Sorry mods)

Any more and they’ll be having a word in your shell!

 

[nw1]

Apparently in Shanghai weeks after the lockdown / imprisonment began, they are starting to think about a gradual relaxation but not before they have disinfected the entire city. Not sure what will happen when it rains next and poisons all their water courses, let alone what will happen when those "plague carriers" (as someone described humans on a Twitter feed a bit back) start to interact again.....

It brings to mind a cartoon of all life on Earth being wiped out by a cloud of hydrogen cyanide, and some politicians up in a spaceship rejoicing and cracking open the champagne, with the caption "Hooray! At last we've eliminated Covid!"

 

[brad465]

North Korea has now ordered its first covid lockdown:

North Korea: 'First' Covid cases prompt strict national lockdown

North Korea has rejected any kind of vaccine, with Kim Jong-un now ordering "maximum emergency" controls.

www.bbc.co.uk

North Korea has ordered a strict national lockdown after confirming its first official Covid infections.
State media have reported an Omicron outbreak in the capital, Pyongyang, but did not state the number of cases.
North Korea has rejected any kind of vaccine programme, even when offered a supply by other countries.
Instead, it controlled Covid by sealing its borders - and had never recorded a case, despite experts believing the virus has long been present.
Outsiders say the nation's 25 million population is vulnerable due to the lack of a Covid-19 vaccine programme, even rejecting offers from the international community to supply millions of AstraZeneca and Chinese-made Sinovac jabs last year.
There have also been concerns about North Korea's impoverished healthcare system.
KCNA said leader Kim Jong-un had vowed to eradicate the outbreak, which it called a "severe national emergency" that had breached the country's "quarantine front".
At the meeting outlining the new Covid rules, Mr Kim was seen wearing a face mask on television for what is believed to be the first time. He soon removed it, while other officials present kept theirs on.

North Korea's strategy of sealing its foreign borders - one of the first countries to do so, in January 2020 - has also stopped essential supplies from entering the country, leading to food shortages and a faltering economy.

On Thursday, KCNA said Mr Kim had ordered "maximum emergency" virus controls, which appeared to include orders for localised lockdowns and gathering restrictions in workplaces.
The North Korean news outlet added that the first case of the Omicron variant had been reportedly detected in the capital four days ago.
Residents in some areas of Pyongyang had been subjected to lockdown for at least two days before the latest announcement, according to NK News, a Seoul-based monitoring site.
South Korea's government said it has renewed its offer of humanitarian assistance to the North in response to the news of the outbreak. Pyongyang has yet to respond.

 

[Bantamzen]

North Korea has now ordered its first covid lockdown:

North Korea: 'First' Covid cases prompt strict national lockdown

North Korea has rejected any kind of vaccine, with Kim Jong-un now ordering "maximum emergency" controls.

www.bbc.co.uk

Proof, if ever it were needed that those people around the world who called for national borders to be sealed to stop the spread were misled into believing such a measure could ever hope to work. Even the most rigorously controlled borders can and are penetrated, viruses do not respect the lines in the ground that we draw. Zero covid my arse!

Sadly for the people of North Korea, their dictatorship's irrational approach & refusal to accept help even from China will mean that they will be amongst the hardest hit countries in the world.

 

[Eyersey468]

Proof, if ever it were needed that those people around the world who called for national borders to be sealed to stop the spread were misled into believing such a measure could ever hope to work. Even the most rigorously controlled borders can and are penetrated, viruses do not respect the lines in the ground that we draw. Zero covid my arse!

Sadly for the people of North Korea, their dictatorship's irrational approach & refusal to accept help even from China will mean that they will be amongst the hardest hit countries in the world.

I completely agree. The best they would have achieved is delaying the virus entering the country and they should have used that time to get people vaccinated

 

[Berliner]

I find it very hard to believe that North Korea is only just now experiencing it's first cases of Covid. There must be another reason they are locking down now, or at least choosing to tell the world now that they are locking down.

 

[Tracked]

I find it very hard to believe that North Korea is only just now experiencing it's first cases of Covid. There must be another reason they are locking down now, or at least choosing to tell the world now that they are locking down.

North Korea announces first death from Covid-19

A day after confirming its first cases, state media reports thousands are suffering fever symptoms.

www.bbc.co.uk

"But in an update on Friday, the official KCNA news agency reported that the outbreak extended beyond the capital. "A fever whose cause couldn't be identified spread explosively nationwide from late April," it said.
Around 350,000 people had shown signs of that fever, it added, without specifying how many had tested positive for Covid."

If it isn't the first case then maybe it's the first time it's gotten so badly out of control that they're unable to deny it's happened, perhaps after two years they got complacent?

 

[brad465]

Kim Jong-un now admitting their covid outbreak is "a great disaster", with 'reported deaths' up to 27:

North Korea: Covid outbreak a great disaster, says Kim Jong-un

North Korea's leader blames the outbreak on bureaucratic and medical incompetence.

www.bbc.co.uk

North Korea's rapidly spreading Covid-19 outbreak is a "great disaster" for the country, its leader Kim Jong-un has said, according to state media.
Mr Kim called for an all-out battle to tackle the spread of the virus during an emergency meeting on Saturday.
It comes after officials announced the first confirmed cases on Thursday - although experts believe the virus has likely been circulating for some time.
There are fears a major outbreak could have dire consequences in North Korea.
Its population of 25 million is vulnerable due to the lack of a vaccination programme and poor healthcare system.
And on Saturday, state media reported that there had been half a million cases of unexplained fever in recent weeks. The country has limited testing capabilities so most Covid cases are not confirmed.
That figure marked a major increase on the numbers given on both Friday and Thursday, potentially providing some indication of the scale of North Korea's outbreak.
"The spread of the malignant epidemic is [the greatest] turmoil to fall on our country since the founding," the official KCNA news agency quoted Mr Kim as saying.
He blamed the crisis on bureaucratic and medical incompetence, and suggested lessons could be learnt from the response of countries like neighbouring China.

State media reports that 27 people have died since April after suffering a fever.
The reports do not say whether they tested positive for Covid, apart from one death in the capital Pyongyang which was confirmed to be a case of the Omicron variant.

The unprecedented admission on Thursday marked the end of two years of North Korean claims to be free of Covid.
The secretive country rejected offers from the international community to supply millions of AstraZeneca and Chinese-made jabs last year. Instead, it claimed it had controlled Covid by sealing its borders early in January 2020.
It shares land borders with South Korea and China, which have both battled outbreaks. China is now struggling to contain an Omicron wave with lockdowns in its biggest cities.
At a meeting outlining new Covid rules on Thursday, Mr Kim was seen wearing a face mask on television for what was believed to be the first time.
He ordered "maximum emergency" virus controls, which appeared to include orders for local lockdowns and gathering restrictions in workplaces.
South Korea has said it offered humanitarian aid after Thursday's announcement, but Pyongyang is yet to respond.

 

[Eyersey468]

Kim Jong-un now admitting their covid outbreak is "a great disaster", with 'reported deaths' up to 27:

North Korea: Covid outbreak a great disaster, says Kim Jong-un

North Korea's leader blames the outbreak on bureaucratic and medical incompetence.

www.bbc.co.uk

I wonder what their death toll actually is, I'm sure it's more than 27

 

[brad465]

I wonder what their death toll actually is, I'm sure it's more than 27

It probably is much higher, as even if they were not deliberately hiding information, I suspect they don't have the ability to identify and test everyone who maybe affected there.

 

[3rd rail land]

It probably is much higher, as even if they were not deliberately hiding information, I suspect they don't have the ability to identify and test everyone who maybe affected there.

They definitely won't have the resource to test everyone showing symptoms. They closed their border very early on in 2020 and then effectively stuck their fingers in their ears and went la la la and pretended they were Covid proof as they had closed their border.

 

[nw1]

Knowing how eye-wateringly authoritarian North Korea is, it woudn't surprise me if they implement exceedingly harsh lockdown measures. Woe betide anyone who doesn't stay at home, I suspect (although going out for Kim-worship will be allowed, of course).

 

[Cdd89]

I see Hong Kong’s cases have slowed decreasing (and recently increased). You can’t actually see them on a zoomed-out chart due to their astonishingly high peak, but they never got particularly low in terms of ‘Zero Covid’.


Image: Chart from Our World In Data showing daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people in Hong Kong, decreasing by a smaller amount each day between April 21 and May 13 2022, with an increase on May 14th.

I think how they react to this will be a key moment in terms of whether they continue as a ‘zero covid’ country.

This doesn’t seem very promising though:

Hong Kong scrambles to trace diners as new Covid cluster emerges at restaurant

Health authorities say at least 30 infections have been detected among diners and staff at Sky Cuisine restaurant in Sheung Wan, with one of the customers aged 117.

scmp.com

Coronavirus: Hong Kong to stick with ‘dynamic-zero’ strategy, health minister says as officials scramble to trace diners after new cluster emerges

- Health authorities say at least 30 infections detected among diners, staff at Sky Cuisine in Sheung Wan, with one of the customers aged 117

- Cluster is the third to be reported over the past two days, following infections at a public housing estate in Kennedy Town and a billiards centre in Hung Hom

It reminds me of the U.K.’s attempts to desperately trace clusters in summer 2020, when we deluded ourselves that our low case numbers were our doing rather than the natural progression of the virus which had reached high levels of localised immunity.

 

[ainsworth74]

Well one way or another it's likely to be all over quite quickly in North Korea, they're now reporting one million cases of "fever" in the country:

North Korea: More than a million Covid cases feared​

North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un has lambasted health officials and ordered the army to help distribute medicine, as a wave of Covid cases sweeps through the country.

More than a million people have now been sickened by what Pyongyang is calling a "fever", state media said.

Some 50 people have died, but it's unclear how many of those suspected cases tested positive for Covid.

North Korea has only limited testing capacity, so few cases are confirmed.

North Koreans are likely to be especially vulnerable to the virus due to lack of vaccinations and a poor healthcare system. A nationwide lockdown is in place in the reclusive country.

State media said Mr Kim led an emergency politburo meeting at the weekend where he accused officials of bungling the distribution of the national medicine reserves.

He ordered that the "powerful forces" of the army's medical corps step in to "immediately stabilise the supply of medicines in Pyongyang City".

The country announced its first confirmed Covid cases last week - although experts believe the virus has likely been circulating for some time.

Mr Kim has imposed "maximum emergency" virus controls, including lockdowns and gathering restrictions in workplaces.

The international community offered to supply North Korea with millions of AstraZeneca and Chinese-made jabs last year, but Pyongyang claimed it had controlled Covid by sealing its borders early in January 2020.

...

North Korea: More than a million Covid cases feared

The military has been ordered to intervene as a wave of Covid cases sweeps the unvaccinated country.

www.bbc.co.uk

Can't help but feel we'll never know how many people actually died of it in North Korea but I fear it's going to be substantial. Most galling thing is that they were offered vaccines last year but turned them down as they "didn't need them". The dictatorships hubris, which already kills either accidently or on purpose, plenty of North Korea citizens is likely to get a lot more of them killed.

It's interesting that Kim seems to be going hard on blaming "officials" on "bungling" things. Perhaps trying to head off anyone getting any bright ideas that perhaps this Kim fella isn't all that after all.

 

[Cloud Strife]

It's a pity that North Korea is so closed, actually. It would be interesting to know how it affects them, because it would give us an idea of what happens when Omicron runs riot in an unvaccinated population.

 

[DustyBin]

It's a pity that North Korea is so closed, actually. It would be interesting to know how it affects them, because it would give us an idea of what happens when Omicron runs riot in an unvaccinated population.

It’s worth remembering though that it’s a malnourished population absent proper healthcare, so not really a like for like comparison with the UK for example.

 

[Cloud Strife]

It’s worth remembering though that it’s a malnourished population absent proper healthcare, so not really a like for like comparison with the UK for example.

Yes, true. It's why it would be intriguing to know exactly how it affects them, because I find it fascinating that Covid hit Europe far more than it did in Africa.

 

[Freightmaster]

...I find it fascinating that Covid hit Europe far more than it did in Africa.

Isn't that because Covid mainly kills the elderly and/or obese and:


a) the average age (and life expectancy) is far lower in African countries.

b) obesity is almost unheard of in Africa whereas it's a huge issues in Europe/USA.





MARK

 

[Dent]

Isn't that because Covid mainly kills the elderly and/or obese and:


a) the average age (and life expectancy) is far lower in African countries.

b) obesity is almost unheard of in Africa whereas it's a huge issues in Europe/USA.





MARK

You could probably add c) We don't really know whether it did hit Europe more than Africa. It could be that less was reported about it in Africa because there are other, more serious issues there.

 

[hst43102]

Isn't that because Covid mainly kills the elderly and/or obese and:


a) the average age (and life expectancy) is far lower in African countries.

b) obesity is almost unheard of in Africa whereas it's a huge issues in Europe/USA.





MARK

Also, Covid spreads most rapidly in urban areas and in places where people travel to and from different areas a lot. Much of Africa is relatively rural and with relatively little travel between towns, but I am very surprised that some of the larger cities like Nairobi and Lagos weren't affected anywhere near as badly as similar sized cities in Europe and India.

 

[kristiang85]

Yes, true. It's why it would be intriguing to know exactly how it affects them, because I find it fascinating that Covid hit Europe far more than it did in Africa.

We completely overtested in Europe, whereas many countries in AFrica couldn't fund such an extensive testing programme or, frankly, didn't see it as a priority over other problems.

However, other possibilities are less obesity (we know COVID hit the obese particularly hard), a younger population, a warmer climate, and stronger immune systems.

 

[Ediswan]

b) obesity is almost unheard of in Africa whereas it's a huge issues in Europe/USA.

Maybe true once, but no longer. Here is one of many articles about the problem.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...-one-five-adults-africa-late-2023-swho-warns/

Obesity set to impact one in five adults in Africa by late 2023, WHO warns​

Lifestyle and diets are shifting dramatically across the continent, raising concerns of a 'ticking time bomb' of obesity