When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson

NorthOxonian

Established Member
Joined
5 Jul 2018
Messages
1,336
Location
Oxford/Newcastle
Told you: Claim he was mislead, sack a few underlings, maybe a toothless enquiry, vaccine roll out. Captain Hindsight. levelling up, peoples priorities, wibble

Playing politics seems to be the line. Floundering.
It does feel like a turning point though. When the story first came out I thought it'd be nothing, but the way it's been handled has made its consequences far worse. It has angered a lot of people and even many well outside the political bubble are aware of it.

Next Thursday will be interesting - the by-election in North Shropshire is looking fairly competitive between the Conservatives and Lib Dems. If there's a lot of disillusionment with the government, then I imagine a lot of Tory voters will just abstain - possibly enough to lose them the seat.

If any restrictions come in, then some voters will also move towards the Reform Party - perhaps only 5% or so, but enough to make a Tory defence even harder.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

GusB

Established Member
Associate Staff
Buses & Coaches
Joined
9 Jul 2016
Messages
4,350
Location
Elginshire
What's worth mentioning is the controversial Policing Bill is in the final Lords reading today, where Priti Patel snuck in a load more controversial protesting crimes without parliamentary scrutiny. While this latest party bombshell is not good news for the Government, it's a good distraction for passing a bill that will prevent people protesting about the party and/or anything else.
Yes, this is the perfect material for burying bad news. There has been very little news coverage of the changes to the bill that Patel has added. Maybe people don't care because they think it will only apply to people who join hands to block a road.
 
Last edited:

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
4,532
Location
Maidstone
Yes, this is the perfect material for burying bad news. There has been very little news coverage or the changes to the bill that Patel has added. Maybe people don't care because they think it will only apply to people who join hands to block a road.
"First they came for..."

Also the terms of the bill are so vague that anyone who is not actually intending to protest, but is believed to either be about to or going to a protest, could be arrested/stopped and searched. This could very easily include someone innocently walking past Parliament in a way the Police suspect could be attend a protest, even if they're a loyal Government supporter with no intention of protesting against them on anything.
 

AM9

Veteran Member
Joined
13 May 2014
Messages
11,539
Location
St Albans
Told you: Claim he was mislead, sack a few underlings, maybe a toothless enquiry, vaccine roll out. Captain Hindsight. levelling up, peoples priorities, wibble

Playing politics seems to be the line. Floundering.
Agree with all that. What is does expose is the naïvity of those who follow him. They see him trash the economy, deliberately antagonise allies that we need for economic survival and (obviously) they swallow all the lies and half-truths that the administration proffer. The only hope is that gradually, the scales fall from their eyes.
 

dosxuk

Member
Joined
2 Jan 2011
Messages
1,102
Agree with all that. What is does expose is the naïvity of those who follow him. They see him trash the economy, deliberately antagonise allies that we need for economic survival and (obviously) they swallow all the lies and half-truths that the administration proffer. The only hope is that gradually, the scales fall from their eyes.
But he got Brexit done so he can do no wrong.

Trash the economy? Nobody said we were going to get rich from Brexiting, well not until we start paying people in sovrenity right!

And as for antagonising allies, well as long as he's winding the French up on a weekly basis, he's doing a proper good job!

But, sure, he lies, but so do all politicians. If they all told the truth then they wouldn't be doing that job, amiright?

So, they had a party, well, wouldn't we all if we had the chance and knew that the police were acting as bouncers rather than going to come knocking on the door with a big fine? I'm sure they were working anyway, so even if they were drinking wine while running the country, it doesn't count as a party. Even if there was cheese and secret santa. If Boris is happy, everyone should be happy - he got brexit done just like he said.




But seriously for a moment, even with Boris' apology, they've gone and dropped themselves in it again already. They now won't confirm or deny that the cabinet secretary was present at the party - the guy who's just been appointed to investigate if a party happened and if any rules were broken. Pretty simple to say he wasn't at the party if he wasn't, but if he was, then how on earth can you get him to investigate it. Although as the Mirror put it, in that case he would be a good source of who was actually there...
 

nlogax

Established Member
Joined
29 May 2011
Messages
4,273
Location
Scotland & London
While that was a dreadful performance by Johnson at PMQs it was an entirely predictable next step from 'there wasn't a party but all guidelines were followed anyway'.

As it stands this doesn't put him in any danger as PM. If other more substantive claims or clip / photo leaks from other events were to emerge from a year ago then maybe, just maybe that will change.
 

Senex

Established Member
Joined
1 Apr 2014
Messages
2,616
Location
York
Agree with all that. What is does expose is the naïvity of those who follow him. They see him trash the economy, deliberately antagonise allies that we need for economic survival and (obviously) they swallow all the lies and half-truths that the administration proffer. The only hope is that gradually, the scales fall from their eyes.
The scales won't fall from their eyes till the see his staying on as risking losing them their seats at an election, and at the moment there still doesn't seem much chance of that as the upturn in Labour's fortunes in the polls still seems pretty weak. Perhaps if they lose several safe-seat by-elections ..., but what are the chances of that if the opposition parties can'r get together to get the Tories out?
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
4,532
Location
Maidstone
The scales won't fall from their eyes till the see his staying on as risking losing them their seats at an election, and at the moment there still doesn't seem much chance of that as the upturn in Labour's fortunes in the polls still seems pretty weak. Perhaps if they lose several safe-seat by-elections ..., but what are the chances of that if the opposition parties can'r get together to get the Tories out?
The odds for the North Shropshire by-election next week now have the Lib Dems and Tories neck and neck around evens; this seat was 64% Tory in 2019.
 

Typhoon

Established Member
Joined
2 Nov 2017
Messages
2,408
Location
Kent
Dominic Cummings has claimed a lockdown party took place in the Downing Street flat on the same day he was sacked from his job as the Prime Minister’s chief advisor.

Mr Cummings suggested the investigation should also look at parties he claimed had taken place in the Prime Minister’s own Downing Street flat, including one he alleged happened on November 13 when the country was in the grip of a second national lockdown.

He tweeted: “Will the [Cabinet Secretary] also be asked to investigate the *flat* party on Fri 13 Nov, the other flat parties, and the flat’s ‘bubble’ policy.”

I know that Cummings has his own history but he will always get an audience (just like Farage), mainly because he knows where at least some of the bodies are buried and is a good communicator. He is going to milk his 16 months as Chief of Staff until he has extracted the last drop.
(https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/news...on-day-he-was-sacked/ar-AARBzda?ocid=msedgntp)

Johnson has missed a lesson from history:
“Keep your friends close and your enemies closer”
(Sub Zhu)
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
4,532
Location
Maidstone
Both SavantaComRes and Opinium have done snap polls about whether Boris Johnson should resign, and both of them give a majority verdict to say he should resign, even with don't knows/undecided present:

SCR:54% Yes/30% No
Opinium:53% Yes/28% No
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
4,532
Location
Maidstone
I'm starting to think things will only go wrong for Johnson when there are no more people for him to throw under a bus.

Also Douglas Ross believes Johnson should resign if he misled MPs:


Boris Johnson must resign if he misled parliament about a Christmas party at Downing Street, the Scottish Conservative leader has said.
Douglas Ross said there had clearly been a party of some sort, which would have been against Covid rules.
The prime minister has apologised for a video showing Downing Street staff joking about a party last year.
But he said he had been "repeatedly assured" that there was no party and that no rules were broken.
Mr Ross said he had been "angry, annoyed and really disappointed" at the video that emerged on Tuesday night, adding that the affair undermined public trust in the Covid rules.
He said he still had confidence in the prime minister to lead the country, but added it would be "completely unacceptable" if he was found to have misled parliament on the issue.

Mr Ross added: "If the prime minister knew about this party last December, knew about this party last week, and was still denying it, then that is the most serious allegation.
"There is absolutely no way you can mislead parliament and think you could get off with that.
"No one should continue in their post if they mislead parliament in that way."
Labour has questioned Mr Johnson's "moral authority" to lead the country during the pandemic, while the SNP has called for him to resign.
 
Last edited:

Senex

Established Member
Joined
1 Apr 2014
Messages
2,616
Location
York
I'm starting to think things will only go wrong for Johnson when there are no more people for him to throw under a bus.

Also Douglas Ross believes Johnson should resign if he misled MPs:

So why is it that his staff and Tory MPs seem to remain so loyal to Johnson — witness the studious silence of the vast majority of them through the last week — when it's quite clear that he feel no loyalty to others at all and will happily go on chucking them under the bus as long as he can thereby stay in his own job?
 

GusB

Established Member
Associate Staff
Buses & Coaches
Joined
9 Jul 2016
Messages
4,350
Location
Elginshire
I'm starting to think things will only go wrong for Johnson when there are no more people for him to throw under a bus.

Also Douglas Ross believes Johnson should resign if he misled MPs:

Ross only has a majority of 513, so I'm not surprised that he's getting a bit jittery. Still, if he were to lose his Westminster seat he has two other jobs to fall back on.
 

Busaholic

Veteran Member
Joined
7 Jun 2014
Messages
11,600
So why is it that his staff and Tory MPs seem to remain so loyal to Johnson — witness the studious silence of the vast majority of them through the last week — when it's quite clear that he feel no loyalty to others at all and will happily go on chucking them under the bus as long as he can thereby stay in his own job?
The same reason as why Gordon Brown never got properly challenged once David Miliband lost his nerve, and Michael Portillo's rented property in Central London never saw its bank of new landline phones get activated to challenge John Major. There is no obvious successor to Johnson, just a lot of puffed-up nobodies who aren't fit to run a Parish Council in most cases, from the plain nasty Raab and Patel to brown-nosers like Truss, Brandon Lewis and Hancock. Can't help feeling that Jeremy Hunt or Gove would have made a better fist than Johnson of the job, even Jeremy Corbyn (though it'd have been interesting to see if brother Piers piped down!) Nobody with a yearning for power dares to make the first move in case it's their last. Perhaps David Davis should act as stalking horse.
 

jon0844

Veteran Member
Joined
1 Feb 2009
Messages
25,572
Location
UK
Now Allegra Stratton has resigned, Boris has still said there was no party but making it quite clear that that's based on what he's been told (so keeping the option open to make a further apology later when more evidence drops, as well as looking like he had no clue and throwing more people under the bus), and they're on to 'Plan B' it's quite obvious he'll survive this.

When more stuff comes out, as it will, Boris and Co will just say 'Oh, are you STILL going on about this?' and consider it old news.
 
Last edited:

Busaholic

Veteran Member
Joined
7 Jun 2014
Messages
11,600
Now Allegra Stratton has resigned, Boris has still said there was no party
Plus, no covid rules were broken at the-party-that-never-was. How could they have been? <D Lewis Carroll and Jonathan Swift, where are you now when we need you?
 

Typhoon

Established Member
Joined
2 Nov 2017
Messages
2,408
Location
Kent
There is no obvious successor to Johnson, just a lot of puffed-up nobodies who aren't fit to run a Parish Council in most cases, from the plain nasty Raab and Patel to brown-nosers like Truss, Brandon Lewis and Hancock. Can't help feeling that Jeremy Hunt or Gove would have made a better fist than Johnson of the job, even Jeremy Corbyn (though it'd have been interesting to see if brother Piers piped down!) Nobody with a yearning for power dares to make the first move in case it's their last. Perhaps David Davis should act as stalking horse.
They may not be an obvious successor to Johnson but there are probably quite a few who think they are.

Hunt has done himself no harm as Chair of the Health Select Committee. Gove's ambition at least matches Johnson's (and his ability may surpass the PMs - he's also less idle), he's back-stabbed Johnson once before. I reckon that Sunak's star will wane in the next few months as tax rises kick in (and voters work out that his 2020 schemes were not so wonderful) so now may be his hour. Javid may rate his chances. There will always be the Esther McVey's of this world who put themselves forward.

Are any of these better than Johnson? In my opinion, few are worse. (I don't disagree that none are first or even second rate). He got away with things Spring of 2020 because there was sympathy, I would be surprised if that is repeated now. We had the Johnson reboot when he was out-and-about with Merseyside Police, this is now history; that he still appears to be denying what a large number of people appear to think happened, this is not going to go away, his reputation is immutably dented. One sacrificial lamb will not be enough. Stratton may not fight back, others will.
 

dosxuk

Member
Joined
2 Jan 2011
Messages
1,102
Look everyone! It's a little baby girl!

(could have turned up yesterday like...)
 

Gloster

Established Member
Joined
4 Sep 2020
Messages
3,999
Location
Up the creek
Maybe Bojo will resign to spend more time with his family. We can but hope......
Which family? Will someone put him on the spot by asking how many children that makes. (Seven?) More seriously, thar will be half of several press conferences used up by answering questions about the sprog from tame journalists.
 

nw1

Established Member
Joined
9 Aug 2013
Messages
2,868
It was, yet how long has it taken to pick it !

Okehampton was marked as a 'station open for special occasions' on the 1984 edition of the Rail Atlas of Great Britain and Ireland, so yes, given the station never actually fully closed (presumably), it has certainly taken a long while to re-open it!

Surprised it didn't happen earlier: granted it's not the biggest town in the world, but it is a railhead for a large area with no stations, and at certain times of the year has Dartmoor tourism potential.

If the average voter sees that sort of coalition forming, they'll vote Tory even harder. I'm not saying it needs to stay a two party system, but the quickest and 'easiest' solution would be for Labour to get their act together. The other option would be for a true third party to emerge to challenge the other two, and truly use their power when they are needed to form a coalition (throw their weight around).

I'm not sure the "average voter" will necessarily vote Tory, given the Tories have never in modern times got even half the vote. In the last election something like 57% of us voted for someone other than the Tories. Surely the "average voter" should get that a coalition, with a broad range of views, represents more people than a dogmatic majority government.

The problem is the anti-Tory vote is split between Labour and the Lib Dems and some seats will favour one, and some seats will favour another. You won't get Labour winning in St Albans and you won't get the Lib Dems winning in Wigan. So an electoral alliance is more likely to gain more seats than the Tories than the 'Judean People's Front' style Labour-Lib Dem infighting that took place at the last election, due in no small part to two terrible leaders.

And a Lab-Lib Dem coalition would presumably have a stance somewhere between the two parties. Why would the 'average voter' complain about that? While coalitions have their issues, I believe they are fundamentally more democratic (due to a mix of views) than dogmatic majority governments which only represent some of us and alienate the rest of us.
 
Last edited:

DarloRich

Veteran Member
Joined
12 Oct 2010
Messages
26,616
Location
Fenny Stratford
Downing Street parties on 27 November and 18 December, and at the education department on 10 December will be examined for Covid rule breaches now - this is unravelling. How many more?

I wonder who attended

EDIT - I found it interesting that Johnson was seemingly bounced at PMQ into confirming he would release the report on these parties to the police. Seemed just to blurt it out.
 
Last edited:

Typhoon

Established Member
Joined
2 Nov 2017
Messages
2,408
Location
Kent
Partygate is front page of every newspaper, mostly as the lead story. The one I found interesting was in the Daily Mail "Why is it always the woman who carries the can" by Sarah Vine (the soon-to-be ex-Mrs Gove). It isn't, of course, but most of the men who did had to be pushed and were just thoroughly incompetent (Johnson is fortunate that he booted out Williamson for being useless before the DfE party broke). I've always been under the impression that women are more likely to be Tory voters than men (maybe an illusion), this may encourage some to think that maybe, although they are still Conservatives, they are not this Conservative.
A segment of the article:-
The fact that, so far, she is the only member of the team with the balls to take responsibility for this mess by resigning shows us how wrong they are. Aren't they at all ashamed of themselves?

Where is Ed Oldfield, the man who threw her that question, in all of this? Why does it always have to be the woman who carries the can for the mistakes of men?

I am not sure I agree with everything - that laughter did it for her, but Oldfield is just as culpable.

Tomorrow's front pages will be interesting - Johnson mark? will feature, but may not push Partygate off the front page. I suspect Editors (even right-wing ones) scent blood.

Quote from: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/...one-balls-responsibility-mess.html#newcomment
 

dosxuk

Member
Joined
2 Jan 2011
Messages
1,102
I thought the Torygraph asking if it was the "beginning of the end" for Johnson was the stand out front page today. That will certainly have started concerns within the party itself.
 

MattRat

On Moderation
Joined
26 May 2021
Messages
1,443
Location
Liverpool
I'm not sure the "average voter" will necessarily vote Tory, given the Tories have never in modern times got even half the vote. In the last election something like 57% of us voted for someone other than the Tories. Surely the "average voter" should get that a coalition, with a broad range of views, represents more people than a dogmatic majority government.
If the Tories were able to get such a major majority from 43% of the vote, who's to say they haven't been messing with the system to favour them. And if so, they would have done even more of it by now.

A coalition isn't even a guarantee if the deck is stacked enough against them, and this is the Tories we are talking about so.....
 

nw1

Established Member
Joined
9 Aug 2013
Messages
2,868
If the Tories were able to get such a major majority from 43% of the vote, who's to say they haven't been messing with the system to favour them. And if so, they would have done even more of it by now.

A coalition isn't even a guarantee if the deck is stacked enough against them, and this is the Tories we are talking about so.....

The problem with the first past the post system. It simply does not produce a representative result.

One improvement to the system would be larger super-constituencies, comprising say half a county, with say 10 to 15 MPs. So instead of 10 seats with one MP each, you have one seat with 10 MPs divided proportionally based on the vote.

This would make a significant change. For example, South Hampshire (New Forest, Test Valley, Southampton, Eastleigh, Winchester, Meon Valley, Fareham, Gosport, Havant and Portsmouth) currently has 11 Tory MPs, and 2 Labour. If there was a 13-MP South Hampshire superconstituency, then assuming the Tories get about, or marginally over, half the vote in this area (ballpark figure) and Labour and Lib Dem about the same, you might get just 7 Tory MPs, 3 Labour and 3 Lib Dem. 2 non-Tories under FPTP, but 6 under super-constituencies. Would also mean that you are likely to have real representation: if your MP has polar-opposite opinions to you on a range of matters, there's little point even communicating with them. A left-leaning, pro-immigration libertarian in Witham, for instance, essentially has no voice in parliament. Same goes for a remainer in Wellingborough. But if Witham was part of a larger East Essex super-constituency, you're likely to have at least some sympathetic MPs.
 
Last edited:

Top