When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[edwin_m]

Do you think anyone will listen to them if they are the third biggest party with first past the post elections?

A challenge from the right, that would split the normally Tory vote, is actually how Farage levered Cameron into holding the Brexit referendum and triggered this mess in the first place. Who was it that said FPTP produces stable governments?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

A lot of the far right populist politicians (and media) are just in on a massive grift. They can see how poorly educated racists and xenophobes are the perfect marks, and they take advantage to become pretty rich (getting away with it because their supporters turn a blind eye as long as they hear the right things), but eventually it all comes tumbliing down.

I'm afraid posts like this are a big part of the reason why I think the Tories are still going to win the next election, despite all the sleaze and their current resultant drop in the polls. I don't particularly like the current Government, but their voters are not, on the whole, 'poorly educated racists and xenophobes' nor are most Tory MPs 'far right'. In electoral terms, you can probably get away with smearing Tory politicians: Politicians aren't popular so most voters probably don't mind them being smeared. But smearing voters doesn't go down well. In terms of things likely to drive people who voted Tory in 2019 back into the Tories' arms in 2023/24, smearing them with being racist or xenophobic just because of their voting choice must surely be pretty high up.

 

[MattRat]

Do you think anyone will listen to them if they are the third biggest party with first past the post elections?

Well if the other two can't form a government without a coalition......

 

[jon0844]

I'm afraid posts like this are a big part of the reason why I think the Tories are still going to win the next election, despite all the sleaze and their current resultant drop in the polls. I don't particularly like the current Government, but their voters are not, on the whole, 'poorly educated racists and xenophobes' nor are most Tory MPs 'far right'. In electoral terms, you can probably get away with smearing Tory politicians: Politicians aren't popular so most voters probably don't mind them being smeared. But smearing voters doesn't go down well. In terms of things likely to drive people who voted Tory in 2019 back into the Tories' arms in 2023/24, smearing them with being racist or xenophobic just because of their voting choice must surely be pretty high up.

I didn't say all Tory voters, or indeed Tory voters at all. I said people can attract the racists and xenophobics with populist talk, and take advantage of them by telling them what they want to hear. The whole Brexit thing, which throughout was sold to Joe Public as 'taking back control' and dealing with the immigration issues ('breaking point'; yet nothing to do with the EU) got these people to switch from voting Labour to Tory just to 'get Brexit done'.

Today, the key support for Boris seems to be around the fact that he got it done. They care not about just about anything else, until they find out they were lied to. That's when it will come tumbling down, and I expect a lot of swing votes to Conservative will swing back.

I have no issue smearing the racist and xenophobic voters, nor can I see those who aren't being upset. If I upset someone who has racist or xenophobic views, boo hoo. There are clearly plenty of them out there or else you wouldn't have the Express, Daily Mail or GB News etc, and it is voters that decide elections.

 

[The Ham]

The swing towards Tories which happened last election was in areas which don't traditionally vote Tory, those areas which do vote Tory are fed up with cuts.

Locally there's a big push to blame the Lib Dems for a new village being potential put forwards in the local plan, when it is pointed out that the reason it's there is due to Central Government housing targets the those opposing it go very quiet.

I suspect that there's a level of Tory backing of those opposing it as a way of trying to stop people from voting for anyone other than Tory. The comments were very vocal on the run up to elections then go very quiet.

 

[oldman]

The whole Brexit thing, which throughout was sold to Joe Public as 'taking back control' and dealing with the immigration issues ('breaking point'; yet nothing to do with the EU) got these people to switch from voting Labour to Tory just to 'get Brexit done'.

If you are an older red-wall worker with employment horizons confined to low-wage jobs such as driving, warehousing or care work, you may think that the current labour shortages, thanks to Brexit, are quite a good thing. Freedom of movement, excellent in principle, also had a down side, though not for the likes of Sports Direct.

 

[MattRat]

If you are an older red-wall worker with employment horizons confined to low-wage jobs such as driving, warehousing or care work, you may think that the current labour shortages, thanks to Brexit, are quite a good thing. Freedom of movement, excellent in principle, also had a down side, though not for the likes of Sports Direct.

Exactly. It forces companies to pay a living wage, rather than rely on what is effectively a slave labour force.

 

[jon0844]

Exactly. It forces companies to pay a living wage, rather than rely on what is effectively a slave labour force.

The solution was upping the minimum wage, not stopping Polish or Romanian workers coming here to do jobs, as we can see now there are so many vacancies and nobody willing to do the awkward jobs at awkward times and locations.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The solution was upping the minimum wage, not stopping Polish or Romanian workers coming here to do jobs, as we can see now there are so many vacancies and nobody willing to do the awkward jobs at awkward times and locations.

Not really. If you put up the minimum wage, you increase costs in pretty much every industry that employs unskilled/low-skilled workers, as opposed to only the industries that are suffering labour shortages which would indicate that wage increases are appropriate. That means you get a bigger inflationary impact, which ultimately largely cancels out the wage increase while simultaneously damaging the economy. Plus increasing the minimum wage while retaining unrestricted EU migration doesn't do anything to solve the problem of immigrants being willing to work undocumented for less than the minimum wage, thereby undercutting permanent (legal) UK residents who are less likely to be willing to do that: In fact, it would exacerbate that problem.

 

[jon0844]

Plenty of 'natives' are willing* to work off the books. The fact is, there are jobs that people here do not want to do - possibly for any amount of money. We as a nation have been quite happy to import labour to do those jobs, and now we're suffering as a result of those workers not being here.

I get the arguments for/against a minimum wage, but I think we can see that the minimum wage isn't breaking companies. It's about time the average worker gets paid a fair amount given the huge increase in the cost of living and people having a lot, lot less disposable income (income that is likely to be reinvested in the economy by most people other than the rich who can afford to syphon the money off abroad etc).

* Okay, some are not so willing but effectively modern slavery, but that's for another discussion.

 

[nw1]

If you are an older red-wall worker with employment horizons confined to low-wage jobs such as driving, warehousing or care work, you may think that the current labour shortages, thanks to Brexit, are quite a good thing. Freedom of movement, excellent in principle, also had a down side, though not for the likes of Sports Direct.

Except freedom of movement works both ways. It gives us the right to emigrate to the Continent with minimal bureaucracy. And some of us want to do just that, I'm sick to the back teeth with depressing dark, damp British winters.

I am a remainer but if there was a Brexit with freedom of movement, or if a PM better than the blonde liar (who didn't even believe in Brexit anyway, he's not a conviction Brexiter like Swayne or Bone, who are both more worthy of respect) brings freedom of movement back in the future, I wouldn't whinge about it again.

And as for 'respecting the referendum result', given the very narrow margin, the softest of soft Brexits does just that more than any other outcome.

 

[The Ham]

Not really. If you put up the minimum wage, you increase costs in pretty much every industry that employs unskilled/low-skilled workers, as opposed to only the industries that are suffering labour shortages which would indicate that wage increases are appropriate. That means you get a bigger inflationary impact, which ultimately largely cancels out the wage increase while simultaneously damaging the economy. Plus increasing the minimum wage while retaining unrestricted EU migration doesn't do anything to solve the problem of immigrants being willing to work undocumented for less than the minimum wage, thereby undercutting permanent (legal) UK residents who are less likely to be willing to do that: In fact, it would exacerbate that problem.

The problem is that almost every industry now had a shortage of staff.

Now assuming that they didn't leave because of Brexit, what's likely to have happened is any that any staff were put on furlough and were thinking of retiring in the next 2 years have almost certainly left full time work and many likely to retire within the next 5 years would have at least thought about it.

By having left the EU it makes it harder to recruit from the EU, which means that to get good staff companies are looking to increase pay. As you say this will only impact those are industries which are historical low paid and are now suffering from not being able to recruit staff.

One such industry which is matches this which I'm aware of is solicitors. (yes Im being ssarcastic, but they are an industry which is currently suffering staff shortages). Likewise the industry I'm in (road design, which generally pays above the national average) is finding it hard to find staff, it was hard before Covid, but has got a whole lot harder since.

I suspect that is likely to be something which is still in a range of industries and whilst one or two wouldn't impact inflation when it starts to impact on more and more then it's going to have an impact.

 

[nw1]

I really don't understand the fuss about the private jollies at 10 Downing Street pre-Xmas 2020. Opposition to the current Tory government should focus on its policies and actions.

It's the hypocrisy. They impose long and damaging lockdowns on us, and guilt-trip us into not doing exceedingly-low-risk activities such as two-hour-long countryside walks - yet they flout their own rules blatantly.

This kind of arrogance and hypocrisy needs to be called out. They act like particularly obnoxious Roman emperors - I've heard comparisons been made between Johnson and Nero, and they're not wrong.

Just to clarify, 'they' in this context means the Government specifically, and not the Conservative Party in general.

 

[edwin_m]

Not really. If you put up the minimum wage, you increase costs in pretty much every industry that employs unskilled/low-skilled workers, as opposed to only the industries that are suffering labour shortages which would indicate that wage increases are appropriate. That means you get a bigger inflationary impact, which ultimately largely cancels out the wage increase while simultaneously damaging the economy. Plus increasing the minimum wage while retaining unrestricted EU migration doesn't do anything to solve the problem of immigrants being willing to work undocumented for less than the minimum wage, thereby undercutting permanent (legal) UK residents who are less likely to be willing to do that: In fact, it would exacerbate that problem.

I'd say no job should pay less than a certain minimum. Why should British workers miss out if they happen to be doing a job where labour isn't scare?

And isn't increasing the minimum wage in a controlled way less disruptive than leaving it to a labour market that's been destabilised by cutting off the supply from overseas? I don't recall any lorry driver shortages when Osborne increased it...

 

[Butts]

I think a lot of people on here are allowing their excitement at the possible demise of The Conservatives to cloud their judgement.

They are forgetting that said outfit are "The Natural party of Government" (At least where it counts electorally re Westminster in England)

When the next Election comes around no one will be bothered about a few dodgy x-mas party's et al.

What people tell pollsters and actually do in the secrecy of the ballot box (with their wallets in mind) are often different things.

Write them off at your peril, a lot of people did in 1992 and John Major squeezed home.

 

[jon0844]

If Boris goes, I agree they could perhaps retain power - but when people used to accept Boris having a laugh and bumbling along, they won't know as they will associate it as him laughing at them.

Plus when more bad things hit people next year, I think those Labour voters will return to voting Labour. I mean if Brexit got done, why do they need the Tories anymore?

Let's remember that Labour took power in 1997, so it is possible - although probably not with the current leadership. Nevertheless, it's quite some time until the next general election.

I know for one that they lost my vote some years back, so that's one down....

 

[MattRat]

I think a lot of people on here are allowing their excitement at the possible demise of The Conservatives to cloud their judgement.

They are forgetting that said outfit are "The Natural party of Government" (At least where it counts electorally re Westminster in England)

When the next Election comes around no one will be bothered about a few dodgy x-mas party's et al.

What people tell pollsters and actually do in the secrecy of the ballot box (with their wallets in mind) are often different things.

Write them off at your peril, a lot of people did in 1992 and John Major squeezed home.

Well John Major wasn't exactly controversial. I honestly wouldn't mind that type of PM around about now.

 

[Typhoon]

I think a lot of people on here are allowing their excitement at the possible demise of The Conservatives to cloud their judgement.

I would say that 'the demise of The Conservatives' (as the party in government) and the demise of Johnson are two different issues. The Conservatives have a habit of dumping the unelectable in time to regain their electability, I don't see that changing. How much loyalty is shown to someone who has been disloyal to others is questionable.

 

[jon0844]

Well John Major wasn't exactly controversial. I honestly wouldn't mind that type of PM around about now.

I think as time goes on, we'd all tolerate some of the PMs before that were hated on for various reasons.

I look back to the scandals of the past, and of course it has always existed. Most scandals were relatively tame by modern standards (in fact, in most cases it was likely an MP was caught having an affair than pocketing millions). Now it seems that all politicians have found, legal but somewhat immoral, ways to profit and do so right under our noses - holding the electorate in contempt. Even Blair, who everyone now cites as a war criminal did actually get a lot of support for the war at the time (conveniently, people have since pretended they were against it, just as one day they'll all pretend not to have supported Boris, the Tories or Brexit).

Even Margaret Thatcher might seem preferable today, and I have no doubt we'd never have caved in to the far right and allowed Brexit to happen.

 

[Acfb]

I think as time goes on, we'd all tolerate some of the PMs before that were hated on for various reasons.

I look back to the scandals of the past, and of course it has always existed. Most scandals were relatively tame by modern standards (in fact, in most cases it was likely an MP was caught having an affair than pocketing millions). Now it seems that all politicians have found, legal but somewhat immoral, ways to profit and do so right under our noses - holding the electorate in contempt. Even Blair, who everyone now cites as a war criminal did actually get a lot of support for the war at the time (conveniently, people have since pretended they were against it, just as one day they'll all pretend not to have supported Boris, the Tories or Brexit).

Even Margaret Thatcher might seem preferable today, and I have no doubt we'd never have caved in to the far right and allowed Brexit to happen.

Issue with Blair is more his immoral money making endeavours and general behaviour since leaving office. It's also the rewriting of the 2005-07 period with New Labour (rather just than the Iraq war per se) which really annoys me. David Cameron is arguably similar. Gordon Brown has conducted himself far better since leaving office (even if his comments on Scotland are cringeworthy/ineffectual) and I wouldn't even begrudge him keeping more of the money he's made from speeches for himself.

 

[jon0844]

I do think the role of PM is as much about setting yourself up for post-PM life than actually worrying about running a country. I suspect many PMs just do what they're advised/told to do, with Boris being the most obvious example.

Like Trump, I am sure he has to be coached and guided every step of the way (but still goes off and does stupid things).

One problem for Boris will be that people used to think he was funny, and so tolerated a lot of things because he could shake his messy hair and act a fool, but as said before, now when he does this he won't appear funny. People now think he's laughing at them, and when he loses this magical ability to get away with things with some silly publicity stunt, he loses all power.

 

[Typhoon]

Issue with Blair is more his immoral money making endeavours and general behaviour since leaving office. It's also the rewriting of the 2005-07 period with New Labour (rather just than the Iraq war per se) which really annoys me. David Cameron is arguably similar. Gordon Brown has conducted himself far better since leaving office (even if his comments on Scotland are cringeworthy/ineffectual) and I wouldn't even begrudge him keeping more of the money he's made from speeches for himself.

I think you are right. Brown and Major probably deserve the title 'elder statesmen' while Blair and certainly Cameron don't.

One problem for Boris will be that people used to think he was funny, and so tolerated a lot of things because he could shake his messy hair and act a fool, but as said before, now when he does this he won't appear funny. People now think he's laughing at them, and when he loses this magical ability to get away with things with some silly publicity stunt, he loses all power.

Boris used to be laughing at particular groups - 'bank-robbers', letter-boxes', 'watermelon smiles', 'tank-topped bum boys', 'ill-raised, illiterate, aggressive and illegitimate children', 'excessive predilection for welfarism' - the rest of us found that funny* but now he is laughing at us all. We are not laughing back!

* - yes, I know, massive over exaggeration.

 

[nw1]

I think you are right. Brown and Major probably deserve the title 'elder statesmen' while Blair and certainly Cameron don't.


Boris used to be laughing at particular groups - 'bank-robbers', letter-boxes', 'watermelon smiles', 'tank-topped bum boys', 'ill-raised, illiterate, aggressive and illegitimate children', 'excessive predilection for welfarism' - the rest of us found that funny* but now he is laughing at us all. We are not laughing back!

* - yes, I know, massive over exaggeration.

That's another aspect of Johnson's truly obnoxious behaviour. He made a thing of targeting minority groups, not because he was actually prejudiced against them (I suspect), but because he wished to court the votes of people that were. Just like the fact that he is not a conviction Brexiter, but wished to court the votes of Brexit supporters. That is the cynical and calculating nature of the man. He believes in nothing but his own power.

 

[edwin_m]

I think as time goes on, we'd all tolerate some of the PMs before that were hated on for various reasons.

I look back to the scandals of the past, and of course it has always existed. Most scandals were relatively tame by modern standards (in fact, in most cases it was likely an MP was caught having an affair than pocketing millions). Now it seems that all politicians have found, legal but somewhat immoral, ways to profit and do so right under our noses - holding the electorate in contempt. Even Blair, who everyone now cites as a war criminal did actually get a lot of support for the war at the time (conveniently, people have since pretended they were against it, just as one day they'll all pretend not to have supported Boris, the Tories or Brexit).

Even Margaret Thatcher might seem preferable today, and I have no doubt we'd never have caved in to the far right and allowed Brexit to happen.

Worth remembering that the Tories supported the Iraq war, with only the LibDems and a few from other parties voting against joining it. So if the other party had been in power at the time, this international disaster would still have occurred. As far as I know Blair still doesn't acknowledge this as a mistake, which damages his reputation severely with me and when he does say something I agree with, I just wish he'd shut up because he'll drive people into the opposite camp.

Brexit is a lesser disaster in the sense of killing fewer people, but a bigger one economically. However, it led directly to the election of a Johnson government, whose poor management of the Covid crisis has lead to tens of thousands more people dying than would have if it has been done better.

That's another aspect of Johnson's truly obnoxious behaviour. He made a thing of targeting minority groups, not because he was actually prejudiced against them (I suspect), but because he wished to court the votes of people that were. Just like the fact that he is not a conviction Brexiter, but wished to court the votes of Brexit supporters. That is the cynical and calculating nature of the man. He believes in nothing but Boris.

Despite what people say about politicians, I think they do generally try to do what they think, rightly or wrongly, is best for the country. I can't think of any previous administration that pursued policies that they knew were actively damaging, purely for political gain or personal aggrandisement.

 

[nw1]

Despite what people say about politicians, I think they do generally try to do what they think, rightly or wrongly, is best for the country. I can't think of any previous administration that pursued policies that they knew were actively damaging, purely for political gain or personal aggrandisement.

I would agree here. I didn't like Thatcher - to put it mildly - but I can at least acknowledge that she ran the country according to her own (wrong IMO) political philosophy.

Likewise I disagree profoundly with people like Peter Bone, Christopher Chope, John Redwood and the like about Brexit - indeed these guys have annoyed me quite a bit in recent years - but at least these are conviction politicians who genuinely believe in Brexit. They're not trying to pretend to be something they're not in order to gain votes.

Johnson is very different to, and much worse than, any of the examples above.

 

[Busaholic]

I would agree here. I didn't like Thatcher - to put it mildly - but I can at least acknowledge that she ran the country according to her own (wrong IMO) political philosophy.

Likewise I disagree profoundly with people like Peter Bone, Christopher Chope, John Redwood and the like about Brexit - indeed these guys have annoyed me quite a bit in recent years - but at least these are conviction politicians who genuinely believe in Brexit. They're not trying to pretend to be something they're not in order to gain votes.

Johnson is very different to, and much worse than, any of the examples above.

Hillaire Belloc cautioned to ''keep a-hold of Nurse, for fear of finding something worse''. If, or rather when, the Tories decide to dispense with Johnson, the Tory party's leader electoral system will turn up a replacement probably well to the Right in political terms, whether or not a genuine 'ideologue' or another charlatan. The Dominic Grieve/David Gauke/Heidi Allen faction will never see the light of day again within the party, unfortunately, so if Johnson can cling on long enough for an opposition party to appear to be a credible government it might just be to the long-term benefit of the country.

 

[edwin_m]

I would agree here. I didn't like Thatcher - to put it mildly - but I can at least acknowledge that she ran the country according to her own (wrong IMO) political philosophy.

Likewise I disagree profoundly with people like Peter Bone, Christopher Chope, John Redwood and the like about Brexit - indeed these guys have annoyed me quite a bit in recent years - but at least these are conviction politicians who genuinely believe in Brexit. They're not trying to pretend to be something they're not in order to gain votes.

Johnson is very different to, and much worse than, any of the examples above.

I see what you mean about conviction, but I do draw the line at Brexit. Any politician who takes a view on it should have done some research. If they haven't then they're lazy, if they have and it didn't convince them it's a terrible idea, then they're either very stupid or liars.

 

[AM9]

I see what you mean about conviction, but I do draw the line at Brexit. Any politician who takes a view on it should have done some research. If they haven't then they're lazy, if they have and it didn't convince them it's a terrible idea, then they're either very stupid or liars.

For Johnson and his current acolytes, leaving the EU was the success, - there was no consideration in the impact other thasn to spin the line to persuade enough voters. He's now almost freewheeling until ready for retirement once he's made enough cash to replace the money he had to pay off his ex-wife.

 

[jon0844]

For Johnson and his current acolytes, leaving the EU was the success, - there was no consideration in the impact other thasn to spin the line to persuade enough voters. He's now almost freewheeling until ready for retirement once he's made enough cash to replace the money he had to pay off his ex-wife.

I wonder what the arrangement is with Carrie, as I can't see that being long-term.

 

[Gloster]

Well, he has already had a £97,981 advance for his book on Shakespeare. Not having to pay that back may be one of the reasons he is too busy to run the country.