When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[birchesgreen]

I wonder if he'll be kept on till the Summer so he can "eat" the [insert rude word]-storm after the tax and NI rises.

 

[Ediswan]

With the latest revelations about the May 2020 Garden Party, we must surely be getting to the point where it's no longer tenable for Boris to remain Prime Minister? I think I would now be very surprised if we don't have a Tory leadership contest within the next 6 months.

I wonder how many of the potential candidates have a squeaky clean record on complying with Covid regulations themselves.

 

[bspahh]

I wonder how many of the potential candidates have a squeaky clean record on complying with Covid regulations themselves.

The problem here is not just compliance with the Covid regulations, but how an allegation of non-compliance has been handled, and telling lies to the House of Commons about it.

There was a party in the Department of Education, but after an acknowledgement and an apology it has passed on
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/education-department-christmas-boris-party/ says:

A spokeswoman for the department said: "On December 10 2020 a gathering of colleagues who were already present at the office - and who had worked together throughout the pandemic, as they couldn't work from home - took place in the DfE office building in London at a time when the city was subject to Tier 2 restrictions.

"The gathering was used to thank those staff for their efforts during the pandemic.

"Drinks and snacks were brought by those attending and no outside guests or supporting staff were invited or present.

"While this was work-related, looking back we accept it would have been better not to have gathered in this way at that particular time."

 

[Typhoon]

The problem here is not just compliance with the Covid regulations, but how an allegation of non-compliance has been handled, and telling lies to the House of Commons about it.

There was a party in the Department of Education, but after an acknowledgement and an apology it has passed on

Quite right.

While this was work-related, looking back we accept it would have been better not to have gathered in this way at that particular time.

Its not quite the 's' word but it is at least an acceptance.

Government, that is ministers and senior officials, should be leading by example. Where they don't, they need to accept that they haven't and apologise. I don't know whether it is upthread or elsewhere, there are people writing that it was a long time ago, we should move on. Yes, it was a long time ago so plenty of opportunities to apologise. Few taken. I am rather reluctant to say this but in the scheme of things, Cummings is starting to come out of things quite well - comparatively. At least he tried to justify his actions. Most of the rest deny events happened when it is now perfectly clear that they did.

What Conservative backbenchers need to realise is that this is not only damaging this government and its leaders, but also their party, but also the political system itself. Why should the (wo)man in the street do the right thing, when its leaders blatantly don't?

Interesting opinion piece in the Mail

Sometimes people do things that are so unutterably stupid, so determinedly idiotic, so spectacularly self-sabotaging and counterproductive one is lost for words.

When all you can do is stare, open-mouthed and aghast, at the catastrophe unfolding in front of you.

This is precisely how I feel about this latest ‘partygate’ revelation, an email – there it is, in black and white – from Boris Johnson’s principal private secretary, Martin Reynolds, inviting No 10 staff to a booze-up in the grounds of Downing Street on May 20, 2020.

It makes me want to bang my entire head against the nearest wall in fury and frustration. And, frankly, bang all their stupid heads together while I’m at it.

I don’t need to point out what kind of a state the country was in at the time. We all know, we all remember.

Families divided, businesses on the brink of collapse, children stuck at home, parents juggling work and home-schooling, the elderly locked up in care homes.

There was a kind of insanity in the air, brought about by fear and worry and not knowing what was going to happen next.

I remember a woman in Waitrose screaming at me because I accidentally got too close to her while reaching for some tomatoes.

I would never divulge details or betray confidences (my name is not Dominic Cummings); but one thing I can absolutely say with certainty, hand on heart is this: the Prime Minister and the whole of Government, from ministers to mandarins, worked tirelessly during those months.

That is why I’m so angry. Because they’ve gone and thrown it all away.

All that hard work, all that drive and dedication, all that success in rolling out a world-beating vaccine programme.

It’s all in danger of being swept away by the wave of righteous public anger that is now engulfing them.

No one could be more sympathetic to the impossible situation they faced, no one could be more understanding of the difficulties than I. And yet even I can see no justification whatsoever for this behaviour.

Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Talk about handing the opposition a baseball bat to beat them to death with.

And all for what? A few glasses of warm white wine and some sodding ‘nibbles’.

A policeman in the park came up to me while I rested for a few moments on a bench and bellowed into my ear with his megaphone that if I didn’t get up I could be arrested.

My friend, whose mother died of Covid, was not allowed to see her after she had passed away. His own beloved mother.

An experience shared by countless grieving families. Like many others, he was distraught, inconsolable.

But he still obeyed the rules. We all did.

Rage doesn’t even begin to cover how I feel when I realise that, while all our rights were being stripped away, while people were losing their jobs and sanity, staff at No10 were having cosy little get-togethers ‘to make the most of the lovely weather’.

But it’s not just the injustice of it, the sheer hypocrisy, that makes my blood boil.

It’s the damn stupidity and short-sightedness. It’s the fact that, with one unnecessary act of madness, they have undermined the entire government’s authority.

Look. I spent half my life in lockdown listening to Matt Hancock bellowing down the telephone to my now ex-husband, explaining why if the Government didn’t lock everyone up the bodies would be piling up in the streets.

Every time I walked past his study door I would catch snippets of the Prime Minister talking to the Cabinet via Zoom, working like a dog – and I do mean like a dog – to get the country out of the crisis created by Covid.

They barely slept, they agonised over every decision. The Prime Minister himself practically died, and yet he soldiered on. They all did. Twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week, non-stop.

The author is the former Mrs Gove. While I don't necessarily agree with all the points made, there is real anger there and it does go some way to explain the potential damage that has been done, and could have been remediated a long time ago.

 

[Ediswan]

The problem here is not just compliance with the Covid regulations, but how an allegation of non-compliance has been handled, and telling lies to the House of Commons about it.

Very true. Which is why any potential candidate who does have a skeleton in the cupboard needs to think very carefully how they would respond should it be discovered.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

What Conservative backbenchers need to realise is that this is not only damaging this government and its leaders, but also their party, but also the political system itself. Why should the (wo)man in the street do the right thing, when its leaders blatantly don't?

I think it's a pretty fair bet that most (all?) of them already realize that, and that most of them are currently feeling pretty angry towards Boris. And if any Tory backbenchers are still in any doubt, 'Why should we do the right thing when you guys don't' is a message that they are probably all going to be seeing repeatedly in their in-boxes from constituents this week.

I would say it's also a fair bet that over the next few days, a few more letters of no confidence in the PM will be being delivered to Graham Brady.

 

[Busaholic]

The number of letters going to the 1922 Committee chairman from MPs will reach the appropriate level to begin the unseating of Johnson as P.M. by end of month, I predict. I'll even go as far as choosing the 26th to be the pivotal date.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Telegraph currently leading on a minister claiming that Boris won't resign (live link):

Boris Johnson will not resign, a minister has insisted, as pressure continues to grow over an email inviting more than 100 people to drinks at Downing Street at the height of the first lockdown.

The fact that a minister is even having to make that statement seems rather telling.

 

[brad465]

With the latest revelations about the May 2020 Garden Party, we must surely be getting to the point where it's no longer tenable for Boris to remain Prime Minister? I think I would now be very surprised if we don't have a Tory leadership contest within the next 6 months.

I think the local elections will be a key test for him, but at the same time more of the cost of living crisis needs to happen under Johnson for him to be blamed by the rest of the party in order to try and wipe the slate clean.

The number of letters going to the 1922 Committee chairman from MPs will reach the appropriate level to begin the unseating of Johnson as P.M. by end of month, I predict. I'll even go as far as choosing the 26th to be the pivotal date.

What we have to remember is while only 54 or so letters are needed to trigger a vote, there need to be over 182 Tory MPs to actually vote against him in the subsequent vote. If Johnson survives the vote, not only does he remain PM and party leader, but he's safe for another year, and he might not be as easy to shove through peer pressure as May was.

 

[D6130]

As a concise response to the OP....I think it already has!

 

[MattRat]

As a concise response to the OP....I think it already has!

So wrong in fact Boris did the 'smart' move and didn't increase restrictions. If he had, his party would have kicked him out (Labour would again pass the bill of course). It shows he is becoming somewhat aware of his current situation.

 

[nlogax]

The number of letters going to the 1922 Committee chairman from MPs will reach the appropriate level to begin the unseating of Johnson as P.M. by end of month, I predict. I'll even go as far as choosing the 26th to be the pivotal date.

I don't believe it will. Let's see..but regardless of whether Johnson deserves to stay or not I'm guessing he'll still be here some months from now.

 

[Typhoon]

I don't believe it will. Let's see..but regardless of whether Johnson deserves to stay or not I'm guessing he'll still be here some months from now.

Probably, some potential challengers (for instance, Truss; those who don't want Sunak} won't want a leadership contest before the summer if only for the reason eloquently expressed by @birchesgreen in #871 to which I would add 'fuel price rises'. He isn't responsible for the latter but will still be blamed, its one of the penalties of being in office.

 

[nlogax]

Probably, some potential challengers (for instance, Truss; those who don't want Sunak} won't want a leadership contest before the summer if only for the reason eloquently expressed by @birchesgreen in #871 to which I would add 'fuel price rises'. He isn't responsible for the latter but will still be blamed, its one of the penalties of being in office.

Yes, the forthcoming fiscal unpleasantness will fall heavily on the resident of No.10..no-one will want that poisoned chalice until things have somewhat calmed down. If they do at all!

 

[DerekC]

Yes, the forthcoming fiscal unpleasantness will fall heavily on the resident of No.10..no-one will want that poisoned chalice until things have somewhat calmed down. If they do at all!

Hmm - I wonder if you underestimate the overweening ambition of the potential successors. They will all be asking themselves "Is this the moment? If I don't seize it now I may never get another chance". And of course they all have supreme confidence in their own ability.

 

[brad465]

Oh dear, a major Tory donor isn't happy:

Sort it out or step aside, Tory donor tells Boris Johnson

Telecoms tycoon John Caudwell says revelations about lockdown parties are "disastrous" for Boris Johnson.

www.bbc.co.uk

A major Conservative donor has issued an ultimatum to Boris Johnson over revelations about lockdown parties in Downing Street.
John Caudwell said: "Sort it out, Boris, or step aside and let someone else sort it out so that the Tories aren't wiped out at the next election."
The Phones4U founder donated £500,000 to the Conservatives ahead of the 2019 general election.
He criticised the government's perceived "arrogance and hypocrisy".

Mr Caudwell was one of the Conservative Party's biggest individual donors at the last general election, and has previously given money to pro-Brexit Tory MP Sir Bill Cash.
He told BBC News: "Although I have always obeyed the rules I have never been puritanical about lockdown restrictions so I find it difficult to personally get excited about an outdoor drinks party. But it's the perceived arrogance, hypocrisy and rule breaking that is impossible to justify.
"While the rest of us were striving to follow the ever-changing rules - including myself, even when I deemed them to be excessive at best, nonsensical at worst - those who were setting those rules were, apparently freely and frequently, disregarding them.
"Each one of these new revelations gives greater force to the accusation that areas of the government think it's 'one rule for them, one rule for the rest of us'.
"This is disastrous."

'Socially distanced drinks'​

He added that he was not a "dyed-in-the-wool Tory" and had been critical of the government's economic recovery plans, urging more investment in apprenticeships and renewable energy.
But he added: "I do think the Conservatives are the best party to govern this country, particularly as we look to navigate opportunities post-Brexit.
"Sort it out, Boris, or step aside and let someone else sort it out so that the Tories aren't wiped out at the next election."
The prime minister is under growing pressure from Labour - and anger from some Conservatives - over his alleged attendance at a previously unreported Downing Street party.
It comes after ITV published a leaked email from the PM's principal private secretary, Martin Reynolds, inviting 100 staff to "socially distanced drinks in the No 10 garden" on 20 May 2020.
The invitation for the event, which was organised when strict lockdown rules were still in place, encouraged people to "bring your own booze" and "make the most of the lovely weather".
Witnesses told the BBC the PM and his wife had been among about 30 people who attended the gathering.
But Mr Johnson has declined to say whether he was one of them.
The PM's official spokesman also refused to comment on the claims while the investigation was taking place, but he added that the prime minister retained full confidence in Mr Reynolds.
Senior civil servant Sue Gray is investigating lockdown parties in Downing Street, including the event on 20 May 2020, and is expected to report shortly.

 

[Busaholic]

I don't believe it will. Let's see..but regardless of whether Johnson deserves to stay or not I'm guessing he'll still be here some months from now.

Money talks, and nowhere in this country does money talk louder than in and around the Conservative and Unionist Party. John Caudwell provided a 'donation' of half a million just before the 2019 election, and he's given Johnson an ultimatum. If anything, I'm beginning to think Johnson's leaving will now be known before the 26th of this month.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

One thing that I find strange with all the panicking over the cost of living crisis due to hit peoples' wallets by April is that, severe though the situation will be for many people, it can quite legitimately be blamed almost entirely on the pandemic plus Vladimir Putin (gas supplies), with maybe some element of consequences of Brexit. If the Government had been forcefully making those points for a couple of months and therefore raising the expectation in people's minds that this was going to happen, they could probably have avoided suffering much additional unpopularity when the cost of living stuff hits people: Most people are going to understand that the fallout from a huge pandemic like the one we've just had is likely to hit people's standard of living beyond the Governments' control, and most people can also understand, Putin causing trouble as usual making gas prices rise. Yet the Government haven't made any attempt to prepare people/cover themselves in that regard, which means people are more likely to blame the Tories. That seems to me to suggest Boris really has lost his touch when it comes to campaigning and politics - even setting issues of sleaze aside.

 

[brad465]

One thing that I find strange with all the panicking over the cost of living crisis due to hit peoples' wallets by April is that, severe though the situation will be for many people, it can quite legitimately be blamed almost entirely on the pandemic plus Vladimir Putin (gas supplies), with maybe some element of consequences of Brexit. If the Government had been forcefully making those points for a couple of months and therefore raising the expectation in people's minds that this was going to happen, they could probably have avoided suffering much additional unpopularity when the cost of living stuff hits people: Most people are going to understand that the fallout from a huge pandemic like the one we've just had is likely to hit people's standard of living beyond the Governments' control, and most people can also understand, Putin causing trouble as usual making gas prices rise. Yet the Government haven't made any attempt to prepare people/cover themselves in that regard, which means people are more likely to blame the Tories. That seems to me to suggest Boris really has lost his touch when it comes to campaigning and politics - even setting issues of sleaze aside.

I see where you're coming from, although some have cited the reduction in our gas storage capacity as one problem that worsens the issue for is, and while global issues can't be blamed on our Government if they didn't start it, they can be blamed for not doing everything to mitigate them, whatever the best mitigations are.

Right now Johnson is being weakened/attacked by not announcing anything to help the situation, while Labour and the Lib Dems are announcing suggestions (even if they're not effective or sensible, it puts pressure on the Government to do something, and some Tory backbenchers are supporting opposition ideas). Furthermore, Johnson is telling us cutting VAT on energy isn't happening, which while it can be argued this is negligible, he's being exposed for lying in the Brexit campaign about a genuine benefit of Brexit that he isn't actually delivering.

 

[MattRat]

it can quite legitimately be blamed almost entirely on the pandemic plus Vladimir Putin (gas supplies), with maybe some element of consequences of Brexit. If the Government had been forcefully making those points for a couple of months and therefore raising the expectation in people's minds that this was going to happen, they could probably have avoided suffering much additional unpopularity when the cost of living stuff hits people: Most people are going to understand that the fallout from a huge pandemic like the one we've just had is likely to hit people's standard of living beyond the Governments' control, and most people can also understand, Putin causing trouble as usual making gas prices rise.

Not really. The Government implemented the lockdowns which have caused these problems, so are still to blame. And it's not like they would have been necessary had they just pumped more resources into the NHS. In fact, since they've done the opposite (look it up, it's a national scandal that for some reason has been kept quiet), it made the situation far worse than it had to be.

 

[DerekC]

Not really. The Government implemented the lockdowns which have caused these problems, so are still to blame. And it's not like they would have been necessary had they just pumped more resources into the NHS. In fact, since they've done the opposite (look it up, it's a national scandal that for some reason has been kept quiet), it made the situation far worse than it had to be.

I am far from being an apologist for the government, but only a small part of the cost of living increase can be blamed on lockdowns - and how could they have "pumped more resources into the NHS" once the pandemic was here. The Nightingale Hospitals fiasco demonstrated clearly what common sense suggests - that temporary hospitals can be put up in a couple of weeks, but then there are no nurses and doctors to staff them because that takes years.

 

[MattRat]

I am far from being an apologist for the government, but only a small part of the cost of living increase can be blamed on lockdowns - and how could they have "pumped more resources into the NHS" once the pandemic was here. The Nightingale Hospitals fiasco demonstrated clearly what common sense suggests - that temporary hospitals can be put up in a couple of weeks, but then there are no nurses and doctors to staff them because that takes years.

Say that to all the devastated businesses....

And I suggest you look at the numbers. It's not just about the temporary hospitals, the entire NHS has been massively cut back during the pandemic, to nearly half its capacity of pre pandemic. That has a massive impact on people being able to get health care.

 

[edwin_m]

Say that to all the devastated businesses....

And I suggest you look at the numbers. It's not just about the temporary hospitals, the entire NHS has been massively cut back during the pandemic, to nearly half its capacity of pre pandemic. That has a massive impact on people being able to get health care.

And if you thought lockdown was bad, the economic impact of Brexit will be far worse, according to the official independent forecasting body. It's perhaps understandable that mistakes will be made in responding to a paramedic (though Johnson made more than most) but Brexit is entirely self-inflicted.

Impact of Brexit on economy 'worse than Covid'

The boss of the UK's forecaster says Brexit will be worse for the economy than Covid.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[MattRat]

And if you thought lockdown was bad, the economic impact of Brexit will be far worse, according to the official independent forecasting body. It's perhaps understandable that mistakes will be made in responding to a paramedic (though Johnson made more than most) but Brexit is entirely self-inflicted.

Impact of Brexit on economy 'worse than Covid'

The boss of the UK's forecaster says Brexit will be worse for the economy than Covid.

www.bbc.co.uk

Brexit is a little different since it could have been handled better, whereas lockdowns are either on or off, so to speak, plus the majority supports Brexit, or at least those that voted Conservative do, whereas those same people haven't supported lockdown, so that is the policy they will go after, not Brexit.

 

[brad465]

I am far from being an apologist for the government, but only a small part of the cost of living increase can be blamed on lockdowns - and how could they have "pumped more resources into the NHS" once the pandemic was here. The Nightingale Hospitals fiasco demonstrated clearly what common sense suggests - that temporary hospitals can be put up in a couple of weeks, but then there are no nurses and doctors to staff them because that takes years.

The Bank of England printed money like there was no tomorrow in 2020, and the amount of QE during covid is similar to the amount the Government has borrowed, suggesting they're trying to finance deficit spending - while things haven't got this bad yet, almost all historical hyperinflations were caused by this behaviour. The Bank is also snookered by knowing that putting rates up now beyond a very low threshold will cause a catalogue of crashes and defaults, a sign that they're no longer independent of Government.

"A picture paints 1000 words" best sums up the picture The Telegraph have on their front page tomorrow: Michael Ellis, the Paymaster General, was at the dispatch box trying to defend Johnson. I'd not heard of him before now, and the fact they sent him implies the entire Cabinet and most Junior Ministers were not prepared to defend Johnson or the overall situation. Also in the picture was Peter Bone, with body language that suggests he didn't like what he was hearing:

Tomorrow's Papers Today - UK Front Pages - Latest Newspaper Headlines

All of UK's Tomorrow's Front Pages ✅ Updated Daily between 7PM - 11pm ✅ The Mail, Express, Times, Guardian and many more Proudly supporting #buyapaper

www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk

 

[DynamicSpirit]

That's a pretty telling headline.

The other interesting thing that the Telegraph are pushing is that this party might explain why Boris didn't sack Dominic Cummings when news of the Barnard's Castle trip leaked out a few days later. It's pure speculation, but seems rather plausible that Cummings knew about the party and Boris would have been concerned that if he sacked Cummings, Cummings would have immediately revealed that it had happened. If that is true then it's even more damning, because it would indicate that actual Government decisions were being influenced by the desire to cover up the breaking of Covid rules.

 

[edwin_m]

Brexit is a little different since it could have been handled better, whereas lockdowns are either on or off, so to speak, plus the majority supports Brexit, or at least those that voted Conservative do, whereas those same people haven't supported lockdown, so that is the policy they will go after, not Brexit.

The Brexit we have is a direct consequence of the bad decisions taken by Johnson and others, as well as the lies told by Johnson and others during the campaign. The Tory party may not think that but many swing voters will. I'm not going to get into another debate on the merit of lockdowns.

 

[dgl]

But the Express are still behind him, probably because their prized Brexit is in jepoardy without him.
Some quite stong words in parliament from MP's that have had relatives die alone during the lockdown whilst Boris was partying.

Boris can't just say it's being investigated, it was a party that was held at his residence, how would he not know if there was a party or not.

 

[nw1]

I see where you're coming from, although some have cited the reduction in our gas storage capacity as one problem that worsens the issue for is, and while global issues can't be blamed on our Government if they didn't start it, they can be blamed for not doing everything to mitigate them, whatever the best mitigations are.

Right now Johnson is being weakened/attacked by not announcing anything to help the situation, while Labour and the Lib Dems are announcing suggestions (even if they're not effective or sensible, it puts pressure on the Government to do something, and some Tory backbenchers are supporting opposition ideas). Furthermore, Johnson is telling us cutting VAT on energy isn't happening, which while it can be argued this is negligible, he's being exposed for lying in the Brexit campaign about a genuine benefit of Brexit that he isn't actually delivering.

I do think Labour have performed a big tactical error in criticising the Tories for their restrictions and lockdowns not being 'hard enough'. As suggested above, in the coming months I suspect Covid will be replaced by other, mostly economic, concerns. If Labour had stayed quiet on Government restrictions, not voicing an opinion either way, they would have a bigger stick to beat the Government with and could legitimately claim that economic hardship has been exacerbated by both Brexit and overly-extended lockdowns which went on for too many months and un-necessarily harmed the economy. In this situation, Labour could have been onto a real winner. Unfortunately Labour's approach to restrictions would probably have put us in an economically worse situation.

Best hope for Labour, and those of us who have had enough of the Tories, is that Johnson will be seen by so many as a dishonest and hypocritical joke that the Tories will sink without the help of anyone else. In a post-Covid world, with non-Covid issues the prime concern, Labour are arguably a more natural party of government than the Tories as too many Tories do not 'naturally' care about people who fall upon hard times.

Brexit is a little different since it could have been handled better, whereas lockdowns are either on or off, so to speak, plus the majority supports Brexit, or at least those that voted Conservative do, whereas those same people haven't supported lockdown, so that is the policy they will go after, not Brexit.

Though lockdowns aren't necessarily on or off. They could have implemented shorter lockdowns for the duration where the case numbers were very high, for example. In the original 2020 lockdown for example, many other European countries re-opened hospitality significantly earlier than we did (though in 2021 they were at least as austere as us, it had to be said, some countries shutting down bars and restaurants for 6 whole months). They could also have had softer lockdowns without all the 'criminalisation of drinking a coffee on a park bench' nonsense.

As for Brexit, yes it could indeed have been handled better. Given the tiny majority for Brexit (basically 13 Brexit votes for every 12 Remain) there was absolutely no mandate for the Brexit we got, with no customs union and hardline restrictions on immigration, which the EU have also implemented for us in a tit for tat approach. A soft Brexit of the Norway type would have been acceptable to most I suspect, yet May refused it for some reason and Johnson went even further. The hard Brexit we have is definitely not a reflection of the referendum result; remainers, who got almost half the vote, have been arrogantly been completely ignored by the pair of clowns that comprise the two most recent prime ministers.

 

[Dai Corner]

I do think Labour have performed a big tactical error in criticising the Tories for their restrictions and lockdowns not being 'hard enough'. As suggested above, in the coming months I suspect Covid will be replaced by other, mostly economic, concerns. If Labour had stayed quiet on Government restrictions, not voicing an opinion either way, they would have a bigger stick to beat the Government with and could legitimately claim that economic hardship has been exacerbated by both Brexit and overly-extended lockdowns which went on for too many months and un-necessarily harmed the economy. In this situation, Labour could have been onto a real winner. Unfortunately Labour's approach to restrictions would probably have put us in an economically worse situation.

Labour are in power in Wales and have imposed harsher restrictions than the Tories have in England. I'm not sure the London branch of the Party could have got away with the above.