When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[yorksrob]

Considering you saying that about the microchip factory is the first I've heard about it, I doubt that particular story will have been heard enough to cause outrage. Also a Chinese firm took over British Steel during the 2019 election campaign and didn't really influence the result.

What might do it though on the subject of asset-stripping is all this US equity firm activity taking over our supermarkets. They've already taken over ASDA; Morrisons is imminent, if these supermarkets suddenly see massive sell-offs, poor quality service and maybe even go bust, questions need to be asked about this sort of business practice. Really this kind of activity needs to be made illegal, I reckon if Labour and other opposition parties expose this and propose banning such behaviour they'll hit the Tory support (Labour already seem to be trying to promote "buy British").

I'm inclined to agree actually.

Incidentally the micro-chip company story has been rumbling on in the background on radio 4 for a few months though, but the rapacious activities of private equity firms have also featured (including the Asda takeover most recently).

I feel sure that there's a large chunk of the Tory rank and file who merely tolerate this sort of a "bargain basement" approach (to use Michael Hesletine's phrase) and would welcome a more resistant policy towards international takeovers.

 

[Dai Corner]

I'm inclined to agree actually.

Incidentally the micro-chip company story has been rumbling on in the background on radio 4 for a few months though, but the rapacious activities of private equity firms have also featured (including the Asda takeover most recently).

I feel sure that there's a large chunk of the Tory rank and file who merely tolerate this sort of a "bargain basement" approach (to use Michael Hesletine's phrase) and would welcome a more resistant policy towards international takeovers.

Would a 'more resistant policy towards international takeovers' work both ways; preventing British companies or individuals investing abroad and forcing them to sell their foreign assets?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I live in hope that one day the populace might wake up and see the asset stripping of the country for what it is. That said, I've been waiting for over twenty years.

Without wanting to be too pedantic, asset stripping is when someone buys a company specifically in order to break it down and sell off its assets, rather than in order to run it as an ongoing business. As far as I'm aware, Newport Wafer Fab is being sold to a Chinese company that intends to run it as a going concern: That is not asset stripping. Also, it's a commercial company and it's therefore up to Newport Wafer Fab itself, not up to the Government, to decide whether it wants to sell itself - so it doesn't really make a lot of sense to blame the Tories for selling it. There is an issue that some politicians are arguing that the Government should've blocked the sale on national security grounds. That's a debatable point, but whichever way you feel on that issue, this doesn't seem to be the Tory asset stripping that you're painting it as.

 

[yorksrob]

Would a 'more resistant policy towards international takeovers' work both ways; preventing British companies or individuals investing abroad and forcing them to sell their foreign assets?

Maybe so. But then we've forever been told how much we ought to have everything up for sale to look as though we're "open for business", yet many other western countries such as France and the USA have had a more robust view of foreign takeovers for decades, yet they don't seem to be international pariahs.

Make no mistake, this is all down to UK Establishment ideology.

Without wanting to be too pedantic, asset stripping is when someone buys a company specifically in order to break it down and sell off its assets, rather than in order to run it as an ongoing business. As far as I'm aware, Newport Wafer Fab is being sold to a Chinese company that intends to run it as a going concern: That is not asset stripping. Also, it's a commercial company and it's therefore up to Newport Wafer Fab itself, not up to the Government, to decide whether it wants to sell itself - so it doesn't really make a lot of sense to blame the Tories for selling it. There is an issue that some politicians are arguing that the Government should've blocked the sale on national security grounds. That's a debatable point, but whichever way you feel on that issue, this doesn't seem to be the Tory asset stripping that you're painting it as.

In my opinion, there needs to be a root and branch review of take over policy in this country going beyond national security ground (although those cases are naturally the most urgent).

I would favour a more French approach to ensuring that a broder part of the economy remains domestically controlled.

Anyhow, these are my ramblings. The question is, whether rank and file Tories will continue to stand for it.

 

[Dai Corner]

The question is, whether rank and file Tories will continue to stand for it.

More whether floating voters in marginal constituencies dislike the Conservative manifesto and leadership less than they dislike the alternatives. They're the ones who decide General Elections.

 

[yorksrob]

More whether floating voters in marginal constituencies dislike the Conservative manifesto and leadership less than they dislike the alternatives. They're the ones who decide General Elections.

Well yes. That's the defecit in our democracy. On the plus side, "safe" constituencies seem to be harder to come by these days.

 

[edwin_m]

Well yes. That's the defecit in our democracy. On the plus side, "safe" constituencies seem to be harder to come by these days.

At least partly, that's because a second candidate establishes themselves as a credible place for the most broadly held strand of opinion to place their votes, and thereby lets in a candidate the majority don't want. So in 2019 Labour only held Hartlepool because the Brexit party split what would otherwise have mostly been Tory votes, and in 2021 Galloway came very close to gifting the Conservatives a seat where a big majority would probably have preferred Labour. FPTP really does have a lot to answer for.

 

[yorksrob]

At least partly, that's because a second candidate establishes themselves as a credible place for the most broadly held strand of opinion to place their votes, and thereby lets in a candidate the majority don't want. So in 2019 Labour only held Hartlepool because the Brexit party split what would otherwise have mostly been Tory votes, and in 2021 Galloway came very close to gifting the Conservatives a seat where a big majority would probably have preferred Labour. FPTP really does have a lot to answer for.

Yes, I'm certainly not against reform of it.

 

[brad465]

At least partly, that's because a second candidate establishes themselves as a credible place for the most broadly held strand of opinion to place their votes, and thereby lets in a candidate the majority don't want. So in 2019 Labour only held Hartlepool because the Brexit party split what would otherwise have mostly been Tory votes, and in 2021 Galloway came very close to gifting the Conservatives a seat where a big majority would probably have preferred Labour. FPTP really does have a lot to answer for.

Actually I think it's possible Galloway took away some potential Tory voters, especially ones who voted for the well ranking independent candidate in 2019, so that may have backfired on his part. Had all of Galloway's votes gone to Labour they would have got 57% of the vote, which was never going to happen given the 2019 result.

 

[Senex]

Yes, I'm certainly not against reform of it.

But nothing's going to change as long as (a) the Tories see it as their ticket to enduring power and (b) Labour sees it as a matter of principle not in enter into any electoral pacts, with the result that there can be no end to the vote-splitting of the anti-Tory vote of the centre/moderate left.

 

[yorksrob]

But nothing's going to change as long as (a) the Tories see it as their ticket to enduring power and (b) Labour sees it as a matter of principle not in enter into any electoral pacts, with the result that there can be no end to the vote-splitting of the anti-Tory vote of the centre/moderate left.

That's the problem. We'll end up a husk of a country.

Thank God our vaccine development capability wasn't part of the private sector, otherwise it would have been flogged off years ago.

 

[tbtc]

Perhaps the sale of one of the UK's leading microchip developers, Newport Wafer Fab to a foreign competitor, in spite of its importance in defence and communications technology, might help to undo the conservative party.

I've never understood how the supposed party of Queen and Country has been allowed to get away with being a sort of Flash Harry, party of the spivs, allowing the sell off of Britains assets and companies to any Tom, Dick and Harry. Perhaps they might be forced to choose between being a party of Britain, ot being the party of "the market".

It was always thus - see Heseltine/ Westland in the 1980s - a "protectionist" approach versus the free market

The Tories have always had this dichotomy - but they keep winning elections which means that the "losing" side of the Tory party is still on board (since they'd rather have the "wrong" type of Tory than allow a Corbyn to get through)

Trouble is, there aren't enough 'true socialist' voters to elect a 'true socialist' Government

You know that

I know that

But the "true socialists" don't realise, or forget, or pretend... possibly because if you've spent your days tweeting "solidarity" to fellow left wingers who share your entire outlook then you'll assume that everyone else is like this

The electorate seem to like free markets.

Well they like the good bits, they arn't so keen when the free market decides their jobs are no longer required just because the company isn't making quite enough billions in profit.

Labour's challenge has always been to show the electorate that the markets aren't working (or aren't as "free" as the economic textbooks would suggest) - e.g. show how some companies distort the market, how other people don't get a fair share - much better to do that than try to persuade the electorate of your magical far left "solution" (which the electorate seem to have no appetite for)

 

[yorksrob]

It was always thus - see Heseltine/ Westland in the 1980s - a "protectionist" approach versus the free market

The Tories have always had this dichotomy - but they keep winning elections which means that the "losing" side of the Tory party is still on board (since they'd rather have the "wrong" type of Tory than allow a Corbyn to get through)

I must admit, as a bit of a left of centrist, I wish the Tory patriots would grow some protectionist, no that doesn't work. Some strategically patriotic balls for a change.

 

[ainsworth74]

I was reading Politico's London Playbook today and there was an interesting tidbit in it which perhaps might suggest when it will all go wrong for Johnson and the Tories (well, in the medium/long term anyway):

War on the young: A 30-something Tory MP hit on something that has the potential to be a bit of a theme: “We started the day with a crazy experiment seeing how many young people could catch COVID in a nightclub, by the evening we were threatening them with vaccine passports if they don’t get jabbed, then at close of play we’ve hit them with a tax rise. It is all starting to look like a war on the young.”

POLITICO London Playbook: Contact tracing service — Passport control — Tory tax bombshell

What's driving the day in Westminster. Politics and policymaking in the UK capital.

www.politico.eu

I wonder if the problem that will eventually be their undoing is alienating a large proportion of younger voters who may not grow up and switch allegiance to the Tories as previous generations have done so? I seem to recall that polling after the last two General Elections indicated that a plurality of under-50s voted for parties other than the Tories whilst over-50s voted for the Tories (with the divide becoming more extreme the older or younger you looked i.e. in the over 70s it might be 75% Tory and in the 18-24s it might be 75% Labour). I wonder if that tipping point age has increased in recent years? Which might be a problem if more and more of todays 20 and 30 somethings don't switch allegiance.

After all what's the pitch to win them over? From the above quote it looks like we're getting dinged again to pick up the tab for older people (you stop paying NI once you reach State Pension age even if you continue to work). Benefits for working age people have been slashed to to bone whilst benefits for pensioners have been fairly well protected. We locked down because older people were dying in their thousands and young people, particularly school children, have born the brunt of that. Many young people feel locked out of the housing market unless they can rely on mum & dad to help them get their first foot on the ladder.*

So where's the pitch to make a young person today want to vote Tory when they reach 40 or 50 or 60? Is this perhaps the problem they're storing up for themselves that will be their eventual undoing?

*Yes there's a fair few generalisations in there.

 

[XAM2175]

So where's the pitch to make a young person today want to vote Tory when they reach 40 or 50 or 60? Is this perhaps the problem they're storing up for themselves that will be their eventual undoing?

I wonder if they're perhaps getting hold of some voters earlier now, on cultural topics more than economic. I seem to recall we have at least two or three posters here who are in their early twenties - and earlier - who have been open about Conservative voters along those lines.

 

[DarloRich]

It will be hubris like we saw this weekend that will do for Johnson. He will also suffer if "FREEDOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Day" doesn't work and we slide back into lockdown.

 

[WelshBluebird]

So where's the pitch to make a young person today want to vote Tory when they reach 40 or 50 or 60?

That's a really good question.
The general reason you see the trend of someone voting Tory as they got older isn't really to do with age, its to do with what historically people have achieved as they grow older. Things like building a stable career, buying a house, starting a family etc. Things like make you invested in keeping the status quo so to speak.
But these days, for a lot of people, those things just don't happen. Or if they do they happen at a much older age than what they did for their parents and grandparents.

 

[DarloRich]

That's a really good question.
The general reason you see the trend of someone voting Tory as they got older isn't really to do with age, its to do with what historically people have achieved as they grow older. Things like building a stable career, buying a house, starting a family etc. Things like make you invested in keeping the status quo so to speak.
But these days, for a lot of people, those things just don't happen. Or if they do they happen at a much older age than what they did for their parents and grandparents.

But surely the Johnsonian party has abandoned Conservatism in favour of English Nationalism/Vote Leave. His party doesn't look like any previous Conservative party.

 

[Dai Corner]

But surely the Johnsonian party has abandoned Conservatism in favour of English Nationalism/Vote Leave. His party doesn't look like any previous Conservative party.

British nationalism rather than English. The Conservative and Unionist Party is the only major unionist Party in Welsh (or Scottish?) politics.

An English Nationalist Party might become a threat should people in England start to realise that it costs England more to be in the UK than it did to be in the EU and want to leave.

 

[WelshBluebird]

British nationalism rather than English. The Conservative and Unionist Party is the only major unionist Party in Welsh (or Scottish?) politics.

An English Nationalist Party might become a threat should people in England start to realise that it costs England more to be in the UK than it did to be in the EU and want to leave.

I'm not sure I agree anymore. The Tory party seem to be doing everything they can to royally pee off the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish. They really don't seem to be an actual unionist party in the true sense of the word (wanting to preserve the union).

 

[Dai Corner]

I'm not sure I agree anymore. The Tory party seem to be doing everything they can to royally pee off the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish. They really don't seem to be an actual unionist party in the true sense of the word (wanting to preserve the union).

I can only really comment on the Welsh situation as I live there.

The Welsh Conservatives just had their best ever Welsh Parliamentary election results and Wales is the only nation firmly in favour of remaining in the UK. They may pee off the Welsh Government, I'll grant you that , but many of us have little faith in it anyway.

 

[edwin_m]

I can only really comment on the Welsh situation as I live there.

The Welsh Conservatives just had their best ever Welsh Parliamentary election results and Wales is the only nation firmly in favour of remaining in the UK.

There could be quite a number of factors in play here, just as in Scotland where the Conservatives have made some gains, probably because of those who support the Union abandoning Labour. The Trumpian tactic of ruling for your base can succeed in getting you into power, especially in a FPTP system, but sooner or later will come unstuck because enough of the base gets disillusioned or simply dies off, and your party is then toxic to the rest of the electorate. That's unless you manage to further damage the machinery of democracy enough to deny a fair election next time round.

 

[WelshBluebird]

I can only really comment on the Welsh situation as I live there.

The Welsh Conservatives just had their best ever Welsh Parliamentary election results and Wales is the only nation firmly in favour of remaining in the UK. They may pee off the Welsh Government, I'll grant you that , but many of us have little faith in it anyway.

I can only go on what I see now living in England and my friends who still live back home, but it is worth saying I do keep quite a close eye and lets say nobody I know who does still live in Wales is impressed with Westminster putting a huge union jack on the new HMRC building in Cardiff city centre - and if anything it feels like it is being done just to antagonise people.

I do feel like there is a bit of a disconnect there with how people see the Welsh conservatives and the Westminster party (in the same way there is with Labour tbh - e.g. despite what you have said about the Welsh government, Welsh Labour actually gained both vote share and seats in the recent elections despite the Westminster party struggling in English local elections).

 

[Dai Corner]

I can just go on what I see now living in England and my friends who still live back home. But lets say nobody I know who does still live in Wales is impressed with Westminster putting a huge union jack on the new HMRC building in Cardiff city centre - and if anything it feels like it is being done just to antagonise people.

Do they similarly object to the EU logo being on all the projects they've funded in Wales? I don't think the EU had an office in Wales to put a huge flag on.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Do they similarly object to the EU logo being on all the projects they've funded in Wales? I don't think the EU had an office in Wales to put a huge flag on.

it feels a little different here though, especially as the EU logo was usually just a small logo on a plaque or similar. Bit different to a massive multi story union flag.
And the perceived reasoning is also different. Had the EU gone around sticking its logo everywhere after the Brexit referendum was announced as a thing, I'd maybe agree with you. But it really feels the only reason Westminster is putting the huge union flags around in both Wales and Scotland is to either stamp its authority on places that it feels are starting to drift too far away, or annoy those who want independent nations (or if not full independence, want to be less controlled by Westminster) - neither reasons are good ones.

 

[Dai Corner]

it feels a little different here though, especially as the EU logo was usually just a small logo on a plaque or similar. Bit different to a massive multi story union flag.
And the perceived reasoning is also different. Had the EU gone around sticking its logo everywhere after the Brexit referendum was announced as a thing, I'd maybe agree with you. But it really feels the only reason Westminster is putting the huge union flags around in both Wales and Scotland is to either stamp its authority on places that it feels are starting to drift too far away, or annoy those who want independent nations (or if not full independence, want to be less controlled by Westminster) - neither reasons are good ones.

Like I said, the EU didn't even have an office block in Wales to put a giant flag on.

Personally, being both English and Welsh by parentage, birth and residence and identifying as British, I'm all for the UK Government reminding us what they do in Wales whether it's collecting taxes, paying pensions and benefits or funding the police, Defence and other services.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Like I said, the EU didn't even have an office block in Wales to put a giant flag on.

Personally, being both English and Welsh by parentage, birth and residence and identifying as British, I'm all for the UK Government reminding us what they do in Wales whether it's collecting taxes, paying pensions and benefits or funding the police, Defence and other services.

Does putting a giant flag there remind people what Westminster does? I doubt it!

Another example - for some offices in Wales and Scotland they spent tens of thousands of pounds adding "UK government" branding but they decided not to bother in England. Sure not much in terms of government budgets - but I can't help but question why they did it in Wales and Scotland but not England, and regardless of politics - wouldn't it have been nice to have seen that money maybe be spent on the local communities to those offices instead!

 

[Dai Corner]

Does putting a giant flag there remind people what Westminster does? I doubt it!

Well, it's registered with you and your friends that it's the HMRC building where the tax collectors work.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Well, it's registered with you and your friends that it's the HMRC building where the tax collectors work.

Actually it doesn't - a giant union flag says nothing about what the building is used for. The news did that. But a much simpler, cheaper and less antagonistic sign on the building saying HMRC would tell people what the building is used for.

 

[Dai Corner]

Actually it doesn't - a giant union flag says nothing about what the building is used for. The news did that. But a much simpler, cheaper and less antagonistic sign on the building saying HMRC would tell people what the building is used for.

Would it have made the News or been remembered without the flag though?

Actually, I agree that it's a bit over the top but do think UK Government projects and assets should be as prominently signed as Welsh Government or EU ones.