When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[birchesgreen]

Well its in the Mail as well if thats more your cup of tea.

 

[nw1]

Well its in the Mail as well if thats more your cup of tea.

Not wanting to defend the Tory MP if the allegations are indeed true, but... that also begins with "Daily".

 

[Typhoon]

Not wanting to defend the Tory MP if the allegations are indeed true, but... that also begins with "Daily".

Too true. As do 'Express' and 'Telegraph', two other papers I treat with scepticism.

These are serious accusations. If they are true, we will doubtless find out in time. My concern is that someone will be named and shamed because they were not in Parliament last week for an entirely different reason than being told to stay away. All fifty odd accusations need to be investigated, there are clearly issues with certain MPs, they should not be in the House, some (more) may deserve to be in jail but it needs to follow a trial by jury, not by media. There are enough decent MPs who want the rotten apples out (including women MPs).

 

[birchesgreen]

I think y'all missing the point, its just yet another scandal to add to the endless dripping tap of sleaze. Anyway lets await next week's one.

 

[jfollows]

These are serious accusations. If they are true, we will doubtless find out in time. My concern is that someone will be named and shamed because they were not in Parliament last week for an entirely different reason than being told to stay away.

I suspect that the vast majority of MPs know who the person arrested is, and I think I do too, thanks to the Internet, although I'm not going to name him here - there are plenty of places where he's been named for anyone who wants to do a bit of searching.

 

[Typhoon]

I think y'all missing the point, its just yet another scandal to add to the endless dripping tap of sleaze. Anyway lets await next week's one.

Oh, I don't disagree with that. I always thought that the Major era (Cash for Questions, Back to Basics - Mellor and Yeo, Aitken) was a low point but the current situation threatens to dwarf that. Major seemed unable to do anything to stop the events, Johnson seems unwilling to do so (as shown by Paterson and only 'Partygate' loser so far didn't even attend one).

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

If all is as bad as most everyone on here feel it is, taking England as an example, why did the Labour Party make so few aggregate seat gains in the recent local elections? It is the people having their chance to voice their opinions at such times.

 

[MattRat]

If all is as bad as most everyone on here feel it is, taking England as an example, why did the Labour Party make so few aggregate seat gains in the recent local elections? It is the people having their chance to voice their opinions at such times.

They voted Lib Dems, but some people ignore that because it could destroy the 'them vs us' party system.

 

[Busaholic]

Big IF.

Later on in the piece it states


However, sooner of later, the name will come out in the media and his career will be trashed whether guilty or innocent.

When someone I trust prints it, I might believe it but that someone won't begin with 'Daily'.

Wouldn't it be easier to list all the male MPs not currently under investigation?

 

[Typhoon]

They voted Lib Dems, but some people ignore that because it could destroy the 'them vs us' party system.

Quite right - also some voted Green. Some may have followed the advice of the Party Politicals and voted on local issues rather national ones. Most stayed at home as they always do for local elections.

 

[MattRat]

Quite right - also some voted Green. Some may have followed the advice of the Party Politicals and voted on local issues rather national ones. Most stayed at home as they always do for local elections.

I admit I might be a little biased. I like to see Lib Dems doing well and highlight it because I want to see them upset the balance of power.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Some may have followed the advice of the Party Politicals and voted on local issues rather national ones.

Isn't that what casting your vote on your perceived vision of what your local council has met the wishes of the local electorate in local elections is supposed to be all about? Was what occurred in Hull a case of a council being seen by its local electorate as not being good enough dealing with local issues?

 

[Typhoon]

Isn't that what casting your vote on your perceived vision of what your local council has met the wishes of the local electorate in local elections is supposed to be all about? Was what occurred in Hull a case of a council being seen by its local electorate as not being good enough dealing with local issues?

You are right. That is why the Conservative vote held up to some extent. My issue is with this Prime Minister and (some) members of his cabinet. Maybe I am wrong but in #2587, you asked why Labour didn't make more gains. Part of the reason is that some Labour councils are rubbish, stuck in an ideological backwater (I'm reminded of the Kinnock speech), just as some Conservative ones are. Some Labour Councils are OK (or better) and that is where they will have made gains. It had nothing to do with Johnson but, in my eyes, he is the problem, not the party.

It will take me a long time to forget Aaron Bell's speech in the House ('Does the Prime Minister think I am a fool?). There will be dozens more like him, extolling the virtues of the PM even when things didn't look good (no initial quarantine for those arriving in the country, late with first lockdown, discharging untested residents back to care homes, PPE contracts for those without experience of providing it - when those that have were ignored, etc). Their loyalty was 'rewarded' by finding that all the restrictions that they had defended did not seem to apply in SW1A 2AA. The PM sets the tone, he did nothing about bullying, he did nothing about staff behaviour at No. 10. He may not have known everything that was going on but surely Wilfred's broken swing, stains on the carpet, the odd empty wine bottle, a discarded paper in the waste paper basket gave him some idea, it wouldn't require the skills of Hercule Poirot to recognise that something amiss was going on - if he could be bothered. I'm sorry if this is a repeat but his ideal job would be President (in the way that Ireland has one), touring this country and others, shaking hands, making speeches, telling some of his stories; diving into the No 10 dressing up box ready for a few photo ops; nodding his head sagely from time to time. But we don't need one.
The Conservative Party deserves better; Parliament deserves better; the country deserves better but until fifty of so MPs put their letter in to the 1922, nothing will get better. And you can bet any of those under suspicion would prefer Johnson in situ, not because he condones their action but because it is quite likely he will do very little about it.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

If all is as bad as most everyone on here feel it is, taking England as an example, why did the Labour Party make so few aggregate seat gains in the recent local elections? It is the people having their chance to voice their opinions at such times.

What you have to look at is the Tories lost over 1300 seats in the 2019 local elections and then added to that deficit with another 500 seats in the recent local elections. Those seats have gone to other parties but largely liberals and greens and herein lies the rub that will keep the Tories in power unless the opposition parties work together.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

What you have to look at is the Tories lost over 1300 seats in the 2019 local elections and then added to that deficit with another 500 seats in the recent local elections. Those seats have gone to other parties but largely liberals and greens and herein lies the rub that will keep the Tories in power unless the opposition parties work together.

Still a very strange matter in that the Labour Party, despite divesting itself from the Corbyn/Momentum connections and having had a new leader in Starmer and being the accepted main opposition political party, with the Conservatives losing the number of seats over the last two local elections that you state above, why was it in England that the Labour Party were not the main recipients of the stated lack of popularity of the Conservatives with the electorate who cast their votes and the reasons why that did not occur?

 

[brad465]

Still a very strange matter in that the Labour Party, despite divesting itself from the Corbyn/Momentum connections and having had a new leader in Starmer and being the accepted main opposition political party, with the Conservatives losing the number of seats over the last two local elections that you state above, why was it in England that the Labour Party were not the main recipients of the stated lack of popularity of the Conservatives with the electorate who cast their votes and the reasons why that did not occur?

Maybe many voters have had enough of the two main parties and want to vote elsewhere if they believe this will deliver. We saw a similar situation with the rise (and fall) of UKIP, which caused the Tory party to shift further towards UKIP alignment to avoid losing too many votes, knowing that their more moderate support would still prefer them over Corbyn's Labour. While it seems common for voters to directly switch from Tory-Labour and vice versa, the Lib Dems are arguably aligned in the middle of the two, and there have been voters recently, including in 2 Lib Dem by-election victories in this Parliament, who have had enough of the Tories for whatever reason, but probably haven't shifted left enough to get beyond Lib Dem alignment.

Anyways, in a multi-party democracy voters should be able to vote/support whoever best fits their views and just because there are 2 large parties doesn't mean every voter in one has to go to the other. Unfortunately our voting system forces many voters to vote for what they least oppose, not what they most want, often seeing Tory and Labour getting a lot of votes from people who are not really strong followers. This would also explain why a number of Tory losses have not translated into a number of Labour gains, as in council elections, the higher number of seats and smaller populations in each one compared to General Elections allows smaller parties to fare better, despite the same voting system.

 

[DelayRepay]

This would also explain why a number of Tory losses have not translated into a number of Labour gains, as in council elections, the higher number of seats and smaller populations in each one compared to General Elections allows smaller parties to fare better, despite the same voting system.

As an example, my local council area is split into two parliamentary constituencies (jointly they cover the exact same area as the local council). Both have returned Conservative MPs pretty much for ever, with the exception of 1997 when both went Labour. Yet the Conservatives have not had a majority on the council since 1982. The current council is a Labour/Lib Dem coalition. This demonstrates the need for caution when trying to predict national election results based on the outcome of council elections.

 

[The Ham]

As an example, my local council area is split into two parliamentary constituencies (jointly they cover the exact same area as the local council). Both have returned Conservative MPs pretty much for ever, with the exception of 1997 when both went Labour. Yet the Conservatives have not had a majority on the council since 1982. The current council is a Labour/Lib Dem coalition. This demonstrates the need for caution when trying to predict national election results based on the outcome of council elections.

I live somewhere where locally Lib Dems do well but nationally it's a very safe Tory seat.

Having said that the Lib Dems gained quite a few votes last election and with the ward I live in (which has always voted Tory locally) it was a case that if the few hundred who voted Labour had voted Lib Dems the majority would have been the same but not for the Tories as it was fairly tight.

I suspect that at the next national elections there'll be more of a swing towards the Lib Dems, whether it'll be enough to win is another matter. However the local elections do indicate a trend away from the Tories which had already been seen at the General Election and so it could continue at the next General Election.

I suspect that feat of Labour is a factor, however there's the possibility that there's a fear that 5 more years of Boris might be worse.

At least in coalition the Lib Dems moderated the Tories and could probably do the same to Labour (although there's probably a fair few on lower incomes, which may even be those on a little above average pay, who are starting to think that something that helps them a bit more and is less concerned about upsetting the very rich is probably a good thing).

 

[DelayRepay]

Having said that the Lib Dems gained quite a few votes last election and with the ward I live in (which has always voted Tory locally) it was a case that if the few hundred who voted Labour had voted Lib Dems the majority would have been the same but not for the Tories as it was fairly tight.

My ward (as opposed to the whole borough) has always been Tory. This time round the Lib Dems seem to have picked up quite a few votes at the expense of the Conservatives, but not enough to do them any damage. This may in part be because the long-standing Conservative councillor, who is well known locally as a decent chap, decided not to stand for re-election.

 

[Yew]

I very much doubt many people truly like him, bar anyone who he paid off.

He was the lesser of 'two evils' compared to Labour, and whether you agree with that or not, it speaks volumes that Labour is seen as worse than the Conservatives, and could still find a way to lose the next election.

Until we have a credible opposition, he'll likely (or at least the Conservatives will likely) stay.

Is this the same Labour Party that in 2017 achieved it's second highest share of the vote (40%) in history?

Having said that the Lib Dems gained quite a few votes last election and with the ward I live in (which has always voted Tory locally) it was a case that if the few hundred who voted Labour had voted Lib Dems the majority would have been the same but not for the Tories as it was fairly tight.

If only there was some sort of system where that could happen automatically in the voting system.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Is this the same Labour Party that in 2017 achieved it's second highest share of the vote (40%) in history?

Yet were still unable to form a Labour government.

Have you conveniently forgotten there was another General Election held after that one in which the Labour Party only managed a total of 202 seats, the lowest number since the General Election of 1935.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Is this the same Labour Party that in 2017 achieved it's second highest share of the vote (40%) in history?

40.0% was a good result for Labour, but definitely not it's 2nd highest share in history. As I recall, Labour got well above 40% in every election between 1945 and 1970, and also in 1997 and 2001. It was the highest vote share Labour has ever achieved since 2001 though.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

40.0% was a good result for Labour, but definitely not it's 2nd highest share in history. As I recall, Labour got well above 40% in every election between 1945 and 1970, and also in 1997 and 2001. It was the highest vote share Labour has ever achieved since 2001 though.

What was the Labour Party share of the vote in the last General Election?

 

[nw1]

I live somewhere where locally Lib Dems do well but nationally it's a very safe Tory seat.

Having said that the Lib Dems gained quite a few votes last election and with the ward I live in (which has always voted Tory locally) it was a case that if the few hundred who voted Labour had voted Lib Dems the majority would have been the same but not for the Tories as it was fairly tight.

I suspect that at the next national elections there'll be more of a swing towards the Lib Dems, whether it'll be enough to win is another matter. However the local elections do indicate a trend away from the Tories which had already been seen at the General Election and so it could continue at the next General Election.

I suspect that feat of Labour is a factor, however there's the possibility that there's a fear that 5 more years of Boris might be worse.

At least in coalition the Lib Dems moderated the Tories and could probably do the same to Labour (although there's probably a fair few on lower incomes, which may even be those on a little above average pay, who are starting to think that something that helps them a bit more and is less concerned about upsetting the very rich is probably a good thing).

I do maybe get the impression that more people are picking up on tactical voting, so Labour and the Lib Dems carefully targeting seats next time may well work.

My ward has had only Conservative councillors for a long, long time, I believe - yet this time we got a Lib Dem. This may have been partly due to strong campaigning by the Lib Dem (but the councillor concerned also did the same in previous years, and didn't get in) but also possibly people getting wise to the effects of tactical voting. My ward is a classic example of a ward where the Lib Dem/Lab vote is significantly above that of the Tories - but the Tories have got in, in the past, due to the lack of tactical voting. This time it was a bit different - despite an intensive campaign by the Tory candidate. The Tory banner count was the highest I've ever seen it!

It's also a ward which seems to be swinging away from the Tories in any case due to its demographics. If parliamentary seats similar in nature to this ward swing away from the Tories in the next election we might see the "Blue Wall" start to crumble properly.

 

[DelayRepay]

It's also a ward which seems to be swinging away from the Tories in any case due to its demographics. If parliamentary seats similar in nature to this ward swing away from the Tories in the next election we might see the "Blue Wall" start to crumble properly.

I do wonder, thinking out loud, whether the policies that will be needed to retain the Red Wall seats will lead to loss of some of the Blue Wall seats, probably to the Lib Dems? I can see the Lib Dems, and even the SNP acting as 'king makers' after the next election. We all know what the SNP's price will be, I expect the Lib Dems price will be a referendum on proportional representation in future elections.

 

[jfollows]

What was the Labour Party share of the vote in the last General Election?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election says 32.1%

Although it varies widely across the country, there's a big "independent" thing in Cheshire East at the moment; we didn't vote this month but it's replicated in other places. So drawing national conclusions about a Conservative/Liberal/Labour split is at best flawed because the "independent" thing doesn't currently apply much at general elections - in a couple of places it does of course. So we in Cheshire East now have a Labour/Independent coalition which I'm happy about because I thought the previous Conservative lot were dreadful from top to bottom.
Here in Tatton Labour will always be in second place in a general election, with a reasonable vote, but never enough to beat the "vote for the blue rosette pinned to the donkey" brigade. But in local elections it's not the same.

EDIT In the 2017 general election there were 187 "independent" candidates, collectively winning 1 seat and 0.47% of the vote (https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7979/CBP-7979.pdf). In Tatton, the independent candidate received less than 2% of the valid votes.

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Someone called Simon Clarke MP, apparently Chief Secretary to the Treasury, has tried to imply that "extraordinary pressure" caused people in Downing Street to break the law. He goes on to say "that in no way diminishes the seriousness of what happened" but that's clearly what he's trying to do by saying what he has said.

Do these people realise that they're inhabiting a bubble in Westminster and that a lot of us hold them in contempt for their hypocrisy and entitlement?

Maybe they don't care, if they don't rely on my vote to get re-elected then clearly they don't, but it's a continuing insult to those who obeyed the law rigorously and had real jobs which make the jobs of politicians pale into banality.

=============================

In Cheshire East in 2019 local elections, which is a superset of Tatton I think, "other" candidates gained 19 seats and atround 25% of the vote (https://online.cheshireeast.gov.uk/Elections2019/). "Residents of Wilmslow" alone slightly exceeded 3% and won 4 seats.

 

[DelayRepay]

Someone called Simon Clarke MP, apparently Cheif Secretary to the Treasury, has tried to imply that "extraordinary pressure" caused people in Downing Street to break the law. He goes on to say "that in no way diminishes the seriousness of what happened" but that's clearly what he's trying to do by saying what he has said.

Do these people realise that they're inhabiting a bubble in Westminster and that a lot of us hold them in contempt for their hypocrisy and entitlement?

Maybe they don't care, if they don't rely on my vote to get re-elected then clearly they don't, but it's a continuing insult to those who obeyed the law rigorously and had real jobs which make the jobs of politicians pale into banality.

It's this attempting to defend the indefensible that makes it worse. They may have been under "extraordinary pressure", but so were lots of other people. My friend was under "extraordinary pressure" when his dad died from Covid while his mum was in ICO. But they still stuck to the 'only six people allowed at a funeral' rule.

 

[brad465]

It's this attempting to defend the indefensible that makes it worse. They may have been under "extraordinary pressure", but so were lots of other people. My friend was under "extraordinary pressure" when his dad died from Covid while his mum was in ICO. But they still stuck to the 'only six people allowed at a funeral' rule.

Yes I think had they just come clean, admitted all wrongdoing and accepted associated fines while telling the truth to Parliament then Partygate would have ended a long time ago, and Johnson may even have still been able to hold onto PM with enough remorse and truthfulness. But as you say the covering up/denial is only making it worse and prolonging it, while also sacrificing others to save himself. The problem with Johnsonism is eventually you run out of other people to throw under a bus.

 

[Gloster]

Now, according to The Grauniad, No. 10 is admitting that they initiated the meeting with Sue Gray. There may well be justified reasons for a meeting, but why have they tried to pretend that she requested it? (“Ah, congratulations on your title, Baroness Gray...Oh, sorry, I shouldn’t have said that as I haven’t confirmed it...yet.” Probably a bit unfair...to her.)

 

[dosxuk]

Here we go again - Boris thinks he's gotten away and out come the leakers... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61557064

Boris Johnson has been pictured drinking at an event in Downing Street during lockdown.

ITV News has published four photos, saying they were taken on 13 November 2020 at a leaving do for the PM's director of communications, Lee Cain.